List Mgmt. Premiership windows

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St Kilda Death

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Sep 18, 2013
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Ok guys, obviously all very disappointed in last nights output.
Most disappointed I’ve been since Good Friday v north a few years back. And probably more so because I had high hopes this year.

i delved into some study to try work out where we are at.

I had a good look at Richmonds recruitment of a premiership team.

Drafting
06. Riewoldt , Edwards.
07. Cotchin, Rance.
08. /
09. Martin, astbury, grimes.
10. Houli

Absolutely nailed 3/4 drafts building future core of premiership team.
I don’t think anyone would argue possibly the 8 most important players of their premiership window.

However,
These superstars never played finals until 2013.

But on the back of this core and aging vets(delidio, Newman, king etc) eventually made finals 3 years in a row, yet failing to win a single one even though the best player of all time had been on their list for 6 years...

Meanwhile adding:
Vlastuin, Macintosh,Butler, short, castagna, lambert, Rioli and Broad during that era.

Still they had a shocker in 2015 (some would say on the back of losing Ivan Maric and not having a capable ruckman... sound familiar saints fans?)
going 8-14 missing finals again, Dimmas head was on the block.


It took bringing in 3 established players to fill the gaps,
Nankervis, Prestia, Caddy and also adding kids Bolton, graham.

thus even after losing to the saints by 70 points that year, the premiership window opened.
Also recruiting balta, baker, and merceneries lynch and Pickett within the window.
window still open as of now although I’m not sure how much longer.


TLDR:
Tiger premiership team core built ‘06-‘09.
Made and lost finals ‘13-‘15.
Premiership window ‘17-‘21 (tbc)

Now how does this correlate to us?
quite easily in fact because as the tigers drafted their core 06-09, we may have recruited ours exactly a decade later 16-19:

16. Steele, Marshall, (Battle, Long)
17. Clark, Coffield, Paton.
18. King, Wilkie, (Bytel
19. Howard, (Jones, Butler)

I know there is no Dusty in there but if we can believe that this bit of not bad recruiting can be our future core, then by the tigers model we can expect finals 2023 and (with good recruiting) open a premiership window 2027 when these players will be peaking.

so we are actually ahead of schedule having played and won a final already.


 

St Kilda Death

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was busy writing this and only just catching up now on a bit of the autopsy thread i seen this point has already been touched on.
At the peak of our 2009/10 powers we had these heart and soul players:
Lenny, Roo, BJ, Monty, Fisher, Dal, Milne, Schneider, Dempster, Blake

Now we have:
Steele, Howard, Membrey, umm, ahh, hmmm
Clark Coffield Gresham Wilkie Butler Higgins Paton King
Adding Billings, Membrey and Gresh to the list of that core team, as only drafted not far behinf the 16-19 mob.
 

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St Kilda Death

Premiership Player
Sep 18, 2013
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We’ve been in one premiership window in my 53 years of utter anguish. It was when BJ took that mark and put us in front in time on of the 2010 GF. It lasted for about 6 or 7 minutes.
id say it was 04-10. You are only counting the last 6 minutes of it. :p
We just failed miserably.

honestly though the competition we had in that period was unbelievable.
even the dogs were a great team that never made a granny back then.
Geelong, Collingwood, Hawks, Dogs all had their windows open at the same time.
brissy and port were closing theirs,

Not to take away from Tigs great team with GOAT player, but had adelaide and gws lie down for them and then cats choked (soft pussies as Harris Andrews would say!.
 

George

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Great thread mate...need a bit of optimism. I still think we are building towards something special. Yesterday is a prime example of why we brought in experienced players. Most of them didn't play or haven't played the last two weeks and it's shown.

Core of our list is still really young, the ones you mentioned still have a few years of developing before we can start being more critical of their performance like we do with Hill for example.
 

St Kilda Death

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Sep 18, 2013
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Great thread mate...need a bit of optimism. I still think we are building towards something special. Yesterday is a prime example of why we brought in experienced players. Most of them didn't play or haven't played the last two weeks and it's shown.

Core of our list is still really young, the ones you mentioned still have a few years of developing before we can start being more critical of their performance like we do with Hill for example.
I can't believe I'm being optimistic today!
I most definitely was NOT in an optimistic mood last night!
 

gringo2011

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Great thread mate...need a bit of optimism. I still think we are building towards something special. Yesterday is a prime example of why we brought in experienced players. Most of them didn't play or haven't played the last two weeks and it's shown.

Core of our list is still really young, the ones you mentioned still have a few years of developing before we can start being more critical of their performance like we do with Hill for example.

We only really have Paddy and Marshall that are best 22 missing. Hanners and Geary maybe if they are best 22 now.That's our best side nearly. Frawley who has never played maybe at a stretch?
 

George

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I can't believe I'm being optimistic today!
I most definitely was NOT in an optimistic mood last night!
Our issues are obvious which is a good thing. Need to lift the effort. Effort in Round 1 and for majority of last year was our baseline. We all know we aren't this bad. And we still have plenty of talent on the list.

We only really have Paddy and Marshall that are best 22 missing. Hanners and Geary maybe if they are best 22 now.That's our best side nearly. Frawley who has never played maybe at a stretch?
I was talking about experienced players, I don't put Marshall in that category but you've listed all the others. It does have an impact.
 

ScrappyDo

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Roo said we're a couple of years off and he's right.
If there was a stat for how many game your best 22 have player together, we'd be close to the bottom of the list.

Like the OP noted, we need to track Clark(50), Coff, Pato, King, Bytel as our main talent core.
I'd add Batts too, but wouldn't blame him if he ****** off after the way he's been misused.
 

gringo2011

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Roo said we're a couple of years off and he's right.
If there was a stat for how many game your best 22 have player together, we'd be close to the bottom of the list.

Like the OP noted, we need to track Clark(50), Coff, Pato, King, Bytel as our main talent core.
I'd add Batts too, but wouldn't blame him if he ****** off after the way he's been misused.

I said last year that our list seemed to be overachieving compared similar lists. The ages profiles and experience levels didn't seem to equate. We were relatively healthy and we seemed to relish life in the hub with our younger list. This year losing Geary and Paton has hurt as they are both able to mind a forward with close checking.

Both rucks going down has made our midfield significantly worse. Clark, Coffield and King have either not progressed or stepped backwards somewhat. Butler one of our two best players and the only in AA contention besides Steele has gone from top shelf to non existent, Steele has held his form but just about every other player has struggled to play as well as 2020. Ross and Howard are perhaps the exception.

It's understandable that our form is a bit off and you start to learn that depth is not always an advantage when your back ups are limited old players with no scope for improvement and that kids would have been a better option. Melbourne went through a similar realisation after following a similar path out of middling.
 

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El_Duderino

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If we lost battle would we get a second rounder for him? I don’t even want to think of it coz he’s a crucial player for us. But what is he worth realistically?
 

St Kilda Death

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reckon from what I see not knowing the bloke personally that Battle loves the club and he is ratts swingman and probably doesn’t mind getting thrown around the ground if that’s what’s best for the team.
 

St Kilda Death

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If we lost battle would we get a second rounder for him? I don’t even want to think of it coz he’s a crucial player for us. But what is he worth realistically?
Realistically as you say, probably not much, as he has sacrificed his game statistically over the last year to do jobs for ratts.
Probably valued much higher internally than he would be on the market I’d guess.
 

St Kilda Death

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AFL site always does a thing where they compare average age of lists which put us in near the oldest I believe.
Which is rubbish as we have already established our “core” group is quite young, compared to say Richmond, right now I’d say their 12 best players are their 12 oldest players, all pushing 30-33yo.

Saints in that age bracket:
Geary, Ryder, Carlisle, Hanners, mckernan, Frawley.
That’s our aged back pocket captain and a few mercenaries of various degrees of talent.

players in the 26-28 range
Ross, Webster, Membrey, Sinclair.
And we can see why they targeted
Hill, Crouch, Jones.
 

El_Duderino

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reckon from what I see not knowing the bloke personally that Battle loves the club and he is ratts swingman and probably doesn’t mind getting thrown around the ground if that’s what’s best for the team.
A swing man should only be put in defence or up forward. Not on the wing.

unless someone has accidentally left the S off at the start of Ratten’s notes.
 

Ricmel

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We’ve been in one premiership window in my 53 years of utter anguish. It was when BJ took that mark and put us in front in time on of the 2010 GF. It lasted for about 6 or 7 minutes.
Should have won in 1997 but for one coaching move - up by 20+ at the break then leaving Jarman one out against one of the slowest players ever to play the game for an entire half of footy.

Could have won in 2004 - very stiff to lose one of the greatest finals ever played against Port in Adelaide. Would have won the flag if we got past Port.

2010 would have been lucky - Pies were clearly a better team at that stage.
 
Last edited:

Ricmel

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I know there is no Dusty in there but if we can believe that this bit of not bad recruiting can be our future core, then by the tigers model we can expect finals 2023 and (with good recruiting) open a premiership window 2027 when these players will be peaking.

so we are actually ahead of schedule having played and won a final already.


Appreciate the positivity but this is a bit like saying we are approaching a premiership window because we wear red, black and white and a team in those colors has won a flag before. Over the years we have compared our progress to Hawthorn, Geelong, now Richmond. The problem is, making an isolated comparison ignores the main issue. Where is the rest of the competition?

Right now we are beaten 4 times out of 5 by WCE, Richmond, Port, Brisbane. 3 out of 5 by Geelong and Bulldogs. So at best we are a 7 - 8 team.

When the big 4 have faded the lists of Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast are likely to overtake ours. I would argue that Freo and Carlton also have a lot of really good young talent.

I don't know what the game against Bombers was (the game against Melbourne for that matter too). Is that our real form or did we just have a one oe off shocker. Are Hill, Billings, Jones the busts they appear to be? Are Coffield and Clark ever going to be more than tantalising potential? Does King just need more time or is he fundamentally not at AFL level?

Lots of questions to be answered over the next 3 weeks.
 

sauce_head

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Should have won in 1997 but for one coaching move - up by 20+ at the break then leaving Jarman one out against one of the slowest players ever to play the game for an entire half of footy.

Could have won in 2004 - very stiff to lose one of the greatest finals ever played against Port in Adelaide. Would have won the flag if we got past Port.

2010 would have been lucky - Pies were clearly a better team at that stage.
Should have won 2009. We were the better team that day as well. Even the Bond villain Bomber Thompson said so in his acceptance speech after the game. 😩
 

Ricmel

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Should have won 2009. We were the better team that day as well. Even the Bond villain Bomber Thompson said so in his acceptance speech after the game. 😩
Yeah we were definitely in the window in 2009. Poor kicking in q2 cost us. If you think about (and I try not to) we led at half time in 71, 97 and 09! You gotta be really made of the right stuff to be a Saints supporter.
 

The Jack

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Should have won in 1997 but for one coaching move - up by 20+ at the break then leaving Jarman one out against one of the slowest players ever to play the game for an entire half of footy.

Could have won in 2004 - very stiff to lose one of the greatest finals ever played against Port in Adelaide. Would have won the flag if we got past Port.

2010 would have been lucky - Pies were clearly a better team at that stage.
Agree with all that. But only ever felt like we were going to be premiers once. After BJ's goal.
 

St Kilda Death

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Appreciate the positivity but this is a bit like saying we are approaching a premiership window because we wear red, black and white and a team in those colors has won a flag before. Over the years we have compared our progress to Hawthorn, Geelong, now Richmond. The problem is, making an isolated comparison ignores the main issue. Where is the rest of the competition?

Right now we are beaten 4 times out of 5 by WCE, Richmond, Port, Brisbane. 3 out of 5 by Geelong and Bulldogs. So at best we are a 7 - 8 team.

When the big 4 have faded the lists of Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast are likely to overtake ours. I would argue that Freo and Carlton also have a lot of really good young talent.

I don't know what the game against Bombers was (the game against Melbourne for that matter too). Is that our real form or did we just have a one oe off shocker. Are Hill, Billings, Jones the busts they appear to be? Are Coffield and Clark ever going to be more than tantalising potential? Does King just need more time or is he fundamentally not at AFL level?

Lots of questions to be answered over the next 3 weeks.
Can’t argue with your first point and yes it was just a positive take on a little study I did which I found more interesting than playing sack the coach/players/ceo over on the main autopsy thread.

my point being the main core talent of our team is very young and natural progression should have them doing well in future years, although obviously we need to continue to add new talent, as there are many teams aiming for the same goal.

I will argue with you on one point, I don’t think billing’s is a bust, I think he is one of only 3 with Steele and Membrey who did there job last week.
 

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