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#1
For a long time in the draft era footy people have talked in terms of premiership windows. The likes of Sydney and Geelong have been better than most at remaining at the pointy end of the ladder, while Adelaide have never truly bottomed out and deserve massive credit for their list management.
But, for all that, Geelong are now under the microscope after two bad prelim losses and only a couple of finals wins since their last flag. Adelaide are about to play in their first GF for 19 years which seems bizarre in terms of them being a club I consider one of the strongest in the competition. Sydney have made a couple of GF since their last flag and went into at least one of them as favourite, but this year are out of the top four.
Meanwhile, consider the following performances;
Richmond 2017 - made GF in a year most pundits thought they would fail to make the 8.
Bulldogs 2016 - premiers after most tipped them to finish between 5th and 10th.
Eagles 2015 - GF after most experts tipped them to finish outside the 8, having finished 10th in 2014.
Port 2014 - 3 points away from stopping the Hawthorn 3 peat at the second hurdle in the prelim after being tipped to struggle that year.
Looking at the 3 surprise packets other than Richmond, the other thing they had in common was they went into the following season heavily favoured. Port were tipped to go at least one better, as were the Eagles, while the Bulldogs were tipped by many to at least back up their flag by being contenders. Port missed the finals for the next two years, the Eagles were knocked out in week one and two of the next two finals series and the Bulldogs also missed altogether.
While some clubs have built strong lists that remain in the premiership window, these ‘outsiders’ have got to the pointy end four years in a row, then fallen just as fast. Where are they coming from? Is it that the competition is so even that one radical game plan can catch the competition on the hop (ie Weagles Web) then gets found out?
Just a strange pattern emerging of one season bolters that’s flies in the face of premiership window and list management logic.
But, for all that, Geelong are now under the microscope after two bad prelim losses and only a couple of finals wins since their last flag. Adelaide are about to play in their first GF for 19 years which seems bizarre in terms of them being a club I consider one of the strongest in the competition. Sydney have made a couple of GF since their last flag and went into at least one of them as favourite, but this year are out of the top four.
Meanwhile, consider the following performances;
Richmond 2017 - made GF in a year most pundits thought they would fail to make the 8.
Bulldogs 2016 - premiers after most tipped them to finish between 5th and 10th.
Eagles 2015 - GF after most experts tipped them to finish outside the 8, having finished 10th in 2014.
Port 2014 - 3 points away from stopping the Hawthorn 3 peat at the second hurdle in the prelim after being tipped to struggle that year.
Looking at the 3 surprise packets other than Richmond, the other thing they had in common was they went into the following season heavily favoured. Port were tipped to go at least one better, as were the Eagles, while the Bulldogs were tipped by many to at least back up their flag by being contenders. Port missed the finals for the next two years, the Eagles were knocked out in week one and two of the next two finals series and the Bulldogs also missed altogether.
While some clubs have built strong lists that remain in the premiership window, these ‘outsiders’ have got to the pointy end four years in a row, then fallen just as fast. Where are they coming from? Is it that the competition is so even that one radical game plan can catch the competition on the hop (ie Weagles Web) then gets found out?
Just a strange pattern emerging of one season bolters that’s flies in the face of premiership window and list management logic.

