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Preview R12: Changes vs. Sydney Swans

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George CantStandYa said:
But do you know how Nicks works? He’s just told you in his presser if you are unsure.

It’s rd 11, he’s not even an emergency.

He’s behind Milera, Laird, Smith, Nank, Bond. That’s a lot of players to miss to get his opportunity and run of games you talk about.
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He’s also effectively said that form doesn’t really matter anymore. It’s all about continuity. What an idiot
 

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Drugs Are Bad Mackay? said:
Do posters agree that if we beat Sydney away then we have definitively improved?

And if we lose to them we haven't?

In essence the future of mankind depends on the outcome of this game
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It's a good indicator.

The only games so far we have won that we would have usually lost are Essendon away & GWS at home.

We badly failed with Freo away when they were struggling & no improvement against a weakened Pies away & Cats at home.
 
Southerntakeover said:
How can it be churlish to compare the results to the equivalent games last year?
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Because my subjective judgement is the right one and everyone else is wrong.

In seriousness it's a bit like the Neal-Bullen/Murphy statistics comparison in the Neal-Bullen test. Statistically similar, but the eye test feels better.

I accept I may end up completely wrong about this, but the gut/vibes of it all feel better.
 
Drakescoffeecake said:
When he's speaking next I wish someone could ask what his plans are if we start getting a run of injuries. Does he feel we have enough exposed depth that can come in straight away if we got 4-6 quick injuries over a couple of weeks?
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Great question!

He has taken the 1 week at a time too seriously... & nfi about managing & developing squad depth.
 
Drakescoffeecake said:
When he's speaking next I wish someone could ask what his plans are if we start getting a run of injuries. Does he feel we have enough exposed depth that can come in straight away if we got 4-6 quick injuries over a couple of weeks?
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Next man in, even though they haven’t played this year.
 
jo172 said:
Because my subjective judgement is the right one and everyone else is wrong.

In seriousness it's a bit like the Neal-Bullen/Murphy statistics comparison in the Neal-Bullen test. Statistically similar, but the eye test feels better.

I accept I may end up completely wrong about this, but the gut/vibes of it all feel better.
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After a number of Murphy years, it’s good to have a Neal Bullen year, hopefully next year it’s a Dawson year.
 
1970crow said:
The importance of this week makes it even worse. Laird didn't all of a sudden become sore, in fact, he said on radio that he pulled up less sore this week than any of the past few. If he was nearing needing a rest, surely it's been on the table for a couple of weeks at least, it wouldn't just pop up out of nowhere. So why wouldn't he have rested in a home game against the current spoon favourite where there's a little more luxury available to bring in a younger player. Is our selection group not capable of considering more than half a week in advance?
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When Laird should have been rested is a whole other conversation. I agree with you fwiw - last week would have been a great opportunity to do so, and bring Edwards in then. But that's not the conversation. With the decision - right or wrong - to rest Laird this week now made, the question is whether the club should use it as a development opportunity, or bring in a like for like (in terms of experience, known quantity etc..). As mentioned, I'm OK with either (in the context of this game)
 

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1970crow said:
"I suspect one of the main decisions behoind Brodie Smith not playing as many games this year compared to last is that they are trying to maximise the opportunities for young players" Well that's just absolute garbage, which younger players have been prioritised ahead of Brodie when an opportunity has presented itself? Our back 7 are Murray/Butts, Keane, Worrell, Laird, Milera, Michaelanny and Hinge. Only Max is a younger player and he doesn't play in favour of Brodie for any other reason than he's much better and is needed to actually defend an opposition player. When an opportunity has arisen for a younger player, ie Laird rested or Hinge suspended, we've played Brodie. It's the exact opposite of the sentence of yours that I bolded. I'm honestly not sure how you could have possibly formed that view.
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It's not the exact opposite at all. It would be the exact opposite if Brodie was brought in, in addition to the likes of Laird and Hinge. But he's not - he's being used solely as a like for like senior replacement this year (first for Hinge, now for Laird). The primary reason he's not played more games this year - in spite of his good form in the SANFL and in the one AFL game he had - is because of team balance.

In terms of who they've prioritised ahead of him, it doesn't have to be a direct, positional like for like. Again, it's about team balance and age / experience profile of him in the side, vs when he's not. For example, if he were to be given games based on his current form, while Laird is still playing, then there's every chance they revert Laird back into the midfield, dislodging one of the young developing mids in his place. The very reason Laird can go back and free up a midfield spot this year is because Brodie is not getting prioritised in a backline role.

Same deal with the wing. In 2023 Smithers played plenty of footy on the wing - and did it well. He could just as easily come in and play a role for us there at the moment, but they are priortising other young players like Dan Curtain and his development.

They are very clearly working towards a certain ratio of age and experience that they are trying to maintain in the context of an otherwise young team that is still learning it's craft.
 
Southerntakeover I know you were interested in this a couple of weeks ago. My phone couldn’t find your post, so I’m dropping it in here. Just came on TV, so took a photo. Worth considering that this is the targets for our last 5 games, not sure if it includes Tex’s rest week, but it definitely includes a period where Tex’s body was making it harder and harder to beat his opponent.

IMG_4709.jpeg
 

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George CantStandYa said:
Sydney are missing something like 9 first choice players, if we don’t beat them it would be shocking.

A win means nothing. Beat Brisbane or Hawks and then we can say there’s legitimate improvement
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We drew with Brisbane last year and beat them the year before, so you could easily discount beating Brisbane too, at least by the 'it's the results compared to last year that matters' metric. Beating Sydney is an improvement over last year's results of course, but they have injuries, so there's that. We also beat Hawthorn in Tasmania last time we played them there, and after the bye there's Richmond and Melbourne who are outside the 8, plus the Melbourne game is at home. We could potentially be 12-4 without any evidence of legitimate improvement heading into the Dogs game! Which we also won last year...
 
pjcrows said:
Look at all the data you want.

Nicks has a 37.6% winning record after 117 matches, yet he coaches, selects and speaks with completely unwarranted arrogance and stubbornness.
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Leeway need to be given to that record given it was the biggest list turnover in our history during the pandemic and he had to work with the 2018 and 2019 bust drafts but the last few years he has done a lot of rookie stuff up when he finally had the list to perform.
 
ABAB said:
Leeway need to be given to that record given it was the biggest list turnover in our history during the pandemic and he had to work with the 2018 and 2019 bust drafts but the last few years he has done a lot of rookie stuff up when he finally had the list to perform.
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I'd give him 1 or 2 seasons leeway. To get first rounders like Mcasey, Jones and Mchenry makes things really tough. No excuses now though.
 
Bond 72% disposal efficiency. 12 disposals a game. 2 rebound 50s. 0 inside 50s. 3 marks. 185cm.

Edwards 90% disposal efficiency. 21 disposals a game. 4 rebound 50s. 3 inside 50s. 7 marks. 191cm.
 

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Preview R12: Changes vs. Sydney Swans

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