Analysis Premiership credentials

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ScragCity said:
Funny how such a crap side was playing in a grand final 4 games ago. They seem to have a couple of decent players. Who were the two most recent Coleman medallists?

West Coast will be a good side this year. Probably top four.
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I hate Geelong let us make that clear. But they have not been a premiership side for quite a while, including last year. They are slow and reliant on two or three class players. They are old and getting slow by the week. I hope they are good enough to play finals against us and we beat them. By just one point and they are out and we win the flag. Geelong are not good enough to win a flag. we are.
 
Dogsman16 said:
I always love comparing the current team to that 2016 finals unit and seeing the differences as well as which aspects of the team have got stronger and which ones have got weaker.

To me the 3 definite improvements from that side are the KPF options (not only quality but also depth) the midfield (as good as it was then this one is even better) and the ruck combination.

2016 KPFs
Cordy & Stringer
vs
2020 KPFs
Naughton & Bruce

Clear upgrade in mind. Naughton is a considerably better KPF in almost every single facet of the game in comparison to Cordy (apart from defensive pressure which is around similar). 2021 Bruce also looks to be a substantially better player than 2020 Bruce and 2016 Stringer was in a very lean patch of form near and during those final series. Throw in depth like JUH and Schache in comparison to the non-existent depth we had in 2016 (Redpath unfortunately always injured) and 2021 is sooooo much better.

2016 Midfield
Bontempelli, Macrae, Dahlhaus, Liberatore, Hunter + pinch hitters such as Dunkley, McLean, Picken, Smith etc.
vs
2020 Midfield
Bontempelli, Macrae, Treloar, Liberatore, Dunkley, Smith, Hunter, Lipinski

2020 is better. Bont, Macrae are better players than 2016 versions. Dunkley substantially better than 2016 version. Hunter and Liberatore probably around the same level and Treloar at his best is an elite mid which Dahlhaus was a little bit off during those times. Throw in Smith as an A-grade level wingman and 2020 is about as good as it gets.

2016 rucks
Roughhead + Boyd
vs
2020 rucks
Martin + English

I'd give our current ruck stocks a slight edge. Probably due to English having more runs on the board than Boyd and Martin being the more seasoned ruck option. Boyd obviously starred in that GF but English probably the more consistent performer.

I think the major area where we don't stack up well in comparison is the small forward grouping. The 2016 small forwards of Dickson, Picken and Smith (and the form they were in) is an area where we don't have the cattle yet. VDM can fill one of those slots but I'd say we need to find another solid contributor regarding closing speed, pressure and forward nous. Also one of Lipinski/Hunter doesn't really get much midfield time so they more play the role of a half forward rather than pure wing. Neither are at that level in terms of a forward. Where/how does Wallis fit into this. Is his role completely redundant? I personally think it is.

Our small-medium defender probably slightly below our 2016 grouping. Moz, Wood, and Boyd were stars and JJ was a much better player then than now. Throw in Biggs and that grouping was high level. Our current crop is still very good though. Williams, Daniel, Crozier, Wood, Duryea and Dale gives us great depth, quality and coverage. Where/does JJ fit in with everyone available?

KPD the most interesting comparison. Keath probably the most assured KPD we have had in the past 5 years but the 2nd option is a major question mark. However 2016 KPD's in Hamling and Roberts didn't really answer the question until we needed them to in the finals. Gardiner/Young/Cordy could be the difference if one of them goes to the next level.

But really the two question marks are. Can we find the pressure from our small forward grouping to be a premiership level? And who can fill the position of secondary KPD to a good level? I think every other aspect of our team is good enough to win a premiership currently especially with our midfield.
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I was gonna ask the same question, what is your KPD depth like. Is Lewis Young the better option of the three? Cordy the most established of those three, but not exactly elite, but could play the 2nd tall option.

I know you recruited Naughton as a key defender, and he could always go back there, but he's your best key forward and is more likely a lock as the Key Forward for some time soon at the Kennel. Bruce is a bit inconsistent against good opposition, but give him supply and he's competitive. I guess English could consistently play that Key Forward/2nd Ruck role with Martin now down there. And you still have Jamara and Schache in the two's, so its not like you don't have options to explore through the year in for the Second Key Forward role behind Naughton. With all the midfield depth you have, you can allow Bont more time down forward too.

I think your midfield bats very deep this year, but my main concern is the second Key Defender, and the pressure forwards. I'm also not sure whether you still have that rebound run like you had in 2016, but you have some speed there. I can't say I've watched all your games this year to fairly assess whether you can go all the way, but I rate you guys highly this year. I was very bullish on you last year, but I may have predicted it one year too soon.

How is Weightman and West going? Are they ready to at least play the pressure forward role... I rate their upside.

What's happening to Toby McClean?
 
perro_loco said:
I hate Geelong let us make that clear. But they have not been a premiership side for quite a while, including last year. They are slow and reliant on two or three class players. They are old and getting slow by the week. I hope they are good enough to play finals against us and we beat them. By just one point and they are out and we win the flag. Geelong are not good enough to win a flag. we are.
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We won't win it this year... and if we do, it will feel like pinching one tbh. Same with last year, it would've felt like we pinched it rather than win it.
 

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CatRiot said:
I was gonna ask the same question, what is your KPD depth like. Is Lewis Young the better option of the three? Cordy the most established of those three, but not exactly elite, but could play the 2nd tall option.

I know you recruited Naughton as a key defender, and he could always go back there, but he's your best key forward and is more likely a lock as the Key Forward for some time soon at the Kennel. Bruce is a bit inconsistent against good opposition, but give him supply and he's competitive. I guess English could consistently play that Key Forward/2nd Ruck role with Martin now down there. And you still have Jamara and Schache in the two's, so its not like you don't have options to explore through the year in for the Second Key Forward role behind Naughton. With all the midfield depth you have, you can allow Bont more time down forward too.

I think your midfield bats very deep this year, but my main concern is the second Key Defender, and the pressure forwards. I'm also not sure whether you still have that rebound run like you had in 2016, but you have some speed there. I can't say I've watched all your games this year to fairly assess whether you can go all the way, but I rate you guys highly this year. I was very bullish on you last year, but I may have predicted it one year too soon.

How is Weightman and West going? Are they ready to at least play the pressure forward role... I rate their upside.

What's happening to Toby McClean?
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Young was out of favour for a long time, but he really pushed his case for a more permanent role on the team last week. Cordy is a bit undersized and looked out of shape recently. Buku Khamis isn't KPD height, but he's a lot like Easton Wood, can play above his height. He's coming on really well and I wouldn't be surprised to see him debut soon.

Weightman's getting a run through the middle in VFL to build his stamina. West is great, brings the pressure more than almost anyone on our list, but is more of a mid than a forward.

McLean's six to eight weeks away apparently after his ACL last year.
 
CatRiot said:
I was gonna ask the same question, what is your KPD depth like. Is Lewis Young the better option of the three? Cordy the most established of those three, but not exactly elite, but could play the 2nd tall option.

I know you recruited Naughton as a key defender, and he could always go back there, but he's your best key forward and is more likely a lock as the Key Forward for some time soon at the Kennel. Bruce is a bit inconsistent against good opposition, but give him supply and he's competitive. I guess English could consistently play that Key Forward/2nd Ruck role with Martin now down there. And you still have Jamara and Schache in the two's, so its not like you don't have options to explore through the year in for the Second Key Forward role behind Naughton. With all the midfield depth you have, you can allow Bont more time down forward too.

I think your midfield bats very deep this year, but my main concern is the second Key Defender, and the pressure forwards. I'm also not sure whether you still have that rebound run like you had in 2016, but you have some speed there. I can't say I've watched all your games this year to fairly assess whether you can go all the way, but I rate you guys highly this year. I was very bullish on you last year, but I may have predicted it one year too soon.

How is Weightman and West going? Are they ready to at least play the pressure forward role... I rate their upside.

What's happening to Toby McClean?
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My major 2 question marks are the ones you hit the head off. 2nd Key defender and who are our small pressure forwards. I'd say only Vandermeer is a lock for one of the small/pressure forward roles. Need 2 more genuine options. Personally I think Cavarra is the man for one of them, quick and he plays like a genuine small which we need to compliment our tall forwards. Not someone like Wallis who basically plays as a small full forward.

Young could grab that 2nd Key defender spot. He has all the attributes. Not a great user but if he uses the ball within his limitations then he will be a solid option.
 
weltschmerz said:
Young was out of favour for a long time, but he really pushed his case for a more permanent role on the team last week. Cordy is a bit undersized and looked out of shape recently. Buku Khamis isn't KPD height, but he's a lot like Easton Wood, can play above his height. He's coming on really well and I wouldn't be surprised to see him debut soon.

Weightman's getting a run through the middle in VFL to build his stamina. West is great, brings the pressure more than almost anyone on our list, but is more of a mid than a forward.

McLean's six to eight weeks away apparently after his ACL last year.
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Dogsman16 said:
My major 2 question marks are the ones you hit the head off. 2nd Key defender and who are our small pressure forwards. I'd say only Vandermeer is a lock for one of the small/pressure forward roles. Need 2 more genuine options. Personally I think Cavarra is the man for one of them, quick and he plays like a genuine small which we need to compliment our tall forwards. Not someone like Wallis who basically plays as a small full forward.

Young could grab that 2nd Key defender spot. He has all the attributes. Not a great user but if he uses the ball within his limitations then he will be a solid option.
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Its probably off the cards to play Naughton back as a Key Defender and rather experiment with the likes of Jamara, Schache and English in combination with Bruce, I mean why would you when you have the lowest average Against score atm... However, was Naughton ever played as a Key Defender at the Dogs? I can't even remember... If so, what was he like down there out of curiousity?
 
CatRiot said:
Its probably off the cards to play Naughton back as a Key Defender and rather experiment with the likes of Jamara, Schache and English in combination with Bruce, I mean why would you when you have the lowest average Against score atm... However, was Naughton ever played as a Key Defender at the Dogs? I can't even remember... If so, what was he like down there out of curiousity?
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I mean... its always easier to develop a player into the Key Defender role than a Key Forward one... so I guess you kind of have to roll with Naughton up front I think, unless his form drops off a cliff...
 
CatRiot said:
Its probably off the cards to play Naughton back as a Key Defender and rather experiment with the likes of Jamara, Schache and English in combination with Bruce, I mean why would you when you have the lowest average Against score atm... However, was Naughton ever played as a Key Defender at the Dogs? I can't even remember... If so, what was he like down there out of curiousity?
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His entire first season he played there. 4th in the best and fairest. But we weren't much chop then.

First of all due to our midfield we really do dictate which end of the ground the ball is more often. Naughton is also ideally suited to the CHF position. Has a great tank, his defensive pressure for his size is unbelievable and he draws a lot of the defensive attention. It's now that Bruce and English are cashing in due to this and both can thank Naughton for a huge chunk of their form.

His kicking can be iffy though and you don't want that in defensive 50. Also key defenders are easy to obtain via trade.

Another huge reason why Naughton shouldn't go back is that when Jamarra is a 3rd to 4th year player (often when KPF's take that big step), Josh bruce will be 31/32 years of age. If Naughton's back we then have to find another partner for Jamarra. I don't think it will ever happen though. Naughton is engrained as the main man up forward and I don't see that changing. Especially when English/Bruce/Jamarra are more suited in the deeper role.
 
"Naughton back or forward" is one of the enduring BF Dogs debates. I suggest we clone him. I also suggest we set him up with Izzy Huntington to produce future parent-child selections with the best leap in Australia.
 
ScragCity said:
The squiggle gives us a good chance of being minor Premiers. It would be nice to do that for the first time in our history. Obviously it is far less significant than a flag though.

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hmmm Melbourne and Carlton a bit over rated by Squiggle ?
 

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Flags_In_The_Bag said:
Is that saying 1 win predicted by North? if so who would they beat?
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It doesn’t quite work like that. If they are, say, a 10% chance to win each of the remaining 17 games, the probabilities are summed to give them an average of 1.7 wins. That is, they’re not predicted to beat any particular side, but over the course of these games they are likely to pick up a win at some point.
 
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