Preview R14: Changes vs. Hawthorn Hawks

[1970crow]

And stopped Rayner who was murdering us…

You mean the Cam Rayner that had 7 possessions and 2 scoring shots in the first, 3 and 1 in the second and 2 and 0 in the 3rd. The guy that was deteriorating as the game wore on until fresh and impactful Smith turned up to blanket him to only 5 snd 1. So pre-Smith he’s averaged 4 possessions and 1 scoring shot per quarter. And Smith has impacted by him increasing his average by 1 possession.

Ok, I’m wrong, I hadn’t realised he’d blanketed Rayner to only a 25% increase on his first 3 quarters or 250% on the previous quarter.

Lucky he was fresh is all I’ve got to say. At least got him back to the goal square in good time.

 

[1970crow]

Probably but who plays as the small forward ??

Does it matter? Pedlar hardly played it anyway. If it’s about this week’s 4 points, might as well play Murphy.

 

[SellarStardom]

Option 1 - bring in Edwards on a wing or HB

Option 2 - bring in Dowling to wing

Option 3 - bring Draper into the middle for a full game.

Keep Smith as sub
If Option 1 or 2 applied, move Cumming or Hinge into midfield rotation as we need some difference as they are both good in tight

 

[1970crow]

When you take into account what he did the previous week and playing his role in the game last night, I don't see why he'd go?

Was this play of his that stood out for me. Along with the tackle on the wing on Rayner that let us go into our 50 once more.

View attachment 2336111

He did nothing at all last night coming on to impact in a hot game. Last week he rolled in when the game was already won easily against a side politely described as a “bit of a rabble”.

If it comes to it in finals, he’s there, we know what he brings. But in the meantime, either Nank or Edwards would have been able to accumulate 1 possession and get to the square to kick long and right after a point or out on the full.

 

[crows dude]

wasn’t Murray just 1 week on Tuesday. So he’s back in surely.

In
Murray
Out
Butts unlucky

In
Dowling/Draper
Out
Peatling susp

 

[MRB37]

I'd hazard a guess and say

OUT: Peatling
IN: Dowling

The issue is we've primarily played Dowling on the wing/HF in the AFL, so it probably means we'd either be sticking with Dawson, Soligo, Rankine and Berry as our primary mids or rotating Rachele in a bit more and letting Dowling work up there.

Pedlar persist, we need to know for sure if he's got it or not (same with Berry) and I thought last night would have been a good opportunity to give him a bit of a run in the midfield to see if his grunt and power would be useful.

 

[Ham]

Hopefully we took notes of Brisbane's strategy against Hawthorn in countering their free kick game

 

[TRP1996]

When you take into account what he did the previous week and playing his role in the game last night, I don't see why he'd go?

Was this play of his that stood out for me. Along with the tackle on the wing on Rayner that let us go into our 50 once more.

View attachment 2336111

Surely a 250-gamer coming on in the last with fresh legs managing a regulation spoil and tackle should be the bare minimum, not something that "stood out"?

 

[MsTopG]

wasn’t Murray just 1 week on Tuesday. So he’s back in surely.

In
Murray
Out
Butts unlucky

In
Dowling/Draper
Out
Peatling susp

I would give Muzz a game or two in the sanfl first.

 

[huludicidal]

Good god, what game did you watch? Hinge had 8 tackles last night. Threw himself around will nilly. He was far from our worst last night.

I didn’t say Hinge didn’t try and I also didn’t say he was “our worst” (I don’t think any of our 6 worst players last night were defenders, I just think Hinge stands out as being out of form at present in a strong defensive unit), I would never question Hinge’s effort. His poor decision making and errors were a problem on a number of occasions though, and when you’re playing a relatively creative role out of defence, that’s an issue.

Soligo had 13 tackles, tried really hard, and was shithouse. Tackle count and effort are often not great measures of how well someone is playing.

All I’m saying is that Smith was pretty unlucky to be relegated to the sub role last night after a strong showing against the Swans (let’s be serious, Smith outplayed Hinge in that game), so it’s ultra-competitive back there, and a guy like Hinge needs to lift to keep the wolves at bay.

I’m not dropping him personally. I just think Milera and Laird cop a lot from many crows supporters, and if you look at the body of work this season, they’re at least matching, if not outperforming, Hinge.

 

[huludicidal]

He will play for Tasmania after they pick him up as a delisted free agent

There is no way they’d even have the slightest bit of interest in Chayce. He’s already played his last AFL game.

 

[Scorpus]

There is no way they’d even have the slightest bit of interest in Chayce. He’s already played his last AFL game.

Nah they'll be looking for experienced state league players to fill out the bottom 5 spots on their list

He's one of the most experienced current AFL players from Tasmania and he won't be too old.

 

[huludicidal]

Nah they'll be looking for experienced state league players to fill out the bottom 5 spots on their list

He's one of the most experienced current AFL players from Tasmania and he won't be too old.

Experience is great for an expansion club and yes they’ll want and need that.

They’ll also want to balance that with guys who can actually contribute at the level, and if they have competent recruiting staff, they’ll know that ain’t 2027 Chayce. He will contribute about as much (and be in as much demand) as 2025 McHenry. It’s over. And I’d have money on it.

 

[Scorpus]

Experience is great for an expansion club and yes they’ll want and need that.

They’ll also want to balance that with guys who can actually contribute at the level, and if they have competent recruiting staff, they’ll know that ain’t 2027 Chayce. He will contribute about as much (and be in as much demand) as 2025 McHenry. It’s over. And I’d have money on it.

I'm only saying it because he's Tasmanian and there's no Tassie talent. They will want locals on the list and Tassie has produced almost 0 good players in the last 10 years

If he was Victorian there is no chance whatsoever he goes there

 

[huludicidal]

I'm only saying it because he's Tasmanian and there's no Tassie talent. They will want locals on the list and Tassie has produced almost 0 good players in the last 10 years

If he was Victorian there is no chance whatsoever he goes there

Fully aware of the Tassie link. Chayce won’t be on a AFL list anymore by October 2026 when we quietly delist him at the conclusion of the “generous” contract he was gifted. The mental side of things seems to have genuinely gotten the better of him.

 

[Redleg Crow]

I guess Peatling will get a week. Sigh.

Edwards needs a go. Love Draper but he can go show something in SANFL

 

[spenze]

Looking at the Peatling incident again, it shouldn't really get a week - but it probably will. Neal tried to stand up in the tackle and peatling needed to put more force into it to get him down.

Neale throws his head into the ground every time he gets tackled. If the Crows want Peatling off, show at least a half dozen examples of it this season and then state that Brisbane know he does it, which is why he wasn't taken off the ground for a HIA

 

[huludicidal]

Summary of where the starting 22 is at and who should be under the most selection heat / who should be breaking into the side for the remainder of the season:


* Tex quite simply should never play another game IN THE WET. Play him when it’s dry. If every game is dry, give him a week off against speedy teams and/or on 6 day breaks. Just do not play him in the wet again. EVER.

* When it’s wet and/or when Tex is being rested, Billy Dowling is the most logical replacement for mine, and it’s strange to me that he hasn’t yet played in 2025. Adds flexibility to the lineup, as he can genuinely play a forward half role, but can also switch with someone like Curtin to roll onto a wing, or with someone like Rankine to go through the middle of the ground. Z Taylor is the other who could get a similar gig here.

* The hope would be that Draper can put together a body of work in the next 2-3 weeks in the SANFL and then come back into the AFL side. Sam Berry will be looking over his shoulder here. Draper COULD replace Peatling sooner than that against Hawthorn due to suspension, but I dunno, it just feels a bit too yo-yoish.

* I mentioned Dowling and Taylor as potential Tex replacements in the wet or on short breaks - well they are also both hunting Pedlar’s spot. I know people like the way Pedlar crashes in, but the simple facts are that he doesn’t actually get the ball much at all, he’s a poor user when he does get it, and there’s no way he’s in our best 22. His time is probably up already and he’ll be lucky to appear at all after the bye for mine.

* I know they all played against Brisbane, but there’s not enough room for all 5 of Milera, Hinge, Laird, Cumming and Smith in the 23 surely. People won’t like Hinge being included in this quintet, but that’s how I see it. I could make arguments for any of them dropping out, but one of them needs to, perhaps even as soon as next week’s game against Hawthorn.

* So who replaces the player above? Well again, I think Dowling and Taylor are in this discussion, because I don’t think it needs to be a “back half” player who comes in (this just means we wouldn’t have a back half player as sub / sub out a back half player). Nankervis is another who is well and truly in the frame here, and if everyone was in form, Nank would be an easy choice tbh. The other guy here is Charlie Edwards, who is very stiff to have not debuted yet.

* Will Matt Crouch

5

Matt Crouch

Age

30

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

28.4

5star

K

12.0

4star

HB

16.4

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

4.8

5star

D

24.9

5star

K

9.7

4star

HB

15.1

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

4.4

5star

D

21.2

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

2.0

4star

come back in once he’s back to full fitness and picked up a lazy 38 touches in 2 consecutive SANFL games? Remains to be seen, but i am very confident that our midfield would not have been as soundly beaten last night as it was if Crouch played Berry’s role. (Side note: Berry is terrible in the wet as his butterfingers are highlighted more)

* Nick Murray will come straight back in for Butts after the bye. Clear as day.

* I don’t think there’s really any way that we see any of Murphy, Schoenberg, Bond, Burgess, Gallagher, Welsh, T Murray, Jones, Ryan, McAndrew, Borlase or Sholl at AFL level for the remainder of 2025. Some of them have played their last game for us.

* Brayden Cook is still a bit of a wildcard. Hugely disappointing that he hasn’t come on yet, but the talent is enticing and perhaps he is another who could come into the frame over the final 2 months of the season if a couple of injuries strike, or if we want to maintain some aerial ability in games where Tex is not out there. I’ve said it before and and I’ll say it again - Cook is top 10 on our list in terms of raw talent. That doesn’t mean he’s in our best team (he’s blatantly not) but he’s one of the very few players on our list where I wouldn’t be surprised if a trade to another club results in him becoming a good AFL player. If I was a betting man, I’d say Cook will be lucky to even play another 10 senior games for the AFC.

 

[Footypie32]

Tex to sub. Keeps his all-important games tally ticking over but we can just have him for a qtr.

Jones can come in for Smith. One last roll of the dice and if he isnt up to it then we can save a plane ticket by leaving him there with his folks.

I'd go the opposite. Keep Smith as permanent Sub. Seems to handle it well. If we insist on dragging Tex to 300, we can sub him for Smithers most weeks. Sort of a job-share arrangement.

Give Pedlar one more chance. And give Draper a full game FFS.

 

[Magma]

wonder if we go smaller due to hawthorn's forward line, plus smith coming on for butts. murray probably gets a week in the sanfl to get a game back into his legs. could just throw the gauntlet down to the sanfl mids today and tell them to play for peatling's spot.

 

[Golumless]

Of the recruits he is the one who has impressed me the least, like others have said I think HB might be his best position.

That's not saying much, half back is the best position for anyone who plays on the wing and don't have an inside midfield game.

 

[NSolis]

He did nothing at all last night coming on to impact in a hot game. Last week he rolled in when the game was already won easily against a side politely described as a “bit of a rabble”.

If it comes to it in finals, he’s there, we know what he brings. But in the meantime, either Nank or Edwards would have been able to accumulate 1 possession and get to the square to kick long and right after a point or out on the full.

Smith wasn't sub last week. He had 6 disposals and a (very good) goal in the first quarter, which was the only part of the game where there was much competition. Similar to his other game against Carlton - big win but he was rather good in the first quarter. This was his first game as sub, and he was fine. You're massively overcooking this.

 

[Golumless]

Summary of where the starting 22 is at and who should be under the most selection heat / who should be breaking into the side for the remainder of the season:


* Tex quite simply should never play another game IN THE WET. Play him when it’s dry. If every game is dry, give him a week off against speedy teams and/or on 6 day breaks. Just do not play him in the wet again. EVER.

* When it’s wet and/or when Tex is being rested, Billy Dowling is the most logical replacement for mine, and it’s strange to me that he hasn’t yet played in 2025. Adds flexibility to the lineup, as he can genuinely play a forward half role, but can also switch with someone like Curtin to roll onto a wing, or with someone like Rankine to go through the middle of the ground. Z Taylor is the other who could get a similar gig here.

* The hope would be that Draper can put together a body of work in the next 2-3 weeks in the SANFL and then come back into the AFL side. Sam Berry will be looking over his shoulder here. Draper COULD replace Peatling sooner than that against Hawthorn due to suspension, but I dunno, it just feels a bit too yo-yoish.

* I mentioned Dowling and Taylor as potential Tex replacements in the wet or on short breaks - well they are also both hunting Pedlar’s spot. I know people like the way Pedlar crashes in, but the simple facts are that he doesn’t actually get the ball much at all, he’s a poor user when he does get it, and there’s no way he’s in our best 22. His time is probably up already and he’ll be lucky to appear at all after the bye for mine.

* I know they all played against Brisbane, but there’s not enough room for all 5 of Milera, Hinge, Laird, Cumming and Smith in the 23 surely. People won’t like Hinge being included in this quintet, but that’s how I see it. I could make arguments for any of them dropping out, but one of them needs to, perhaps even as soon as next week’s game against Hawthorn.

* So who replaces the player above? Well again, I think Dowling and Taylor are in this discussion, because I don’t think it needs to be a “back half” player who comes in (this just means we wouldn’t have a back half player as sub / sub out a back half player). Nankervis is another who is well and truly in the frame here, and if everyone was in form, Nank would be an easy choice tbh. The other guy here is Charlie Edwards, who is very stiff to have not debuted yet.

* Will Matt Crouch come back in once he’s back to full fitness and picked up a lazy 38 touches in 2 consecutive SANFL games? Remains to be seen, but i am very confident that our midfield would not have been as soundly beaten last night as it was if Crouch played Berry’s role. (Side note: Berry is terrible in the wet as his butterfingers are highlighted more)

* Nick Murray will come straight back in for Butts after the bye. Clear as day.

* I don’t think there’s really any way that we see any of Murphy, Schoenberg, Bond, Burgess, Gallagher, Welsh, T Murray, Jones, Ryan, McAndrew, Borlase or Sholl at AFL level for the remainder of 2025. Some of them have played their last game for us.

* Brayden Cook is still a bit of a wildcard. Hugely disappointing that he hasn’t come on yet, but the talent is enticing and perhaps he is another who could come into the frame over the final 2 months of the season if a couple of injuries strike, or if we want to maintain some aerial ability in games where Tex is not out there. I’ve said it before and and I’ll say it again - Cook is top 10 on our list in terms of raw talent. That doesn’t mean he’s in our best team (he’s blatantly not) but he’s one of the very few players on our list where I wouldn’t be surprised if a trade to another club results in him becoming a good AFL player. If I was a betting man, I’d say Cook will be lucky to even play another 10 senior games for the AFC.

For the bolded, I wouldn't be too surprised if that was the thinking behind Smith being sub. Played too well to be dropped, but Laird is seen as the better player, so we gave Smith a soft demotion.

Also Cook isn't a wildcard. Players who can't be trusted to compete hard, and win contested football have no future at an AFL level. Complete waste of a contract and we put ourselves out of a decent draft for it.

 

[davos44]

What on earth just happened.

After catching my breath, I would go…


Out:
Peatling (susp), Pedlar (he’s just not good and I don’t understand why anyone thinks he is)

In:
Dowling, Taylor

Sub:
Smith


Notes:
1) If it’s wet, TEX MUST NOT PLAY. For crying out loud, in the second half Tex was a complete and utter liability. He had 1 possession in that half and allowed his man to take half a dozen marks. Stop flogging the dead horse.

2) Berry only survives due to Peatling’s suspension. He was a liability tonight.

3) Hinge is on notice. Is the worst player in our back 7 at present and honestly, if we dropped him to bring Smith back in to the 22 I wouldn’t care.

4) Hawthorn do have a smaller than average forward line, so perhaps Butts being dropped to bring Smith back into the 22 also gets discussed.

5) If Neal-Bullen is injured, don’t pick him. He was atrocious tonight and didn’t look fit at all to me.

6) Would be great if someone mentioned to Izak that you actually have to try to be an AFL midfielder.

I love how we watched the same game and have completely opposite thoughts.

 

[jenny61_99]

wasn’t Murray just 1 week on Tuesday. So he’s back in surely.

In
Murray
Out
Butts unlucky

In
Dowling/Draper
Out
Peatling susp

Needs to come back through SANFL I think.