Preview R1 - Port Adelaide @ Melbourne

[AFC AFeederClub]

we will win by heaps and Simon Goodwin will suddenly develop a involuntary twitch to his eye in the press conference in the spirit of Mark Neeld to commemorate Hinkley's coaching debut at the G

 

[Port85]

Melbourne were pretty phenomenal last year at generating scores from their midfield group. Up forward they were ok and down back they were pretty average, winning by dominating the midfield and territory more so than forward craft.

Over the course of 2018 their defence was probably the worst out of all the finalists (except maybe Hawthorn) and was horribly exposed in games they didn't win the midfield contest (which admittedly, was rare), no more so than when they got belted in the prelim.

They recruited accordingly to try help rectify this weakness but luckily for us both May and Kolodasjni aren't playing.

Melbourne tried to move the ball forward very quickly and often got burnt on the counter - unfortunately for us we were one of the worst rebounding teams last season but hopefully our quicker ball movement will get us a few more opportunities.

In terms of the rule changes Melbourne were #1 last year in CB clearances and scoring from that source...We were #2 at winning CBs but a bit mediocre at turning them into scores.

I guess we have a couple of options

1. Go toe to toe with Melbourne at CBs and back in the likes of Rockpig, SPP, New Boak, Ryder & Lycett to break even in the middle
2. Concede the battle and play to shark the ruck work of Gawn

Either way we've probably got to be prepared to be conceding a lot of inside 50s so our defence needs to be set up to minimise opportunities for Melbourne to win ground balls. Ideally through intercept marking, but honestly we're better at killing the contest rather than intercepting, which may just play into Melbourne's hands.

If we can stop the ball from getting to our defence as often as possible (ideally through winning clearances and pressuring to keep the ball in the front half) we'll go a long way to winning but I feel that Melbourne's midfield will just be too good for too long.

We're probably relying on Melbourne's midfield having a bad day out more than anything or our midfield exhibiting a level of form not seen at all in 2018, so I'm hopeful rather than expectant.

 

[TeeKray]

We've had a superb recent R1 record - 8 wins from our last 10. Only losses were '11 when we couldn't beat anyone and '15 when Freo overran our underdone team late. It's actually getting to the point where it would feel weird to lose in R1.

 

[PowerBaz]

In before Sam Gray.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Since 2007 when we beat Melb by 5 Pts at MCG Rd 6 and 89 pts at Footy Park Rd 17 we have played Melbourne;

MCG........ 3 times 1 win (2013 79 pts) and 2 losses (2009 11 pts and 2017 23 pts)
Darwin..... 3 times 1 win and 2 loses (2010 1 pt and 2011 21 pts)
Alice........ 3 times 3 wins
Footy Park 3 times 3 wins
Adelaide O 4 times 3 wins and 1 loss (2016 40 pts)
For an 11-5 record

They don't like playing us at the MCG.

 

[GremioPower]

This is the probably worst match preview I've ever read, but I've gotta give it to you - I love the swagger

He could have included some humour, indeed — for instance, saying that the "666 rule" was made for, and named after, the Demons.

But, come on, we are all still in preseason mode.

Port by 13.

 

[Amarula]

Melbourne were pretty phenomenal last year at generating scores from their midfield group. Up forward they were ok and down back they were pretty average, winning by dominating the midfield and territory more so than forward craft.

Over the course of 2018 their defence was probably the worst out of all the finalists (except maybe Hawthorn) and was horribly exposed in games they didn't win the midfield contest (which admittedly, was rare), no more so than when they got belted in the prelim.

They recruited accordingly to try help rectify this weakness but luckily for us both May and Kolodasjni aren't playing.

Melbourne tried to move the ball forward very quickly and often got burnt on the counter - unfortunately for us we were one of the worst rebounding teams last season but hopefully our quicker ball movement will get us a few more opportunities.

In terms of the rule changes Melbourne were #1 last year in CB clearances and scoring from that source...We were #2 at winning CBs but a bit mediocre at turning them into scores.

I guess we have a couple of options

1. Go toe to toe with Melbourne at CBs and back in the likes of Rockpig, SPP, New Boak, Ryder & Lycett to break even in the middle
2. Concede the battle and play to shark the ruck work of Gawn

Either way we've probably got to be prepared to be conceding a lot of inside 50s so our defence needs to be set up to minimise opportunities for Melbourne to win ground balls. Ideally through intercept marking, but honestly we're better at killing the contest rather than intercepting, which may just play into Melbourne's hands.

If we can stop the ball from getting to our defence as often as possible (ideally through winning clearances and pressuring to keep the ball in the front half) we'll go a long way to winning but I feel that Melbourne's midfield will just be too good for too long.

We're probably relying on Melbourne's midfield having a bad day out more than anything or our midfield exhibiting a level of form not seen at all in 2018, so I'm hopeful rather than expectant.

Great analysis. However, I think that if Ryder plays, we split the centre bounce clearances. But it's the stoppages around the ground that they could really clean us up. They're also really good with defensive pressure.

On the other hand, now that we're moving the ball much better, it's our ball movement rather than stacking the defence (remember last year? they got something like 70 i50s but we still won) that will give them trouble. And because of their emphasis on contested ball, they only have a few players (Salem, Oliver, Hibberd, Fritsch) who use the ball well; otherwise it's all a bit hit-and-miss. That's why their tall marking forwards (Tom McDonald & Weideman & Gawn when he goes there) are so important to them.

 

[schmuttt]

Since 2007 when we beat Melb by 5 Pts at MCG Rd 6 and 89 pts at Footy Park Rd 17 we have played Melbourne;

MCG........ 3 times 1 win (2013 79 pts) and 2 losses (2009 11 pts and 2017 23 pts)
Darwin..... 3 times 1 win and 2 loses (2010 1 pt and 2011 21 pts)
Alice........ 3 times 3 wins
Footy Park 3 times 3 wins
Adelaide O 4 times 3 wins and 1 loss (2016 40 pts)
For an 11-5 record

They don't like playing us at the MCG.

Yes, a 1-2 record over 12 years is relevant.

Expect it'll be a close game, won't surprise me if we start the year slowly and Port are pretty good defensively so we will likely have a lot of inside 50s for little reward. Hope Ollies shoulder is ready...

 

[dirty2]

I believe it will be a good game... and will go down to the wire.

Mrs was saying about going to the ports v melb game and getting a hotel... my comment.. sounds great... but um... it's in Melbourne...

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yes, a 1-2 record over 12 years is relevant.

Expect it'll be a close game, won't surprise me if we start the year slowly and Port are pretty good defensively so we will likely have a lot of inside 50s for little reward. Hope Ollies shoulder is ready...

Someone quoted we are 2-8 at the MCG, so that's why I put up the last 3 games there. History doesn't mean much there given we lost the first 6 in the first 10 seasons Port played in the AFL and then have mainly played Melbourne in the NT as away games.

 

[Tulip]

Since 2007 when we beat Melb by 5 Pts at MCG Rd 6 and 89 pts at Footy Park Rd 17 we have played Melbourne;

MCG........ 3 times 1 win (2013 79 pts) and 2 losses (2009 11 pts and 2017 23 pts)
Darwin..... 3 times 1 win and 2 loses (2010 1 pt and 2011 21 pts)
Alice........ 3 times 3 wins
Footy Park 3 times 3 wins
Adelaide O 4 times 3 wins and 1 loss (2016 40 pts)
For an 11-5 record

They don't like playing us at the MCG.

Mate we didn't like playing anyone anywhere between about 2007-2015

 

[GremioPower]

Yes, a 1-2 record over 12 years is relevant...

Mate we didn't like playing anyone anywhere between about 2007-2015

Read again. The point is that you hosted just 1/3 of your home games against us at the MCG.

 

[spookism]

What is this weekend off bullshit.

I want footy now.

Also, cannot seriously predict how this game will go.

One team to win by eleventy-twelve points.

 

[Powerstufff]

We are 2-8 vs Melbourne @ MCG.

We've beaten them in 2007 and 2013.

Suffice to say its not a happy match up for us.

OK that's a bigger discrepancy than I'd have thought. But back in the days of Neitz and Schwarz, and with Daniher coaching, they were a formidable opponent. Just looked it up on FinalSiren.com and it's interesting reading. Let me know if that link works, may be dependent on cookies on my PC.
Personally I'd draw a line under the pre-NT games at the G and those since. Had they played their home games actually at home when they were at their weakest in recent years the G would not look so formidable.

In the table below a team name in yellow indicates a PAFC win

 

[Ports1870]

Honestly got no idea how this games gonna pan out. I’m thinking maybe could be similar to Round 1, 2017 against Sydney and we usually come out and play well round 1 but who knows.

 

[Canoogs]

Yes, a 1-2 record over 12 years is relevant.

Expect it'll be a close game, won't surprise me if we start the year slowly and Port are pretty good defensively so we will likely have a lot of inside 50s for little reward. Hope Ollies shoulder is ready...

I think you missed the point. He's not saying that you didn't like playing us there because of the way games were decided... he's saying that you didn't like playing us there, because our sides seemed to want to play in as many other stadiums as we possibly could.

 

[schmuttt]

Someone quoted we are 2-8 at the MCG, so that's why I put up the last 3 games there. History doesn't mean much there given we lost the first 6 in the first 10 seasons Port played in the AFL and then have mainly played Melbourne in the NT as away games.

Read again. The point is that you hosted just 1/3 of your home games against us at the MCG.

I think you missed the point. He's not saying that you didn't like playing us there because of the way games were decided... he's saying that you didn't like playing us there, because our sides seemed to want to play in as many other stadiums as we possibly could.

Yeah I misread, apologies.

Just want the season to start FFS

 

[Ryand]

Do Ollie and drew play in the same team?

 

[Coobk001]

Our midfield got hammered in the clearances against the Kangas, and they had a B Grade ruck with B grade mids. Melbourne have elite ball hunters and will likely slaughter us in the middle unless Paddy and Lycett play the game of a lifetime.

I mean Last time we played the clearance count was 54 to 38, and this time we can't stack the backline to compensate.

And in a new era of 6-6-6, those clearances will combine with what we saw quite clearly last week, that we are horrible at defending quick ball in. As such we will give up far too many goals, too easily, to give ourselves a real shot.

The one shining light last week was our ball movement, and general play. If we can be on point with that again, then we may have a slither of hope, but everything would have to go right, and years of watching our poor skills struggle to fill me with much hope of that.


Melbourne by 37.

106 to 69

 

[JUSTWORK]

Do Ollie and drew play in the same team?

Not round 1, quite possibly later in the year though. If one of Boak, Rockliff or SPP go out Drew is next inside mid inline to come in.

 

[Ryand]

So he’s back at the maggies if all the inside players are fit.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Yes, a 1-2 record over 12 years is relevant.

Expect it'll be a close game, won't surprise me if we start the year slowly and Port are pretty good defensively so we will likely have a lot of inside 50s for little reward. Hope Ollies shoulder is ready...

We USED to be good defensively

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yeah I misread, apologies.

Just want the season to start FFS

That one line comment was more about you make more $$$ playing us in NT rather MCG and we even moved a game to AO before the redevelopment because it was driven by the $$$. The fact we played you 6 times at the MCG between 1997-2006 and lost all those games, shows how much the economics of footy has changed, first by the 2002-06 TV deal and ditching 7's monopoly and then subsequent TV deals where every game is live against the gate after that.

 

[RossFC]

So he’s back at the maggies if all the inside players are fit.

Drew couldn’t get on the park last year and is now in a new role. I think some SANFL games under his belt wouldn’t be a bad thing.

 

[PAFC66]

Nah we'll win this one. Melbourne are off. They'll start slow I reckon.