Prediction Premiership Window

[baldandbroke]

We all know about this famed period of time when your club is primed to take a premiership ... we also have seen two teams in the last few years find a crack and shove it open before it appeared the window was even of the glazier's truck.

Digging back through some old stuff, I found myself in 2016 hoping that we would improve - then have a real shot in 2017/2018.

That was based on my own gut feel, and stuff like this:

https://www.fiveaa.com.au/show/phil-walsh-eyes-2017-premiership-window

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport...w/news-story/0e379f7a3202c771c53436012b1cf70c

I look at that article, and listen to Phil (jeepers we all missed out on seeing something special with that bloke) and find myself in a bit of "maybe" land.

(a) Will we continue to improve in 2018 and dominate the comp in regular season and finals, and stamp ourselves as powerhouse team that will contend and win premierships over the next short period ... the old "you need to lose one" might just apply to this squad?

Will it last beyond 2018? I dunno. Some of our stars are getting on, and if we lose Sloane we will be set back a little.

OR (b) Will we stumble back into the pack - get beaten in the finals, and be remembered like the 2005 / 2006 teams that "should" have won a flag?

I'm voting for (a) because I can't see the reasons for us to drop at the moment. Losing the players we did was not as massive a negative as some seem to think, especially when you look at who we picked up and who is coming through our own ranks.

 

[GrommoT]

 

[Redleg Crow]

There is no window. Windows are for clubs who think you need to tank first in order to win a flag. Just go out and win the fricker.

 

[Coopers]

We should be just as good this year, probably next. Hopefully this means good enough to go all the way this time.

The 3 years after that, things get interesting, as some of the real good players age and output drops. However, we have about 10 guys who "could be just as good" that aren't even in our 22 at this point. Notably the kids from the last 2 drafts seem to be rippers, and Doedee + Keath who are older, etc.

The optimist in me says we should be able to contend finals for the next 5 years. Contending is not necessarily winning it all though. Are we that good? We have to be close.

 

[Bearded Clam]

There is no window. Windows are for clubs who think you need to tank first in order to win a flag. Just go out and win the fricker.

Yep.. I agree. And with our current youth and some very good picks in this years super draft, with two first rounders already, plus possibly an early 2nd from Carlton and probably at a minimum an end of first round if Sloane does go... we will add to this list of great young talent that will be teamed up with the two crouch brothers for the next decade.

 

[kulak]

There is no window. Windows are for clubs who think you need to tank first in order to win a flag. Just go out and win the fricker.

Of course there is a window

Brisbane are not in the window this year. They will be when their talented young players have played 100+ games (if they don’t leave first)

We are in the window because our best players are 27 ish years old and have played 150 ish games.

 

[GreyCrow]

Option B. With some A mixed in. Sure get it done this year but I can see 2019 as well.

2020 , wish I could have that foresight

 

[JPetro83]

We blew it! 2017 was there for the taking! we choked and we lost to Richmond!.. bloody Richmond.. wow. Still in shock. Took us 19 years to get back there.. busted our guts and we choked. still shattered. I have that feeling we will miss the 8 and fall apart. its so bloody hard to make a GF..

 

[Betts are off]

For me windows are for teams that are too reliant on 3-4 players. Top heavy teams can be great, but they also fall off a cliff when those guys aren't completely dominating.

And that's just not the crows problem, we've built this roster with talent across all lines. We are in a position where there are multiple 1st and 2nd round players cant get a game because the 3-5th round players and rookie drafted players that we developed are playing too well to give up their position. And while those guys may not have the ceiling, they provide ridiculous depth that makes these 'windows' basically superfluous.

People point to players like Sloane, Tex, Jacobs and Eddie as potential big future losses, and sure when the day comes that they call it a career it wont be great. But before that happens we will have 2-4 more FA periods and drafts to restock players, and in that time we will continue to develop young guys like Milera, Doedee, Gooch, Poholke, Fogarty and McPherson.

 

[Jarman3]

I think we're smack bang in the middle of it right now, assuming we haven't dropped our bundle mentally after working so hard to get there last year and blowing it - my worst nightmare now is a post-2007 Port Adelaide scenario, but I don't think it'll come to that.

Team looks pretty solid in most areas, even with the players we've lost. My main concern is the ruck - if Sauce gets injured or falls out of form then I don't have a whole lot of confidence in the depth there. I also have some concerns around the durability of some players - Tex and Talia, in particular, just didn't seem to be covering the ground too well for much of last year. Hopefully it was just niggles that they've been able to get rid of over the off season. If it's a sign of the beginning of the end then I don't have great confidence that we can replace them with players of similar calibre.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

We blew it! 2017 was there for the taking! we choked and we lost to Richmond!.. bloody Richmond.. wow. Still in shock. Took us 19 years to get back there.. busted our guts and we choked. still shattered. I have that feeling we will miss the 8 and fall apart. its so bloody hard to make a GF..

Man, I hope that you sleep with a plastic sheet.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

I’m very bullish about us, we’re in the window now with our current elite and when Betts, Slone, Tex, Talia go I’m confident in the next 2 brackets of guys to be just as tough. We’re going to compete ala Sydney style for the next 7-8 years.

Possibly longer if we nail the draft.

 

[Golumless]

Should we not fall apart this season, the window is most likely open until 2020/2021.

 

[Smoooothy]

I see us very similar to west coast in 2015 (was that the year they made the GF?), they've struggled since to recapture that form

it's open at the moment, but it could slam shut within 3 weeks of the season starting

 

[GrommoT]

... The optimist in me says we should be able to contend finals for the next 5 years. Contending is not necessarily winning it all though. Are we that good? We have to be close.

That's really the most a club can do - get into a position of having a strong and multifaceted list that is capable of contending.

Even if we get to that state, there are quite a few other factors that can easily prevent a team from winning the GF - injuries, how strong other clubs are at the time, the unpredictable bounce of the ball at a key moment. ******* umpires, and just plain luck (which could also mean a club could come out of the clouds and win it).

 

[John Who]

Premiership window is basically to do with a high probability of making it to the Grand Final (and hopefully winning one). A lot of people mistaken this quote "premiership window" as a year we have to win a Premiership. Wrong!
This year, there's at least 6 teams that look likely to be in a "premiership window". For the sake of an argument, these teams are:
- Crows
- Cats
- Tigers
- Swans
- GWS
- ?Port

Though you can't fit all 6 teams into the GF, and certainly can't split up the premiership cup and divide it into 6. Only 1 can win it per year, and each year resets itself in premiership chances. Our premiership window is probably the next 2 years. But predictions beyond this probably is more a pot-luck guess rather than an educated one.

 

[PCORF]

I picked option B. If we don't take our chance this year it is over for a while. Must finish top 4 and get the double chance, and we'll be a chance in the 9th month of the year.

 

[Samcro24]

We blew it! 2017 was there for the taking! we choked and we lost to Richmond!.. bloody Richmond.. wow. Still in shock. Took us 19 years to get back there.. busted our guts and we choked. still shattered. I have that feeling we will miss the 8 and fall apart. its so bloody hard to make a GF..

R U OK M8?

 

[PCORF]

We blew it! 2017 was there for the taking! we choked and we lost to Richmond!.. bloody Richmond.. wow. Still in shock. Took us 19 years to get back there.. busted our guts and we choked. still shattered. I have that feeling we will miss the 8 and fall apart. its so bloody hard to make a GF..

You could possibly be correct. Sometimes the season is hard to predict.

Yes we could not afford to underestimate Richmond, we got too ahead of ourselves last year. We will either learn or not learn.

Yes it is indeed hard to win in this league.

 

[Thetrader15]

Our window is open, but so too are other teams. Look at what Port have done over the preseason. Their window is wide open too

 

[baldandbroke]

We'll know by round 10 if we have improved or not.

 

[Ramify]

Our windowi s open, but so too are other teams. Look at what Port have done over the preseason. Their window is wide open too
View attachment 472460

Did they sack Kern? Did they recruit the personality types that drag you to a flag?

I keep hearing this about the Paps but all I see is the same team full of half hearted spuds led by the same clueless muppets,talking the same load of waffle but with some shiney average toys added on top to give their dwindling supporter base some hope.

If we werent 1 Bryce Gibbs away from a flag then they werent 1 Motlop, Watts and Rockliff away from beating a top 8 side.

 

[Thetrader15]

Did they sack Kern? Did they recruit the personality types that drag you to a flag?

Kern is the most sought after coach in the comp. The pooer had to fight off GC who's previous 2 coaches were McKenna and Eade (lol).

Then, look at their recruits - DFAs Trengrove, Thomas, McKenzie - Boy oh boy, wowee

Jack too soft even for a Melbourne player Watts
Steven (insert popular off season image here) Motlop

Tom (grumpy but already photoshopped into the port leadership geoup) Rockliff

They are really going to beat up on some lower ranked teams this year.

Plus, they are making squillions of Yen from their off field arrangements

 

[GreyCrow]

Port are in the Premiership is this year window

Anything else is a failure

 

[Slippery Pete]

Our window is open, but so too are other teams. Look at what Port have done over the preseason. Their window is wide open too
View attachment 472460

You gotta watch for those jagged edges.

We'll know by round 10 if we have improved or not.

That’s really a silly, arbitrary comment with no basis in fact or reality.

I don’t want us to be flying by Round 10, I want us to be flying in September.