Prediction Priority Pick 2018

[StCicatriz]

how do people feel about it?

i think we should have a crack at it. its clear the equalisation measures in the AFL are starting to fracture. for instance there have been 6 sides on a long term rebuild after truly bottoming out or starting from scratch:
Melbourne
Brisbane
GWS
GC
Carlton
WB

of those the only sides to make finals are those that have been handed considerable draft concessions or had an influx of father sons, WB and GWS. the dogs snagged a flag due to rules on the run that caught the entire comp offside. both sides are now out of the 8. dogs in the bottom 6. their highest true ladder position was 8th (i could be wrong here)? melbourne is now in the 8 but only after receiving what pretty much was a high priority pick after previous years of priority picks and massive AFL assistance. GC are the only side that has had concession but gone no where.

so it looks like the sides that have done it the hard way and stuck at the bottom of the ladder. it feels like the pendulum went too far back the other way due to fear of tanking. along with the compromised drafts flattening the ability for sides to bring in elite highly rated talent at a high enough frequency to rebuild.

i'm also sure if you looked at the amount of first rounders we have had since lyon joined it would be one of the lowest in the comp.

so should we apply for a priority pick and where should it fall?

i think yes and should occur after the bottom 6 have all had their first pick.

 

[VDS66]

Nope, not on one bad year.

Only reason would be if we lose a few players due to concussion or Robbo.

 

[SufferingS8INT]

agree with VD, only if we lose paddy, robbo or koby we should put our hand out.

 

[Kildonan]

Tend to agree with VDS66 .

 

[gringo2011]

how do people feel about it?

i think we should have a crack at it. its clear the equalisation measures in the AFL are starting to fracture. for instance there have been 6 sides on a long term rebuild after truly bottoming out or starting from scratch:
Melbourne
Brisbane
GWS
GC
Carlton
WB

of those the only sides to make finals are those that have been handed considerable draft concessions or had an influx of father sons, WB and GWS. the dogs snagged a flag due to rules on the run that caught the entire comp offside. both sides are now out of the 8. dogs in the bottom 6. their highest true ladder position was 8th (i could be wrong here)? melbourne is now in the 8 but only after receiving what pretty much was a high priority pick after previous years of priority picks and massive AFL assistance. GC are the only side that has had concession but gone no where.

so it looks like the sides that have done it the hard way and stuck at the bottom of the ladder. it feels like the pendulum went too far back the other way due to fear of tanking. along with the compromised drafts flattening the ability for sides to bring in elite highly rated talent at a high enough frequency to rebuild.

i'm also sure if you looked at the amount of first rounders we have had since lyon joined it would be one of the lowest in the comp.

so should we apply for a priority pick and where should it fall?

i think yes and should occur after the bottom 6 have all had their first pick.

Free agency has made bottom out rebuilds impossibly hard and top up teams have a distinct advantage. They have created a serious impediment to the bottom teams making up ground. I reckon you will find unless teams make serious mistakes the next 10 years will see an intrenched set of bottom sides. I can see us spending the next 10 years in the bottom 8. We have a very poor list and it's going to take a lot to go right and not much going wrong to turn it around.

 

[sunny3193]

Never.
It has exactly the same connotation as tanking.
Begging.

 

[joop]

**** it. I’m in. Lukosius & Walsh step right up.

 

[Joffaboy]

Speaks for itself

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[PaddysurDaddy]

if we lose two of robbo, stevens, paddy - ask for pick directly after our first pick
if we lose one of robbo or paddy - ask for mid to end of first round

other than that nah

 

[joop]

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Since 2004 we were in the finals a lot more than the other teams though

 

[StCicatriz]

Nope, not on one bad year.

Only reason would be if we lose a few players due to concussion or Robbo.

is it one bad year though? we've trended back wards for the 2nd season and havent played finals in 7 seasons. that's a massively long time! equalisation nirvana is:
bottom 6 -> 3 years
middle 6 -> 3 years
top 6 -> 3 years

if you want to pattern that out:
year 1: bottom 6
year 2: bottom 6
year 3: bottom 6
year 4: middle 6
year 5: middle 6
year 6: middle 6
year 7: top 6
year 8: top 6
year 9: top 6
year 10: top 6
year 11: top 6
year 12: top 6
year 13: middle 6
year 14: middle 6
year 15: middle 6
year 16: bottom 6
year 17: bottom 6
year 18: bottom 6

we've gone:
1997*: top 6
1998*: middle 6
1999*: middle 6
2000*: bottom 6
2001*: bottom 6
2002*: bottom 6
2003*: bottom 6
2004*: top 6
2005*: top 6
2006*: middle 6
2007*: middle 6
2008*: top 6
2009*: top 6
2010*: top 6
2011*: top 6
2012: middle 6
2013: bottom 6
2014: bottom 6
2015: bottom 6
2016: middle 6
2017: middle 6
2018: bottom 6

now i know from 1997-2010 and 2011 we only had 16 teams so can't really evenly divide it into 3. but you can see prior to the introduction of the compromised drafts + free agency + zones and the removal of the priority picks, we had a pretty even mix of bottom, middle and top:
1997->2011
top: 7
middle: 4
bottom: 4

2011->2018:
top: 0
middle: 3
bottom: 4

it looks unlikely we will get over the next 7 years: 1 middle and 7 top finishes. so it looks like there is something inherently broken with the equalization of the comp and we are not the only ones. the downward trend is alarming. it appears once you bottom out you stay out unless you get a leg up on the comp with concessions.

 

[VDS66]

Frankly if the AFL were to help us I'd rather they did it off field like they did with Melbourne.

Wouldn't be against them subsidising a fat offer to Clarko for example or a proper footy manager.

 

[Diehard Saint]

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Dees also got pick 3 as "compensation" ( read priority pick) for James Frawley - you know, using that secret formula!

 

[StCicatriz]

Dees also got pick 3 as compensation ( read priority pick) for James Frawley!

yeap, GWS also didnt move on taking Viney at his correct pick due to the AFL maneuvering them on the bidding system on the mini draft

 

[VDS66]

is it one bad year though? we've trended back wards for the 2nd season and havent played finals in 7 seasons. that's a massively long time! equalisation nirvana is:
bottom 6 -> 3 years
middle 6 -> 3 years
top 6 -> 3 years

we've gone:
1997*: top 6
1998*: middle 6
1999*: middle 6
2000*: bottom 6
2001*: bottom 6
2002*: bottom 6
2003*: bottom 6
2004*: top 6
2005*: top 6
2006*: middle 6
2007*: middle 6
2008*: top 6
2009*: top 6
2010*: top 6
2011*: top 6
2012: middle 6
2013: bottom 6
2014: bottom 6
2015: bottom 6
2016: middle 6
2017: middle 6
2018: bottom 6

now i know from 1997-2010 and 2011 we only had 16 teams so can't really evenly divide it into 3. but you can see prior to the introduction of the compromised drafts + free agency + zones and the removal of the priority picks, we had a pretty even mix of bottom, middle and top:
1997->2011
top: 7
middle: 4
bottom: 4

2011->2018:
top: 0
middle: 3
bottom: 4

it looks unlikely we will get over the next 7 years: 1 middle and 7 top finishes. so it looks like there is something inherently broken with the equalization of the comp and we are not the only ones. the downward trend is alarming. it appears once you bottom out you stay out unless you get a leg up on the comp with concessions.

We hit ground zero in 2014. Since then we have trended upwards.

Don't think the AFL will look at round 17 onwards like we do. They will look at win loss ratio and we have ended up mid table for the last two years.

This year has been ravaged with injuries. Just don't see it happening on performance alone.

I'll alsoadd that it would end up at the end of round one so don't see any major advantage TBH.

 

[Sab22]

We don't need it. We need a change in our coaching staff, and some experience in our playing list

 

[Diehard Saint]

yeap, GWS also didnt move on taking Viney at his correct pick due to the AFL maneuvering them on the bidding system on the mini draft

It's all very transparent...not!

 

[StCicatriz]

We hit ground zero in 2014. Since then we have trended upwards.

Don't think the AFL will look at round 17 onwards like we do. They will look at win loss ratio and we have ended up mid table for the last two years.

This year has been ravaged with injuries. Just don't see it happening on performance alone.

we trended upwards until 2016. so 3 seasons ('14, '15, '16). since then its trended backwards for 2 seasons, this year being quite heavy ('17, '18).

 

[gringo2011]

We hit ground zero in 2014. Since then we have trended upwards.

Don't think the AFL will look at round 17 onwards like we do. They will look at win loss ratio and we have ended up mid table for the last two years.

This year has been ravaged with injuries. Just don't see it happening on performance alone.

The loss of the last of our old guard looks pretty ominous though. I wouldn't be surprised if Lethlean finds we lack senior leadership since they went. Hopefully he spins that narrative back to the AFL and says that was the issue. We have the worst list in the AFL with Carlton and Brisbane having a much better spread of young talent coming through and much better talent spreads with different sizes and types.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Only reason we could possibly get it is if Robbo, Koby and ( I don't even want to think about this one) Paddy have to retire prematurely.

 

[StCicatriz]

ok so say your opinion is no we dont deserve one this year. at what point should it be enacted?

if we finish bottom 6 next year? the year after?

 

[VDS66]

we trended upwards until 2016. so 3 seasons ('14, '15, '16). since then its trended backwards for 2 seasons, this year being quite heavy ('17, '18).

Talking about win loss record.

 

[StCicatriz]

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that is really good!!!!

it shows the melbourne have bounced back from it being applied to them twice
carlton played finals from it
richmond won a flag after it

brisbane the only one that hasn't but i suspect they got an end of first round one, like wce did, who did play in a grand final.

the concern here is they've removed one of the key mechanisms that promoted the bottom sides up to the top end of the ladder. whilst implementing a mechanism that kept top sides up there for longer in free agency. so its no surprise the AFL has stagnated massively.

 

[VDS66]

ok so say your opinion is no we dont deserve one this year. at what point should it be enacted?

if we finish bottom 6 next year? the year after?

No way the AFL will give us one.

They are smart enough to know that once we sack Richo, we will be top 8 next year.

 

[StCicatriz]

No way the AFL will give us one.

They are smart enough to know that once we sack Richo, we will be top 8 next year.

cool answer but not what i asked...