Predictions

[Power Mad]

Well, now that the Ansett Cup and practice matches are out of the way, we've had a chance to see something of all teams' form, even though some clubs take a 'different'approach to the pre-season.

Trying to predict the ladder in exact order is mostly guesswork, but there do seem to be four 'strata' of teams. The order within those strata may vary, but it would take a bolter, or an unforseen slide (eg bad injury run) for there to be much change to these groups.

So, having settled on the groups, and observed the teams' pre-season form, here's my prediction for the ladder at the end of the home-and-away rounds:

Goup One:

Essendon
Kangaroos
Brisbane

Group Two:

Carlton
*******************(top 4)
Adelaide
Western Bulldogs

Group Three:

Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
******************(top 8)
St Kilda
Sydney
West Coast

Group Four:

Melbourne
Collingwood
Geelong
Fremantle
Richmond

Which would give us some intriguing finals in the first week!

Group Three is the most interesting. 5 teams vying for the last two spots in the top 8. You can make a case for any of them to make it. Above is my best guess

 

[Dave]

I think you're under-rating Melbourne a little there PM. If they have a half way decent run with injury I think they'll be a serious challenger for a spot in the eight.

 

[Pete]

Well Power Mad, your predictions aren't too bad but I thought you would have given your own team a bit of a greater chance. Heres my ladder all in order:

***Group One***
Kangaroos
Essendon By far the best 4 teams
West Coast
Brisbane
__________
***Group two***
Western Bulldogs
Carlton
__________
***Group three***
Sydney
Adelaide
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
__________
***Group four***
Melbourne
St Kilda
__________
***Group five***
Richmond
Geelong
Collingwood
Fremantle

Teams who could slide dramatically from my predictions:
Carlton
Sydney

Teams who could do a lot better than I predict:
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Collingwood (Recent form indicates better than 15th)

Pete

 

[Power Mad]

I can't see West Coast being top 4 this year given their gradual decline over recent years and what we've seen in the pre-season. I think they'd do well to make the eight.

I bought a mag called "Football Action 2000" the other day (something to read on the bus) and it had some predictions and 'analysis' by Ken Piess and Graeme Bond. Their predictions for 2000 are:

Kangaroos
Essendon
StKilda (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Hawthorn (!!!)
Brisbane
West Coast
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
****************
Carlton (!!!)
Bulldogs (!!!)
Sydney
Collingwood
Richmond
Geelong
Fremantle
Melbourne(!)

Some surprises there. Some bookies have St Kilda well favoured too - why???

 

[Dan26]

Power Mad,

St.Kilda, with their best line-up are a very formidable team. They have fallen down mentally at times the last few years. Giving up a 10 goal lead is really a mental problem, as they were obviously a good team to get a 10 goal lead in the first place !!

When they are on fire, with Burke, Harvey, Everitt, Loewe, etc, they are hard to beat.

They just need to put it all together, something they rarely have ever done in their 103 year history. Bit every now and then, when they fire (eg 1997), they can be hard to beat.

But with the Saints, you never know whether they will finish in the top 4 or the bottom four.

As for the Eagles, I think they will slip out this year. They have been threatening to fall out for years, and now that they have lost their best asset (Malthouse), they won't keep pace with the top teams. They will still be competitive at home.

As for Port, they need more goals. They simply can't kick enough goals.

 

[Jaffa]

Looking at the 16 teams I think most agree that North, Essendon and Brisbane are above the rest.

After those 3 the rest seem to be quite a mediocre bunch. I would say that this has been the most difficult year to predict a ladder.

If teams are going to improve then this is the year to do it.

I would say that the other 5 spots in the 8 are up for grabs.

I think Carlton will get in but I wouldn't even say that is a given.

 

[The Dutchman!]

I think that will full lists and no injuries to all clubs, Essendon will be about a 2 or 3 goal better side than Brisbane and about a 5-6 goal better side than North. They were last year and if anything they've improved. But anything can happen with injuries and February form means nothing.

I'd have

Group 1

Essendon 19-20 wins

Group 2

Brisbane 16-17 wins
Roos 15-16 wins

Group 3 (in no particular order)

Adelaide
West Coast
Port Adelaide
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Geelong
Richmond
Bulldogs
Collingwood (very promising pre-season)
Carlton (may slide unless the competition is poor - unfortunately have to play Essendon twice)
Sydney
Melbourne

Group four

Fremantle

 

[Pessimistic]

Predictions - Too hard to predict

I totally reject the assertion that any teams are 'so far' ahead of the rest. Surely the performances by the crows, or carlton in '99, sydney in '96, saints in '97 show that it is hared to predict. The three teams quoted by most will tend to the final eight but is more likely that no more than two of them will occupy the top three spots. In fact Essendon were well down the ladder and Brisbane were last in '98. That proves my point to a certain extent

The reasons why the season is hard to predict ?

1. Six teams with new coaches, Three Rookies. This suggests the teams might struggle but Adelaide won the flag with a new coach, while geelong and sydney made the GF with rookie coaches.

2. Early start to season. Normally the one-off games (where teams play each other for the only time) are played in winter. this year it is a month early.

3. Colonial stadium. Nobody really knows the effect this will have. EG One anomaly s that Hawthorn is the last team to 'debut' at colonial. The round 12 home game will be against freo who will already have played colonial twice. The roof will be closed most games so what effect will that have ?

4. Injuries. Always there but will they be worse with earlier start, Hard grounds, new surface at colonial

5. Umpiring. Will it be different this year ? I witnessed teams who have had considerable 'assistance' by the umpires over the past few years be totally abandoned by them (I'll quote North and WCE as examples, but I admit the ansett cup is different) How will the doggies fare if that is true ?

6. The crows factor. If they make the finals, look out.

My team ? Hawthorn will be extremely good in the next few years but I feel the injuries will get the better of us this year, and we are still building up depth... perhaps just in the eight or knocking in the door of the four - then looking forward to 2001

 

[Senor Skase]

Until last Saturday I would have had the Roos up there as well. I know it's just one game, and Essendon were very good, but the Roos looked - well some have said disinterested, others have said flat. I just got the feeling "old". Perhaps this is totally unfair. Then again, perhaps it's the season when the slide starts for a few champions.
As for Port, the mediocre odds for finishing just in or just out of the 8 are about right. They are not hopeless, but they are are bit off the pace for top 4, largely because of forward inefficiency , which remains diabolical.

Other teams to take the slide - West Coast. Teams to remain about the same- Freo. Big improvers - Collingwood. Anyway, my 2 bob's worth.

 

[Pessimistic]

Carlton

Apparently reports have that hawthorn outplayed carlton for most of thire their practice match but carlton won by a mile because Hawthorn were inefficient and Carlton cooly took all their chances (It's getting to be a habit). This is why they made the GF last year and will be thereabouts this year, given a good run with injuries. In particular O'Reilly and Mansfield could be terrific pick-ups (like Spalding in '95) or could be injured the whole year (like McGuane in '98)

 

[Pessimistic]

Latest odds - seems about right

Comments - Carlton seem quite long - should be equal to adelaide - who should be a little longer. some people are fancying Collingwood - obviously not collingwood fans who usually back heavily this early. perhaps collingwood should be near to 8-10 spot
Fremantle are way out - they can't really be that bad
Not sure about Hawthorn but I rate them as much better than sydney. Perhaps it's the difficult draw

Team/Player Dividend
ESSENDON 4.25
KANGAROOS 5.00
BRISBANE 6.50
ADELAIDE 12.00
WESTERN BULLDOGS 13.00
WEST COAST 13.00
ST KILDA 15.00
CARLTON 15.00
HAWTHORN 21.00
SYDNEY 21.00
GEELONG 31.00
PORT ADELAIDE 31.00
RICHMOND 41.00
MELBOURNE 41.00
COLLINGWOOD 61.00
FREMANTLE 126.00

 

[mary]

I think Brisbane will struggle this year. They have problems in the ruck. Their main ruck is injured , a knee. Wont be back at the earliest round 3. Their 2nd ruck is a youngster, who has an injured ankle. Their 3rd is a Syndey reject, who is not a good ruck. The 4th was a rookie last year, and is just not in the same league as the rest.
also they struggle in the conversion rate of the forward line.
So I wouldn't put my money on them.

 

[Pessimistic]

The Ruck is always interesting. Especially this year

Both the Saints and Bombers have a transferee as the main ruckman. Both playrd very well in the pre-season but many people still have doubts. If either were injured then spider and Alessio would have to move back there with an adverse effect on the team as a whole
Adelaide's season seems to hinge on whether Sean Rehn plays well all year. Cynically it's the differnece between 1st and 12th
North seem to have stocked up well with McKernan, Capuano and Burton Unlike recent years it looks like they will always have a ruckman. Similarly Hawthorn have three Ruck/ forwards in Salmon, O'Farrel, Thompson (and a couple of younger ones on the way. Acouple of years ago it was Salmon or Holland !
Carlton and Richmond have big hopes for Allen and Ottens, But Geelong is hoping that King will do the business

 

[Power Mad]

Re those odds posted by Pess, I can't understand why St Kilda's are that short or why Port's are as long as they are.

Have the Saints picked up any one of note other than Old Man Monkey? If not, why should their stocks suddenly improve this year?

Port finished seventh last year and have a young, developing squad. No reason why they shouldn't at least hold their spot in 2000.

Those odds are probably for the premiership. Odds for the top eight usually have Port as favoured to make it.

 

[Shinboners]

I wouldn't worry too much about the odds. The odds aren't only just determined by what what the bookmakers think, but also by the amount of money being bet on a team by the punters.

Not AFL related, but punting related. A couple of seasons ago, Manchester United were something like 12 points ahead of Arsenal in the English Premier League. Manchester bookmaker, Fred Done decided that it was all over and paid out on all bets for a United championship. Four months later, Arsenal won the title. There's a lesson about counting and chickens in this story.

 

[nobody really]

The betting odds are set by bookies only to start with. After a while they are adjusted depending on the amount bet, so they eventually reflect a sort of combined mass opinion of punters.

Having said that I think that although the odds have the teams in very roughly the right order, the top three seem way too short compared to the rest. North & Essendon the other night looked ordinary, especially North. Brisbane have a good chance yes, as do the other two, but not that much better than the next four or five.

But its all just opinion at the moment. Some clubs have been playing full lists, others have been trying rookies. We won't really know much about the real form until at least round seven or so.

 

[crows talls]

Pessimistic: Adelaide's season seems to hinge on whether Sean Rehn plays well all year. Cynically it's the differnece between 1st and 12th.

Gee thats a bit tough. Rehn is important but this year Crows have Clarke, Marsh and Biglands as backup. Last year they were down to just Pittman on the verge of retirement and two rookie list hopefuls (not even draft picks).

If Rehn is even half effective Crows now have enough effective talls to worry any team. Their backup alone is arguably the equal of many other teams ruck strength.

 

[Dan26]

Shinboner,

That's a very good story about Arsenal winning the Championship two years ago.

If Arsenal had played Man U in a Grbad Final that year, who would have won ?

Who cares, becasue Arsenal finished on top, an PROVED they were the best side of the year.

One match doesn't mean anything (in terms of proving how good you are. That has already been proved over the 1999 season)

These AFL odds on winning the premieship are farcical. You are more or less betting on how a team will go in a one-off maych in September against a one-off opponent 9 months from now.

The eventual Grand Finalists are based as much on luck, and a good final draw as ability, nowadays.

You should be able to bet on top spot. Luck plays too much of a part in making the GF. With all due respect to Carlton, they were not that good in 1999, and can count themslves very lucky that they even made it as far as the preliminary final.

If you bet on a team to win the premiership (hence believing they are the best), and that team finishes top, you should be rewarded. As a punter, your predictions were correct. The team you chose WAS the best, as you predicted.

How can you bet on a one-off match 9 months from now ?

 

[Mong]

As a Crows supporter it pains me to say it, but my honest opinion is that they will either miss the eight or scrape in to 7th or 8th only making up the numbers.

It is common belief that the Crows forward line is lacking but I think this area is going to be good this year but I have doubts over their midfield. If their midfield performs well they will do alright.

The wildcards that help them could be Jarman if he plays in the midfield and Johnson if he stays injury free. Along with McLeod and Ricciuto could form an awesome midfield. Apart from those players they lack quality consistent midfielders.

Just my opinion, hope i'm wrong and we rturn to top 4 (premiership a little optimistic).

 

[Pessimistic]

I just added the betting for discussion point - It's usually a good starting point for developing your own predictions.
No way would you bet because you could take your $50 and bet it on 'certainties' on individual games and double your money with very low risk. You could easily make say $4 for every dollar invested which is close to north or essendon's odds.

I think some people do put money on those clubs which seem to have long odds then bet against them once they make the finals - some sort of win-win situation

Carlton would be my choice here, I remember they were 16-1 at the beginning of '95, after they had been ejected from the '94 finals after losing to melbourne.

By the way, crow talls, I agree with you on the rehn issue, that's why I use the word cynically.

As for the crows, if they make the finals, watch out. even the new finals system might not stop them

But hands off Crawford. I think that was a little mischief on behalf of the Adelaide press (se AFL site, news)

 

[Tim]

Dan24, you are obviously pretty convinced of the merit of rewarding the top team at the end of the H&A as premiers rather than the GF winners and you are welcome to your opinion. However, most people don't share your opinion. Apart from soccer - which you refer to continuously - can you name one other major sports competition which doesn't use a GF to decide the champion? Why not?
The minor premiership can be just as arbitrary as any GF. In 1993, Essendon were top by 1.6% from Carlton - the two teams had played a draw during the season, just one more point by Carlton in that match would have seen them "premiers". In 1998, North beat the Bulldogs by 5 points in rd 22 to take top spot - if the minor premiership was "IT" then that game would have been a GF in everything but name. In years where the top team doesn't win the GF it's generally because the difference in quality is not high. We have an even competition in the AFL, performance "on the day" is as good a differentiator as any. You quote luck of the draw in respect to the finals - playing the eighth team (an interstate one at that) in week one, getting week two off, playing the sixth team in week three is not a tough draw yet it still proved too much for the '99 Bombers. Unlucky - better luck this year.

 

[Pete]

Dan,
I believe the Minor Premier should be rewarded money wise but to consider them to be a premier is crap.
When the AFL draw is as flawed as it is currently where:
1) Some teams including Essendon must play some other teams twice (Id love North to play Collingwood twice)
2) A Minor Premiership could hinge on drawing dud teams to play in the last 7 games of the season (Allowing for 1))

So therefore until teams all play each other twice or once even your proposal cannot occur.

North Melbourne in Melbourne 4 Eva
Pete

 

[Norwood Redlegs]

Power to finish sixth at the end of the year. Still lack a quality forward to kick at least 70+ goals in the year.

 

[Roylion]

Injuries are definitely the key, which is why predicting these things is so very difficult. Even though I support the Brisbane Lions, I wouldn't be surprised if Mary's assessment of the Lions is correct.

Brisbane has a couple of weaknesses which are a bit of worry...
The first is their forward line, although I suppose if you have one of the best defences and midfields going around the ball is going to get up there often enough for players to convert and win a reasonable amount of matches.

I agree with Mary in saying the Lions' biggest weakness is the ruck section. Last year Clarke and Keating worked very well together in tandem and more importantly for most of the year, stayed injury free, (which in Keating's case has been a rarity). However with Clarke gone, Keating out for possibly the first three rounds and Brisbane travelling away for six out of the first seven rounds, they might struggle early in the piece, which could affect their overall ladder placing.

The eight sides I think will play off in the finals are in rough order.... Essendon, Kangaroos, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Carlton.

West Coast, Hawthorn, Melbourne and possibly Richmond might challenge for the last two spots.

I don't think Fremantle, Collingwood, Geelong or Sydney have any chance at all in making the eight for this year.

 

[rewind]

Only the Eastern States of Australia will still be tuned in during September. If any of the SA/WA teams make the finals it will be WCE. I had a lot of trouble woeking out 7 & 8, this does show they are only there to make up the numbers.

This is around how they will finish.

Essendon
North Melbourne
Brisbane
Western Bulldogs
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Carlton
West Coast

Geelong
Richmond
Adelaide
Sydney
Collingwood
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Fremantle

This year will be the most lob sidded since Carltons 20 wins in 1995. Essendon will win around 19 games and the Roos and Lions will win around 17 games each. Essendon were by far the best team in 1999 (by the way I agree with Dan24's idea for a minor premiership meaning more) Essendon will be stronger this year with "new recruits" Hird, Lucas and Barnes.

So will the Kangaroos with the addtition of Calthorpe and Colbert.

Adelaide will win around 9 games and will not see finals action while the dark horse has to be Hawthorn, they will make the top 6, Just.

Poor Freo will battle it out with themselves for the spoon.

Crawford and Harvey will fight it out for the Brownlow. Lloyd will win the Coleman medal if he plays 18+ games.

Mark my words, the AFL need to do something about the dominance of Essendon and North as it will be clearly seen this year, especially Essendon, imagine the roof closed at Col Stadium against an interstate team, there will be 50,000 Essendon fans to 2,000.

SEE THE BOMBERS FLY UP TO WIN THE 2000 CUP