Professional Punters

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noffle said:
You're reducing your payout and reducing your risk, which effectively turns a $1.14 bet into a $1.05 bet (or whatever, depending on how aggressively you're laying off), but you're only going to make a long-term profit if there is some kind of market inefficiency on the U/4.5 goals markets. It's hard to see how you beat the Betfair commission without any edge.
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I think there is definately a market inefficiency with live betting. I my opinion the market overreacts to small events within a game.

We see this most prominantly with the Big Bash. A player will hit two sixes and the odds will go from $1.80 to $1.50 in two balls. Same when a wicket falls. The change in price is more than it should be in my view.

Anyway, it's all a bit of an experiment. I'll let you know how it goes. I think we should all be helping each other out on this board.
 
Dan26 said:
It's the UNDER 4.5 goals market. 0-0 and 1-0 games are a win.

My tactic is to place a "back" bet before the game and only place a "lay" bet if the 4th goal is scored before the 75th minute.
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Fair enough. In your original post you implied that you always placed a lay without mentioning anything about the status of the game.

Interesting tactic though.

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Dan26 said:
I think there is definately a market inefficiency with live betting. I my opinion the market overreacts to small events within a game.

We see this most prominantly with the Big Bash. A player will hit two sixes and the odds will go from $1.80 to $1.50 in two balls. Same when a wicket falls. The change in price is more than it should be in my view.

Anyway, it's all a bit of an experiment. I'll let you know how it goes. I think we should all be helping each other out on this board.
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I think you are right that there are market inefficiencies for live betting and I like your cricket example. I used to try and exploit this on test matches after (or part way through) the first innings. I found betting on the favourite after they were 7/170 or such after 2 sessions was almost a gimme because the market was not accounting for the fact that only one team had batted on the pitch. The faves would blow out to over $5 (home subcontinent teams were my fave) and then look and behold the same would happen to the other side. You only needed half the matches to go your way to turn a profit.

Problem is those types of matches are few and far between.

I've seem similar things in tennis and seen some tipsters profit from it (especially WTA) where a fave drops serve early in the first and the market tends to overreact.

Only problem is the bookies tend to account for this by increasing their margins in live betting markets.

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Oraz said:
Depositing 20k across various online betting accounts and using a unit size of 1k a unit.
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1k units are WAY too high. Also get ready to be banned from sites if you are making that much and start having to use bowlers.
 
flylikeaneagle said:
American sports are by far the hardest to win off long term

I've got a lot of respect for anyone who can
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Yeah he and his staff put in plenty of hours finding an edge in the nba. Cant imagine the work that goes into finding as little as 4 to 5% edge
 
Duritz said:
They're all very full of themselves. In fact I reckon they're just a pack of quants.
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I think the one variable that few factor into this is the cost of your TIME.

I've done well enough to be banned from a few of the corporates.
The problem is the effort put in to do the form. Watching the games to trade off in certain situations.

For arguments sake lets say you are above average and are hitting 7 out of 10 moneylines at $1.92
In this fantasy world you are betting in 5k units.
The above is a profit of just over $17,000 for a risk of $50,000.

So if you want an ok wage around 85k a year get ready to risk 250k and have the above average
ability to be correct 70% of the time over 50 plays.

I believe it is the Ranogajec and David Walsh crew from Mona down in Tassie that have the only sustainable model.
Betting gazillions with all sorts incentives provided to them and winning about 1.5% on turn over.

Below is a fascinating read on him.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/th...66aca1cfa?sv=d317425740c5e801ac985d477e0a5097
 

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Although I've got a good handicapping record in the long run (I think), there's no way I'd quit my job and rely betting for a main income. I trust my system but the main reason would be stress, not only stress from relying on bets to win, but the stress it was cause my family (Already stressful enough with a 3 year old daughter). If I was a single bloke it would probably be a different story. Having said that I'm still a little naive when it comes to the betting world, only been seriously betting for about 3 years. Just finished reading David Walsh's autobiography (The MONA guy), very interesting read, especially the punting parts. Guy was a pro, but did get very lucky at the cup one year (his own words). His partnership with Zeljko Ranogajec was pretty impressive, but they mainly bet horses.
 
chrisdon16 said:
Although I've got a good handicapping record in the long run (I think), there's no way I'd quit my job and rely betting for a main income. I trust my system but the main reason would be stress, not only stress from relying on bets to win, but the stress it was cause my family (Already stressful enough with a 3 year old daughter). If I was a single bloke it would probably be a different story. Having said that I'm still a little naive when it comes to the betting world, only been seriously betting for about 3 years. Just finished reading David Walsh's autobiography (The MONA guy), very interesting read, especially the punting parts. Guy was a pro, but did get very lucky at the cup one year (his own words). His partnership with Zeljko Ranogajec was pretty impressive, but they mainly bet horses.
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I think it's severely underrated how difficult it is to gamble full time. Much of this is due to having to the develop emotional control needed to survive variance and downswings.

Having a family is a blessing and a curse as it's good to have an outlet, but you don't necessarily want people around when your in the foetal position. It also can be quite isolating and you can't really discuss a bad day with your partner like you could a normal job.
 
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