Preview R11: Changes vs Eagles

[Southerntakeover]

Are our home crowd this year the highest since 2017? Do you attend home matches?

The Western Stand has been at 70% full in recent years but have been close to 100% most games this year. I was surprised that there was more than 40,000 on Mothers’ Day afternoon. Last year the Brisbane game had 33,188 on a Sunday in late May.

I would consider playing both ROB and Strachan this week and hopefully (no forced change) we can bring on another runner mid way through the third quarter.

It's almost like we started the season with premium night slots against big name opponents.

Predicting a huge one this Sunday are you?

 

[Carn The Texan]

A few people asking if Pedlar's shoulder should be tested in the SANFL. Unsure what this actually means. We've chosen to rehab it rather than repair, even the healthiest shoulder is an inherently unstable joint, and the club physios are depending on the supporting muscles being strong enough to maintain the shoulder to the end of the year. He can land on it strangely in a tackle in the SANFL at any time just the same as he could in AFL. There might be other reasons for not starting in the AFL but the shoulder shouldn't be one of them if they think its strong enough to play.

 

[GreyCrow]

A few people asking if Pedlar's shoulder should be tested in the SANFL. Unsure what this actually means. We've chosen to rehab it rather than repair, even the healthiest shoulder is an inherently unstable joint, and the club physios are depending on the supporting muscles being strong enough to maintain the shoulder to the end of the year. He can land on it strangely in a tackle in the SANFL at any time just the same as he could in AFL. There might be other reasons for not starting in the AFL but the shoulder shouldn't be one of them if they think its strong enough to play.

I wonder who our sub is

 

[jenny61_99]

A few people asking if Pedlar's shoulder should be tested in the SANFL. Unsure what this actually means. We've chosen to rehab it rather than repair, even the healthiest shoulder is an inherently unstable joint, and the club physios are depending on the supporting muscles being strong enough to maintain the shoulder to the end of the year. He can land on it strangely in a tackle in the SANFL at any time just the same as he could in AFL. There might be other reasons for not starting in the AFL but the shoulder shouldn't be one of them if they think its strong enough to play.

As I said a week or so ago, they made this mistake with Porplyzia when the “experts” said no further damage could be done. But the fact remained, we were left a player short every time the damn thing popped out again. Put him in for surgery now and get him ready for next season.

 

[Slippery Pete]

As I said a week or so ago, they made this mistake with Porplyzia when the “experts” said no further damage could be done.

The experts don’t make mistakes!

 

[jenny61_99]

The experts don’t make mistakes!

I know PLENTY of experts that make mistakes. But apparently, nobody in here does…

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I wonder who our sub is

That would be perfect. Tradition!

Just wait a quarter to come on while we tape up Luke's shoulder

 

[Mutineer]

I know PLENTY of experts that make mistakes. But apparently, nobody in here does…

Brad and Matt Crouch say hi...both lost a full season before having the surgery required to get them back playing.

 

[kick it to me_]

Sounds like Pedlar is in based on a quote in the injury report so I'd assume he replaces Rankine in a fwd/mid role. Not common for us to put somebody back into the 22 after a month off but there you go.

Gollant for Berg.

Hoping we can find space for Schoenberg somewhere.

Jones to sub, shoenberg on the wing and mchenry out the 23 would be ideal.

On SM-S928B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[CrowBloke]

You had me, until this:

Sholl. I used to be a hater, but now believe his class outweighs his negatives, namely being softness.

I'll bet Sholl trains like a Brownlow Medallist and delivers lace-out every time.
However, he only looks good in the heat of battle when the team is doing well against weaker opposition ie when Sholl has time and space to show his (admittedly) many skills.
As you pointed out he's soft, does not win the hardball contest in general play and gets ragdolled easily because he's built like a scrawny pre-pubic boy and is contact averse.

Career-wise, he averages 1.34 tackles and 0.64 1%ers/ game. That's just not good enough.

Outside, under no pressure, in time and space, he's good.
Can anyone imagine him having game impact in the furnace of a Final (if we ever make another one)?
I can't see it.

 

[CrowBloke]

No but they also have the gangly giraffe who tries program.

Gold.

He runs and kicks like a praying-mantis-turned-HULK.

 

[CrowBloke]

And I'd be sounding out other clubs to look at trades, already.

funny you should say.
They've made a play for WCE's Yeo, of all players .

 

[CrowBloke]

bring in Curtin, Dowling, Strachan, Taylor NOW

If we supporters are lucky, Finals will be really impossible come the Bye Round and our new Coach will do just that after sending Smith down to the SANFL.
But what does this mean, please?

get some expsire withs

 

[Crouch]

You had me, until this:


I'll bet Sholl trains like a Brownlow Medallist and delivers lace-out every time.
However, he only looks good in the heat of battle when the team is doing well against weaker opposition ie when Sholl has time and space to show his (admittedly) many skills.
As you pointed out he's soft, does not win the hardball contest in general play and gets ragdolled easily because he's built like a scrawny pre-pubic boy and is contact averse.

Career-wise, he averages 1.34 tackles and 0.64 1%ers/ game. That's just not good enough.

Outside, under no pressure, in time and space, he's good.
Can anyone imagine him having game impact in the furnace of a Final (if we ever make another one)?
I can't see it.

He needs to lock himself for the next 3 years in a gym and take up boxing or something. But we've been saying that since he was drafted so who knows.

Yep in finals-like pressure, I'd expect him to fold like a wet noodle.

But if he can stay on the outside and utilize that kick, and that's a big if, then he can be a weapon.

It comes down to whether you think his benefits outweigh the negatives, and given the fact that right now we're lacking classy ball users that don't spray it oof when there is a hint of pressure, I'm leaning towards him being a benefit.

This could change though. Like I said, I was a hater and I could definitely go back to being one.

 

[CrowBloke]

God I wish Nicks could have said this about TO Curtin

... and McAsey, Berry, Schoenberg, Pedlar, Cook etc ...

 

[DangerSloane]

Play Himmelberg as ruck.
At least he is useful once the ball hits the ground.

The ruck as a position is so overrated.
The best rucks are the best ones around the ground.

 

[CrowBloke]

Falling behind by 5 goals in the first half of a game really isn't a huge margin these days, happens to a lot of teams.

Maybe, but the vast majority of them lose.
"The authors found that 93.1 per cent of the time, if a team leads by 30 points, it wins the match."
(Fox Sports stats)
Even a 3 goal lead is significant:
"on average, a team wins nearly 90% of the time if it’s up by three goals at three-quarter time. A three-goal break at half-time results in a win 85% of the time, while teams go on to win 75% of the time if they are up by three goals at the first break." (The Arc)

Starting well is very, very important.

Sydney fell behind by 4 goals early and then killed Carlton.

4 goals is not 5 goals.
Edit: and Sydney have a high-level AFL Coach!

 

[CrowBloke]

Play Himmelberg as ruck.
At least he is useful once the ball hits the ground.

The ruck as a position is so overrated.
The best rucks are the best ones around the ground.

I agree re: the best rucks, but this week EH is injured (cheekbone).

 

[DangerSloane]

I agree re: the best rucks, but this week EH is injured (cheekbone).

Ah damn.
Well hell bring in Burgess.
ROB has the most hit outs in the AFL but we don't dominate out of the middle. May as well lose the ruck tap and then have someone that can compete in the air and on the ground.

 

[CrowBloke]

Food for thought, looking ahead.

From TheMongrelPunt, giving credit where due:
"... [kudos] should go to the [Sydney] list manager for picking up so many players who are elite by hand and foot. The only thing stopping this team winning the flag at this stage might be injuries.".

Reid & Ogilvie, please note: it did not say "... for picking up so many players who are big-effort, scrappy triers", or
"... for picking up so many players who lack composure", or
"... for picking up so many players who fold under pressure".

 

[CrowBloke]

The fact we now have two forced changes means we're probably very little chance of making an unforced one.

ftfy

 

[Samcro24]

Food for thought, looking ahead.

From TheMongrelPunt, giving credit where due:
"... [kudos] should go to the [Sydney] list manager for picking up so many players who are elite by hand and foot. The only thing stopping this team winning the flag at this stage might be injuries.".

Reid & Ogilvie, please note: it did not say "... for picking up so many players who are big-effort, scrappy triers", or
"... for picking up so many players who lack composure", or
"... for picking up so many players who fold under pressure".

Yes but are they from good families

 

[Coopers]

Maybe, but the vast majority of them lose.
"The authors found that 93.1 per cent of the time, if a team leads by 30 points, it wins the match."
(Fox Sports stats)
Even a 3 goal lead is significant:
"on average, a team wins nearly 90% of the time if it’s up by three goals at three-quarter time. A three-goal break at half-time results in a win 85% of the time, while teams go on to win 75% of the time if they are up by three goals at the first break." (The Arc)

Starting well is very, very important.

4 goals is not 5 goals.
Edit: and Sydney have a high-level AFL Coach!

Those are really interesting stats.

Do they say at what point in time during the match you need to be in the lead by 30 points, or is it just "once a team gets to a 30 pt lead they are at that chance to win".

 

[CrowBloke]

Those are really interesting stats.

Do they say at what point in time during the match you need to be in the lead by 30 points, or is it just "once a team gets to a 30 pt lead they are at that chance to win".

Unspecified. No distinction was made as far as I can see.
Sources:

Ten Things I Learnt After Round Ten - The Mongrel Punt

Just what has Gab Rossi discovered this week in AFL footy? Here are the ten things he learnt from Round Ten

themongrelpunt.com

When should footy fans lose hope?

When is a game truly lost, or won? What’s a safe margin at three-quarter time, or half time?

thearcfooty.com

 

[GreyCrow]

Food for thought, looking ahead.

From TheMongrelPunt, giving credit where due:
"... [kudos] should go to the [Sydney] list manager for picking up so many players who are elite by hand and foot. The only thing stopping this team winning the flag at this stage might be injuries.".

Reid & Ogilvie, please note: it did not say "... for picking up so many players who are big-effort, scrappy triers", or
"... for picking up so many players who lack composure", or
"... for picking up so many players who fold under pressure".

Someone mentioned what recruiters look for

In the US - mostly baseball - they look for 5 attributes and grade them to a scale

In baseball, you may have heard the term “five-tool player” used to describe the rare player that excels at all five of the major physical tools (Speed, Throwing, Fielding, Hitting for Average, and Hitting for Power).

If they find one with all 5 rated high they go high

I would hope there is a similar standard applied here

Disposal efficiency by both sides - real efficiency not the CD made up stuff
Speed
Vision /Thinking - do they make good choices
Tackling - are they good doing them and good getting out of them
Competitiveness
Injury management - this is an ambiguous one but I think to the difference between a McIntosh and a McAdam

I randomly thought of Keays and thought he falls below average for 2 sidedness and vision/ thinking and average to above for the rest - but the 2 below average is what kills teams

Or you make them leaders