Predicting the draft order and the West conundrum

[TBOW]

The draft has become impossible to predict not only because of live pick trading but also due to the fact that with every academy or f/s player taken the whole draft order resets with new picks created and others eaten up for points.

Nevertheless I have attempted to map out how the draft may look at that point in time where a likely bid for West will come. I have done this in order to understand what points we may need and what picks we may be able to look at trading to improve our draft haul.

I have tried to find the latest version of the bidding rules but cannot find anything since 2016 so academy and f/s discounts have both been calculated at 20% for picks up to 18 and 197 pts for any pick after.

I have obviously made a lot of assumptions the key one being that Blakey, Thomas, and Quaynor are all nominated before West as well as their rough draft positions. This greatly effects the order of the draft as while each player creates a pick at that point where they are nominated, they each burn 2 or 3 picks further down the order.

Over previous drafts father/son and academy nominations have generally come significantly later in the draft order than what the consensus draft rating of the player pre-draft has been, so the nominated positions I have used for players here are slightly lower than the current semi-consensus from draft watchers.

This reads a bit confusing but hopefully it makes some sense -
Where a player has been nominated a new draft pick has been created bumping the following picks back.
The points needed to match the bid follow the players name - these points are deducted from however many of the clubs following picks are required - these dissolved picks are designated with an X with the points from that pick that contribute to the points total following the club name. All picks following the dissolved pick then move one forward in the order.
Where the final points required to match a nomination bid are obtained any remaining points from that pick are shown in brackets and a new pick is created for that team at the point where that number falls in the draft index.

In the case of West I have created a nominated pick at 24 (which I will discuss further later) but I haven't removed points from our next two picks as the purpose of this exercise was to determine how we might be able to trade those picks up the draft and what points we would then require for West if we do.

 

[TBOW]

So one of the key points of conjecture is who will nominate West. 15-25 seems to be the suggested range however looking at the current draft order I think it is more likely to be at the end of that range.

I think anything before Fremantles pick is too early and while Fremantle may be a risk I think there will be better players available.

I feel like there are enough quality SA draftees available to keep Port and Adelaide occupied at the next two selections which leaves Richmond.

I know these things are not supposed to happen, but we were involved in a trade with Richmond so in the course of our discussions we could have requested that West would be left alone by them. Even if we haven't it is debatable whether West would be of interest to Richmond here.

Brisbane, GWS and West Coast all have academy players that should come up in the second round of the draft so nominating other clubs players may not be the wisest move on their part.

That leaves Adelaide at the start of the second round with a pick that is likely to be 25 after academy picks. This is where I have West nominated, although Melbourne at 27 or GC at 28 is what I am predicting.

Whilst this is a very un-informed analysis of what might happen in regards to Rhylee, I’m sure the club over the course of the past few weeks has had a few off the record chats regarding his potential draft position and will have a pretty solid idea of where that will fall.

If West was to get nominated here we are not far off being able to match that bid solely with the 3rd and 4th rounders we have. Possibly live trading our 3rd rounder back to someone like North or Geelong might even be enough to bump us over the line or we could trade one of our future 3rds from next year to be sure we are covered.

 

[Yojimbo]

Range 10 to 25: Nick Blakey (No shoulders), Isaac Quaynor, Tarryn Thomas, Rhylee West.

Range 25 to 40: Will Kelly, Bailey Scott, Connor McFadyen.

Top ten looks pretty set and I don't rate any of the players requiring bids as being good enough to
warrant a bid that early, but time will tell.

Cannot place the King brothers although I had Max at four and Ben at five and I had three mature
agers in the early to mid twenties, very confused this year.

 

[TBOW]

Factoring in a bid in the 20’s for Rhylee raises the opportunity to try to trade ahead of where that will be.
Live trading may also help with this as discussions can be had at every pick where we think a bid may occur to ‘gauge interest’ and facilitate a trade at the point where it is actually needed.

Some possible trade options might be-

7 + 27 + 32 to Adelaide for 8 + 16 + 73 – Gives us an extra pick ahead of West plus a handful of points for West while Adelaide get a better second round hand to top up their list after getting A graders at 7 and 13.

7 + 27 + 32 (or future 2nd rounder) to GWS for 9 + 11 + 52 – GWS have typically keen to trade up to secure elite talent one of the top 7 might appeal to them more than the 2 players at 9 and 11. They may also be keen to shift some of the many picks they have in this draft to next years.
(27 + future 2nd for 11) or (27 + 2 future thirds for 19 + 52) may also be possible with GWS for this reason.

7 + 27 to Port for 10 + 15 – Could be a live trade if the best player available at 7 does not interest us. Port may be keen to leapfrog Adelaide.

27 + 32 to Richmond for 17 + 64 – Richmond have picks 17, 37 then nothing to 60. They may be interested in splitting 20 for some second rounders. Might take a future pick from us to get it done.

27 + 32 to West Coast for 22 + 61 – Would need to be live to ensure that West was not bid on prior. West Coast are unlikely to have enough points for Academy player Cameron without trading so this could appeal to them.