Opinion Priority Picks - Moving Forward

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Lampers

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A couple of additional top end 18 year olds literally turned the GC culture around.

As a club that hasn't pillaged the system like Melbourne, Carlton, Hawthorn, Richmond and the GC in recent years. It's a rich argument to say we can't get the same concessions that propelled 2 of those 5 into major success.
I’ve paid close attention to a team that got several draft concessions and saw what little difference an additional high end talent 18 year old makes week to week.

Whatever, chase that priority pick dragon. It’s not the answer to competitiveness. If it was, why did some clubs who got priority picks succeed, and some didn’t? There are clearly many other more critical factors at play.

The AFL no longer giving Melbourne priority picks at the Neeld/Roos changeover era, despite onfield being far worse than other teams subsequently granted priority concessions, was the AFL saying “This is not the solution to your problem” and they were correct.

Why are North uncompetitive now? What would help them to be competitive? They had some talented high end picks in on Friday and got destroyed.
 

Sphynx

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You tell me

Yes they did, given you asked.

Tom Boyd (Ryan Griffen) - 2016
Noah Balta (Brett Deledio) - 2020
Josh Kennedy (Chris Judd) - 2018
Chris Masten (Chris Judd) - 2018



You also missed Dale Thomas, who played in the 2010 Collingwood Premiership, Xavier Ellis who played in Hawthorn's 2008 Premiership and Chris Judd who played in West Coasts 2006 Premiership. All priority picks. this is ontop of Jarryd Roughead.


In terms of PP's that continued to live on:

Collingwood turned Dale Thomas into another top 6 pick in Matthew Scharenberg.
Melbourne turned Colin Sylvia into another top 25 pick and in tern took Bernie Vince.
Melbourne turned Tom Scully into Jesse Hogan and Chris Dawes, they then turned Jesse Hogan into Steven May and Kade Kolo (This PP is still live)
Richmond turned Brett Deledio into Noah Balta and Coleman-Jones (this PP is still live)
West Coast turned Chris Judd into Chris Masten, Josh Kennedy and Tony Notte (this PP is still live)
Marc Murphy is still playing (this PP is still live)




So sorry, PP's can have lasting residual affects on clubs for over a decade if utlised right.


Your best defender in 2021 is still as a direct result of you being awarded a PP, I think it still having a decent impact on your club, don't you think?
 
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radiojake

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Round 13 last season and Adelaide looked like some sort of a candidate with how poorly they were running, and then the AFL double downed on not helping them out with Brad Crouch not netting a first round compo (bet you if they finished, say, 8th, and compo pick was pick 11, it would have triggered it, anyway i digress)

12 months later and they've turned it around rather quickly

PP shouldn't exist
 

hilly

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An additional top end 18 year old is not going to turn around a team in North’s position to be more competitive in the short term.

I think the ability to recruit a couple of out of contract players as if they are free agents even if they aren’t qualified as free agents, with free agent compensation to the losing club, makes far more sense to me.

Similar to some of the Gold Coast and GWS startup concessions.

If North could add a couple of seasoned AFL players at the end of this year AND not give up their natural draft picks doing so - so they could choose to trade those picks for additional seasoned players or invest the picks into top end youth - that’s far more likely to get them competitive.

Melbourne getting Tyson (yes, he was damn good for a couple of years there!), Vince, Melksham, Garlett and Hibberd in through trades did far more for immediate competitiveness and morale than the multiple top end 18 year olds, including priority picks, ever did.
Agree with this. At the moment we are badly lacking competent seasoned players (partly due to injuries, partly due to a balls-up of drafting and development over the last decade) as opposed to talented, light-bodied youngsters.
 

Blackas87

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Yes they did, given you asked.

Tom Boyd (Ryan Griffen) - 2016
Noah Balta (Brett Deledio) - 2020
Josh Kennedy (Chris Judd) - 2018
Chris Masten (Chris Judd) - 2018



You also missed Dale Thomas, who played in the 2010 Collingwood Premiership, Xavier Ellis who played in Hawthorn's 2008 Premiership and Chris Judd who played in West Coasts 2006 Premiership. All priority picks.
You stated Hawthorn and Richmond’s major success, not West Coast and the Bulldogs, I’m responding to you.

As a club that hasn't pillaged the system like Melbourne, Carlton, Hawthorn, Richmond and the GC in recent years. It's a rich argument to say we can't get the same concessions that propelled 2 of those 5 into major success.
Richmond won without Noah Balta in 2017 and 19, hardly the reason behind Richmonds major success as you put it.

All those clubs you mentioned, West Coast, Bulldogs ect.. were competing against other clubs receiving priority picks during 2000-2009. That era is over, 2021 an even Comp without priority picks
 

Lampers

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Yes they did, given you asked.

Tom Boyd (Ryan Griffen) - 2016
Noah Balta (Brett Deledio) - 2020
Josh Kennedy (Chris Judd) - 2018
Chris Masten (Chris Judd) - 2018



You also missed Dale Thomas, who played in the 2010 Collingwood Premiership, Xavier Ellis who played in Hawthorn's 2008 Premiership and Chris Judd who played in West Coasts 2006 Premiership. All priority picks. this is ontop of Jarryd Roughead.


In terms of PP's that continued to live on:

Collingwood turned Dale Thomas into another top 6 pick in Matthew Scharenberg.
Melbourne turned Colin Sylvia into another top 25 pick and in term took Bernie Vince.
Melbourne turned Tom Scully into Jesse Hogan and Chris Dawes, they then turned Jesse Hogan into Steven May and Kade Kolo (This PP is still live)
Richmond turned Brett Deledio into Noah Balta and Coleman-Jones (this PP is still live)
West Coast turned Chris Judd into Chris Masten, Josh Kennedy and Tony Notte (this PP is still live)
Marc Murphy is still playing (this PP is still live)




So sorry, PP's can have lasting residual affects on clubs for over a decade if utlised right.
You’re not thinking about priority picks correctly.

To illustrate, Deledio, Roughead and Griffen were technically priority picks, but in reality it was Tambling, Franklin and Tom Williams who were the additional players drafted. These were the actual benefit players even though technically they were the “natural” picks.

If you rerun your analysis on the effective player gained, not the technical priority pick, you will find a much less rosy picture. And even your current analysis shows in many cases all that happened was an asset was used and recycled and didn’t provide direct or immediate competitiveness or success. Colin Sylvia turned into Bernie Vince, and Melbourne won how many finals with Colin and Bernie?

Being allowed to sign OOC players with no trade even if those players aren’t free agency qualified would have the same effect of creating an asset for the struggling club, and will create more immediate competitiveness.
 

Sphynx

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You’re not thinking about priority picks correctly.

To illustrate, Deledio, Roughead and Griffen were technically priority picks, but in reality it was Tambling, Franklin and Tom Williams who were the additional players drafted. These were the actual benefit players even though technically they were the “natural” picks.

If you rerun your analysis on the effective player gained, not the technical priority pick, you will find a much less rosy picture. And even your current analysis shows in many cases all that happened was an asset was used and recycled and didn’t provide direct or immediate competitiveness or success. Colin Sylvia turned into Bernie Vince, and Melbourne won how many finals with Colin and Bernie?

Being allowed to sign OOC players with no trade even if those players aren’t free agency qualified would have the same effect of creating an asset for the struggling club, and will create more immediate competitiveness.

I understand your point, but they were still the priority picks.

You seem to be glossing over the fact, it's as much an asset to help clubs build into the future as it is the players impact.

who's to say North wouldn't trade their second pick in the event they received a PP?

Gold Coast traded some of their PP's.
 

Lampers

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I understand your point, but they were still the priority picks.

You seem to be glossing over the fact, it's as much an asset to help clubs build into the future as it is the players impact.

who's to say North wouldn't trade their second pick in the event they received a PP?

Gold Coast traded some of their PP's.
I agree there is some value that can be extracted from additional draft selections, but it’s such a small part of what increases competitiveness unless the value is extracted in very specific ways (e.g. traded for a ready to go player).

The AFL is all about a quality product to be able to get better broadcast and media deals, and keep their betting sponsors happy. So they will assist in ways that create competitiveness ASAP.

Having North or Adelaide based on last year add an additional 18 year old doesn’t meet that brief.

The AFL has changed their thinking so significantly than from the times your are quoting and they won’t go back.

Even their more sophisticated mechanisms like tradable only 17 yo mini draft picks, and mature age preselections engineered to bring more immediate competitiveness have been manipulated by the clubs receiving them and not used for their intended purpose.
 

Sphynx

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I agree there is some value that can be extracted from additional draft selections, but it’s such a small part of what increases competitiveness unless the value is extracted in very specific ways (e.g. traded for a ready to go player).

The AFL is all about a quality product to be able to get better broadcast and media deals, and keep their betting sponsors happy. So they will assist in ways that create competitiveness ASAP.

Having North or Adelaide based on last year add an additional 18 year old doesn’t meet that brief.

The AFL has changed their thinking so significantly than from the times your are quoting and they won’t go back.

Even their more sophisticated mechanisms like tradable only 17 yo mini draft picks, and mature age preselections engineered to bring more immediate competitiveness have been manipulated by the clubs receiving them and not used for their intended purpose.

Ok, so whats your solution?

Have your medicine and stay sh*t?
 

Lampers

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Ok, so whats your solution?

Have your medicine and stay sh*t?
I’ve already provided it. Grant North the ability to sign a couple of OOC players without the need for a trade - minimum age of those players being 20 or maybe 22. I’d also give them a couple of mature age pre-draft selections that they cannot trade.

That should assist them to bring in four AFL ready bodies to increase competitiveness and stops them from trying load up on 18 year olds.

Obviously they should still get their natural draft picks which they can either trade or invest into 18 yo talent.
 

Sphynx

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I’ve already provided it. Grant North the ability to sign a couple of OOC players without the need for a trade - minimum age of those players being 20 or maybe 22. I’d also give them a couple of mature age pre-draft selections that they cannot trade.

That should assist them to bring in four AFL ready bodies to increase competitiveness and stops them from trying load up on 18 year olds.

Obviously they should still get their natural draft picks which they can either trade or invest into 18 yo talent.

Players have to agree to go to the wooden spooner though.

Effectively paying through the nose for journeyman types?

Where has this worked, ever?


How are Clark, Vince, Lumumba, Dawes, Frost and Pederson going?

It's the likes of Gawn, Oliver and Petracca that turned you around. Good drafting.

If you had of drafted better, earlier, with the mountain of picks you had, it would have turned around quicker. The problem wasn't the system, it was Melbourne at the time.
 

Kreuuuzeurns

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Brisbane went 10, 7, 4, 3 wins from 2013-2016 and got an end of first round priority pick (19).

Carlton went 4, 7, 6, 2 wins from 2015-2018 and got the rights to Shane McAdam.

GC went 6, 6, 4, 3 from 2016-2019 and got a mature age selection + four first round picks and an extended rookie list.

There is no special formula. Is it in the AFL’s best interest for North to be playing finals and winning flags in a few years time? I’m not sure they really care, and I’m not convinced priority picks work anyway.
 

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Sphynx

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Brisbane went 10, 7, 4, 3 wins from 2013-2016 and got an end of first round priority pick (19).

Carlton went 4, 7, 6, 2 wins from 2015-2018 and got the rights to Shane McAdam.

GC went 6, 6, 4, 3 from 2016-2019 and got a mature age selection + four first round picks and an extended rookie list.

There is no special formula. Is it in the AFL’s best interest for North to be playing finals and winning flags in a few years time? I’m not sure they really care, and I’m not convinced priority picks work anyway.

You forgot the GC - Darwin Zone, which netted them 2 first round prospects last year also, without even having to match bids.


The current irony is GC currently hold a 2021 end of first round PP and they beat us by 10 goals 2 weeks ago.
 

Lampers

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Players have to agree to go to the wooden spooner though.

Effectively paying through the nose for journeyman types?

Where has this worked, ever?

How are Clark, Vince, Lumumba, Dawes, Frost and Pederson going?

It's the likes of Gawn, Oliver and Petracca that turned you around. Good drafting.

If you had of drafted better, earlier, with the mountain of picks you had, it would have turned around quicker. The problem wasn't the system, it was Melbourne at the time.
I think Melbourne’s early picks through the mid to late 2000s were fine. They were consensus picks. It was the lack of leadership, on field and off field, plus lack of development, some injuries, and an attitude of “If we get enough talent in, and give them games, success will come” which was the problem.

GWS’ first couple of seasons is proof of volume of young talent alone isn’t the answer.

Most of those experienced players you quoted played significant roles by giving consistency and structure as Melbourne went from horrific, to boring but competitive, and eventually into the finals in 2018.

I would argue that stability and on field support was part of what allowed Melbourne’s draft picks since the mid 2010s to develop better.

Clark was the one where overs were paid to lure someone who really didn’t want to be there, and despite being an immense talent he was a bad egg.

Not a huge amount was paid for the others, maybe Dawes a bit too much but he also provided lots of leadership that outstripped his on-field capabilities.
 

Sphynx

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I think Melbourne’s early picks through the mid to late 2000s were fine. They were consensus picks. It was the lack of leadership, on field and off field, plus lack of development, some injuries, and an attitude of “If we get enough talent in, and give them games, success will come” which was the problem.

GWS’ first couple of seasons is proof of volume of young talent alone isn’t the answer.

Most of those experienced players you quoted played significant roles by giving consistency and structure as Melbourne went from horrific, to boring but competitive, and eventually into the finals in 2018.

I would argue that stability and on field support was part of what allowed Melbourne’s draft picks since the mid 2010s to develop better.

Clark was the one where overs were paid to lure someone who really didn’t want to be there, and despite being an immense talent he was a bad egg.

Not a huge amount was paid for the others, maybe Dawes a bit too much but he also provided lots of leadership that outstripped his on-field capabilities.

GWS went from last in their first season in 2012 to top 4 in 2016.

That is the system working perfectly, although supercharged by other concessions.

Not everything is about winning a premiership, you can't solely measure success off of that.

If anything, they proved that volume of quality young players can propel you up the ladder quickly.


The answer isn't for North to suddently win 10 games in 2022, it's gradual improvement and competitiveness. We tried to do the "right thing" under Brad Scott in his final year and topped up to remain competitive and it's f’ed us even more. It will probably cost us the PP.

We've been "competitive" for 22 years. Awesome.
 

Lampers

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It took GWS five seasons, and their first couple of seasons were putrid.

Five seasons is not quick.

They also didn’t have one additional top talent like a priority pick per year, they had many, many top picks gifted to them at the same time to start up.
 

Sphynx

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It took GWS five seasons, and their first couple of seasons were putrid.

Five seasons is not quick.

They also didn’t have one additional top talent like a priority pick per year, they had many, many top picks gifted to them at the same time to start up.

5 seasons is absolutely rapid under the current system. The current system is broken.

Teams stay "up" for far to long and teams stay "down" for in most cases over a decade.

Brisbane won 10 or more games 4 times in a 15 year period prior to this resurgence.

Melbourne missed the finals for 12 years straight.

Carlton have made 4 finals appearances in the last 20 years.


5 years from spoon to top 4 is absolutely rapid under the current system.


In reality the top 20 picks of every draft should be shared between the bottom 10 clubs imo. With the premiers coming in at Pick #28 for their first pick.


1. 18th
2. 17th
3. 16th
4. 15th
5. 14th
6. 13th
7. 12th
8. 11th
9. 10th
10. 9th
11. 18th
12. 17th
13. 16th
14. 15th
15. 14th
16. 13th
17. 12th
18. 11th
19. 10th
20. 9th
21. 8th
22. 7th
23. 6th
24. 5th
25. 4th
26. 3rd
27. 2nd
28. 1st.



You would see far greater volatility in the flag and finals with the above. Clubs can do entire rebuilds in 2-3 years, more trade collateral for bottom 10 clubs to attract players from the top 8 clubs.

Especially given Free Agency is currently skewing the game out of equalisation with players joining contending sides, this would rebalance the comp.
 
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Sphynx

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Round 13 last season and Adelaide looked like some sort of a candidate with how poorly they were running, and then the AFL double downed on not helping them out with Brad Crouch not netting a first round compo (bet you if they finished, say, 8th, and compo pick was pick 11, it would have triggered it, anyway i digress)

12 months later and they've turned it around rather quickly

PP shouldn't exist
Adelaide played in a GF and were minor premiers in 2017.

In 2017 North avoided the outright spoon in the final round of the season against Brisbane. We finished equal bottom on points.

We have been down for a while.


In 2018 Scott tried to bring in some more experience to get more competitive. It's completely f’ed us now.


Ironically, if he didn't do that, we wouldn't even be having this discussion, as it would be 4 x consecutive bottom 4 finishes and we'd be odds on for Pick #2 given how this season has started.
 

Elixuh

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PP should exist. It’s tough with North because I think they should qualify for one at the end of next season if not the season after that. But in reality it would be more beneficial to just do it now. I think North’s list profile is awful.

People keep making comparisons to other lists but North has no experienced guns who will be around for their next flag tilt, I can’t name any of their good players in that 23-25 bracket, but they do have some good younger guys.

A lot of these others teams people are citing seem to have an experienced player or two dotted on each line. I think Sydney is the best example. People thought they were gone last year but when you look at their list they have experienced guns on ever line. High quality players in that middle bracket and young guns. Compare that to North.
 

Blackas87

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How are Clark, Vince, Lumumba, Dawes, Frost and Pederson going?

It's the likes of Gawn, Oliver and Petracca that turned you around. Good drafting.

If you had of drafted better, earlier, with the mountain of picks you had, it would have turned around quicker. The problem wasn't the system, it was Melbourne at the time.
yes you’ve nailed it. the problem was Melbourne, no extra draft picks was going to change that.

Lumumba, Dawes, Vince and Daniel Cross are part of the reason that helped set the culture that developed Gawn, Petracca and Oliver, those players weren’t priority picks
 

Final Siren

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Richmond turned Brett Deledio into Noah Balta and Coleman-Jones (this PP is still live)
Wow, I had no idea. So if I have this right, Richmond did this:
  • 2004: Draft Deledio at #1 with priority pick
  • 2016: Trade Deledio for 2017 1st rounder (Geelong) and 2017 3rd rounder (GWS)
  • 2017: Swap the above two picks with Brisbane for picks 20 & 25
  • 2017: Draft CCJ at 20 and Balta at 25
Pretty good work!
 

Sphynx

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Wow, I had no idea. So if I have this right, Richmond did this:
  • 2004: Draft Deledio at #1 with priority pick
  • 2016: Trade Deledio for 2017 1st rounder (Geelong) and 2017 3rd rounder (GWS)
  • 2017: Swap the above two picks with Brisbane for picks 20 & 25
  • 2017: Draft CCJ at 20 and Balta at 25
Pretty good work!
Correct.
 

Andy_Mac

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What North did to their list last year is in some ways a different form of tanking. They completely obliterated there list knowing full well that 2021 was a complete write off. Rewarding that is wrong.

That said the AFL is committed to an 18 team comp the produces 9 high quality specticals, and without question will have one eye on the 2025 broadcast deal. Having north get pulverised for the next 5 years is completely unpalatable and so there will be compensation if these beatings continue. What it won't be is access to more picks, more so access to players.

I also don't buy the argument that they can't attract talent. Corr and Stephenson signed up knowing full well where the club was at.
 

Dazb86

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North are only absolutely horrible at the moment because of their own doing. They delisted guys that could still be playing at a competant level because they could see they weren't going to take them to a flag. When this happens you drop fairly swiftly. The list management has been appalling.

They have got some talent on the list. Just need the right coach to develop them. From what I've seen of their current gameplan I'm not sure about Noble.
 

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