Premiership Windows vs One Season Stars

BK Eaglesfan

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For a long time in the draft era footy people have talked in terms of premiership windows. The likes of Sydney and Geelong have been better than most at remaining at the pointy end of the ladder, while Adelaide have never truly bottomed out and deserve massive credit for their list management.

But, for all that, Geelong are now under the microscope after two bad prelim losses and only a couple of finals wins since their last flag. Adelaide are about to play in their first GF for 19 years which seems bizarre in terms of them being a club I consider one of the strongest in the competition. Sydney have made a couple of GF since their last flag and went into at least one of them as favourite, but this year are out of the top four.

Meanwhile, consider the following performances;

Richmond 2017 - made GF in a year most pundits thought they would fail to make the 8.
Bulldogs 2016 - premiers after most tipped them to finish between 5th and 10th.
Eagles 2015 - GF after most experts tipped them to finish outside the 8, having finished 10th in 2014.
Port 2014 - 3 points away from stopping the Hawthorn 3 peat at the second hurdle in the prelim after being tipped to struggle that year.

Looking at the 3 surprise packets other than Richmond, the other thing they had in common was they went into the following season heavily favoured. Port were tipped to go at least one better, as were the Eagles, while the Bulldogs were tipped by many to at least back up their flag by being contenders. Port missed the finals for the next two years, the Eagles were knocked out in week one and two of the next two finals series and the Bulldogs also missed altogether.

While some clubs have built strong lists that remain in the premiership window, these ‘outsiders’ have got to the pointy end four years in a row, then fallen just as fast. Where are they coming from? Is it that the competition is so even that one radical game plan can catch the competition on the hop (ie Weagles Web) then gets found out?

Just a strange pattern emerging of one season bolters that’s flies in the face of premiership window and list management logic.
 

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Benny78

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#2
For a long time in the draft era footy people have talked in terms of premiership windows. The likes of Sydney and Geelong have been better than most at remaining at the pointy end of the ladder, while Adelaide have never truly bottomed out and deserve massive credit for their list management.

But, for all that, Geelong are now under the microscope after two bad prelim losses and only a couple of finals wins since their last flag. Adelaide are about to play in their first GF for 19 years which seems bizarre in terms of them being a club I consider one of the strongest in the competition. Sydney have made a couple of GF since their last flag and went into at least one of them as favourite, but this year are out of the top four.

Meanwhile, consider the following performances;

Richmond 2017 - made GF in a year most pundits thought they would fail to make the 8.
Bulldogs 2016 - premiers after most tipped them to finish between 5th and 10th.
Eagles 2015 - GF after most experts tipped them to finish outside the 8, having finished 10th in 2014.
Port 2014 - 3 points away from stopping the Hawthorn 3 peat at the second hurdle in the prelim after being tipped to struggle that year.

Looking at the 3 surprise packets other than Richmond, the other thing they had in common was they went into the following season heavily favoured. Port were tipped to go at least one better, as were the Eagles, while the Bulldogs were tipped by many to at least back up their flag by being contenders. Port missed the finals for the next two years, the Eagles were knocked out in week one and two of the next two finals series and the Bulldogs also missed altogether.

While some clubs have built strong lists that remain in the premiership window, these ‘outsiders’ have got to the pointy end four years in a row, then fallen just as fast. Where are they coming from? Is it that the competition is so even that one radical game plan can catch the competition on the hop (ie Weagles Web) then gets found out?

Just a strange pattern emerging of one season bolters that’s flies in the face of premiership window and list management logic.
Good read. Just want to point out Geelong like Adelaide have also never truly bottomed out in their history.
 

demondavey

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#3
A good thread. I think there is always going to be teams 'in the mix', whilst other teams have displayed pretty consistent finals performances and records. Those being Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong. Adelaide has always been a pretty consistent finals regular, as have North Melbourne and WC.

I don't think it takes much for a side to drop away the following year, competition is pretty rife, and unless you're a really good side (Hawks, Swans, Cats), you can find yourself overtaken.

I am not overly surprised Adelaide is there, their last two years have been solid. They've also just gone up a level or two this year. Richmond I am, but looking at it, they've consolidated their core group since 2013. Finals in 13,14,15. With a glitch last year, some clever recruiting, and now in a GF.

I think the WB will be back in the mix next year, as will Port. In fact one of those teams may feature in a GF. At a minimum teams like Melbourne and St Kilda have to play finals to get that experience, like the WB did and Adelaide has. I also think Adelaide and Richmond might be around the mark for a few years yet, they've got good lists and good experience.
 

PerthBoy86

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#4
I must've been in the minority who thought Richmond would finish top 8 then. I expected them to finish 4-6, though only the most optimistic would've put them in a GF. They have not only the talent but work hard and well as a team, like the Dogs. They're a team that's more than the sum of their parts.

I guess luck plays a role, but Richmond this year have been unlucky with a few close loses, and I'm not one to credit success with an 'easy draw' much. Dogs were also unlucky with injuries in 2016, and few predicted them to really challenge midway through the season, but an almost superhuman belief in the club arose later in the year. I don't know where it came from, exactly, but it just came together, and Richmond look similar this year.
 

demondavey

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I must've been in the minority who thought Richmond would finish top 8 then. I expected them to finish 4-6, though only the most optimistic would've put them in a GF. They have not only the talent but work hard and well as a team, like the Dogs. They're a team that's more than the sum of their parts.

I guess luck plays a role, but Richmond this year have been unlucky with a few close loses, and I'm not one to credit success with an 'easy draw' much. Dogs were also unlucky with injuries in 2016, and few predicted them to really challenge midway through the season, but an almost superhuman belief in the club arose later in the year. I don't know where it came from, exactly, but it just came together, and Richmond look similar this year.
Richmond look to have emulated the Dogs of 16, but they're coming up against a far harder opponent next week. They play as a team, and that should give hope to lots of sides out there that are almost there.

Like Hawthorn, Richmond does the basics right. Work rate, tackling, pressure acts, goal kicking, and a team first ethos. I think that we will see a lot more sides opting for a more dynamic forward line next year with a plethora of versatile mid sized players. That's why I think Geelong could be top 4 again if they get Stringer and Smith.

You need a lynchpin up forward to kick to, but you need a mobile attacking forward line where players can rotate through the midfield as well. Richmond is very much like the WB of 16.
 

markm106

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#7
It's been a fair turnaround by the Tigers. 13th last year with 8 wins and a percentage of 79. A total game style change. Smaller forward line and applying an insane amount of pressure. Interestingly after getting rid of Vickery they just couldn't find a replacement due to injury and form. And the smaller forward line has worked a treat.
I think Crows have been best team all year and they should win the GF. But I'll be interested in seeing how the Tigers structure up next year and if other clubs will look to them for inspiration. No doubt all teams will be focusing on pressure next year and players in the forward half who can't apply pressure will struggle.
 

PowerForGood

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#8
Small difference. Port made semi finals in 2013 as well, beating Collingwood at the G and losing to Geelong at the G by a couple of goals after leading at half time.
So not one season but I get your point.
 

PerthBoy86

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#9
Richmond look to have emulated the Dogs of 16, but they're coming up against a far harder opponent next week. They play as a team, and that should give hope to lots of sides out there that are almost there.

Like Hawthorn, Richmond does the basics right. Work rate, tackling, pressure acts, goal kicking, and a team first ethos. I think that we will see a lot more sides opting for a more dynamic forward line next year with a plethora of versatile mid sized players. That's why I think Geelong could be top 4 again if they get Stringer and Smith.

You need a lynchpin up forward to kick to, but you need a mobile attacking forward line where players can rotate through the midfield as well. Richmond is very much like the WB of 16.
They do, they do the hard, unglamorous stuff well and sometimes appear to play beyond their expected capacity, the anti GWS. I also agree Adelaide this year appear stronger than Sydney last year, but not by a lot. They haven't felt completely convincing dominant. Sydney were flogged in the qualifying final against a very fast GWS, who seems to have been better last year too, before flogging an ordinary Geelong who was shellshocked. The Dogs only wrestled control of the GF late in the game, so it wasn't a blowout. I am tipping Adelaide, but still give Richmond a very good chance. Both sides will be super hungry and determined but Adelaide still has the firepower when it comes down to it. If Richmond win they will have to out pressure a team that themselves showed phenomenal pressure the equal of them.
 

Johnny_Dogg4

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#10
Richmond this season remind me of Adelaide 2012

Easy fixture got them top4.
Easy finals fixture got them to a gf. Able to Gain momentum.

But nevertheless they still had to win these games. So credit to them

Difference was crows had to meet a superpower in hawks pf

Richmond will meet a very good team in crows gf
 

HeavyPop

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With the game becoming more based around pressure, I think you'll find teams having years like WB and Richmond where they do well but can't replicate it over a number of years. It wouldn't surprise me to see Richmond have a similar 2018 season to the Bulldogs 2017.
 

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PerthBoy86

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#13
With the game becoming more based around pressure, I think you'll find teams having years like WB and Richmond where they do well but can't replicate it over a number of years. It wouldn't surprise me to see Richmond have a similar 2018 season to the Bulldogs 2017.
Both seem driven a lot by heart and determination and teamwork. Something you can't buy. GWS has the players with the skills, but lack that. Crows have a bit more of that but have more to back it up. Tiger's list is decent but far from the best, but they do have Dusty who is an absolute gamechanger. Once teams like that lose that will and drive they drop off, as they can't win competently without putting in 100%. but it remains to be seen if the Tigers will in 2018. Despite what they say I do believe the hangover played a role for the Dogs this year, alongside teams adapting to their style, so I wonder if Richmond winning in 2017 could also mean the same for them in 18.
 

BK Eaglesfan

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It's been a fair turnaround by the Tigers. 13th last year with 8 wins and a percentage of 79. A total game style change. Smaller forward line and applying an insane amount of pressure. Interestingly after getting rid of Vickery they just couldn't find a replacement due to injury and form. And the smaller forward line has worked a treat.
I think Crows have been best team all year and they should win the GF. But I'll be interested in seeing how the Tigers structure up next year and if other clubs will look to them for inspiration. No doubt all teams will be focusing on pressure next year and players in the forward half who can't apply pressure will struggle.
Think that’s s big part of it, game plans catching the competition snoozing. That’s a massive improvement from Richmond year on year.

If it was St Kilda or Melbourne in the GF this thread wouldn’t exist as most people tipped them as the big improvers based on natural progression of a list and premiership window logic. Most people didn’t see this coming from Richmond at all and list profile wisdom wouldn’t have forecast it.
 

markm106

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Think that’s s big part of it, game plans catching the competition snoozing. That’s a massive improvement from Richmond year on year.

If it was St Kilda or Melbourne in the GF this thread wouldn’t exist as most people tipped them as the big improvers based on natural progression of a list and premiership window logic. Most people didn’t see this coming from Richmond at all and list profile wisdom wouldn’t have forecast it.
I think Melbourne and Saints are aiming more towards 2020. Not saying one before isn't possible given Dogs last year and Tigers effort so far this year. 2020 Melbourne will have the likes of Oliver Hogan Viney Petracca Hunt Brayshaw among others with over 100 games. If we keep the group together who knows. There doesn't seem to be any powerhouse around ATM like Cats Hawks Lions of recent times. This could open up the flag race from year to year which is good.
 

BK Eaglesfan

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I think Melbourne and Saints are aiming more towards 2020. Not saying one before isn't possible given Dogs last year and Tigers effort so far this year. 2020 Melbourne will have the likes of Oliver Hogan Viney Petracca Hunt Brayshaw among others with over 100 games. If we keep the group together who knows. There doesn't seem to be any powerhouse around ATM like Cats Hawks Lions of recent times. This could open up the flag race from year to year which is good.
This is where the happenings of the last few years make it interesting. While window wisdom says Melbourne and Saints are quite rightly primed to peak around 2019 /20, will someone else shoot up out of nowhere right when those teams are at their peak.

The Bulldogs last year and Richmond last night I think have ruined GWS’ premiership window. For all the young talent, Mumford, Shaw, Ward and to a lesser extent Johnson have been crucial to them. One of those four is now gone, two in decline and Ward probably a year or two behind. So all the planning that got them to 2016/17 didn’t even get them a GF appearance.
 

markm106

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This is where the happenings of the last few years make it interesting. While window wisdom says Melbourne and Saints are quite rightly primed to peak around 2019 /20, will someone else shoot up out of nowhere right when those teams are at their peak.

The Bulldogs last year and Richmond last night I think have ruined GWS’ premiership window. For all the young talent, Mumford, Shaw, Ward and to a lesser extent Johnson have been crucial to them. One of those four is now gone, two in decline and Ward probably a year or two behind. So all the planning that got them to 2016/17 didn’t even get them a GF appearance.
Just a very quick comment without much thought. But could totally see GWS get to the GF next year. Two losing prelims in a row and the list profile would have them just about flag favs 2018.
 

RudyBlue

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#18
Just a very quick comment without much thought. But could totally see GWS get to the GF next year. Two losing prelims in a row and the list profile would have them just about flag favs 2018.
Yep, so much of GWS' core is just entering their prime with two tough finals lossess under their belt. There's a bit of the Lions before the 3-peat about them.

They probably lack that supreme physical edge that Lions team had though. You really need that in scrappy finals.
 

markm106

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Yep, so much of GWS' core is just entering their prime with two tough finals lossess under their belt. There's a bit of the Lions before the 3-peat about them.

They probably lack that supreme physical edge that Lions team had though. You really need that in scrappy finals.
Agree. Don't have as much of a hard edge but a very talented list. Have some talent that didn't even get a game yesterday to.
 

RudyBlue

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Agree. Don't have as much of a hard edge but a very talented list. Have some talent that didn't even get a game yesterday to.
Did the Lions have that physicality before their run or was it developed as they kept winning premierships?

I guess I'm wondering if GWS need to recruit a few more campaigners or just find their inner campaigner
 

demondavey

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#21
It's been a fair turnaround by the Tigers. 13th last year with 8 wins and a percentage of 79. A total game style change. Smaller forward line and applying an insane amount of pressure. Interestingly after getting rid of Vickery they just couldn't find a replacement due to injury and form. And the smaller forward line has worked a treat.
I think Crows have been best team all year and they should win the GF. But I'll be interested in seeing how the Tigers structure up next year and if other clubs will look to them for inspiration. No doubt all teams will be focusing on pressure next year and players in the forward half who can't apply pressure will struggle.
Maybe why we've retained vandenberg?
 

ashep

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#23
Whilst I'm incredibly proud of the way our club competes year after year, I think I might have traded a win last year for a bit of a slide.

Being a bridesmaid might be a privilege but it can also suck to fall at the last hurdle or 2 a few years in a row.
 
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