Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

nobbyiscool

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Just for a bit of fun, say you are the sub-editor of a leading newspaper (ie The Australian). What would be the headline you would use for your Sunday morning edition in case of either a) Labor winning by a massive landslide; b) the Coalition scrapes through to win but becomes a minority government; or c) hung parliament result.


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Might be the first worthwhile contribution you've made to this thread - at least people can have some fun with it!

1) ScoNo!, or maybe Sco-Go

2) ScoMore

3) ScoMo in a photo?
 

Jascave

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My headlines would be of the following-

a) LABOR POWER-Coalition swept from office in Labor landslide
b) COALITION BY A FINGERTIP-The Coalition becomes minority government
c) ALL TIED UP-Hung parliament result in night of high drama


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Rob R

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How come the political parties like Labor and the Coalition like to do their campaign launches in the middle of the day, where they should be copying their US counterparts and have it on in primetime?
Cause the last thing we need is another crappy fake reality show on in prime time?
 

Pessimistic

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811CA2F1-3410-4121-B0E5-E413C1A7B79D.jpeg

This masterpiece (yes Murdoch again)
 
May 30, 2006
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How come the political parties like Labor and the Coalition like to do their campaign launches in the middle of the day, where they should be copying their US counterparts and have it on in primetime?
Would anyone tune in, beyond the few that already watch ABCNews24 or SkyNews anyway? Our elections don't draw the same star-power as a presidential campaign. The commercial FTA networks certainly wouldn't cut into programming for them.
The 6:00 news, without criticism, is still more important to the parties than any benefit from live coverage. Timing on social media platforms is irrelevant, though controlling the message as people settle in for the night might have a tiny value. And most people only follow those they agree with anyway so there is nothing to be won.
 
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Death tax is common sense. Treat it like an income tho, tax it at normal brackets depending on how much it is and what the interiors are earning. Poorer people keep more, richer people pay more.
Inheritance is surely the very definition of unearned income. Perhaps more as a capital gain than an income, but surely unearned income is the first that should be taxed, and taxes have to exist unless we find a better system of governance.
 

Hawk Dork

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I was talking to my accountant a few years ago, he was telling me a story
One of his clients said I will take you for a an interesting outing.
Up the top of Collins St opposite the Melb Club theres a banker from the channel islands who comes in and sorts out your taxes.( he comes in a few times a year)
You go in and the first question asked is Do you work for the tax department ?
Second is do you have a listening/recording device ?
If you lie your evidence is inadmissible, if you tell them that you do you get kicked out.
Inside
You get a bank set up with no "name" and a credit card with the name of your choice so you can spend your untaxed money.
There was also ways of avoiding inheritance tax as the clients who took him had a mother in the UK.
Assets were going to be transferred to the channel islands

Tax for the rich is voluntary
 
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GoldenSky

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Inheritance is surely the very definition of unearned income. Perhaps more as a capital gain than an income, but surely unearned income is the first that should be taxed, and taxes have to exist unless we find a better system of governance.

It's truly appalling to hear other Australians actually wanting death taxes to be re-introduced. The bitterness and envy that seeps just to the surface is actually quite sad.

Why has no revolutionary politician actually submitted a great new idea - people voluntarily pay how much tax they want, in order to access the Government services provided from this point forward? So, all the dopeys wanting to pay millions in inheritance taxes, go right ahead! Volunteer to do so. Tick the box. In return, you get to tick the boxes of what you would like to receive. Old age pension? Tick! (er, most young people have super). Indigenous welfare programs? Tick! (er, the lefties are as white as white can be). New roads and bridges in far flung bogan suburbs, constructed to house the millions of new immigrants brought to this country in recent years? Tick! (er, no thanks!).

And if you say the whole point of taxation is not simply to fund Government services for all, but to actually redistribute income, then surely those who pay high taxes should have the right to very forcefully say they do not want to be a part of it?
 

Generalissimo

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There's a reason no politician would suggest such a thing: it's stupid. All your ideas are stupid.

Under your hypothetical rules, could I refuse to finance tropical hellhole prisons for refugees? Or subsidies for coal plants? Or Liberal MPs' holiday junkets? Or any of the other massive rorts perpetrated by the Coalition government?

...

Thought not.
 

Badesumofu

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How many times have a government lost so many Newspolls (like the Coalition government who have lost their 50th consecutive Newspoll) yet still won the election?


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No Government has ever lost this many consecutive Newspolls. We're deep, and I mean very deep into uncharted waters on that front. It seems 30 is about the most a leader can lose before they cease to be leader. Usually a new leader gets a bump which breaks the streak for the party. That didn't happen with ShoutyMo.

Since Newspoll changed its methodology in 2015 it's been really stable. You don't suddenly see it jump 4 points in random directions. Labor has basically been in an election winning position for 2 years. People's minds are largely made up and it's quite telling that the only time the polls improved for the Coalition in recent memory was over the Christmas break where nothing much was happening. As soon as they started saying things again, the polls have moved back towards Labor.

We're heading towards Labor winning 90 seats. This recent blowup between the Queensland Nats and the Liberals suggests it's going to be every man for himself in terms of the parliamentary party (and the gendered language is well considered here) while the organisational wing is trying to sandbag (as per PVO on Ten yesterday). It's a recipe for an absolute bloodbath.
 
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Ironically the closest the LNP have been in recent times is the day before they got rid of Malcolm

Good analysis Badesumofu , especially the last para, this period of retirement and positioning is a good sign internally they know they are screwed
 

Jascave

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No Government has ever lost this many consecutive Newspolls. We're deep, and I mean very deep into uncharted waters on that front. It seems 30 is about the most a leader can lose before they cease to be leader. Usually a new leader gets a bump which breaks the streak for the party. That didn't happen with ShoutyMo.

Since Newspoll changed its methodology in 2015 it's been really stable. You don't suddenly see it jump 4 points in random directions. Labor has basically been in an election winning position for 2 years. People's minds are largely made up and it's quite telling that the only time the polls improved for the Coalition in recent memory was over the Christmas break where nothing much was happening. As soon as they started saying things again, the polls have moved back towards Labor.

We're heading towards Labor winning 90 seats. This recent blowup between the Queensland Nats and the Liberals suggests it's going to be every man for himself in terms of the parliamentary party (and the gendered language is well considered here) while the organisational wing is trying to sandbag (as per PVO on Ten yesterday). It's a recipe for an absolute bloodbath.

Looks like Antony Green is in for an easy time on election night, seeing the way the Coalition are heading at the moment. The question is just how many seats Labor will actually win, and how will they work out who will be in cabinet, considering the number of cabinet positions is 30.


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Badesumofu

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Looks like Antony Green is in for an easy time on election night, seeing the way the Coalition are heading at the moment. The question is just how many seats Labor will actually win, and how will they work out who will be in cabinet, considering the number of cabinet positions is 30.

Well that will have a lot to do with the factions. Seems Shorten will make a captain's call to bring Kristina Keneally into cabinet which seems reasonable.
 

Jascave

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It looks like we’re in for an interesting night when the election results come through, because not only do we get to see just how much Labor will win by, it’ll also be the end of the Liberal Party as we know it.


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Looks like Antony Green is in for an easy time on election night, seeing the way the Coalition are heading at the moment. The question is just how many seats Labor will actually win, and how will they work out who will be in cabinet, considering the number of cabinet positions is 30.
The big question is whether the ALP can reach the magical 100 seats, giving them a 2/3 majority in the House of Reps?
 

Jascave

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It’ll be interesting to see who will lead the Liberals if the Coalition suffers a big landslide defeat at the hands of Labor. And the possible problem for the new leader is that this Labor team is far more unified and could be in government for 2-3 terms.


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