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Coach Prediction? Whos our next coach?

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Two full seasons and has completely changed the list.
They’ve gone to the draft as promised - gone young - was always going to cause some pain. You want a great list in two years?

So what if we’re throwing money out there…you want a great list, that’s what you do, for money and not giving up picks.

NAS will re-sign.
So are we "going the draft" or throwing money at players? The former hasn't been overly successful, there are holes all over the ground the young players we have aren't succeeding in filling. The latter has been a disaster, we haven't attracted a single big name player despite offering some a truly outrageous amount of money. And what if NAS chooses to go to Adelaide? What then?

I didn't ask for a great list in two years, I asked for improvement. North, Richmond and West Coast bottomed out completely and have shown improvement in the same period of time that we've stood still. Hell, even Hawthorn freshened up their list and went right past us at a rate of knots since RTB took over again.
 
He's had two full seasons and the better part of a third. You would expect to have seen some form of change in that time. Nobody expects instant success, but you'd think there would at least be positive signs after that period, but at the moment I can't think of anything that I can point to as "that's a change he's implimented that has succeeded or will pay off".

How much longer do you want to give him? He has until the end of 2027, so what would be a pass mark for the next two and a half seasons?

“Some sort of change” well that’s the list he has pretty much gutted.
I want most of a list of babies to have played at least 50 games.
Improvement is not usually linear.

It’s hard to be patient, but I’m taking his appointment as starting again at ground zero. In which case I don’t expect miracles in 4 years coming into what is really a rebuild, as he told the board when he was hired.

Anyway, we’re not really getting anywhere with this. We are both entitled to our opinions and to disagree with each other.
 
Someone doesn’t like Ross.
I’m sure there are a few.
I’d have him way ahead of Watters, Richo, Ratts anyway - not that that’s saying much.

Doesn’t mean he’s a guarantee to coach us forever. But he does need to be given some time to work on making a decent list - until then the jury is out.
 

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Ross has got two more years after this one so I would think we are at least holding onto the current setup until mid 2027.

Hard to know who could emerge during that time but I'll go with three possibilities:

Corey Enright -
He seems the heir apparent. If there was to be a succession plan or some type of "smooth" handover then you'd have him odds on favorite.

Has had success as a player and stepped into coaching and development at the Cats immediately after retirement.

If you wanted to be critical you could say that he might be a little narrow in terms of IP given he's only coached under Chris Scott & Ross Lyon.

Jarrad Schofield -
Won a flag at Port under Choco Williams and was caretaker for the Eagles after they moved on Adam Simpson.

Took himself right back to Colts level in the WAFL and worked his way up to the seniors, winning 3 flags.

Is apparently very good with younger players despite being a bit of a hard arse. Has been responsible for the midfield transition from Kelly/Shuey/Redden/Gaff into the likes of Reid, Hough, Brockman & Maric.

Downside is that he hasn't been part of a successful club at AFL level as he joined the Eagles after their 2018 flag.

Xavier Clarke -
My wildcard.

Former Saints player so that helps with buying in immediately.

Never really got a fair shake at it due to injuries but those of us that saw him play knew how talented he was. And how smart.

Built a reputation as one of the best development coaches in the comp during his stint with Dimma Hardwick at Richmond from 2017-2021 and is now working with Clarkson at North.

Coached his own team in the NEAFL (NT Thunder) and was named Coach of the Year in his first season (2014) before winning the flag in his second (2015).

Not sure he's ever expressed a desire to be a senior coach so he would need some strong assistants supporting him.
 
So are we "going the draft" or throwing money at players? The former hasn't been overly successful, there are holes all over the ground the young players we have aren't succeeding in filling. The latter has been a disaster, we haven't attracted a single big name player despite offering some a truly outrageous amount of money. And what if NAS chooses to go to Adelaide? What then?

I didn't ask for a great list in two years, I asked for improvement. North, Richmond and West Coast bottomed out completely and have shown improvement in the same period of time that we've stood still. Hell, even Hawthorn freshened up their list and went right past us at a rate of knots since RTB took over again.
With respect o don’t think north /west coast have improved that much.
 
I like Ross, hell I'll even say at times I love him.

But our list looks very average at the moment, our midfield looks the worst in the league. Games are won and lost around stoppages, that's 75% of this game now.

Most forumites have been crying out for midfield, midfield and midfield for years now.

It's still not fixed and Team RTB seem to not taking our midfield seriously.

1.7 milion for TDK, don't see him as a midfielder. Also don't see Tauru or Travaglia as midfielders ... Macrae, Caroll, Dow etc have been gained for peanuts but they are not the answer either.

The midfield is our issue, not necessarily coaching and we need quality midfielders.
 
Unpopular opinion: Lyon wasn't that good of a coach the first time around, at least with us.
We had arguably the best team the club has ever assembled, and I blame the tactics for not winning at least one of the Grand Finals we made.

2010 replay was absolutely tactics and mindset.

2010 first up - Lyon's tactics almost won us the game. The Pies had our number in the first half but Ross made all the right moves to get us in a position to win that one.

2009 - Again, our setup and tactics worked for basically 80% of the game. It was poor execution under pressure that cost us.

If Clint Jones just goes long down the line instead of hitting a check side...

If Dawson sticks holds Ablett up instead of trying to win the ball...

If Dawson & Kosi don't bump into each other and give Scarlett time for the toe poke...

The idea that Lyon can't coach, can't develop players, can't get teams kicking scores etc is all absolute rubbish. Give any other coach in the comp our list and I'm not sure we'd be kicking bags week after week.

The issues are far more to do with talent, effort & execution than they are with strategy & tactics.
 
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I like Ross, hell I'll even say at times I love him.

But our list looks very average at the moment, our midfield looks the worst in the league. Games are won and lost around stoppages, that's 75% of this game now.

Most forumites have been crying out for midfield, midfield and midfield for years now.

It's still not fixed and Team RTB seem to not taking our midfield seriously.

1.7 milion for TDK, don't see him as a midfielder. Also don't see Tauru or Travaglia as midfielders ... Macrae, Caroll, Dow etc have been gained for peanuts but they are not the answer either.

The midfield is our issue, not necessarily coaching and we need quality midfielders.

I don't think the coaches or list managers are blind to it.

The question is: Which mids did we clearly miss out on over the last few off seasons?

Not counting trades and FA moves because we have no idea if we were ever even an option.

2022 -
Phillipou - tick.

JVE (31) and Hotton (35) over Binns (32) or Hustwaite (37)

Keeler at 44 - Has all the talent. Not a heap taken after him though. Only one I'd definitely swap him for is Seth Campbell (who I love!) but he went in the rookie draft so nobody really had him.

2023 -
Wilson is a tick.

Hastie went a few picks before Shaun Mannagh, otherwise not much else.

Garcia (pick 50) or Archie Roberts (pick 54)??

2024 -
Tauru & Travaglia before Xav Lindsey.

Could have paired Lindsey with his teammate in Tauru but we are less than half a season in. Could be anything in 5 years time.

Barrat (32) before Moraes (38) and Bice (41)

So it's not as though we've had a plethora of elite mids to choose from under the current setup.

It really stems back to the Richo days and the poor development of Billings, Gresham, Clark & Coffield. All top end picks that we were told would develop into midfielders in the long run.

Add in concussion retirements for Paddy McCartin, Koby Stevens & Dyl Roberton and that's a 1/3 of what should have been a competitive team just... gone.

Its no wonder Ross came in and decided to try and rebuild on the run. The previous job only got half done before we started trying to paper over the cracks.
 
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2010 replay was absolutely tactics and mindset.

2010 first up - Lyon's tactics almost won us the game. The Pies had our number in the first half but Ross made all the right moves to get us in a position to win that one.

2009 - Again, our setup and tactics worked for basically 80% of the game. It was poor execution under pressure that cost us.

If Clint Jones just goes long down the line instead of hitting a check side...

If Dawson sticks holds Ablett up instead of trying to win the ball...

If Dawson & Kosi don't bump into each other and give Scarlett time for the toe poke...

The idea that Lyon can't coach, can't develop players, can't get teams kicking scores etc is all absolute rubbish. Give any other coach in the comp our list and I'm not sure we'd be kicking bags week after week.

The issues are far more to do with talent, effort & execution than they are with strategy & tactics.
IF, IF, IF. Though I disagree with you in 2009, Lyon didn't adapt his tactics to the conditions, which is why the players got the fumbles and Geelong ramped up the pressure. We wouldn't have been so far behind in 2010 if Lyon could adapt on the fly, which is still his issue to this day. I can say with some confidence that another coach would have won us one of those games given the opportunity.

The players we have are also responsible for the position we are in, but the form of the team varies so dramatically week to week that it's hard to put all the blame on them, very few sides are as difficult to predict. It's hard to reconcile that the side that dominated Geelong for 3 quarters is the same one that was soundly beaten by West Coast.

Regardless of the excuses, the results are what matter, and we've stayed in very much the same spot for Lyons tenure, which is what ultimately cost Ratten the job. I don't see why RTB is teflon when it comes to criticism, we aren't a bottom side in the middle of a rebuild, the club has been very clear that we are supposedly working towards an era of unprecidented success, which I've yet to see much evidence of.

Again, if we win the next 10 games, make top 4 and win the flag, I'll be first in line to kiss his feet. But I'm realistic enough to not stock up on chapstick.
 
Is Bevo still unsigned?
Have a look how dogs are playing. Bailey Dale just got 49 possessions in 1 game FFS Bailey bloody Dale.
Operation get Bevo back!
 

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IF, IF, IF. Though I disagree with you in 2009, Lyon didn't adapt his tactics to the conditions, which is why the players got the fumbles and Geelong ramped up the pressure. We wouldn't have been so far behind in 2010 if Lyon could adapt on the fly, which is still his issue to this day. I can say with some confidence that another coach would have won us one of those games given the opportunity.

2009 - We led for almost the entire game. Are you saying we did that in spite of Lyon's coaching? That the players were executing so perfectly that a poor strategy was somehow effective?

Lyon did change things on the fly in 2010. Gilbert and Goddard forward. Kosi into the ruck. Roo further up the ground... It's why we took over in the 2nd half.

Collingwood handled the replay far more professionally than we did but that's not on Ross Lyon.

I would also say with confidence, that no other coach would have taken that list to back to back Grand Finals.

Key moments like dropping Dal & Milne, bringing in Schneider, Dempster, King & Gardiner, backing in Montagna, Gilbert, Gram & Raph Clarke... Those things all contributed to us even making those games.

GTFO with "Another coach would have won us the flag". That's revisionism at its absolute worst.
 
IF, IF, IF. Though I disagree with you in 2009, Lyon didn't adapt his tactics to the conditions, which is why the players got the fumbles and Geelong ramped up the pressure. We wouldn't have been so far behind in 2010 if Lyon could adapt on the fly, which is still his issue to this day. I can say with some confidence that another coach would have won us one of those games given the opportunity.

The players we have are also responsible for the position we are in, but the form of the team varies so dramatically week to week that it's hard to put all the blame on them, very few sides are as difficult to predict. It's hard to reconcile that the side that dominated Geelong for 3 quarters is the same one that was soundly beaten by West Coast.

Regardless of the excuses, the results are what matter, and we've stayed in very much the same spot for Lyons tenure, which is what ultimately cost Ratten the job. I don't see why RTB is teflon when it comes to criticism, we aren't a bottom side in the middle of a rebuild, the club has been very clear that we are supposedly working towards an era of unprecidented success, which I've yet to see much evidence of.

Again, if we win the next 10 games, make top 4 and win the flag, I'll be first in line to kiss his feet. But I'm realistic enough to not stock up on chapstick.
To be fair 2010 and 2009 imo were as simple as bad luck. 09 missing shots, 2010 the bounce. Like these little things were out of his control.

It ultimately was the difference between being a two time premiership coach and not.
 

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