Predicting premierships for teams - who can actually win a flag?

[Luv_our_club]

When they were young and terrible or just average you could still see the makings of a future flag for some squads and often they then go on to win premierships. The Lions in 1999 were predictable, so was Port Adelaide in 2000, Geelong and St Kilda* in 2002-3, Hawthorn 2005-6.

I think Richmond, WC and WB of recent premiers were less predictable, I didn't see them coming.

Do you have the same instinct about certain teams? And if yes, should the unlikely teams change course now?


The teams I think could win a flag one day on their current trajectory:
Gold Coast
Fremantle (maybe)
Sydney
Port Adelaide (could pinch one this year, but I think it is in their future)
Brisbane (could pinch one this year, but I think it is in their future)


The teams/squads I think are unlikely to ever get there:
GWS
Carlton
WB
Essendon
Melbourne
St Kilda

 

[Johnny Karate]

You can completely transform a team in about 3 years.

Even though some clubs (read: Melbourne) have a special talent for shitting the bed. There’s hope for all clubs.

What would’ve been posted about Gold Coast this time last year?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

You can completely transform a team in about 3 years.

Not from scratch. You need something to work with at the start of that process.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Not from scratch. You need something to work with at the start of that process.

All teams have something to work with even if its not always apparent at the time. Look at Gold Coast, not as bullish about them as the OP but even 12 months can make a hell of a difference.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

All teams have something to work with even if its not always apparent at the time. Look at Gold Coast, not as bullish about them as the OP but even 12 months can make a hell of a difference.

So you cannot completely transform a team in 3 years.

 

[Johnny Karate]

So you cannot completely transform a team in 3 years.

Strong argument

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Strong argument

Do you normally abandon yours so quickly?

 

[sdfc]

So you cannot completely transform a team in 3 years.

Freo transformed from minor premier to 4 wins in one year, so it can be done.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Do you normally abandon yours so quickly?

Example
Melbourne 2013 typical 22
B: Garland - Frawley - Terlich

HB: Tapscott - T McDonald - Grimes (c)

C: M Jones - Viney - Trengove (c)

HF: Sylvia- Watts - Davey

F: Byrnes - Dawes - Howe

R: Gawn - McKenzie - N Jones

I: Dunn - Kent - Nicholson - Toumpas

Melbourne 2016 typical 22
B: Jetta - O McDonald - Frost

HB: Hunt - T McDonald - Wagner

C: Stretch - Viney - vandenBerg

HF: Kent - Watts - Bugg

F: Garlett - Hogan - Kennedy

R: Gawn - Vince - N Jones

I: Brayshaw - Harmes - Oliver - Petracca

6 players remain.

Discourses around the 2013 side would’ve been - “fold”, “lol”, “10 years away from being AFL standard”.

The 2016 edition looks very different and has some kind of future.

If you want to quibble and be pedantic about semantic terms, knock yourself out. The point of the thread/OP was predicting flags. The tenet of my point was things change quickly, it’s possible to turn over your squad quickly so I’m not really sure of the point of a thread derailing tennis match to quibble over semantics.

 

[blckcaviar]

I think if you'd really paid attention to Richmond even pre-2017, you could've seen the possibility. Yeah 2016 it didnt work, but they started to play a certain way. I remember around halfway through 2017 I felt that they were gonna get it, the way they played with that all or nothing pressure

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Example
Melbourne 2013 typical 22
B: Garland - Frawley - Terlich

HB: Tapscott - T McDonald - Grimes (c)

C: M Jones - Viney - Trengove (c)

HF: Sylvia- Watts - Davey

F: Byrnes - Dawes - Howe

R: Gawn - McKenzie - N Jones

I: Dunn - Kent - Nicholson - Toumpas

Melbourne 2016 typical 22
B: Jetta - O McDonald - Frost

HB: Hunt - T McDonald - Wagner

C: Stretch - Viney - vandenBerg

HF: Kent - Watts - Bugg

F: Garlett - Hogan - Kennedy

R: Gawn - Vince - N Jones

I: Brayshaw - Harmes - Oliver - Petracca

6 players remain.

Discourses around the 2013 side would’ve been - “fold”, “lol”, “10 years away from being AFL standard”.

The 2016 edition looks very different and has some kind of future.

If you want to quibble and be pedantic about semantic terms, knock yourself out. The point of the thread/OP was predicting flags. The tenet of my point was things change quickly, it’s possible to turn over your squad quickly so I’m not really sure of the point of a thread derailing tennis match to quibble over semantics.

Not a complete transformation and it doesn't take account of who was already on the list.

My point is simple: complete transformation takes longer than 3 years.

That's got nothing to do with semantics.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Richmond - most recent 100 players

ID	Player	Debut
1069	Edwards, Shane N26	20-Apr-07
1070	King, Jake	20-Apr-07
1071	Kingsley, Kent	26-May-07
1072	Riewoldt, Jack N13	26-May-07
1073	Connors, Daniel	28-Jul-07
1074	Graham, Angus	04-Aug-07
…
1075	McMahon, Jordan	20-Mar-08
1076	Morton, Mitch	06-Apr-08
1077	Cotchin, Trent N2	17-May-08
1078	Cartledge, Tristan	17-Aug-08
…
1079	Browne, Andrew L.	26-Mar-09
1080	Cousins, Ben	26-Mar-09
1081	Hislop, Tom	04-Apr-09
1082	Nahas, Robin	04-Apr-09
1083	Rance, Alex N18	04-Apr-09
1084	Collins, Andrew D.	19-Apr-09
1085	Vickery, Ty	13-Jun-09
1086	Silvester, Jarrod	28-Jun-09
1087	Post, Jayden	04-Jul-09
1088	Thomson, Adam	22-Aug-09
…
1089	Farmer, Mitch	25-Mar-10
1090	Martin, Dustin N3	25-Mar-10
1091	Nason, Ben	25-Mar-10
1092	Roberts, Relton	25-Mar-10
1093	Astbury, David N35	18-Apr-10
1094	Dea, Matt	18-Apr-10
1095	Taylor, Troy	18-Apr-10
1096	Webberley, Jeromey	09-May-10
1097	Griffiths, Ben	29-May-10
1098	Hicks, Robert	01-Aug-10
1099	Gourdis, David	14-Aug-10
1100	O'Reilly, Jamie	14-Aug-10
1101	Grimes, Dylan PSD	29-Aug-10
…
1102	Batchelor, Jake	24-Mar-11
1103	Conca, Reece	24-Mar-11
1104	Grigg, Shaun TRD	24-Mar-11
1105	Helbig, Brad	24-Mar-11
1106	Houli, Bachar PSD	24-Mar-11
1107	Miller, Brad J.	15-Apr-11
…
1108	Ellis, Brandon N15	29-Mar-12
1109	Maric, Addam	29-Mar-12
1110	Maric, Ivan	29-Mar-12
1111	Morris, Steven	29-Mar-12
1112	O'Hanlon, Brett	09-Jun-12
1113	Elton, Todd	30-Jun-12
1114	Derickx, Tom	07-Jul-12
…
1115	Chaplin, Troy	28-Mar-13
1116	Petterd, Ricky	05-Apr-13
1117	Knights, Chris	14-Apr-13
1118	Vlastuin, Nick N9	26-Apr-13
1119	Stephenson, Orren	11-May-13
1120	Lonergan, Sam	25-May-13
1121	Edwards, Aaron	03-Jun-13
1122	Arnot, Matthew	30-Jun-13
1123	McDonough, Matt	17-Aug-13
…
1124	Hampson, Shaun	15-Mar-14
1125	Thomas, Matt	15-Mar-14
1126	Gordon, Nathan	05-Apr-14
1127	Lloyd, Sam	11-Apr-14
1128	Lennon, Ben	17-May-14
1129	Miles, Anthony	08-Jun-14
…
1130	Hunt, Taylor	02-Apr-15
1131	McIntosh, Kamdyn N31	02-Apr-15
1132	Lambert, Kane RD	11-Apr-15
1133	Drummond, Nathan	24-Apr-15
1134	Ellis, Corey	02-May-15
1135	McBean, Liam	17-May-15
1136	Menadue, Connor	17-May-15
…
1137	Rioli, Daniel N15	24-Mar-16
1138	Townsend, Jacob TRD	24-Mar-16
1139	Short, Jayden RD	01-Apr-16
1140	Moore, Andrew	15-Apr-16
1141	Castagna, Jason RD	30-Apr-16
1142	Broad, Nathan N67	25-Jun-16
1143	Markov, Oleg	09-Jul-16
1144	Marcon, Adam	30-Jul-16
1145	Moore, Callum	20-Aug-16
1146	Chol, Mabior	27-Aug-16
…
1147	Butler, Dan N67	23-Mar-17
1148	Caddy, Josh TRD	23-Mar-17
1149	Nankervis, Toby TRD	23-Mar-17
1150	Prestia, Dion TRD	23-Mar-17
1151	Soldo, Ivan RD	06-May-17
1152	Bolton, Shai N29	20-May-17
1153	Stengle, Tyson	01-Jul-17
1154	Graham, Jack N53	20-Aug-17
…
1155	Higgins, Jack	08-Apr-18
1156	Garthwaite, Ryan	17-Jun-18
1157	Baker, Liam RD	28-Jul-18
…
1158	Balta, Noah	21-Mar-19
1159	Lynch, Tom FA	21-Mar-19
1160	Weller, Maverick	21-Mar-19
1161	Stack, Sydney	06-Apr-19
1162	Ross, Jack	13-Apr-19
1163	Coleman-Jones, Callum	25-May-19
1164	Naish, Patrick	07-Jun-19
1165	Eggmolesse-Smith, Derek	06-Jul-19
1166	Pickett, Marlion MSD	28-Sep-19
…
1167	Aarts, Jake	05-Jul-20
1168	Dow, Thomson	27-Aug-20

The planks were in place before Hardwick had coached a game, although it took several years to get the support cast right. The so-called "Moneyball" approach in 2013-14 caused a detour before things came together quickly, with 12 premiership players introduced in 17 months.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Not a complete transformation and it doesn't take account of who was already on the list.

My point is simple: complete transformation takes longer than 3 years.

That's got nothing to do with semantics.

We seem to be hung up on the term ‘complete transformation’ and the time frame ‘3 years’. Semantics.

My point is pretty simple: a lot can change in a relatively short space of time.

 

[Bungeye]

Westernbulldogs are a team that virtually turned it around in a 3 year period. They said goodbye to Ward, Griffen, Lake, Higgins, Cooney and Murphy through injury. Now, if i'm not mistaken all those guys were stars all turned out to be stars of the game.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

We seem to be hung up on the term ‘complete transformation’ and the time frame ‘3 years’. Semantics.

It's "semantics" to refute what you said?

That's a new one.

 

[Johnny Karate]

It's "semantics" to refute what you said?

That's a new one.

How about offering your own opinion on the OP, rather than being a nitpicking, pedantic bore?

Westernbulldogs are a team that virtually turned it around in a 3 year period. They said goodbye to Ward, Griffen, Lake, Higgins, Cooney and Murphy through injury. Now, if i'm not mistaken all those guys were stars all turned out to be stars of the game.

Be careful. There are some posters that might object to you posting terms like “virtually”, “turned it around”, “3 year period”, “stars” and “stars of the game”. Or they’ll take what you say literally and hound you.

I’d suggest you prepare a 3000 word introductory dissertation to define the terms if you don’t want a thread derailing tennis match. Forum pedants don’t really care for subtext, decoding or making a positive contribution to the thread.


Or perhaps just get the ignore button ready?

Back on topic, I agree that things can turn around in a short period of time and it is futile to predict premiers/dynasties too much into the future.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

How about offering your own opinion on the OP, rather than being a nitpicking, pedantic bore?

To recap...

You: You can completely transform a team in about 3 years.
Me: No you can't. It takes longer than that.
You: OMG semantics! Don't be pedantic!

It's not "nitpicking" to disagree with what you said.

As for the OP, the reality is that most sides won't win a flag with their current group.

Be careful. There are some posters that might object to you posting terms like “virtually”, “turned it around”, “3 year period”, “stars” and “stars of the game”. Or they’ll take what you say literally and hound you.

I’d suggest you prepare a 3000 word introductory dissertation to define the terms if you don’t want a thread derailing tennis match. Forum pedants don’t really care for subtext, decoding or making a positive contribution to the thread.

Or perhaps just get the ignore button ready?

Don't be such a crybaby.

 

[Bungeye]

How about offering your own opinion on the OP, rather than being a nitpicking, pedantic bore?


Be careful. There are some posters that might object to you posting terms like “virtually”, “turned it around”, “3 year period”, “stars” and “stars of the game”. Or they’ll take what you say literally and hound you.

I’d suggest you prepare a 3000 word introductory dissertation to define the terms if you don’t want a thread derailing tennis match. Forum pedants don’t really care for subtext, decoding or making a positive contribution to the thread.


Or perhaps just get the ignore button ready?

Back on topic, I agree that things can turn around in a short period of time and it is futile to predict premiers/dynasties too much into the future.

Technically, it will take 3+ pre-seasons, 66+ Afl games over a 3+ year period. When you break it down that, I guess it ain't that complicated. Maybe, some humans on here need to invest in the Afl best seller "The three year rebuild for dummies". Highly recommend at all good or bad book stores.

 

[andon]

The teams in future who will win most premierships are Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Hawthorn.

There will be a few interstate flag winners, but the vast majority will be the 4 MCG resident teams.

They have a 3 goal advantage at the G and it counts big time.

 

[Johnny Karate]

The teams in future who will win most premierships are Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Hawthorn.

There will be a few interstate flag winners, but the vast majority will be the 4 MCG resident teams.

They have a 3 goal advantage at the G and it counts big time.

For the Dees sake I hope you’re right! We’ve only won 16 out of 39 at the G since 2017 but the past does not equal the future!

 

[CarnTheScray]

The teams in future who will win most premierships are Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Hawthorn.

There will be a few interstate flag winners, but the vast majority will be the 4 MCG resident teams.

They have a 3 goal advantage at the G and it counts big time.

MCG advantage means nothing to the truly good teams. Geelong play 5 or less games there in the H&A season yet have won 3 flags in the past 15 years. West Coast have won a flag each decade there and Brisbane won three grannys in a row there.

I find it pointless to predict who win will anyway until its finals time for that year. Anomalies are bound to happen, very few predicted we would win it in '16 yet we did.

 

[CarnTheScray]

People think just because there are so many great teams now that they are all bound to win a flag, which is not entirely correct. There have been many great teams over the years that people thought would get a flag but never did. It's a sliding doors moment, which is why you can never precisely predict.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

The teams in future who will win most premierships are Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Hawthorn.

There will be a few interstate flag winners, but the vast majority will be the 4 MCG resident teams.

They have a 3 goal advantage at the G and it counts big time.

Yeah it's been a massive advantage for the Demons over the last 50-odd years.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

People think just because there are so many great teams now that they are all bound to win a flag, which is not entirely correct. There have been many great teams over the years that people thought would get a flag but never did. It's a sliding doors moment, which is why you can never precisely predict.

Is that you Damo?

 

[HTT]

The teams in future who will win most premierships are Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Hawthorn.

There will be a few interstate flag winners, but the vast majority will be the 4 MCG resident teams.

They have a 3 goal advantage at the G and it counts big time.

Yep that's why Richmond didn't win a flag between 1980 and 2017, Collingwood have won 2 since 1958 and Melbourne haven't won any since 1964.