Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

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Liberals won't reform. Far right took over and they're going nowhere. Labor will get enough baggage after 6-9 years and the Liberals will pick a trim 38-year-old as leader.
It’s a pity, but I think you are right. The drys taking over started in that period of opposition before Howard got elected
 

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Jascave

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Sportsbet has my seat $6 for ONP to win.... perhaps Nationals to be reamed at election.
Had a look at the betting market for the Victorian seat of Goldstein (which is where I live), and it has the Coalition on $1.12, Labor is at $6 and the Greens rank outsiders at $41.


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Baltimore Jack

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“While Scott Morrison desperately sprints around the country trying to make up ground, he's already in minority government. He's actually got to win a seat to be back in the game. There are 20 LNP seats under 5%, eight of them are in Queensland” - Kerry O’Brien
 
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Had a look at the betting market for the Victorian seat of Goldstein (which is where I live), and it has the Coalition on $1.12, Labor is at $6 and the Greens rank outsiders at $41.


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Nationals held up well in Victorian election. Maybe a few should be contesting liberal seats here
 

eastfreo75

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Just some thoughts.
1.Negative gearing, Franking credits and the fake news of a death tax will push elderly voters against the Red team.
2. Labor sitting on the fence on the Adani mine will lose votes in Queensland to the Blue team and in Victoria will lose votes to the Green team.
3. The Green Adani car rally will get them more votes down south but at the same time Queenslanders won't like southerners telling them what to do. One nation, Clive Palmer and the Blue team will do well in Qld.
4. The recent terror attacks usually turn people to the Blue team.
5. Bill Shorten is pretty crap when off script and Morrison is much better.
6. Liberals leadership crisis will be a factor.
7. The Blue team lack of message for years will hurt.

For me, it will be a Blue team minority government.
 

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Just some thoughts.
1.Negative gearing, Franking credits and the fake news of a death tax will push elderly voters against the Red team.
2. Labor sitting on the fence on the Adani mine will lose votes in Queensland to the Blue team and in Victoria will lose votes to the Green team.
3. The Green Adani car rally will get them more votes down south but at the same time Queenslanders won't like southerners telling them what to do. One nation, Clive Palmer and the Blue team will do well in Qld.
4. The recent terror attacks usually turn people to the Blue team.
5. Bill Shorten is pretty crap when off script and Morrison is much better.
6. Liberals leadership crisis will be a factor.
7. The Blue team lack of message for years will hurt.

For me, it will be a Blue team minority government.
Almost all correct but add:

Shorten cant explain how his environmental target will be met or what it will cost will push some green (mostly) or blue.

Libs dont have an environmental policy will push many green or red

Result: Small ALP majority in house.of reps but Senate will need Greens + Independents + Centre and they are already planning to block some ALP policies.
 
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Almost all correct but add:

Shorten cant explain how his environmental target will be met or what it will cost will push some green (mostly) or blue.

Libs dont have an environmental policy will push many green or red

Result: Small ALP majority in house.of reps but Senate will need Greens + Independents + Centre and they are already planning to block some ALP policies.
Tony Abbott was elected on the back of a six page brochure outlining a "plan" with a few bullet point ideas and some nice pictures. Do you really think the electorate is that fussy about costings and minutiae of policy? History suggests not.
 

eastfreo75

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Almost all correct but add:

Shorten cant explain how his environmental target will be met or what it will cost will push some green (mostly) or blue.

Libs dont have an environmental policy will push many green or red

Result: Small ALP majority in house.of reps but Senate will need Greens + Independents + Centre and they are already planning to block some ALP policies.
Got a feeling, whoever wins will be blocked by the senate.

The government will need to trend carefully.
 

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Bill Shorten will really need to be on his game next Monday night at the leaders debate in Perth (ie no gaffes or errors), because if Shorten makes a mistake, it could come back to haunt him on May 18, and election night would be more interesting to watch in comparison to the one-sided affair we would’ve been expecting just several months ago.


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Bill Shorten will really need to be on his game next Monday night at the leaders debate in Perth (ie no gaffes or errors), because if Shorten makes a mistake, it could come back to haunt him on May 18, and election night would be more interesting to watch in comparison to the one-sided affair we would’ve been expecting just several months ago.


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And if ScoMo makes a mistake?

See how bias works?
 

Rob R

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Tony Abbott was elected on the back of a six page brochure outlining a "plan" with a few bullet point ideas and some nice pictures. Do you really think the electorate is that fussy about costings and minutiae of policy? History suggests not.
Generally they wouldnt and I think it will only change a small number of votes this time but Abbott never quoted a report as reference and then have the reports author come out and say his policy might cost $60bn like Shorten had happen last week.
 

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Baltimore Jack

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Saw a report that suggests 40% of voters will vote Pre-Poll commencing Monday indicating those voters made up their minds some months ago as to which way they will vote.
In effect the election is already over
 

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Bill Shorten will really need to be on his game next Monday night at the leaders debate in Perth (ie no gaffes or errors), because if Shorten makes a mistake, it could come back to haunt him on May 18, and election night would be more interesting to watch in comparison to the one-sided affair we would’ve been expecting just several months ago.


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The debate is being buried on 7TWO. No one will see it and no one really cares.

I pine for the days when news reported the news. These days every election, regardless of who is in government, there's such a push for a "neck and neck" narrative to keep people watching.

It's not neck and neck.
 

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Got a feeling, whoever wins will be blocked by the senate.

The government will need to trend carefully.
Unlike the Libs, who take the view that "it's my way or the highway" (invariably resulting in the cross-bench choosing the latter option), the ALP have a history of negotiating successfully with the Senate cross-bench. That's why Gillard was actually a very successful PM, getting a lot of legislation through despite having a minority government in the HoR and no control over the Senate.
 
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Generally they wouldnt and I think it will only change a small number of votes this time but Abbott never quoted a report as reference and then have the reports author come out and say his policy might cost $60bn like Shorten had happen last week.
There was plenty of equivalent stuff though. And when he wasn’t repeating his slogans he continually looked to peta for instructions
 

eastfreo75

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Unlike the Libs, who take the view that "it's my way or the highway" (invariably resulting in the cross-bench choosing the latter option), the ALP have a history of negotiating successfully with the Senate cross-bench. That's why Gillard was actually a very successful PM, getting a lot of legislation through despite having a minority government in the HoR and no control over the Senate.
totally.

Abbott didn't speak to the senate before his first budget.

He didn't get his unfair budget measures through but at the same time was left the unpopularity.
 
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Almost all correct but add:

Shorten cant explain how his environmental target will be met or what it will cost will push some green (mostly) or blue.

Libs dont have an environmental policy will push many green or red

Result: Small ALP majority in house.of reps but Senate will need Greens + Independents + Centre and they are already planning to block some ALP policies.
That was Bowen’s point. The more the policies are discussed, the more they have a mandate which should be respected

Back to Keating. He said very publicly if people vote for hewson and the GST, he wouldn’t block it (never mind he wouldn’t be opposition leader in fact) focussed the public on the GST

I’d imagine future opposition leader fryzo is going to be very uncomfortable opposing NEG 2.0. They could be a fractured laughing stock by july
 
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totally.

Abbott didn't speak to the senate before his first budget.

He didn't get his unfair budget measures through but at the same time was left the unpopularity.
He also broke very public election promises. And who can forget his ‘only believe me if it’s written down’ speech. Shorten is a saint in comparison
 

eastfreo75

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Including about 20 policies that have been publicly released and published over the last 18 months

The shifty bastard....but you've got this covered, you've worked out what he is up to
do you work for the Red team?

I can't get out of my mind how he shafted both Rudd and Gilliard.

I get a feeling he is like little finger in the Game of Thrones.

Take the policy to allows causal workers to ask for perm work after a year. The liberals tried it pass it through the senate but labor blocked it. That's politics not policy. Now they champion the idea. Total shifty to me.

He back flipped on Company tax pledge, and boat turn arounds.
 

pjcrows

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do you work for the Red team?

I can't get out of my mind how he shafted both Rudd and Gilliard.

I get a feeling he is like little finger in the Game of Thrones.

Take the policy to allows causal workers to ask for perm work after a year. The liberals tried it pass it through the senate but labor blocked it. That's politics not policy. Now they champion the idea. Total shifty to me.

He back flipped on Company tax pledge, and boat turn arounds.
I'm not really a fan of Shorten, but do you understand politics?
 
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