Professional Punters

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FallingLiefs said:
if you don't think the bookmakers have this exact graph but 100x better then you're a bit naive.

a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing.
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True, and it's not the only thing I considered. Ladbrokes had them priced at $1.70 which I thought was about right. Sportsbet had them $1.90 (evens with Bulldogs) which I thought had a bit of value in it.

All information is just a tool.

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ricardogp said:
True, and it's not the only thing I considered. Ladbrokes had them priced at $1.70 which I thought was about right. Sportsbet had them $1.90 (evens with Bulldogs) which I thought had a bit of value in it.

All information is just a tool.

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What you (and that graph) didn't consider is that we are s**t.
 

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If I were to crack on with 20k id bet .25 a unit at $50 a pop. No more, no less. Always 50 bux. See where that takes you.

Many can't stick to that though. 20k roll and betting 50 bux you're not gonna get ****ed up financially or mentally.

The addiction gets many though. Start off ok, then go haywire after they start to lose or even win.
 
checkraiseulite said:
think about this for one minute.

what do you think is traded in play at qtr time?
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Spads said:
Do you mean, to "balance the book either side of the line" ?
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I probably have this wrong. I assume the line moves due to algorithms based on scores and other statistical information. But what happens if a flood of money or a single large wager comes in for one team? I'm guessing that would have to have an impact as well.
 
Macpotata said:
If I were to crack on with 20k id bet .25 a unit at $50 a pop. No more, no less. Always 50 bux. See where that takes you.

Many can't stick to that though. 20k roll and betting 50 bux you're not gonna get ****** up financially or mentally.

The addiction gets many though. Start off ok, then go haywire after they start to lose or even win.
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Your also not going to make any sort of money betting that small. In the same way that 5% per unit is too much 0.25% per unit is too small
 
Surely this can be worked out? If you you want to make say 2k/month and you have reliable figures of what your ROI is across a decent number of bets to eliminate variance, then you can probably work backwards to determine your number of bets/month, bet size and thus bankroll to achieve that. I expect they are nicely linked in some way.

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ricardogp said:
Surely this can be worked out? If you you want to make say 2k/month and you have reliable figures of what your ROI is across a decent number of bets to eliminate variance, then you can probably work backwards to determine your number of bets/month, bet size and thus bankroll to achieve that. I expect they are nicely linked in some way.

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Remember that page of jokes and memes about the Kelly criterion? Might be relevant.

Does of course require you to know your instantaneous win %, so "may have limitations" in real world application.
 
Jugada said:
Your also not going to make any sort of money betting that small. In the same way that 5% per unit is too much 0.25% per unit is too small
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Not necessarily. if you consistently win, which is the aim obviously, then your units become more money invested per stake. Might take time but again you won't go bust.

Very hard to do it I know particularly with such a small unit base. And in the scenario I give I've obviously made it ultra small but it gives a guy a chance to do what he loves without getting ****ed up. 1 percent of 20k ( one unit ) is obviously 200 bucks. .25 a unit gives the bloke lots to punt with and many chances. He starts losing 200 bucks particularly with his mindset hell get pissed off pretty quickly.

.25 a unit win win situation in my book.
 
Might take longer to win but winning is the name of the game obviously. If you're winning, what's the diff. You're gonna get there. And if you're not well then you wouldn't go bust as fast.

Edit - have a part time job so he's got money coming in and has the best of both worlds. Even for 6 months- one year. Extended holiday with pay:)
 
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As I see it the challenge with relying on a level of income from punting is less about the now and more about the future. The edge you have now could be gone in 6 months. What if the totes all merge? Corps close up shop? BF leaves Aus? O/S bookie bans come in? Others cotton on to your edge and flood the market?

I've made some decent coin over the past 3 yrs poking around nights and weekends but only around half what would be needed as an income. During that time the "edge" has changed around 6 times. Some positive (min bet laws), some negative (bookie bans) but to predict an income for the future is close to impossible.

It's great to supplement an income with no pressure but would imagine the pressure of relying on that coin in an ever changing environment would not be fun.
 

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Macpotata said:
Not necessarily. if you consistently win, which is the aim obviously, then your units become more money invested per stake. Might take time but again you won't go bust.

Very hard to do it I know particularly with such a small unit base. And in the scenario I give I've obviously made it ultra small but it gives a guy a chance to do what he loves without getting ****** up. 1 percent of 20k ( one unit ) is obviously 200 bucks. .25 a unit gives the bloke lots to punt with and many chances. He starts losing 200 bucks particularly with his mindset hell get pissed off pretty quickly.

.25 a unit win win situation in my book.
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This is so far from optimal, so far from efficient, that it really is ineffective as anything but a loss minimisation strategy.
 
Macpotata said:
Not necessarily. if you consistently win, which is the aim obviously, then your units become more money invested per stake. Might take time but again you won't go bust.

Very hard to do it I know particularly with such a small unit base. And in the scenario I give I've obviously made it ultra small but it gives a guy a chance to do what he loves without getting ****** up. 1 percent of 20k ( one unit ) is obviously 200 bucks. .25 a unit gives the bloke lots to punt with and many chances. He starts losing 200 bucks particularly with his mindset hell get pissed off pretty quickly.

.25 a unit win win situation in my book.
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Well presumably the goal isn't just not to go bust, but to actually make an income.
 
Macpotata said:
Might take longer to win but winning is the name of the game obviously. If you're winning, what's the diff. You're gonna get there. And if you're not well then you wouldn't go bust as fast.

Edit - have a part time job so he's got money coming in and has the best of both worlds. Even for 6 months- one year. Extended holiday with pay:)
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If life was infinite and you didn't need to actually pay for things for the next x years then maybe, but it isn't.

If you're never going to make money then may as well bet properly and lose your bankroll in a reasonable time. If the only upside is betting your whole life and having nothing to show for it then whats the point? Just put $50 in your account of a Friday and be a recreational punter
 
54Dogs said:
As I see it the challenge with relying on a level of income from punting is less about the now and more about the future. The edge you have now could be gone in 6 months. What if the totes all merge? Corps close up shop? BF leaves Aus? O/S bookie bans come in? Others cotton on to your edge and flood the market?

I've made some decent coin over the past 3 yrs poking around nights and weekends but only around half what would be needed as an income. During that time the "edge" has changed around 6 times. Some positive (min bet laws), some negative (bookie bans) but to predict an income for the future is close to impossible.

It's great to supplement an income with no pressure but would imagine the pressure of relying on that coin in an ever changing environment would not be fun.
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This post is really sensible. If you have no other significant source of income then there is a lot of pressure on you to 'maintain that edge'. I think the betting environment factors that you've listed are spot on - in particular changes to betting legislation which I don't think any of us can predict but don't seem unrealistic. Already we are seeing them attacking betting advertising and well it wouldn't be illogical to think they will go directly after the source of the problems at some point.

Personally I've been betting for a few years basically feeling it all out and seeing if I could be any good. This is the first year I've raised the stakes to something fairly meaningful after getting pretty decent results. I wouldn't consider having it as my primary income though. Just seems like too much risk for my liking. I intend to keep going but part time hobby is definitely where i'll be keeping it in my life.

Psychologically as well it would be difficult and the uncertainty could negatively impact your life.
 
Duritz said:
Look. If you want to be a professional punter, forget all your fancy words like "variance" and "Kelly" and "bankroll", just man up and back the tigers!!!!
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Thought I'd let you in on my new strategy but Duritz had the same idea. :drunk:

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It's possible but it requires extreme dedication and smarts from what I've gathered.

There's a bloke in the States called Haralabos Voulgaris who has spent years betting professionally on the NBA. He originally got pretty lucky betting his entire life savings as a young bloke on the Lakers winning the title in 2000. Ended up with a sizeable bankroll and took it from there. He exploited an edge regarding totals, specifically second half totals and got to know the patterns of certain coaches so well that he was great at predicting things. The bookies got smarter and eventually removed the edge. Recently and perhaps still now although I'm not entirely sure he was spending his entire days glued to NBA and he's even got his own model that helps him predicts games. Makes a lot of coin but certainly isn't just waiting for the games to roll around and then betting. Just look at how much he tweets about NBA.

He's got math prodigies helping him with his work. http://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

When it comes to things like AFL I'm not all that convinced the bookies are as good as the ones in the States with NFL and NBA where they regularly seem to get lines, totals etc spot on with their own model predictions but I still think it's incredibly hard for the average person to make a living. You need a large bank roll. There's no getting around this. If you're relying solely on gambling to make your money you're going nowhere if your bankroll is small. Big bets are too risky and when results don't go your way you're ****ed. Plus does the average punter see patterns, have maths skills etc that allow them to constantly take advantage of bookmakers? I wouldn't have thought so.
 
Oraz said:
I'm seriously considering quitting my job and becoming a professional punter.

Depositing 20k across various online betting accounts and using a unit size of 1k a unit.

I usually make 20-40u a season profit from AFL.

It's not much but it beats feeling suicidal and working 9 to 5 in an office job (current situation).


The only problem is that I think if you're in a situation where you're relying on punting to make a living then this may influence/bias your punting too much (e.g. you may become more emotionally involved in punting whic his a bad thing).

Also 1k unit is pretty small so i guess you'd have to use 2k unit sizes and 40k bank roll. Might be better (to make a living off).

Pros:

- potentially make 40-50k a year tax free (potantially higher in future years as bank roll grows)
- get to work when you want
- only have to work during AFL season
- Get to watch AFL .


Cons:

- lot's of pressure
- might not be feasible for the long term.
- need a massive bank roll and savings
- might get banned from betting agencies.
- no gurantee to make money
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from round 5

Oraz said:
Feel absolutely sick

Just lost 4u because of the Dees.

Down 6.5u for the round

Lost 70% of my season profit to date in one round.

Absolutely sick. Shaking in real life. Feel terrible.
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Oraz said:
It doesn't but glad someone is winning at least.

Anyway

6u Essendon +10.5 @ 1.92
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For your own good, i really don't think you should be considering doing it full time, you could find yourself down $20k in a matter of weeks (or days). You'd need to be able to handle the big losing days/weeks/months and make the smart moves to slowly get back.

Most of the time gambling is 3 steps forward, 2 steps back. Everyone has losses at some point and they can be big or small, just like how your wins can be big or small. I've made some stupid bets (and a few in recent weeks), but what you need to do is not have you judgement and decision making clouded by losses and chasing them (even though it can be hard not to). Remember the cycle of 3 steps forward, 2 steps back and keep going 3 forward, 2 back, 3 forward, 2 back and so on and you'll slowly make a profit over time. You need to not make any decisions when you're in a 2 step back part of the cycle that can put you in a position to be 4, 5, 6, 7 steps back.
 
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FallingLiefs said:
it's amazing how many people in a random sample of this football website make enough money punting to the point they think they could do it full time.

amazing.


it's a wonder these corporates can stay afloat.
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Just back Freo to win under 4.5 games. Free money for you.
 
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