Preview R1 - Port Adelaide @ Melbourne

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#76
Is it? Do you have any stats on that?
Last one I remember without some memory jogging research was Ollie Wines' first game where we flogged them. Most of our away games v them in recent years have been at one of the NT venues.
Just about the only time we've beaten Melbourne at the G in our existence.
 

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#78
We've had a superb recent R1 record - 8 wins from our last 10. Only losses were '11 when we couldn't beat anyone and '15 when Freo overran our underdone team late. It's actually getting to the point where it would feel weird to lose in R1.
It's getting more to point where it doesn't really matter whether we win the first match or not
 
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#79
And in a new era of 6-6-6, those clearances will combine with what we saw quite clearly last week, that we are horrible at defending quick ball in. As such we will give up far too many goals, too easily, to give ourselves a real shot.
The players were given a rocket at quarter time, Ken was furious with that patch as they went totally away from their structures. After quarter time we only conceded 1 goal for centre clearance vs 6 in the first quarter alone.
 

Kingfish73

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#80
Melbourne were pretty phenomenal last year at generating scores from their midfield group. Up forward they were ok and down back they were pretty average, winning by dominating the midfield and territory more so than forward craft.

Over the course of 2018 their defence was probably the worst out of all the finalists (except maybe Hawthorn) and was horribly exposed in games they didn't win the midfield contest (which admittedly, was rare), no more so than when they got belted in the prelim.

They recruited accordingly to try help rectify this weakness but luckily for us both May and Kolodasjni aren't playing.

Melbourne tried to move the ball forward very quickly and often got burnt on the counter - unfortunately for us we were one of the worst rebounding teams last season but hopefully our quicker ball movement will get us a few more opportunities.

In terms of the rule changes Melbourne were #1 last year in CB clearances and scoring from that source...We were #2 at winning CBs but a bit mediocre at turning them into scores.

I guess we have a couple of options

1. Go toe to toe with Melbourne at CBs and back in the likes of Rockpig, SPP, New Boak, Ryder & Lycett to break even in the middle
2. Concede the battle and play to shark the ruck work of Gawn

Either way we've probably got to be prepared to be conceding a lot of inside 50s so our defence needs to be set up to minimise opportunities for Melbourne to win ground balls. Ideally through intercept marking, but honestly we're better at killing the contest rather than intercepting, which may just play into Melbourne's hands.

If we can stop the ball from getting to our defence as often as possible (ideally through winning clearances and pressuring to keep the ball in the front half) we'll go a long way to winning but I feel that Melbourne's midfield will just be too good for too long.

We're probably relying on Melbourne's midfield having a bad day out more than anything or our midfield exhibiting a level of form not seen at all in 2018, so I'm hopeful rather than expectant.
Assessment of this review
images.jpeg

To win our experienced mids need to have a stellar game. Our forwards need to convert efficiently and we can ill afford our def to have repeat entries. Mind you the Mlb mids melted under intense pressure last year. We need to be relentless at winning contested footy and generate the errors from their contested mids releasing to their outside runners. And we need to do it for 4 quarters!! Not just 2 and rely on Robbie pulling out 4/5 goal quarter to stay in game
 
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#81
Great analysis. However, I think that if Ryder plays, we split the centre bounce clearances. But it's the stoppages around the ground that they could really clean us up. They're also really good with defensive pressure.

On the other hand, now that we're moving the ball much better, it's our ball movement rather than stacking the defence (remember last year? they got something like 70 i50s but we still won) that will give them trouble. And because of their emphasis on contested ball, they only have a few players (Salem, Oliver, Hibberd, Fritsch) who use the ball well; otherwise it's all a bit hit-and-miss. That's why their tall marking forwards (Tom McDonald & Weideman & Gawn when he goes there) are so important to them.
I agree that their ball movement is very hit and miss which is why our "drop deeper" defence worked well against them last season at AO - Melbourne couldn't work an effective alternative to better deliver inside 50. If we were any good at rebounding we probably would have won by more.

If they haven't improved this aspect of their game in the pre-season they might struggle against teams who will sit back and mop up the hacks forward and counter attack with precision (E.g Eagles, Crows).

I don't really want us to return to a deeper team defence against Melbourne, purely because it will be less effective against most other teams (E.g a complete waste of time the following week vs Carlton) and in the long term we want a game-style that forces teams to react to us instead.
 
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#82
Big expectations on Melbourne this year. They don't like the pressure and showed this in LY's Prelim, I expect big things from our group and believe we will win this game. Great injection of genuine talent and that kids don't fear anyone, I'm driving over and cant wait.
 

schmuttt

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#85
I agree that their ball movement is very hit and miss which is why our "drop deeper" defence worked well against them last season at AO - Melbourne couldn't work an effective alternative to better deliver inside 50. If we were any good at rebounding we probably would have won by more.

If they haven't improved this aspect of their game in the pre-season they might struggle against teams who will sit back and mop up the hacks forward and counter attack with precision (E.g Eagles, Crows).

I don't really want us to return to a deeper team defence against Melbourne, purely because it will be less effective against most other teams (E.g a complete waste of time the following week vs Carlton) and in the long term we want a game-style that forces teams to react to us instead.
Your analysis of us struggling against a deeper defence is excellent and I completely agree. Strange thing is we give the Crows a lot of trouble when we play them, I think a lot of the time it comes down to how our midfield uses the ball. We’ve had a lot of losses where we dominate play but teams play smarter than us and hit us on the rebound, however when we get it right even for a quarter we can kick 6-7 goals in no time.
 
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Moderator #86
Yes, a 1-2 record over 12 years is relevant.

Expect it'll be a close game, won't surprise me if we start the year slowly and Port are pretty good defensively so we will likely have a lot of inside 50s for little reward. Hope Ollies shoulder is ready...
We will be a far different team this year. Huge personnel changes and a gear change from ultra defensive to ultra attacking. Who knows if any of this will work out for the better or the worse, but we won't look anything like the dour, defensive scrappers we were in 2018.
 

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Andre

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#87
We'll either win or our midfield is beaten and defense can't cope and we get flogged. The key is Ryder needs to get up and he and Lycett alternate between him jumping over Gawn in the start of quarters and Lycett jumping into him at the end of quarters when tired, so he's stuffed by the end of the third at the latest. Then run over them late off of dominating the midfield. I don't see another realistic path to victory.
 

chiwigi

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#95
We will be a far different team this year. Huge personnel changes and a gear change from ultra defensive to ultra attacking. Who knows if any of this will work out for the better or the worse, but we won't look anything like the dour, defensive scrappers we were in 2018.
I think we will be better, but wont necessarily win as many games.
2020 is the next shot by the looks of it.
 
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#97
Your analysis of us struggling against a deeper defence is excellent and I completely agree. Strange thing is we give the Crows a lot of trouble when we play them, I think a lot of the time it comes down to how our midfield uses the ball. We’ve had a lot of losses where we dominate play but teams play smarter than us and hit us on the rebound, however when we get it right even for a quarter we can kick 6-7 goals in no time.
its usually on the back of Viney, when he plays it seems the rest of the midfield get off and running, when he doesnt Melbourne seem to lack that last good midfielder
 

Doctor Feel

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#99
Why would Ryder confirm Ollie was playing when Ollie is captain? Unless Ryder is captain as well now.
Ollie confirmed that Tredrea said that Ryder would play, but Ryder said that Wines was a certainty while he was still under a cloud. Tredrea said he was hit and miss, but Ollie wasn't certain.

But seriously -

It was Ryder that was confirmed for R1, not Wines.
 
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