Prediction - Gold Coast Suns will fold by end of 2022 season.

[Tzatziki_Man]

480 million lost in television rights. Hundreds of millions of dollars lost in memberships, merchandise.

No way to budget, no idea the length of this season postponement.

Marvel Stadium could be sold, clubs could merge, many league insiders expecting the league to lose much of its professionalism with 80% of staff stood down.

The bleeding hasn't started yet, we don't know when it will stop but once the recovery is underway, there will be a few quick ways to bounce back.

Number 1, the AFL purse will need to cut off its endless supply of cash to the expansion sides. Tasmania's hopes for a team fall further behind, Marvel Stadium and other assets will be on the table,

But the quickest and easiest way to stop the bleeding is to end the gold coast suns.

The writing is on the wall.

 

[Dusty0004]

Um no they won’t

 

[BigPond101]

I read in another thread here the Gold Coast NRL team are a basket case even by NRL standards and will be the first to go. In that case the AFL will do whatever it takes to keep the Suns going because they can monopolise the whole city

 

[Altum Volantes]

Or they could stop blowing money on the Women’s League?

 

[Dusty0004]

Or they could stop blowing money on the Women’s League?

That won’t happen either

 

[hoianbulldog]

If the cost of keeping them is greater than the revenue they bring in from tv rights then it may be an option for the afl, although it certainly wont be their desired option.

 

[Power Raid]

480 million lost in television rights. Hundreds of millions of dollars lost in memberships, merchandise.

No way to budget, no idea the length of this season postponement.

Marvel Stadium could be sold, clubs could merge, many league insiders expecting the league to lose much of its professionalism with 80% of staff stood down.

The bleeding hasn't started yet, we don't know when it will stop but once the recovery is underway, there will be a few quick ways to bounce back.

Number 1, the AFL purse will need to cut off its endless supply of cash to the expansion sides. Tasmania's hopes for a team fall further behind, Marvel Stadium and other assets will be on the table,

But the quickest and easiest way to stop the bleeding is to end the gold coast suns.

The writing is on the wall.

whispers are Port is struggling, so your comment re clubs financially beneath Port could be in the firing line.

I dare say though, the back office costs relating to footy will be cut before we see a reduction in the number of sides.

 

[Dusty0004]

A couple of Melbourne clubs will go before any of the interstate clubs. AFL has a perfect set up of 2 in each state meaning there is a game in every participating state every weekend. They’ll keep the status quo of interstate clubs. The woman’s comp won’t go. Some clubs may hand back licences but the comp will remain.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

A few Melbourne clubs would be axed before the Suns.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

If you actually look at the numbers properly, St.Kilda are in serious serious trouble.

 

[Power Raid]

A couple of Melbourne clubs will go before any of the interstate clubs. AFL has a perfect set up of 2 in each state meaning there is a game in every participating state every weekend. They’ll keep the status quo of interstate clubs. The woman’s comp won’t go. Some clubs may hand back licences but the company will remain.

yep

TV needs cheap content that Netflix can't have.

So players wages will reduce but total game time will only increase (more games, even if shorter games). Women's footy is an example of this, being not the greatest spectacle but very cheap per minute content.

 

[Power Raid]

If you actually look at the numbers properly, St.Kilda are in serious serious trouble.

Gold Cost Saints or Gold Cost Kilda

 

[Dusty0004]

yep

TV needs cheap content that Netflix can't have.

So players wages will reduce but total game time will only increase (more games, even if shorter games). Women's footy is an example of this, being not the greatest spectacle but very cheap per minute content.

the exponential growth of the woman’s game especially at grass roots level will ensure it remains

 

[JayJ20]

If the season starts in June, then it'll be fine. If the whole season is cancelled, then Gold Coast and GWS are in trouble. From the others, St Kilda are probably in the worst position. It wasn't long ago that Gil warned St Kilda about their financial position. If they were struggling in 2018, how will they go now?

 

[OniAu]

Gold Cost Saints or Gold Cost Kilda

King brothers to reunite

 

[Tap Tap Tapperoo]

Don’t GWS get even smaller crowds, even though they are top 4? If push came to shove, maybe the merger talks aren’t such a bad call, it sort of works with Sydney and Brisbane. Merge 2 struggling Melbourne clubs into GC and GWS, leaves us with 16, 8 in Vic and 2 each in other states (except Tassie).

 

[Barrybran]

If the season starts in June, then it'll be fine. If the whole season is cancelled, then Gold Coast and GWS are in trouble. From the others, St Kilda are probably in the worst position. It wasn't long ago that Gil warned St Kilda about their financial position. If they were struggling in 2018, how will they go now?

Gold Coast and GWS are two of safest clubs in the league. What they lack at the top end is being more than made up by the growth at grass roots level. To that end, all of the other non-Victorian clubs are likely safe as well. If we see any clubs disappear they will be Victorian.

 

[BringBackTorps]

The GC Suns are here forever.
Its very fast growing population of 600K+, with strong GR AF regd. nos., is FAR too important strategically for the AFL. When the GC was competitive c. 6 years ago, it attracted excellent (for the GC- superior to NRL) home crowds of 24,000+.
Having only 1 AFL club in Qld., pop. 5.1m+, is absurd.

There are strong reasons to believe all 18 AFL clubs (& all 14 AFLW teams) will survive.
As stated on Sports Industry twitter recently, the AFL is seeking a $250m interest-free govt. loan. This loan will assist in ensuring all clubs survive.

The "...economic impact of Australian Rules Football...generated $6.8 billion in financial contributions to the Australian economy in 2018".

Economic windfall thanks to AFL

newsroom.unsw.edu.au

GCFC directly facilitates the growth of GR AF in the GC region- & probably throughout all Qld. (since it generates more MSM interest all over Qld. for the AFL).
For every $1 that GR AF clubs spend, a further $4.40 value is generated.

Grassroots football clubs 'boosting mental heath, creating jobs'

For every $1 spent on local football clubs, at least $4.40 is returned in social value, improving employment outcomes, mental wellbeing and personal development, a study finds.

www.abc.net.au

Thus, governments have a strong & valid vested interest that AF remains healthy in Australia- for economic reasons.

















EDIT:

Mr TV Australia 16.3.20

"Caroline Wilson The Age Reporting Seven and Foxtel set to agree on 2 year extension of the AFL Broadcasting Rights".

(Quantum is not stated- but the AFL was seeking the current $418m pa, +CPI).

sportsindustry (@footyindustryAU) | Twitter

The latest Tweets from sportsindustry (@footyindustryAU): "News Wrap | Friday, May 8th | WA AFL teams miss out on home games early, India still plan on coming to Australia, Kayo subs take a 30% hit, RA solvency questions https://t.co/ZI3V1TYArR"

twitter.com

(Go to 16.3- then click on "Mr TV Australia")

Hopefully, this suggests the Rights will be close to the current $418m pa- which would buttress the AFL, & ensure the survival of all 18 AFL clubs, &14 AFLW teams.

Strangely, I have found no MSM report of this Rights' breakthrough.

 

[Dusty0004]

Don’t GWS get even smaller crowds, even though they are top 4? If push came to shove, maybe the merger talks aren’t such a bad call, it sort of works with Sydney and Brisbane. Merge 2 struggling Melbourne clubs into GC and GWS, leaves us with 16, 8 in Vic and 2 each in other states (except Tassie).

the merge is possible but GWS and GCS will remain where they are

 

[Sttew]

If something has to give, and it is likely this will occur, then the AFL will seriously have to look at GC. When other clubs are bleeding how can the AFL continue to artificially prop up GC? To me it will be a no-brainer business question.

To those who say GC will survive you need to ask where will the money come from?

 

[Dusty0004]

If something has to give, and it is likely this will occur, then the AFL will seriously have to look at GC. When other clubs are bleeding how can the AFL continue to artificially prop up GC? To me it will be a no-brainer business question.

To those who say GC will survive you need to ask where will the money come from?

grass roots growth is why

 

[Macpotata]

Prediction - No one gives a *. And no one would give a *.

 

[Bald]

If you actually look at the numbers properly, St.Kilda are in serious serious trouble.

Saints will survive financial crisis, says CEO

St Kilda CEO Matt Finnis is confident that his club will survive the coronavirus lockdown period.

www.sen.com.au

Their CEO seems confident they aren't.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

Saints will survive financial crisis, says CEO

St Kilda CEO Matt Finnis is confident that his club will survive the coronavirus lockdown period.

www.sen.com.au

Their CEO seems confident they aren't.

No mention of numbers in there at all. Last report had a $10 million debt.

Lowest crowds of the Melbourne teams last season.

Would be the first Melbourne club to go.

 

[Established1870]

If something has to give, and it is likely this will occur, then the AFL will seriously have to look at GC. When other clubs are bleeding how can the AFL continue to artificially prop up GC? To me it will be a no-brainer business question.

To those who say GC will survive you need to ask where will the money come from?

The Suns have been around for 10 years in one of the toughest markets to crack for any sport with positive growth in all the areas the AFL care about. On top of that, having 1 guaranteed game a week in QLD (and NSW) is one of the big reasons the AFL got such a big TV rights deal in the first place. Anyone who thinks the AFL will let the Suns or Giants fold don't know what they're talking about.

What will be more likely is the AFL will cull clubs in an over-saturated state all based around one city, especially clubs that cost the AFL 20+ million dollars a year with 26 wooden spoons and one flag since the 1890's to show for it. Seriously, St Kilda (and North) would have to be the two clubs the AFL look at more then anybody to axe if it comes to cutting costs.