List Mgmt. Predictions On Our Current Youth

[Danger Zone]

We are going through a rebuild and that has a lot of us nervously looking at the future of our club. We seem to have some wildly differing opinions on our young players, so I thought we could make our predictions here and then look back on it later for bragging and bagging rights.

The young players traded for or drafted since 2014:

Reilly O'Brien
Wayne Milera
Tom Doedee
Jordan Gallucci
Myles Poholke
Elliot Himmelberg
Ben Davis
Darcy Fogarty
Andrew McPherson
Lachlan Murphy
Shane McAdam
Tyson Stengle
Chayce Jones
Ned McHenry
William Hamill
Lachlan Sholl
Kieran Strachan
Jordon Butts
Billy Frampton
Fischer McAsey
Harry Schoenberg
Josh Worrell
Ronin O'Connor
Lachlan Gollant
Ben Keays
Ben Crocker
Ayce Taylor


My predictions:

Reilly O'Brien - (A-) Will eventually be an A-Grade ruckman thanks to his work around the ground but his tap work will stop him being elite
Wayne Milera - (B+) Will show frustrating glimpses but ultimately never breaks past to the next level
Tom Doedee - (S-) Will be an AA later in his career provided he stays relatively injury free
Jordan Gallucci - (C-) Will play some solid games, likely for another club, but won't meet anywhere near what was expected
Myles Poholke - (C+) Will spend some years as a solid cog for a team
Elliot Himmelberg - (D+) Will not play many more games
Ben Davis - (C-) Will not ever have a big impact at the highest level
Darcy Fogarty - (B+) Will be a miniature version of Tex but playing in an era less suited to that type of forward. May be a bit controversial but at very best I see him briefly being an A-Grader
Andrew McPherson - (A-) Will be fantastic if his body stays right
Lachlan Murphy - (D+) Will not have much longer unless he successfully role swaps
Shane McAdam - (C+) Will remain an excitement machine that teases without ever gaining consistency
Tyson Stengle - (B-) Will be a solid small forward for a number of years
Chayce Jones - (S-) Will be one of our best players over the next decade
Ned McHenry - (B+) Will disappoint in early career before coming good later
William Hamill - (A+) Will be a highly valued player with attacking flair
Lachlan Sholl - (B+) Will be a solid player in a settled defensive role
Kieran Strachan - (D+) Will be lucky to play a game
Jordon Butts - (C+) Will play some solid periods of footy
Billy Frampton - (C+) Will do the role required for a few years
Fischer McAsey - (B+) Will be a good but not amazing player, but will surprise us by staying at the Crows
Harry Schoenberg - (B-) A decent and long career as a solid cog in the midfield
Josh Worrell - (A-) Will struggle to find a best role for a while but will become an A-Grader, just maybe not for us
Ronin O'Connor - (C+) Will be decent but not as outstanding as some are hoping
Lachlan Gollant - (?) Will either be amazing or never play a game
Ben Keays - (B+) Will surprise many by being a quite good player for the Crows for some time
Ben Crocker - (C-) Will play some of the next two seasons
Ayce Taylor - (D+) Will be lucky to ever play a game

Superstars (S+) -
Elite (S-) - Doedee, Jones
Great (A+) - Hamill
Very Good (A-) - ROB, McPherson, Worrell
Above Average (B+) - Milera, Fogarty, Sholl, McAsey, McHenry, Keays
Good (B-) - Schoenberg, Stengle
Role Player (C+) - Poholke, McAdam, Butts, Frampton, O'Connor
Mediocre (C-) - Gallucci, Davis, Crocker
Poor (D+) - Murphy, Himmelberg, Strachan, Taylor
Unknown (?) - Gollant

 

[Scorpus]

Reilly O'Brien - think his ceiling is a Stefan Martin like ruckman that gives serviceable taps and is really good around the ground

Wayne Milera - he's on the track to Stephen Motlop territory but could pull the lever back and become a dominating force in the middle

Tom Doedee - on track to be an elite defender

Jordan Gallucci - Achilles injuries are usually career killers at AFL level. Had high hopes but think he will struggle now

Myles Poholke - tank looks to be an issue, very hard to judge based on how we've used him, ceiling looks to be role player level, CEY type at best

Elliot Himmelberg - won't make it, tall forwards that can't mark have no future in the AFL

Ben Davis - very hard to judge based on games so far, he seems to be an X-factor player with not quite enough X-factor

Darcy Fogarty - if we return to having good F50 structures I think he could be a dominant second or third forward, a stronger, better skilled version of Jack Darling

Andrew McPherson - we're really lacking a solid medium type defensive defender that also has reasonable offensive skills, if he stays injury free I think he has a high ceiling

Lachlan Murphy - won't make it as a forward, has zero goal sense and has limited football sense, his pressure game is easily replicated by a more skilled player and ultimately I don't think he survives the rebuild

Shane McAdam - looks to be the cream you add to the forward line, every good forward group needs an X-factor player and this guy appears to be it, could be anything from a role player to elite forward. Age is a concern

Tyson Stengle - I don't think he has enough tools to be an elite small forward but has goal sense and is working hard on his game. I see him being serviceable.

Chayce Jones - I've seen enough to suggest he'll be good at the very least, he has evasion, speed, game sense and reasonable disposal. If he can elevate his strength without losing pace he could be a dominant explosive midfielder

Ned McHenry - has excellent workrate, elite pressure and seems to have solid game sense. Question marks over disposal but I think he could be an above average midfielder

William Hamill - has all the tools to be an elite player, top level pace and skills plus has been working hard on defensive craft. Will catch the eye of the AFL quickly and be highly rated

Lachlan Sholl - could find himself behind Hamill and McPherson (plus others) and therefore struggle to break into the side, but appears to have AFL level qualities

Kieran Strachan - have zero insights on him

Jordon Butts - liked what I've seen but still needs more gym time, could be a better version of Hartigan in time

Billy Frampton - won't be anything more than a role player but that's fine

Fischer McAsey - depends if we play him forward or back, I think he'll disappoint as a defender relative to his draft position (he'll be serviceable) but could be an elite forward

Harry Schoenberg - really liked what I've seen in the limited highlights so far, looks to have the ability to fill a second rotation midfield spot easily

Josh Worrell - another player I think has elite attributes and great game sense, could be a really good player

Ronin O'Connor - very hard to say without exposed form, could take time and be our next CEY

Lachlan Gollant - project player

Ben Keays - ultimately I think his disposal will frustrate and will find his place as a defensive type midfielder, can see him playing through the rebuild but not beyond as we stockpile elite talent

Ben Crocker - another guy I can see playing through the rebuild but lacks that little bit of X-factor you need to really be elite in his role, will be phased out

Ayce Taylor - don't know anything about this guy, project player at best and would be lucky to play

 

[Danger in Texas]

Hard to predict, but based off this criteria:

S Tier = peak of one of the best players in the league. Superstar-types
A Tier = great players for the club, star players at their peak
B Tier = good 100-200 gamers, good, solid players at their peak
C Tier = journeymen/fringe players, either a career depth player or a fringe best 22-type
D Tier = will find it lucky to play another game in the league

Examples of such:
Patrick Dangerfield = S+
Eddie Betts = S
Rory Sloane = A+
Taylor Walker, Rory Laird, Matt Crouch = A
Brodie Smith = A-
Tom Lynch = B+
Luke Brown, Rory Atkins = B
Kyle Hartigan = B-
Jared Petrenko, Brad Symes = C+
Jonathan Griffin, Sam Kerridge = C
Mitch Grigg, Tony Armstrong = D+
Tim McIntyre = D

Reilly O'Brien - B+ (will end up, at his current pace, the third best ruckman to play at the club)
Wayne Milera - A- (will break open a few games, might make an AA, similar to a Smithers-type career)
Tom Doedee - S- (will end up the best third tall defender in the league for a number of years)
Jordan Gallucci - C (can see him being there or thereabouts in the league, maybe not with us though)
Myles Poholke - C+ (will be there or thereabouts for the next few seasons I reckon, won't ever be a permanent best 22 guy though)
Elliot Himmelberg - D (can see him being delisted without playing another game)
Ben Davis - D+ (probably will play sporadic games for the next 1 1/2 years before being delisted, I reckon)
Darcy Fogarty - S (will end up a top key forward in the league)
Andrew McPherson - B (hard to predict right now, but has the potential to be a very solid half back, injuries permitting)
Lachlan Murphy - C+ (will end up with a Petrenko-like career, will probably crack 50 games but won't see a lot of best 22 time beyond that)
Shane McAdam - B- (will be very electric but inconsistent, maybe only the 100 games due to being a late starter)
Tyson Stengle - B- (maybe I'm biased, but I think he'll end up being an important small forward for us. 100-150 games)
Chayce Jones - A+ (won't be a Brownlow winner, but will be a great midfielder nonetheless. Will make AA teams)
Ned McHenry - A (his absolute peak is a Dayne Zorko-type. I think he'll be very good but maybe a step below that)
William Hamill - A (can see him making an AA or two. Game-breaking half-back come outside mid, will have a fair bit of impact)
Lachlan Sholl - C+ (hard to see his peak being above the likes of Milera/Hamill/McPherson. Could succeed, maybe not with us)
Kieran Strachan - D (won't play a game for us)
Jordon Butts - B (honestly I can see him carving out 150 games. A 3rd tall that can make an impact forward and back)
Billy Frampton - C (will be a solid stop-gap for the next three or four years, nothing more)
Fischer McAsey - A (give him until 2022, then he'll really start to shine. Talia's protege)
Harry Schoenberg - B+ (old reliable. Will end up an important cog and maybe one of the game's most underrated, but not really an AA type mid)
Josh Worrell - A- (a more dynamic Jordy Butts, in that he could eventually go through the midfield, too. Like his chances)
Ronin O'Connor - no idea
Lachlan Gollant - no idea
Ben Keays - B- (can see him having a De Boer-type impact over his time with us, a reliable tagger when needed)
Ben Crocker - C (meh. Like Frampton, a solid stop-gap for three years)
Ayce Taylor - no idea

S = Fogarty
S- = Doedee
A+ = Jones
A = McHenry, Hamill, McAsey
A- = Worrell, Milera
B+ = Schoenberg, ROB
B = McPherson, Butts
B- = McAdam, Stengle, Keays
C+ = Poholke, Murphy, Sholl
C = Gallucci, Frampton, Crocker
D+ = Davis
D = Himmelberg, Strachan
no idea = ROC, Gollant, Taylor

 

[GreyCrow]

A Grade Superstars
Tom Doedee
Darcy Fogarty
Chayce Jones
William Hamill

Role Playing B Grade
Myles Poholke
Reilly O'Brien -
Wayne Milera - can make the A Grade list with composure and a good coach that can work with him
Ben Davis
Ben Keays
Ben Crocker
Shane McAdam - will be more like Motlop than Milera
Tyson Stengle

C Grade - may rise or fall

Billy Frampton


Havent seen enough
Ned McHenry - be that grunt machine
Fischer McAsey - hope to see more
Lachlan Sholl
Kieran Strachan
Jordon Butts
Ayce Taylor
Harry Schoenberg
Josh Worrell
Ronin O'Connor
Lachlan Gollant

90% chance they wont be at Adelaide next year - 100% chance they wont come back to haunt us
Jordan Gallucci
Elliot Himmelberg
Lachlan Murphy

Forever Injured
Andrew McPherson - has to make his mark this year or be let go

 

[pjcrows]

I thought that Nathan Bock would be delisted after one season and that Aaron Kite would play 100 games based on 15 minutes of SANFL so I'm gonna stay out of this one.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Our hopeful talent are all too young to make a call on.

Jones is very far off but has the mindset and attributes to be an A grader.

McHenry is also very far off and has the mindset, just needs experience and to find the balance with aggression and poise. He's burning everything at the moment.

Fog has S talent, unsure whether he'll reach AFL star work ethic.

I think Hamils game was better than any game Jones or McHenry have put together thus far bar Jones R23 last year. We need him to be an A grader.

Doedee will be S, but don't have a lot of confidence in others to reach the same heights. We have 0 top 5 picks on the list (lets pretend Gibbs doesn't exist).

 

[Golumless]

Our hopeful talent are all too young to make a call on.

Jones is very far off but has the mindset and attributes to be an A grader.

McHenry is also very far off and has the mindset, just needs experience and to find the balance with aggression and poise. He's burning everything at the moment.

Fog has S talent, unsure whether he'll reach AFL star work ethic.

I think Hamils game was better than any game Jones or McHenry have put together thus far bar Jones R23 last year. We need him to be an A grader.

Doedee will be S, but don't have a lot of confidence in others to reach the same heights. We have 0 top 5 picks on the list (lets pretend Gibbs doesn't exist).

That'll change come 2021.

 

[Golumless]

Reilly O'Brien - think his ceiling is a Stefan Martin like ruckman that gives serviceable taps and is really good around the ground

Wayne Milera - he's on the track to Stephen Motlop territory but could pull the lever back and become a dominating force in the middle

Tom Doedee - on track to be an elite defender

Jordan Gallucci - Achilles injuries are usually career killers at AFL level. Had high hopes but think he will struggle now

Myles Poholke - tank looks to be an issue, very hard to judge based on how we've used him, ceiling looks to be role player level, CEY type at best

Elliot Himmelberg - won't make it, tall forwards that can't mark have no future in the AFL

Ben Davis - very hard to judge based on games so far, he seems to be an X-factor player with not quite enough X-factor

Darcy Fogarty - if we return to having good F50 structures I think he could be a dominant second or third forward, a stronger, better skilled version of Jack Darling

Andrew McPherson - we're really lacking a solid medium type defensive defender that also has reasonable offensive skills, if he stays injury free I think he has a high ceiling

Lachlan Murphy - won't make it as a forward, has zero goal sense and has limited football sense, his pressure game is easily replicated by a more skilled player and ultimately I don't think he survives the rebuild

Shane McAdam - looks to be the cream you add to the forward line, every good forward group needs an X-factor player and this guy appears to be it, could be anything from a role player to elite forward. Age is a concern

Tyson Stengle - I don't think he has enough tools to be an elite small forward but has goal sense and is working hard on his game. I see him being serviceable.

Chayce Jones - I've seen enough to suggest he'll be good at the very least, he has evasion, speed, game sense and reasonable disposal. If he can elevate his strength without losing pace he could be a dominant explosive midfielder

Ned McHenry - has excellent workrate, elite pressure and seems to have solid game sense. Question marks over disposal but I think he could be an above average midfielder

William Hamill - has all the tools to be an elite player, top level pace and skills plus has been working hard on defensive craft. Will catch the eye of the AFL quickly and be highly rated

Lachlan Sholl - could find himself behind Hamill and McPherson (plus others) and therefore struggle to break into the side, but appears to have AFL level qualities

Kieran Strachan - have zero insights on him

Jordon Butts - liked what I've seen but still needs more gym time, could be a better version of Hartigan in time

Billy Frampton - won't be anything more than a role player but that's fine

Fischer McAsey - depends if we play him forward or back, I think he'll disappoint as a defender relative to his draft position (he'll be serviceable) but could be an elite forward

Harry Schoenberg - really liked what I've seen in the limited highlights so far, looks to have the ability to fill a second rotation midfield spot easily

Josh Worrell - another player I think has elite attributes and great game sense, could be a really good player

Ronin O'Connor - very hard to say without exposed form, could take time and be our next CEY

Lachlan Gollant - project player

Ben Keays - ultimately I think his disposal will frustrate and will find his place as a defensive type midfielder, can see him playing through the rebuild but not beyond as we stockpile elite talent

Ben Crocker - another guy I can see playing through the rebuild but lacks that little bit of X-factor you need to really be elite in his role, will be phased out

Ayce Taylor - don't know anything about this guy, project player at best and would be lucky to play

My first point - I don't think Jones is too far off strength-wise, broke a couple of tackles against Gold Coast. I do also agree with that summary.

Second - I reckon you do underrate McAsey defensive ability. He's probably at a serviceable level now, considering how under siege we've been. He seems to have a game that could be elite two-way player once he gets comfortable. Or serviceable with some really frustrating moments.

Beyond that, I reckon you've summed up everything I was thinking.

 

[1990crow]

I think this thread will better reading come 2022 when we have 3 top ten picks in 2020 added to Edwards and Newchurch plus likely another top pick in 2021 plus Dudley. And maybe plus a priority pick.
Could be 8 players added that at draft time we would expect all the make it.

Personally I think it's too hard to gauge who will reach what level but I would rather go in 3 categories.

Will be very good and make it. Let's call it A.
Will be ok and be serviceable. B.
Won't make it. C.

Jones. A.
Murphy. C.
Galluci. C.
Poholke. B.
Hamill. A.
Stengle. B.
Taylor. C.
Crocker. C.
Frampton. C.
McAdam. B. Not young though so could end up making way for the 2020 to 2021 wave.
Worrell. A.
McHenry. A.
Schoenberg. A.
Keays. B.
Milera. A.
Fogarty. A.
Himmelburg. C.
McAsey. A.
McPherson. B.
Oconnor. B.
Sholl. B.
Doedee. A.
Davis. C.
Butts. B.
Gollant. C. Hope he makes it but too hard to make a judgement with no SANFL to watch and will be competing with a large quantity of good prospects.
Strachan. C.

9 very good is not enough to make an AFL side given most of our experience will be gone within 5 years.
2020 and 2021 drafts will need to be good ones to bring us up to the level.

 

[glengowan]

Superstars (S+) -
Elite (S-) -
Great (A+) - Doedee, Fogarty, McAsey
Very Good (A-) -
Above Average (B+) - Milera, ROB
Good (B-) - Jones, Hamill
Role Player (C+) - McHenry, Stengle, Murphy
Mediocre (C-) - Gallucci, Poholke, Davis, Crocker, Keays, Frampton, Himmelberg, McAdam
Poor (D+) -
Unknown (?) - Gollant, McPherson, Worrell, Schoenberg, Sholl, O'Connor, Butts, Strachan, Taylor

 

[kulak]

From earlier this year:

Prediction - The Petrenko 50 Game Rule

Quite a few youngsters on our list. Some have given us a taste, others have shown a bit in the SANFL, some have had injury trouble, others we've barely seen. So which ones will reach the magical 50 games? Who will carry us forward now that the Walker-Sloane-Talia-Jacobs-Betts-Lynch-Jenkins era...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[kulak]

From late last year:

Prediction - Prospects

Now that our 2019 has come to a close, and we're firmly facing a rebuild/restructure, it's probably a good time to take a look at our prospects and see where we all sit with our kids (and who knows, I may crack out some nerdy as * charts in the future with this thread). So lets say < 50 game...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[kulak]

I’m pretty content with my predictions from last year. Maybe a bit more cautious on a few of the B and C groups.

AA contender (A) - Hamill

Top 10 (B) - Doedee, Jones, Fogarty, McHenry, Sholl

Role player (C) - Gallucci, Himmelberg, McAdam

Depth (D) - Poholke, Davis, Murphy, Stengle

SANFL only (E) - Strachan, Butts

N/A: McPherson.

Would have had Doedee as A except he did his knee.

PS the Mackay band is C, not E.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Superstars (S+) -
Elite (S-) -
Great (A+) - Doedee, Fogarty, McAsey

Well that doesn't make sense

 

[marty36]

Well that doesn't make sense

Elite or superstar surely is only for the likes on Ablett danger dusty buddy fyfe and that level of player

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Elite or superstar surely is only for the likes on Ablett danger dusty buddy fyfe and that level of player

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Not only that what has McAsey done to even be in the same category as Fog & Doedee.

 

[Golumless]

Not only that what has McAsey done to even be in the same category as Fog & Doedee.

He's so far been a serviceable defender at an AFL level 1 month of the season in (though with some first year moments).

Fish has daylight on both at an equivalent career point.

 

[Mego Red]

Likely to be useful footballers -
Doedee
Fogarty
McAsey
Milera
ROB
Jones
Hamill
McHenry
Schoenberg
McPherson
Worrell

Could end up useful footballers -
Stengle
Gallucci
Poholke
Keays
Frampton
McAdam
Gollant
Sholl
O'Connor
Butts

Unlikely to be useful footballers -
Murphy
Strachan
Davis
Taylor
Himmelberg
Crocker

 

[Betts are off]

I thought that Nathan Bock would be delisted after one season and that Aaron Kite would play 100 games based on 15 minutes of SANFL so I'm gonna stay out of this one.

Yeah me too, this thread has the potential to contain a Mount Everest sized stack of posts that wont age well!

I'm gonna let it go through to the keepers!

 

[Idontpullout]

What's with some of the comments of Worrell wanting to go home that's been on here lately?
Is this just adding 2 + 2 because he is a Vic.
Or has there actually been talk.
I'd be surprised considering its been less than a year.

 

[Dudersaurus]

What's with some of the comments of Worrell wanting to go home that's been on here lately?
Is this just adding 2 + 2 because he is a Vic.
Or has there actually been talk.
I'd be surprised considering its been less than a year.

Meh, one part paranoia, one part realistic concern.

Also throw in a generally crappy year for new interstate draftees. In an ordinary year they would have been able to see the folks multiple times, but likely haven't had any chance since the Barossa 'camp'.

 

[Crows I Am]

9 very good is not enough to make an AFL side given most of our experience will be gone within 5 years.
2020 and 2021 drafts will need to be good ones to bring us up to the level.

Agree with this, we look to have found a few good to very good players in Jones, Fog, Doedee and Hamill but we still seem to be missing the players who have potential to go on to become elite (top 20 players in the league). I feel as though you need at least a couple in this range to push into the premiership contention. Hopefully we can uncover a couple in the next 2 drafts.

 

[Murray2503]

We have some good young kids on our list.

Players I think will be long term players for us are:
Hamill Jones Doedee McAsey? Schoenberg Fogarty? McAdam Worrell McPherson? Milera? McHenry? Sholl? ROB Stengle Gollant.

We need to add top line talent to that through the draft and make some smart trades of experience similar to gws. Move out players that have value who arent as invested as they should be and won't be part of the next flag. We also need some quality assistants and a mentor type for Nicks. Add in Chapman, Riccuito, Fagan, Hass, Reid, Hart, Clarke, Godden being moved on and we can start the build to success. Things will gradually get better.

Players I would retire are:
Walker Gibbs Mackay

Players I would consider trading are:
MCrouch Sloane Smith

Players I would definitely trade are:
Laird BCrouch Atkins Kelly Lynch Hartigan Gallucci Seedsman Poholke Murphy Himmelberg

Players I would delist are:
Wilson Strachan Knight

Will likely take 2 years to clear out all players mentioned but the retirements and delisting can be done this year along with 3 or 4 trades.

If done right with perfect drafting and trading we may have one hell of a list in 2 years that can likely contend within another 2 to 3 years. We should be aiming for a combination of gws and brisbane builds.