eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: The Bombers won the first quarter. Nothing happened after that. Literally nothing. What? You don't believe me? Fine, the Dons were hammered after that, going down by 50 points. Devon Smith had 26 disposals and 7 tackles whilst star defender Jordan Ridley had 20 disposals and 5 intercept possessions across half back.
Melbourne: Melbourne kept their finals hopes alive for at least one more round by defeating the Giants by 5 points. Ed Langdon's two way running was a feature, having 23 disposals on a wing, whilst the smalls did the damage inside 50 for the Demons with Oskar Baker, Charlie Spargo and half back Trent Rivers kicking 2 apiece, including the match winner from Rivers.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 2-3 Melbourne
Form Guide
Essendon: 1W 3L
Melbourne: 1W 3L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $
Melbourne: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Melbourne
FB: Jordan Ridley - Cale Hooker - Martin Gleeson
FF: Jake Melksham - Mitchell Brown - Charlie Spargo
HB: Devon Smith - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad
HF: Bayley Fritsch - Sam Weideman - Aaron vandenBerg
MF: Kyle Langford - Mitchell Hibberd - Zachary Merrett
MF: Ed Langdon - Jack Viney - Oskar Baker
HF: William Snelling - James Stewart - Brayden Ham
HB: Christian Salem - Adam Tomlinson - Trent Rivers
FF: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Joe Daniher - Jake Stringer
FB: Michael Hibberd - Steven May - Jake Lever
OB: Samuel Draper - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
OB: Max Gawn - Christian Petracca - Clayton Oliver
IC: Matthew Guelfi - Dylan Clarke - Tom Bellchambers - Ross McQuillan
IC: Jayden Hunt - Alex Neal-Bullen - Kysaiah Pickett - Neville Jetta
Essendon in: Tom Bellchambers, Cale Hooker, Ross McQuillan; Out: Andrew Phillips (cos farewell game), Jacob Townsend (omit), Tom Cutler (omit)
Melbourne in: Michael Hibberd; Out: Joel Smith (omit)
Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
This season Essendon averaged 21.6% in terms of goals/inside 50 this season, a little below the AFL average. Melbourne's defence has held up well this season, conceding a goal only 21.1% of the time. Joe Daniher is Essendon's star forward and he will be playing against Steven May inside 50, the Melbourne defender being in All Australian contention so far this season, whilst former teammates James Stewart and Adam Tomlinson will likely renew acquaintances as the secondary key forward match ups. Neville Jetta has had an up and down season, but he has a good record against Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and will try to keep that going whilst Jake Lever will go head to head with Jake Lever, the two former All Australians having mixed seasons in terms of goals.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon and Melbourne are 7th and 8th in clearance differential respectively so far this season, but the big difference is the pair being 15th and 3rd in contested possession differential respectively, and given Melbourne's much larger inside brigade it isn't any surprise at that. Christian Petracca has been fantastic as the main ball winner for the Demons so far this season, whilst Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver and Aaron vandenBerg have been good support for him inside this season. Essendon are significantly smaller with Dylan Shiel as the main man but the size improves with Mitchell Hibberd having significant midfield minutes last week and Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and Dylan Clarke playing well on the inside the past couple of games. On the outside Kyle Langford is having a career best year on a wing, whilst Brayden Ham has improved on his debut season, Melbourne bringing inthe hard working Ed Langdon to improve their two way running on the outside. Rucks wise, Max Gawn is awesome but Essendon are excited about big kid Sam Draper and Tom Bellchambers may get a farewe game as the Dons can't make finals from here.
Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
Melbourne kidck a goal 20.7% of the time it enters their forward 50 this season, around the bottom of the pack in this stat. Essendon have been good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 22.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, around the AFL average. The main match up will be Sam Weideman against Cale Hooker, the young key forward having a career best year, averaging 2 goals a game this season, whilst Hooker may come back from being a shock omission against Port Adelaide, whilst young defender Brandon Zerk-Thatcher will likely go head to head with former don Mitchell Brown. Jake Melksham is Melbourne's best small forward and he loves playying his former side, will be likely to play out of a pocket against star 3rd tall Jordan Ridley, which will be a fascinating match up for neutral viewers.
X-Factor Player
Michael Hibberd may be retiring at the end of the season, will want to put in a good effort against his former side in what may be his last game.
Key stat
Essendon: Defensive conversion. Should be able to contain an average Melbourne forward line.
Melbourne: Clearances. Win this, they win the game.
Tip
Melbourne need a win to make finals. Essendon are playing for nothing. Dees by 45
Essendon: The Bombers won the first quarter. Nothing happened after that. Literally nothing. What? You don't believe me? Fine, the Dons were hammered after that, going down by 50 points. Devon Smith had 26 disposals and 7 tackles whilst star defender Jordan Ridley had 20 disposals and 5 intercept possessions across half back.
Melbourne: Melbourne kept their finals hopes alive for at least one more round by defeating the Giants by 5 points. Ed Langdon's two way running was a feature, having 23 disposals on a wing, whilst the smalls did the damage inside 50 for the Demons with Oskar Baker, Charlie Spargo and half back Trent Rivers kicking 2 apiece, including the match winner from Rivers.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 2-3 Melbourne
Form Guide
Essendon: 1W 3L
Melbourne: 1W 3L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $
Melbourne: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Melbourne
FB: Jordan Ridley - Cale Hooker - Martin Gleeson
FF: Jake Melksham - Mitchell Brown - Charlie Spargo
HB: Devon Smith - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad
HF: Bayley Fritsch - Sam Weideman - Aaron vandenBerg
MF: Kyle Langford - Mitchell Hibberd - Zachary Merrett
MF: Ed Langdon - Jack Viney - Oskar Baker
HF: William Snelling - James Stewart - Brayden Ham
HB: Christian Salem - Adam Tomlinson - Trent Rivers
FF: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Joe Daniher - Jake Stringer
FB: Michael Hibberd - Steven May - Jake Lever
OB: Samuel Draper - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
OB: Max Gawn - Christian Petracca - Clayton Oliver
IC: Matthew Guelfi - Dylan Clarke - Tom Bellchambers - Ross McQuillan
IC: Jayden Hunt - Alex Neal-Bullen - Kysaiah Pickett - Neville Jetta
Essendon in: Tom Bellchambers, Cale Hooker, Ross McQuillan; Out: Andrew Phillips (cos farewell game), Jacob Townsend (omit), Tom Cutler (omit)
Melbourne in: Michael Hibberd; Out: Joel Smith (omit)
Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
This season Essendon averaged 21.6% in terms of goals/inside 50 this season, a little below the AFL average. Melbourne's defence has held up well this season, conceding a goal only 21.1% of the time. Joe Daniher is Essendon's star forward and he will be playing against Steven May inside 50, the Melbourne defender being in All Australian contention so far this season, whilst former teammates James Stewart and Adam Tomlinson will likely renew acquaintances as the secondary key forward match ups. Neville Jetta has had an up and down season, but he has a good record against Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and will try to keep that going whilst Jake Lever will go head to head with Jake Lever, the two former All Australians having mixed seasons in terms of goals.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon and Melbourne are 7th and 8th in clearance differential respectively so far this season, but the big difference is the pair being 15th and 3rd in contested possession differential respectively, and given Melbourne's much larger inside brigade it isn't any surprise at that. Christian Petracca has been fantastic as the main ball winner for the Demons so far this season, whilst Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver and Aaron vandenBerg have been good support for him inside this season. Essendon are significantly smaller with Dylan Shiel as the main man but the size improves with Mitchell Hibberd having significant midfield minutes last week and Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and Dylan Clarke playing well on the inside the past couple of games. On the outside Kyle Langford is having a career best year on a wing, whilst Brayden Ham has improved on his debut season, Melbourne bringing inthe hard working Ed Langdon to improve their two way running on the outside. Rucks wise, Max Gawn is awesome but Essendon are excited about big kid Sam Draper and Tom Bellchambers may get a farewe game as the Dons can't make finals from here.
Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
Melbourne kidck a goal 20.7% of the time it enters their forward 50 this season, around the bottom of the pack in this stat. Essendon have been good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 22.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, around the AFL average. The main match up will be Sam Weideman against Cale Hooker, the young key forward having a career best year, averaging 2 goals a game this season, whilst Hooker may come back from being a shock omission against Port Adelaide, whilst young defender Brandon Zerk-Thatcher will likely go head to head with former don Mitchell Brown. Jake Melksham is Melbourne's best small forward and he loves playying his former side, will be likely to play out of a pocket against star 3rd tall Jordan Ridley, which will be a fascinating match up for neutral viewers.
X-Factor Player
Michael Hibberd may be retiring at the end of the season, will want to put in a good effort against his former side in what may be his last game.
Key stat
Essendon: Defensive conversion. Should be able to contain an average Melbourne forward line.
Melbourne: Clearances. Win this, they win the game.
Tip
Melbourne need a win to make finals. Essendon are playing for nothing. Dees by 45
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