Predictions. MFC will finish ...

Predictions. MFC will finish

  • 1 - 4

    Votes: 15 22.1%
  • 5 - 8

    Votes: 28 41.2%
  • 9 - 12

    Votes: 19 27.9%
  • 13 - 18

    Votes: 7 10.3%

  • Total voters
    68

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Jamurp

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Apr 26, 2011
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We'd have to at the very least get a home final and win at least one, but in saying that, if we beat one of the worse sides in the top 8 and then get smashed by a better side a week later - it'll just show how far off from a flag we are.

We should be a top 4 side now, but we're not.
 

Proper Gander

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It’s difficult to argue the notion of our missing finals. Both of the making-up-the-numbers teams 2020 in Dogs and Saints look likely to improve this year.

Its possible a team or two drops out? Pies the only likely one this year.

You know, I’m going to stop thinking about it for a bit
 

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Dory_77

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Apr 2, 2012
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The Suns need to be able to play out a full season first. They should be there by now, but have had a few false dawns after early wins turn into mediocre seasons
 

ImissFrosty

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Mar 4, 2020
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The Suns need to be able to play out a full season first. They should be there by now, but have had a few false dawns after early wins turn into mediocre seasons
If rowell didn't get injured last year they would've got really close. Much like 2014 when GAJ went down.
 

GatesOfHell

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Oct 19, 2019
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Really going out on a limb. Bar a few picks most have predicted the same final 8.
With the snail’s pace of draft equalisation policies being countered by dumb free agency rules which see guns from battling clubs walking into top four teams, you’re lucky now if you get one change in the top eight from year to year let alone two.

Battlers like us need absolutely everything to go right without encountering any bad luck at all, just to get a look in.

Helps also to have a decent coach.
 

mrmonkey

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With the snail’s pace of draft equalisation policies being countered by dumb free agency rules which see guns from battling clubs walking into top four teams, you’re lucky now if you get one change in the top eight from year to year let alone two.

Battlers like us need absolutely everything to go right without encountering any bad luck at all, just to get a look in.

Helps also to have a decent coach.
Don't think this is completely true, look at Brisbane they were a basket case not too long ago players were jumping ship, they drafted well and now look very desirable. St Kilda have done pretty well recently they're not exactly a big club. Geelong have sustained being in the top eight mainly through drafting well. They got Dangerfield only because he wanted to move back home. Who else have they recruited, touhy, dahlhaus, rohan, Henderson nothing exactly special only now that they are close they attracted Cameron then smith and Higgins who are both over 30 now anyway.
 

GatesOfHell

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Oct 19, 2019
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Don't think this is completely true, look at Brisbane they were a basket case not too long ago players were jumping ship, they drafted well and now look very desirable. St Kilda have done pretty well recently they're not exactly a big club. Geelong have sustained being in the top eight mainly through drafting well. They got Dangerfield only because he wanted to move back home. Who else have they recruited, touhy, dahlhaus, rohan, Henderson nothing exactly special only now that they are close they attracted Cameron then smith and Higgins who are both over 30 now anyway.
Not saying there isn’t periodic change at the top, but in relative terms it’s far too slow paced and limited to one notable change per season, two if you’re lucky. In my view the rate of change and equalisation isn’t quick enough. You’ve got to give supporters of perennially unsuccessful clubs more hope than they are currently getting. There are a number of ways they could do this but the key one is to change the rules of the draft so that the bottom 10 clubs receive the top 20 draft picks each year. Top 8 sides should enter at pick 21 once those non-finalists have had a chance to pick the eyes out of the top end talent. One first round pick each season for battling clubs just doesn’t cut the mustard in terms of regenerating the list at a decent pace. Just my view but I know the AFL are looking at these types of scenarios heading into the future. They’re well aware of the ‘currency of hope’ and what it means for the competition if you have half the clubs with very little of it.
 

ImissFrosty

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Mar 4, 2020
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Not saying there isn’t periodic change at the top, but in relative terms it’s far too slow paced and limited to one notable change per season, two if you’re lucky. In my view the rate of change and equalisation isn’t quick enough. You’ve got to give supporters of perennially unsuccessful clubs more hope than they are currently getting. There are a number of ways they could do this but the key one is to change the rules of the draft so that the bottom 10 clubs receive the top 20 draft picks each year. Top 8 sides should enter at pick 21 once those non-finalists have had a chance to pick the eyes out of the top end talent. One first round pick each season for battling clubs just doesn’t cut the mustard in terms of regenerating the list at a decent pace. Just my view but I know the AFL are looking at these types of scenarios heading into the future. They’re well aware of the ‘currency of hope’ and what it means for the competition if you have half the clubs with very little of it.
Nah, I think it's fine. Last thing we want is NBA style rotation of power where you are in a grand final then get the first pick next season like the warriors. Plus draft picks won't help smaller teams rocket up the table in a year or two, that requires significant player movement like in American sports.
 

GatesOfHell

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Nah, I think it's fine. Last thing we want is NBA style rotation of power where you are in a grand final then get the first pick next season like the warriors. Plus draft picks won't help smaller teams rocket up the table in a year or two, that requires significant player movement like in American sports.
The potential for a quicker rotation of power is exactly what the competition needs. Otherwise you can barely call it a competition can you? More of a stage performance or pantomime.

Of course more high end talent would help lower clubs each year, especially when they’re able to accrue 6-7 quality kids over three drafts, rather than six or seven years worth. Simple logic I would’ve thought.
 

ImissFrosty

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The potential for a quicker rotation of power is exactly what the competition needs. Otherwise you can barely call it a competition can you? More of a stage performance or pantomime.

Of course more high end talent would help lower clubs each year, especially when they’re able to accrue 6-7 quality kids over three drafts, rather than six or seven years worth. Simple logic I would’ve thought.
Yeah it obviously helps, but it just means that the better teams will be trash for ages until they're good again because the the others have super teams. This would lead to less competitive seasons with a bunch of teams fielding sides of kids and getting smashed every week while there are a few teams loaded with talent in their prime.
 

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mrmonkey

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Not saying there isn’t periodic change at the top, but in relative terms it’s far too slow paced and limited to one notable change per season, two if you’re lucky. In my view the rate of change and equalisation isn’t quick enough. You’ve got to give supporters of perennially unsuccessful clubs more hope than they are currently getting. There are a number of ways they could do this but the key one is to change the rules of the draft so that the bottom 10 clubs receive the top 20 draft picks each year. Top 8 sides should enter at pick 21 once those non-finalists have had a chance to pick the eyes out of the top end talent. One first round pick each season for battling clubs just doesn’t cut the mustard in terms of regenerating the list at a decent pace. Just my view but I know the AFL are looking at these types of scenarios heading into the future. They’re well aware of the ‘currency of hope’ and what it means for the competition if you have half the clubs with very little of it.
The problem with this is a pretty slippery slope towards tanking. Is it worth making just sneaking into the eight knowing that your team is too far off the best teams so you're better off missing out another year and get two picks inside the top 20. The other situation what if a good team has an off season, like Hawthorn in 09. They just won the premiership and had an injury ravaged 09 and missed. I'm not sure if this fixes anything anyway teams that have been dominant in the past 15 years have done so by good drafting and then identifying talent from other clubs that may not be getting much of go. Richmonds current team really started building since 07 so it took them 10 years to break through. Richmond also made some terrible trades but made some excellent ones as well without getting anyone special. Houli wasn't getting a game at the bombers, grig wasn't much chop at Carlton, I reckon some Richmond supporters were annoyed about losing Collins thought he had morr upside. Look I know what you are saying it is bullshit that they could be so dominant and then recruit one of the best forwards in the comp from the bottom team. We're not innocent we poached may. At the end of the day at least we have a salary cap and teams do lose players and it's not as boring as the elp. Anyway hard to know what the solution is and hopefully we can see someone else win it.
 

Topkent

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I completely agree with GatesOfHell
Something has to change, 20-30 years ago people had patience and were happy to watch a team build from the bottom because life was a lot slower.
Nowadays lets say we sacked Goody and went through another rebuild are people really gonna wait another 5 years to see the fruits? Theres just way too many other choices in life. It is not sustainable in the future for the league to have 5-6 teams who are 5-10 years off competing because we just accept thats how long a build takes. Atleast 20 years ago even sh*t teams could kick 100 and you could be entertained. Now if you suck you score like 40 points and go goalless in multiple quarters. Whats even the point in watching? You can watch any sport or movie you want nowadays.

Who cares about the consequences, if a team wants to tank go for it. Us Brisbane and Carlton have proven that tanking can do decades of damage.
The alternative is currently teams taking a decade to go from rock bottom to competing. Thats f’ed. They need to double up the picks, so 1-19, 2-20,3-21 etc. Use the lottery, so last doesn't guarantee you anything. If a team wants to give up their spot in the finals let em. If the team the let in goes ahead and wins through to a Prelim they might just get to get that next star free agent
Or use David kings model, no extra picks the first year of missing finals, an extra pick the second year you miss out and then you keep getting more every year you miss. So games won is irrelevant, its sustained failure.

Finally campaigner the ******* salary floor.
Its retarted that GC are paying the same amount of money to the list as Richmond essentially. If teams who miss finals could pay 80% of the salary floor or 70% they could actually chase free agents with real cash. For free agency to really work, you would need GC to be able to offer Dusty say 3 million a year.
 

GatesOfHell

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The problem with this is a pretty slippery slope towards tanking. Is it worth making just sneaking into the eight knowing that your team is too far off the best teams so you're better off missing out another year and get two picks inside the top 20. The other situation what if a good team has an off season, like Hawthorn in 09. They just won the premiership and had an injury ravaged 09 and missed. I'm not sure if this fixes anything anyway teams that have been dominant in the past 15 years have done so by good drafting and then identifying talent from other clubs that may not be getting much of go. Richmonds current team really started building since 07 so it took them 10 years to break through. Richmond also made some terrible trades but made some excellent ones as well without getting anyone special. Houli wasn't getting a game at the bombers, grig wasn't much chop at Carlton, I reckon some Richmond supporters were annoyed about losing Collins thought he had morr upside. Look I know what you are saying it is bullshit that they could be so dominant and then recruit one of the best forwards in the comp from the bottom team. We're not innocent we poached may. At the end of the day at least we have a salary cap and teams do lose players and it's not as boring as the elp. Anyway hard to know what the solution is and hopefully we can see someone else win it.
I think the slipperier slope is to continue to leave things as they are and pray for the product to magically right itself.

With two picks in the top 20, non-finalists have a range of options open to them to help speed up the process of becoming properly competitive. I would mandate that they can use one of those picks to trade for a seasoned player who can have an immediate impact (but not both).

Under my scenario the wooden spooner would get picks 1 & 11, the club that finishes 17th would get picks 2 & 12 and so on up to the club that finishes 9th getting picks 10 & 20. The finalists then enter the draft in order of worst performed (8th) getting pick 21, 7th getting pick 22 and so on up to the premiership winning team getting pick 28. The second round of the draft would then commence with all clubs involved, starting back again with the wooden spooner receiving pick 29 and then running through the full list of 18 teams.

It’s not as dramatic as it reads. It’s just effectively giving non-finalists a second bite at the cherry at those quality picks from 11 - 20 at the draft. Would a club really tank to miss the finals and a crack at a premiership just so as it could get one of those picks? Possible but I doubt it. Tanking is fraught with danger as we have seen and experienced.

You can’t keep giving sh*te clubs one chance each year to get a decent player onto their list and expect any reasonable hope of genuine semi-consistent change at the top. It’s never gonna happen.

While you’re at it make the initial contract for those top 20 draftees a minimum of four years (instead of two) and amend free agency so that the Tom Lynch’s and Jezza Cameron’s of the world can’t waltz into grand final sides. I would ban the top four each year from being able to participate in free agency (unless it’s one of their blokes leaving for a lower ranked club).

The whole system as it currently sits is f...ked.
 
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Meds

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Nov 12, 2008
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This
With two picks in the top 20, non-finalists have a range of options open to them to help speed up the process of becoming properly competitive. I would mandate that they can use one of those picks to trade for a seasoned player who can have an immediate impact (but not both).

Under my scenario, the wooden spooner would get picks 1 & 11, the club that finishes 17th would get picks 2 & 12 and so on up to the club that finishes 9th getting picks 10 & 20. The finalists then enter the draft in order of worst performed (8th) getting pick 21, 7th getting pick 22 and so on up to the premiership-winning team getting pick 28. The second round of the draft would then commence with all clubs involved, starting back again with the wooden spooner receiving pick 29 and then running through the full list of 18 teams.

It’s not as dramatic as it reads. It’s just effectively giving non-finalists a second bite at the cherry at those quality picks from 11 - 20 at the draft. Would a club really tank to miss the finals and a crack at a premiership just so as it could get one of those picks? Possible but I doubt it. Tanking is fraught with danger as we have seen and experienced.
Plus this
Finally campaigner the ******* salary floor.
It's ******ed that GC is paying the same amount of money to the list as Richmond essentially. If teams who miss finals could pay 80% of the salary floor or 70% they could actually chase free agents with real cash. For free agency to really work, you would need GC to be able to offer Dusty say 3 million a year.
= Good change in my view.

It's the kind of assistance a club not making finals needs, without being so enticing that teams would opt to miss finals to receive it. Lowering your ladder position in the system GatesOfHell talks about only improves your picks marginally compared to other non-finalists. And for a team on the cusp of finals I can't imagine too many saying picks 10&20 instead of 21 is worth missing finals for. As an equalisation measure it's one of the better ones I've heard and would allow teams to stay in the draft while bringing in mature talent, or go heavy with youngsters.

Topkent is bang on the money with the salary floor. It limits the abilities of less successful clubs to use the money they should have from paying less to their players to bring top-end talent in. It also limits their ability to pay significant overs to their stars to stop them walking for "a chance at success".
 

KickLongTackleHard

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6th-8th. Don’t see how we beat the top 4 sides without better tactics and coaching. List is solid enough.
Only 5 rounds in, but no one saw 5-0 and the success or every new change implemented.

Heading into the litmus test against the Tiges this weekend, it would be interesting to see where everyone’s hopes are now at.

I’d revise my prediction to 5th-7th. Really need to see us beat top 4 quality under pressure or at least run them all the way before predicting any higher but we’re knocking on the door. Can’t wait to find out a bit more on Saturday.
 

Blackas87

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I said after the 2018 finals it won’t be until 2021 until we will be a contender, and I’m sticking with it. Top 4
Top 4 or bust
Originally said top 4 and after the pre season I reckon will be premiers. Usually we try our hardest in the NAB cup because we need it, but against the Bulldogs we just weren’t interested in it, we are waiting for the real stuff, no point playing your hand in a praccy game. Confidence sky high
This team is built to be winning right now. The club was aiming to be a contender now, scrapping into finals is a failure.
 

Meds

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Nov 12, 2008
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Poll should be closed so campaigners can’t change vote and proclaim themselves as Nostradamus. Still sticking by my 5-8 prediction.
I put 1-4 when the thread began as a complete piss-take but now I want to bathe in the glory of my wisdom so for anyone reading this I was totes serious right from the start, but if we do a Melbourne and miss finals by percentage then this post was all part of the joke
 

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