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Preview R12: Changes vs. Sydney Swans

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Just so people are clear, I’m not against Edwards coming into the team when there’s an opportunity for him to have a block of games. I’d just hate to see us bring him for one game and then send him straight back to the SANFL when Laird comes back. Give the lad some confidence when he does come in knowing he’ll have a few games to find his feet before they even think of omitting him.
You understand that he can’t get a block of games without being selected for one game first right?
 
Look at all the data you want.

Nicks has a 37.6% winning record after 117 matches, yet he coaches, selects and speaks with completely unwarranted arrogance and stubbornness.
To be successful, need to be able to win against the best teams with good coaches.

Unfortunately Nicks has shown he doesn't have the strategic mind. Need more than plan A on match day to win finals.
 
West Coast have played 11 teams this year, we kept them to their 4th lowest score. And they have played 3 finals teams from last year.

Defensively we are better and at the end of the day whilst you can have an all out attacking forward line, defence wins flags. You need to get the balance right.

Can Nicks do that? Jury is out on that one but history isn’t good. He may well succeed this year due to the players he has.
 

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Ned Long at Collingwood Exhibit A
Ned Long isn’t a kid though so not a good example… he was first drafted by Hawthorn in 2021 and picked up by the pies in the mid season draft last year. Hawthorn only played him in the final round of 22 and the last 7 rounds of 23 before delisting him.
 
Has anyone done an analysis on how other clubs treat their draftees? How many games they typically get? And i don’t mean the father/son picks like Levi Ashcroft or Daicos boys. Are we really that bad at dealing with them?
Not a very thorough analysis, but so far this year (end of round 11), there have been 58 debutants. So average of 3.2 per club. Good Coast and Hawks haven’t had any debuts (changing this week for Suns). Then Adelaide, Collingwood and Geelong only 1 player.

Last year 76 debutants. We have debuts to 5, which was 6th most (behind Collingwood, North, Richmond, Saints, Eagles).
 
TBH, im not really complaining this week. I have Draper, Curtin and Pedlar in the side who are my 3 favourite young players on the list.

I would love to see more, but sitting 4th at the bye, am I surprised we capped it at that many young players? Absolutely not.
 
Smith played pretty well against Carlton.
Still has his speed, power and kicking.

I'd like to see Edwards get a game but that's probably at the expense of a resting midfielder.
 
Not a very thorough analysis, but so far this year (end of round 11), there have been 58 debutants. So average of 3.2 per club. Good Coast and Hawks haven’t had any debuts (changing this week for Suns). Then Adelaide, Collingwood and Geelong only 1 player.

Last year 76 debutants. We have debuts to 5, which was 6th most (behind Collingwood, North, Richmond, Saints, Eagles).
Yeah and injuries at those clubs like Essendon haven't played a part?

We've had a pretty good run re injuries this far.

Butts has been the pretty obvious replacement for Murray etc.
 
Brodie, take the pressure down. If you retire, with any luck it'll cause a chain reaction.

It will be a touch of paradise when you do.
you, are the voice, Pugsley !!
 
Not a very thorough analysis, but so far this year (end of round 11), there have been 58 debutants. So average of 3.2 per club. Good Coast and Hawks haven’t had any debuts (changing this week for Suns). Then Adelaide, Collingwood and Geelong only 1 player.

Last year 76 debutants. We have debuts to 5, which was 6th most (behind Collingwood, North, Richmond, Saints, Eagles).

Look at the link I posted last page. It's not just whether we give them games, it's whether we give them minutes. And when you look at it, we're always bad in their rookie year. Even in the year many posters were trying to use as an example we're different with Rash and Soligo.

It's not just that we're reluctant to play them: when we do, we don't trust them with roles of any significance (which they were drafted to play), and push them into fringe positions with extremely limited minutes. They get enough games with their hands tied behind their backs for the club backers to claim they've not seized their opportunities, then they get relegated.

This is not how other teams develop their potential elites, they all get more minutes. And those other teams have actually produced elite players in the last 20 years, so maybe they'd know.
 

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So Nankervis was dropped for form

Since then he sat out for a week as non-playing emergency and this week we have an SANFL bye.

Could we not have sat someone else out last week? Murph?
 
Has anyone done an analysis on how other clubs treat their draftees? How many games they typically get? And i don’t mean the father/son picks like Levi Ashcroft or Daicos boys. Are we really that bad at dealing with them?

That's a very general type question. We have a specific example where a spot has opened up to cover Laird and instead of using a kid who did ok last year in Bond or debuting a young fella that is performing really well in the SANFL or another kid who played most of last year that has had to try and become a wingman and is now dropped, we've returned to a guy that is in his last year and does nothing for our future. But, this isn't even the worst of it. Laird said earlier during the week that it's the best he's pulled up in weeks. The Sydney game away is going to be a lot harder to win than Eagles at home. If Laird was on the edge of needing a rest, then why wouldn't that have happened last round where the likelihood of us losing was basically zero? Coaches need to keep players focused on 'one week at a time', but they should be looking further ahead themselves.
 
Look at the link I posted last page. It's not just whether we give them games, it's whether we give them minutes. And when you look at it, we're always bad in their rookie year. Even in the year many posters were trying to use as an example we're different with Rash and Soligo.

It's not just that we're reluctant to play them: when we do, we don't trust them with roles of any significance (which they were drafted to play), and push them into fringe positions with extremely limited minutes. They get enough games with their hands tied behind their backs for the club backers to claim they've not seized their opportunities, then they get relegated.

This is not how other teams develop their potential elites, they all get more minutes. And those other teams have actually produced elite players in the last 20 years, so maybe they'd know.

It's pretty damning looking through the TOG rankings for our draftees in their first year

Some anchor points for other highly rated players

Nick Daicos - 2051
Harry Sheezel - 1954
Sam Walsh - 1847
Connor Rozee - 1804
Mattaes Phillipou - 1799
Cam Rayner - 1709
Nick Blakey - 1657
Bailey Smith - 1693
Harley Reid - 1631
Jack Lukosius - 1609
Adam Cerra - 1594
Josh Gibcus - 1505
Aaron Naughton - 1502
Caleb Windsor - 1502
Tarryn Thomas - 1459
Oliver Hollands - 1430
Zak Butters - 1427
Nick Watson - 1325
Jason Horne-Francis - 1297
Bailey Humphrey - 1285
Colby McKercher - 1218
Andrew Brayshaw - 1134
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 1126
Finn O'Sullivan - 787 (half season)
Sam Lalor - 801 (half season)
Levi Ashcroft - 924 (half season)

And then us

Sid Draper - 340 (half a season so far)
Dan Curtin - 323
Max Michalanney - 1823
Josh Rachele - 1040
Jake Soligo - 1195
Riley Thilthorpe - 1145
Luke Pedlar - 150
Brayden Cook - 196
Sam Berry - 1219
Fischer McAsey - 855
Harry Schoenberg - 609
Josh Worrell - 0
Chayce Jones - 545
Ned McHenry - 0
Darcy Fogarty - 802
Jordan Gallucci - 80
Wayne Milera - 567
Tom Doedee - 0
Jake Lever - 1083
Matt Crouch - 419
Charlie Cameron - 547
Brad Crouch - 1137
Brodie Smith - 926
Daniel Talia - 0
Jack Gunston - 123

That's as far back as the stats go. As far as I can tell since 2010 we have given ONE draftee a high level of TOG in their first year, that player being Michalanney. Maybe six to eight others have gotten middling time in 15 years.
 

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Has anyone done an analysis on how other clubs treat their draftees? How many games they typically get? And i don’t mean the father/son picks like Levi Ashcroft or Daicos boys. Are we really that bad at dealing with them?

Looking at this year's draftees, Draper is right at the bottom for %TOG compared to others his age... several other highly rated talents from the 2024 draft have somehow managed 70% to 80% gametime across 10+ games without melting or exploding into a ball of fire.... (our Sid can't possibly hack it though according to Nixxy:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:)



1748566140574.png
 
It is always funny reading Facebook or Instagram and seeing completely unhinged opinions about players, opinions that obviously haven't been updated in several years.

Like people watch Matt Crouch in 2017 and think that is what he brings now. People that watched Smith several years ago and still think he is the best kick ever.

The same people that watched David Mackay in 2009 and never updated their opinion.

These same people also seem to over rate players at the club, every player is a champion or a legend, despite never actually achieving anything of note. Players elevated in status due to their tenure, in their eyes even Lachlan Murphy is a club great.
 
It's pretty damning looking through the TOG rankings for our draftees in their first year

Some anchor points for other highly rated players

Nick Daicos - 2051
Harry Sheezel - 1954
Sam Walsh - 1847
Connor Rozee - 1804
Mattaes Phillipou - 1799
Cam Rayner - 1709
Nick Blakey - 1657
Bailey Smith - 1693
Harley Reid - 1631
Jack Lukosius - 1609
Adam Cerra - 1594
Josh Gibcus - 1505
Aaron Naughton - 1502
Caleb Windsor - 1502
Tarryn Thomas - 1459
Oliver Hollands - 1430
Zak Butters - 1427
Nick Watson - 1325
Jason Horne-Francis - 1297
Bailey Humphrey - 1285
Colby McKercher - 1218
Andrew Brayshaw - 1134
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 1126
Finn O'Sullivan - 787 (half season)
Sam Lalor - 801 (half season)
Levi Ashcroft - 924 (half season)

And then us

Sid Draper - 340 (half a season so far)
Dan Curtin - 323
Max Michalanney - 1823
Josh Rachele - 1040
Jake Soligo - 1195
Riley Thilthorpe - 1145
Luke Pedlar - 150
Brayden Cook - 196
Sam Berry - 1219
Fischer McAsey - 855
Harry Schoenberg - 609
Josh Worrell - 0
Chayce Jones - 545
Ned McHenry - 0
Darcy Fogarty - 802
Jordan Gallucci - 80
Wayne Milera - 567
Tom Doedee - 0
Jake Lever - 1083
Matt Crouch - 419
Charlie Cameron - 547
Brad Crouch - 1137
Brodie Smith - 926
Daniel Talia - 0
Jack Gunston - 123

That's as far back as the stats go. As far as I can tell since 2010 we have given ONE draftee a high level of TOG in their first year, that player being Michalanney. Maybe six to eight others have gotten middling time in 15 years.

And Max conveniently played the sort of position we'd like to put a young player into.
 
It's pretty damning looking through the TOG rankings for our draftees in their first year

Some anchor points for other highly rated players

Nick Daicos - 2051
Harry Sheezel - 1954
Sam Walsh - 1847
Connor Rozee - 1804
Mattaes Phillipou - 1799
Cam Rayner - 1709
Nick Blakey - 1657
Bailey Smith - 1693
Harley Reid - 1631
Jack Lukosius - 1609
Adam Cerra - 1594
Josh Gibcus - 1505
Aaron Naughton - 1502
Caleb Windsor - 1502
Tarryn Thomas - 1459
Oliver Hollands - 1430
Zak Butters - 1427
Nick Watson - 1325
Jason Horne-Francis - 1297
Bailey Humphrey - 1285
Colby McKercher - 1218
Andrew Brayshaw - 1134
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 1126
Finn O'Sullivan - 787 (half season)
Sam Lalor - 801 (half season)
Levi Ashcroft - 924 (half season)

And then us

Sid Draper - 340 (half a season so far)
Dan Curtin - 323
Max Michalanney - 1823
Josh Rachele - 1040
Jake Soligo - 1195
Riley Thilthorpe - 1145
Luke Pedlar - 150
Brayden Cook - 196
Sam Berry - 1219
Fischer McAsey - 855
Harry Schoenberg - 609
Josh Worrell - 0
Chayce Jones - 545
Ned McHenry - 0
Darcy Fogarty - 802
Jordan Gallucci - 80
Wayne Milera - 567
Tom Doedee - 0
Jake Lever - 1083
Matt Crouch - 419
Charlie Cameron - 547
Brad Crouch - 1137
Brodie Smith - 926
Daniel Talia - 0
Jack Gunston - 123

That's as far back as the stats go. As far as I can tell since 2010 we have given ONE draftee a high level of TOG in their first year, that player being Michalanney. Maybe six to eight others have gotten middling time in 15 years.

Might also be interesting to compare our rebuild to a similar rebuild across a similar time, Hawthorn. This is all of their top picks plus a few others that played early, similar to the Adelaide list

Nick Watson - 1325
Will McCabe - 0
Calsher Dear - 1152
Cam McKenzie - 890
Josh Weddle - 1414
Josh Ward - 1072
Sam Butler - 634
Connor Macdonald - 1414
Denver Grainger-Barras - 376
Jai Newcombe - 394 (the same year as being taken in the MSD)
Tyler Brockman - 748
Will Day - 910
Finn Maginness - 77
(Prior to Will Day Hawthorn did not take a top pick for many years)
 
The matchups we've had so far this year are the same results as last year, the fixture is just in a different order.

Same result in terms of W or L, but I reckon overall the wins have been improved upon. That said, Saints and Bombers were both missing 6+ best 22 and we had zero injuries. Roos a lesser result, especially given we beat them by more last year away than at home this year. Giants break even. Blues a bigger win, but they are putrid at AO, so that's probably overstated a bit. And the Eagles a lesser margin than last year. So, you're probably right, the obvious stronger wins had a vast injury discrepancy or includes a team with horrific history at Adelaide Oval.

1748567584531.png
 

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Preview R12: Changes vs. Sydney Swans

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