ADELAIDE CROWS VS. COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES
ROUND 12
SATURDAY 05/06/2021, 4:35PM AEDT
ADELAIDE OVAL, ADELAIDE
ROUND 12
SATURDAY 05/06/2021, 4:35PM AEDT
ADELAIDE OVAL, ADELAIDE
Welcome to Round 12. The guaranteed blockbuster where the 16th-placed Dirty FIFO Magpies are taking on the 15th-placed Adelaide Crows.
The "Lose a Grand Final and bottom out" cup.
Real match-of-the-round type stuff.
And to those South Australians fortunate enough to be heading to witness this fine showcase of AFL football at the Adelaide Oval, you've been warned by the SA CHO. You've got to learn the five d's of
However, given that we're averaging under 12 goals a game this season, the only 'D' any of us will need is a drink.
HISTORY:
Last Time They Met
Round 11, 2020: Adelaide 5.8 (38) def. by Collingwood 10.2 (62) at the Adelaide Oval in front of a crowd of 8,577.
For the Crows, Rory Laird announced himself to the football world in a new-look midfield role with 37 disposals and 10 clearances in a BOG performance. Tyson Stengle and Elliott Himmelberg both kicked 2 goals and Shane McAdam kicked their only other major.
For the Pies, Taylor Adams led the way with 27 disposals and 10 clearances. Goals came from Darcy Cameron, Trey Ruscoe and Jaidyn Stephenson (2 each) whilst Josh Daicos, Josh Thomas, Brody Mihocek and Lyden Dunn all kicked one each.
Head-to-Head
Collingwood and Adelaide have faced off a total of 44 times:
Collingwood 28 wins
Adelaide 15 wins
1 Draw
THE MATCH:
Teams
Where the game
Admittedly I haven't seen a whole heap of Adelaide's games this year, but unfortunately I have seen all of ours. So that's where I'll start, and that's where I'll finish.
The last two weeks we have seen Collingwood put even more emphasis on ball retention against Port Adelaide and Geelong. We've become even more accustomed to short, safe kicks in the back half, which has recently evolved ever-so-slightly to adopt a Malthouse-style of hugging the boundary instead of risking a center-corridor turnover. And whilst this means we're turning the ball over in a safer spot and making it harder for the opposition to score, it's making it equally as hard for us to score.
Both Port Adelaide and Geelong were both far too experienced, skillful and patient to lose to this style, despite the eventual low margin of both games. On the other hand the younger, less-experienced Adelaide side may find themselves drifting away from their attacking gameplan if starved of the football and forced into playing our dull game of keepings off.
So with that in mind, we must mentally prepare ourselves for another 2-hour-long famine.
Jamie Elliott returns to the line-up for the first time since injury and should play solely as a forward without being thrust into unnecessary midfield minutes. I had desperately been hoping to see the combination of Elliott and Mccreery for the first time, but as such we'll have to wait at least one more week.
Elliott is essentially replacing Callum Brown which, dare I say it... no... enough said.
On the flipside, the return of both Elliott and Thomas will likely solidify De Goey into playing more midfield minutes. This has been a bit of a contentious topic in weeks and seasons gone by, but the coaching group appeared to find something resembling some sort of balance with De Goey's mid/forward mix against Geelong. I suspect (hope) De Goey will attempt to continue a center-square start with a prompt push to the forward line, ala Dustin Martin. This may leave a Crows midfielder to likewise exploit us the other way, but it's a roll of the dice worth taking.
Brodie Grundy will be missing for the first time since he buried Ben Brown's head into the Docklands turf in Round 20, 2017. This ends his 81-game consecutive playing streak which was the fourth most of current players in the AFL (behind Crisp, AMT and Oliver).
Grundy's absence will definitely be felt heavily - particularly around the ground - but with extra responsibility on Darcy Cameron and Max Lynch comes a sense of unpredictability. This unpredicability could be our making as much as it could be our undoing. Whilst I can envisage the likes of Crisp and De Goey streaming through the center circle and taking a one-touch clearance (I know, stay with me), ROB is a very strong opponent and will have us playing very accountable at stoppages all evening.
Despite Crisp getting more and more midfield time, we've come to know what to expect from our back half with the stability in selection of Moore, Roughead, Maynard, Noble and Quaynor. With Chris Mayne being rested, this is the week I would put Pendlebury back to the half-back flank in his absence.
Scott Pendlebury hasn't attended many (any?) center-square bounces over the past two weeks, instead playing predominantly in the forward half. It remains to be seen whether this is solely due to a hand injury or whether it's succession planning (boy, don't we love a succession plan), but his football IQ would be invaluable coming out of the D50.
And with that, the most intriguing part of the game is the midfield mix. As mentioned, De Goey needs to start in the middle and thrust forward. Crisp and Daicos, as it stands, need to be the other two first-choice mids. Subject to the starting sub, we must see a very even rotational split between Rantall, Bianco and Sier. I would nearly consider giving Rantall an educational job to run with Rory Sloane, depending how the game is panning out.
Key Match-Ups
Roughead to take Walker.
Moore to take Thilthorpe and look to exploit him on the rebound.
Maynard to take Fogarty.
Forecast
Maximum 17 degrees
Mostly Cloudy
40% chance of rain (1-5mm)
Very low chance of raining goals
19km/h NW wind at 3pm
Odds
Adelaide $1.49 vs $2.63 Collingwood*
* Odds correct at 9:00am, 04/06/2021
Tip
Take a deep breath. Lower your expectations.
That said, Pies by 2 goals in another low-scoring snorefest.
So happy that Jamie is back.
