Autopsy QF 2019 - Pies d Cats by 10 points

catempire

Moderator
Mar 20, 2004
33,179
60,844
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
That's very interesting - where do you find those stats and how are they measured?
They publish them in the Herald Sun after each game.

Basically they assess every shot at goal every player takes and give it an “expected score”. So from outside 50m on the run you might score one in ten goals so that is worth 0.6. A set shot in the goalsquare might be worth 5.9. They then compare that to what you actually scored. It’s the best way we have of assessing accuracy as it takes into account the difficulty of the chances created.
 

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TheWoodenSlug

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 24, 2008
5,789
11,394
AFL Club
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They publish them in the Herald Sun after each game.

Basically they assess every shot at goal every player takes and give it an “expected score”. So from outside 50m on the run you might score one in ten goals so that is worth 0.6. A set shot in the goalsquare might be worth 5.9. They then compare that to what you actually scored. It’s the best way we have of assessing accuracy as it takes into account the difficulty of the chances created.
Nice. So if we'd taken our chances we'd have won by a couple of goals.

Optimism for Friday rising.
 

Mr Meow

Club Legend
Aug 7, 2016
2,229
4,006
AFL Club
Geelong
That's very interesting - where do you find those stats and how are they measured?
This week it was just On The Couch - not sure where the actual source comes from. I'm no expert but I think it's simply from collating the probabilities of goals and behinds being generated from each scoring shot. More that than rating things like inside 50s, quality of entries etc - really just assessing what the expected conversion from the shots on goal. Somebody can correct me on this?

Edit: only just read the subsequent replies to this - whoopsie.
 

Hello Kitty

Moniker: Miss Kitty
Jan 24, 2010
29,345
32,623
New England, NSW
AFL Club
Geelong
Should ask for a trade. Imagine going to a club that has had a horrendous run with rucks and they bring you in, only to drop you in a big match. Staggering.
I’m ashamed to say, perhaps not ashamed, more embarrassed to say I’ve not been much of a Stanley supporter. I thought he was good in Rd1. Treatment of Stanley is poor. Plays a few good games, has one bad one + is dropped.
 

Hello Kitty

Moniker: Miss Kitty
Jan 24, 2010
29,345
32,623
New England, NSW
AFL Club
Geelong

Play it Sam

Cupcakes are muffins who believed in miracles
Jun 25, 2013
1,792
2,905
Medicoland
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Replayaholics
Geelong Addy reveals Geelong supporters’ reaction to the game.

“Fed up Cats fans vent after loss to Magpies
It’s fair to say Geelong fans were more than a little upset with the Cats’ showing against the Magpies on Friday night. Find out what they had to say in letters and texts sent to the Addy.”

https://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/news/opinion/fed-up-cats-fans-vent-after-loss-to-magpies/news-story/0cc88feb561e3a6998da20a8e204b746
That scumbag rag is the worst for paywall Kitty. Probably same as BF comments? Anything funny?
 

00VicWard001

Premiership Player
Sep 3, 2011
4,899
9,233
AFL Club
Geelong

Thought everyone might like to listen to this.

Jimmy Bartel makes some astute points and he is also quite defensive of the Cats performance.

The reason I think it’s a valid point is that Jimmy isn’t one to always take the Cats side. He’s been scathing in the past.

He repeatedly mentions that the ruck situation was not the reason that the cats lost and neither was the game location. He discusses how our slow boundary play created defensive holes in our midfield that allowed rebound attacks from the Pies.
 

Catters 070911

Club Legend
Suspended
Oct 13, 2017
2,034
1,931
AFL Club
Geelong
He would have a point if it just the one final loss, this has been years in the making with many different team set ups

There is only one common denominator in all of these pathetic final losses

Except that, I subscribe to the idea that if you are 100% responsible for the losses, you should be held 100% responsible for the wins too.

So you can't put everything on CS when we lose, and nothing on the players, and then give players all the credit for wins, and none to the coach.

Both parties were ordinary Friday night. CS did coach poorly, and needs to be held account for that, but he can't be held responsible for Hawkins or Rohan missing shots for goal from 2m out.

Much of it is skill error, and it is on the players to demonstrate that skill. They are the ones with the massive contracts.

You should ask questions of the coach, but also ask questions of why are we paying Tom Hawkins to go three weeks without kicking a goal. The players need to wear some of this.

Wins and losses are on the coach AND the players. They are together in success and defeat.
 

Catters 070911

Club Legend
Suspended
Oct 13, 2017
2,034
1,931
AFL Club
Geelong
He would have a point if it just the one final loss, this has been years in the making with many different team set ups

There is only one common denominator in all of these pathetic final losses

Except that, I subscribe to the idea that if you are 100% responsible for the losses, you should be held 100% responsible for the wins too.

So you can't put everything on CS when we lose, and nothing on the players, and then give players all the credit for wins, and none to the coach.

Both parties were ordinary Friday night. CS did coach poorly, and needs to be held account for that, but he can't be held responsible for Hawkins or Rohan missing shots for goal from 2m out.

Much of it is skill error, and it is on the players to demonstrate that skill. They are the ones with the massive contracts.

You should ask questions of the coach, but also ask questions of why are we paying Tom Hawkins to go three weeks without kicking a goal. The players need to wear some of this.

Wins and losses are on the coach AND the players. They are together in success and defeat.
 

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Turbocat

Premium Platinum
Dec 10, 2003
39,988
37,209
Newtown
AFL Club
Geelong
Confirming what we all saw, that Geelong seemed to be outplayed but actually had the more convincing totality of chances. Expected score Geelong 73 vs Collingwood 58. Geez, just imagine if they actually played well AND learned to kick for goal.
Thats does not make it more soothing ..in fact its just an example of a waste of an important game.
 

Billy Bob65

All Australian
May 15, 2005
975
3,918
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Commiserations on the loss.

Here are the midfield frequency stats from the game. If you haven't seen a previous post, this is an overall summary of how often your players were lining up as one of the 5 mids at bounces.

NB> As the AFL's rubbish new match centre is now permanent, centre clearances will not appear in this post as they are no longer accessible for free as Champion Data have now gleefully reclaimed them as well several other previously free key ones (kicking efficiency).

Overall Summary - 19 Bounces

J.Selwood 17 (9i, 8w)
Dangerfield 17 (1w)
Menegola 15 (11w, 4i)
Kelly 12
Narkle 11 (3w)
Duncan 8 (7w, 1i)
Parfitt 7 (5w, 2i)
Ablett 4
Dahlhaus 2 wing
Atkins 2 (1i, 1w)

Rucks:
Blicavs 12
Ratugolea 7

Q1 - 6

J.Selwood 5 (4w, 1i)
Duncan 5 wing
Menegola 5 (1w)
Narkle 5 (1w)
Dangerfield 4 (1w)
Kelly 4
Parfitt 1
Ablett 1

Blicavs 4
Ratugolea 2

Q2 - 6

J.Selwood 6 (4i, 2w)
Dangerfield 6
Menegola 5 wing
Kelly 3
Narkle 3
Duncan 3 (2w, 1i)
Dahlhaus 2 wing
Parfitt 1
Ablett 1

Blicavs 4
Ratugolea 2

Q3 - 4

Dangerfield 4
J.Selwood 3 (2w, 1i)
Kelly 3
Menegola 3 wing
Parfitt 2 wing
Narkle 2
Atkins 2 (1i, 1w)
Ablett 1

Ratugolea 2
Blicavs 2

Q4 - 3

J.Selwood 3
Dangerfield 3
Parfitt 3 wing
Kelly 2
Menegola 2 wing
Narkle 1 wing
Ablett 1

Blicavs 2
Ratugolea 1

Notes:
- Most starts for Dahlhaus in analysed games since Rd 2
 
Jan 27, 2019
76
166
AFL Club
Collingwood
Interesting to note that CFC and GFC are the two grownups in the room despite their traditional rivalry and current bids for the 2019 flag. The scratch game, giving players who may be in contention for their respective clubs' next final game, was somewhat on the down low but also mutually beneficial to both Pies and Cats. By the bye, the Cats won handily. Good luck, hope you beat the crap out of the Weagles.
 

cats_09

Spec Moderator
Jun 21, 2011
14,099
25,631
AFL Club
Geelong
I hope every Geelong fan & member who got the following email/survey from the AFL asking about last week's game, gives very honest feedback and let's them know the bs around scheduling etc

85CB3BBA-06B9-40A9-95BA-803603A32547.jpeg
 

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