Preview R4: Changes vs. Gold Coast Suns (Match of the Round!!!)

[GreyCrow]

It seems the stats say if we dont get a turnover we dont score

 

[1970crow]

And interestingly Peatling only attended 5 and had 3 centre clearances.

Crouch and Dawson combined for 47 and 3.

WTF, why wouldn’t Peatling be attending more?

Crouch only has 1 role he can play. Interesting his TOG dropped to 62% against Roos.

 

[CrowBloke]

Dont clog up the space
BUT
Be an outlet option

Ah ok. Thanks.

I reckon many of us have played on grounds where 1 wing was the preferred side - it happens

I played yonks ago (schoolboys/Div 2) and was designated either "Second Ruck" or "Ruck-Rover", dinosaur terms.
I didn't like or enjoy playing a fixed position. It always felt like I was waiting for the ball.
Very fit because of 20Kms each-way bike-rides to school (Windsor Gardens to Daws Road) and working on my stepdad's trucks, I played best when allowed to run all over the ground, anywhere, hunting the ball a kick behind the play. Kind of a stopper, and deliverer forward.
The "preferred" side was usually where a diagonal wind was going eg last Sunday most of the play was down the guts or the Western side, favoured by a SSEasterly.

But every now and then the full back would forget himself and kick the wrong side and give a stat to the shape keeper.
I recall many a time running up and down - on my own - yelling for the switch pass - without much success

LOL, still happens often at all levels.
The best sides have multiple players who run and lead all day and don't spit the dummy when the ball goes around or over them. Keays-like players.

 

[WeeBlake]

I was surprised, I thought he was going to say he wanted him to be an option on the other wing.
But he literally said he didn’t want him where the ball was.

Edit: Heard another snippet of this this morning and he literally said his role was to run to the boundary to create space to allow the halfbacks to come through.

Makes sense: if you have an option out really wide the defenders have to spread more and you have a better chance of finding a gap closer to the middle of the ground

 

[CrowBloke]

#1 Disposals per opposition tackle
Bottom 4 for turnovers
#2 of Total possessions
#1 for Post clanger ground ball gets
#2 for center clearances (behind the Suns)
#1 for score off turnover
#2 score from stoppage (behind the Suns)
#1 for scores from defensive half
#2 for defensive 1 on 1 contests

That data is very impressive, thanks. I've enjoyed the 3 wins but it looks like we're better than I thought.

 

[Cromulant]

Well crouch isn’t flexible so he can’t play forward.
Dawson can but I guess crouch and peatling are too similar.

Peatling is also a handy forward option

 

[Betts are off]

It seems the stats say if we dont get a turnover we dont score

Lol, it might have read that way, I did cherry pick the relevant ones we were high in, vs the conversation around restricting ball movement and scores from it.

We were top 6 in a lot more categories too.

 

[Betts are off]

That data is very impressive, thanks. I've enjoyed the 3 wins but it looks like we're better than I thought.

I'd recommend that site. It's super interesting. Sometimes it confirms my suspicions on how we are travelling. Other times it goes the complete other way.

But you're right. They are impressive team stats for a 3 game sample size. Fingers crossed they continue

 

[GreyCrow]

Lol, it might have read that way, I did cherry pick the relevant ones we were high in to the conversation around restricting ball movement though and scores from it.

We were top 6 in a lot more categories too.

Slightly joking but I have seen where a large percentage of our scores are turnovers

Which is fine but a team can't rely on that as the main avenue

 

[Sizzlepack]

Slightly joking but I have seen where a large percentage of our scores are turnovers

Which is fine but a team can't rely on that as the main avenue

Scores from turnover are approximately 60% of all scores in modern footy, and we're currently generating 61.7% of our scores from turnover. The volume of our scoring might be unsustainable, but the profile is not.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

It seems the stats say if we dont get a turnover we dont score

I thought we were number 2 in the comp for scores from stoppage.

 

[119others]

Given up, you mean?

I am consistently disappointed by Nicks' fixed ideas and inflexibility.
The man's stubbornness has, and will, cost us development and growth.

What examples of his stubbornness are you seeing this years that’s leading to these adverse outcomes you mention?

And what examples of his flexibility could you point to also to balance things up?

 

[WheresGroomgone]

Ah ok. Thanks.

I played yonks ago (schoolboys/Div 2) and was designated either "Second Ruck" or "Ruck-Rover", dinosaur terms.
I didn't like or enjoy playing a fixed position. It always felt like I was waiting for the ball.
Very fit because of 20Kms each-way bike-rides to school (Windsor Gardens to Daws Road) and working on my stepdad's trucks, I played best when allowed to run all over the ground, anywhere, hunting the ball a kick behind the play. Kind of a stopper, and deliverer forward.
The "preferred" side was usually where a diagonal wind was going eg last Sunday most of the play was down the guts or the Western side, favoured by a SSEasterly.

LOL, still happens often at all levels.
The best sides have multiple players who run and lead all day and don't spit the dummy when the ball goes around or over them. Keays-like players.

Wow that's some start [and finish] to your day - why didnt you go to Marion or Mitchell Park? Who did you play for after school?

my bad I was thinking Dovar Gardens - holy heck why did you go to Daws Road/Pasedena High?

 

[1970crow]

I thought we were number 2 in the comp for scores from stoppage.

5th on differential.

 

[CrowBloke]

What examples of his stubbornness are you seeing this years that’s leading to these adverse outcomes you mention?

Well, he has not been our Coach for only 3 weeks.
We've had 5+ years of examples and I don't have time to list them all. Life is too short.
Some:
--- previously and this year he has picked his First-22 and stuck with them (until injury has forced change). He says it's because of player continuity, players get used to each other, team bonding etc (as if they have not just had 6 months of pre-season together, to do that).
That's not just stubborn; it's lazy Coaching. "This is the side and I ain't changing it until someone gets injured". It shows a closed mind and inflexibility. It tells players "You're IN until you get injured, or play badly for several weeks and even then I'll probably stick with you because you're best-22" <== MANY examples of that in Nicks' underwhelming career.
To me, that can only create complacency in the favoured players and resentment in strongly-performing players who are missing out.
In bluntest terms, it's not fair eg
--- He's chosen Milera over Nankervis on the basis of Milera's talent and past ("if Milera's fit, he'll play") ie how Milera used to play, in spite of Nankervis' good form last year and strong pre-season. Nicks' pre-conceived ideas of "best" side ignore actual recent performance. This, is stubbornness.
I'd rather hear him say: "If players are fit and performing, they'll play".
The message that send is "Perform, or I'll find someone who does".

Celebrate, enjoy, but do not be blinded by 3 good wins. Winning can mask a number of deficiencies. The current worst problem is that our defence is leaking easy, giveaway goals which has not hurt us --- yet --- because our forwards are on fire + good delivery to them.
Better Coaches (Hardwick this week, Fagan, McRae, Chris Scott, Kingsley --- ALL are better Coaches than Nicks) with better personnel, defences and Game plans will find ways to stop that and when that happens those leaked goals will become losses for us.
Let's review and re-discuss come the Bye? I'll be VERY happy if I am wrong.

And what examples of his flexibility could you point to also to balance things up?

Well, I think he is inflexible, reactive and not pro-active, with little Coaching imagination/intuition/flair, so I don't have any.
But, see above.
Perhaps you could tell me some examples of Nicks' flexibility/flair/innovation ie specifically things coming from NICKS himself and not because the Club has propped up our losingest Coach with Balme/Davis and ready-made players to protect their pre-emptive 2-year extension of Nicks in early 2024...?
Balme's/Davis' input and the performances of Dawson/Rankine/Peatling/ANB/Cumming are to their credit, not Nicks', but plenty of Kool-Aid drinking fans are ignoring 5 years of Nicks-fault misery on the back of 3 wins this year.
It'll take more'n that for me to jump on the Nicks Bandwagon where you and others have front-row seats and short memories.
Hey, I'm LOVING those wins, but I am not yet loving Nicks who blamed everybody but himself, even the players/list/bad luck/Covid etc for those 5 shitty, failing years <== worst 5-year stretch in our History, btw.
If he has 5 years of successes in 2025-2029 with a Flag (or even two, hell, I WISH!!), then he'll break even, only, in my mind.
Do you think Nicks is the man to oversee such a Dynasty?
I do not. Time will tell.
P.S. I despise the tarps and Hinkley with his shit-eating grin, but I'd take his W-L record over Nicks' in the last 5 years in a heartbeat. Even then, Hinkley is loathed by many of his own supporters.
Why?
NO Flag.

 

[cmndstab]

It seems the stats say if we dont get a turnover we dont score

Good news, if we don't score, then the opposition get the ball giving us a chance to turn it over!

 

[CrowBloke]

Wow that's some start [and finish] to your day

Yeah, but I LOVED those long bikerides (about 50 minutes to an hour or so), the solitude, the freedom. Home was not a happy place.
School was my Oasis/sanctuary.

- why didnt you go to Marion or Mitchell Park?

We used to live at Edwardstown, near the Rubber Factory/Mill. From Colonel Light Gardens Primary, I started at DRHS, loved it.
Then my mother shacked up with a bloke (a truckie) who had a better house in Windsor Gardens, so we moved in with him. I got dragged along. I did not want to leave DRHS.
On wet days, I got the Buses across town.
If the weather was bike-ride-able, I did.

Who did you play for after school?

Didn't.
No time. Schoolwork at night. Worked on his trucks on weekends and when I wagged school. Hard yakka, but helped muscle and build development aged 14-15. Holidays ==> Interstate trucking trips.

my bad I was thinking Dovar Gardens - holy heck why did you go to Daws Road/Pasedena High?

See above.
Played for Camden post-Year 12, couple seasons, then drifted away from footy ==> Uni, Squash/Cricket, girls .

 

[119others]

Well, he has not been our Coach for only 3 weeks.
We've had 5+ years of examples and I don't have time to list them all. Life is too short.
Some:
--- previously and this year he has picked his First-22 and stuck with them (until injury has forced change). He says it's because of player continuity, players get used to each other, team bonding etc (as if they have not just had 6 months of pre-season together, to do that).
That's not just stubborn; it's lazy Coaching. "This is the side and I ain't changing it until someone gets injured". It shows a closed mind and inflexibility. It tells players "You're IN until you get injured, or play badly for several weeks and even then I'll probably stick with you because you're best-22" <== MANY examples of that in Nicks' underwhelming career.
To me, that can only create complacency in the favoured players and resentment in strongly-performing players who are missing out.
In bluntest terms, it's not fair eg
--- He's chosen Milera over Nankervis on the basis of Milera's talent and past ("if Milera's fit, he'll play") ie how Milera used to play, in spite of Nankervis' good form last year and strong pre-season. Nicks' pre-conceived ideas of "best" side ignore actual recent performance. This, is stubbornness.
I'd rather hear him say: "If players are fit and performing, they'll play".
The message that send is "Perform, or I'll find someone who does".

Celebrate, enjoy, but do not be blinded by 3 good wins. Winning can mask a number of deficiencies. The current worst problem is that our defence is leaking easy, giveaway goals which has not hurt us --- yet --- because our forwards are on fire + good delivery to them.
Better Coaches (Hardwick this week, Fagan, McRae, Chris Scott, Kingsley --- ALL are better Coaches than Nicks) with better personnel, defences and Game plans will find ways to stop that and when that happens those leaked goals will become losses for us.
Let's review and re-discuss come the Bye? I'll be VERY happy if I am wrong.


Well, I think he is inflexible, reactive and not pro-active, with little Coaching imagination/intuition/flair, so I don't have any.
But, see above.
Perhaps you could tell me some examples of Nicks' flexibility/flair/innovation ie specifically things coming from NICKS himself and not because the Club has propped up our losingest Coach with Balme/Davis and ready-made players to protect their pre-emptive 2-year extension of Nicks in early 2024...?
Balme's/Davis' input and the performances of Dawson/Rankine/Peatling/ANB/Cumming are to their credit, not Nicks', but plenty of Kool-Aid drinking fans are ignoring 5 years of Nicks-fault misery on the back of 3 wins this year.
It'll take more'n that for me to jump on the Nicks Bandwagon where you and others have front-row seats and short memories.
Hey, I'm LOVING those wins, but I am not yet loving Nicks who blamed everybody but himself, even the players/list/bad luck/Covid etc for those 5 shitty, failing years <== worst 5-year stretch in our History, btw.
If he has 5 years of successes in 2025-2029 with a Flag (or even two, hell, I WISH!!), then he'll break even, only, in my mind.
Do you think Nicks is the man to oversee such a Dynasty?
I do not. Time will tell.
P.S. I despise the tarps and Hinkley with his shit-eating grin, but I'd take his W-L record over Nicks' in the last 5 years in a heartbeat. Even then, Hinkley is loathed by many of his own supporters.
Why?
NO Flag.

Jesus, what a tirade of abuse seemingly all over Milera being chosen above Nank THIS year? That can’t be all you have - surely?

 

[OzSparrow]

Everyone conveniently forgetting Milera was one of our best against the Bombers. Yes he had a bad day against North with ball in hand but kept Hansen Jnr - who had been in good form - quiet to the point he got subbed out.

Understand he's the new whipping boy but the need for a whipping boy among a club's supporters would be a fascinating group think psychology study.

Gotta have someone now that the perennial Number 4 is no longer relevant!
However, watch this space tonight for the team list....You know he is the master of the phrase "I'll Be Back""

 

[Crowstar]

Laird should never play midfield again and Rankine should only ever rest in the fwd line.

 

[Geoffa32]

yeah im happy to be wrong,

just noted Peatling had 3 CBAs in the first quarter and only 2 more for the match compared to 21 week prior
and 9 score involvements, compared to 4 score week prior
its great he can play multiple roles - and if Tex is rested we are missing two of our top score involvement players

also found it interesting from the interview, Nicks commented he's happy for oppo players to rack up 20 possessions to half time if we are still winning - history would back that up

Maybe they shared it a bit.

 

[119others]

Well, he has not been our Coach for only 3 weeks.
We've had 5+ years of examples and I don't have time to list them all. Life is too short.
Some:
--- previously and this year he has picked his First-22 and stuck with them (until injury has forced change). He says it's because of player continuity, players get used to each other, team bonding etc (as if they have not just had 6 months of pre-season together, to do that).
That's not just stubborn; it's lazy Coaching. "This is the side and I ain't changing it until someone gets injured". It shows a closed mind and inflexibility. It tells players "You're IN until you get injured, or play badly for several weeks and even then I'll probably stick with you because you're best-22" <== MANY examples of that in Nicks' underwhelming career.
To me, that can only create complacency in the favoured players and resentment in strongly-performing players who are missing out.
In bluntest terms, it's not fair eg
--- He's chosen Milera over Nankervis on the basis of Milera's talent and past ("if Milera's fit, he'll play") ie how Milera used to play, in spite of Nankervis' good form last year and strong pre-season. Nicks' pre-conceived ideas of "best" side ignore actual recent performance. This, is stubbornness.
I'd rather hear him say: "If players are fit and performing, they'll play".
The message that send is "Perform, or I'll find someone who does".

Celebrate, enjoy, but do not be blinded by 3 good wins. Winning can mask a number of deficiencies. The current worst problem is that our defence is leaking easy, giveaway goals which has not hurt us --- yet --- because our forwards are on fire + good delivery to them.
Better Coaches (Hardwick this week, Fagan, McRae, Chris Scott, Kingsley --- ALL are better Coaches than Nicks) with better personnel, defences and Game plans will find ways to stop that and when that happens those leaked goals will become losses for us.
Let's review and re-discuss come the Bye? I'll be VERY happy if I am wrong.


Well, I think he is inflexible, reactive and not pro-active, with little Coaching imagination/intuition/flair, so I don't have any.
But, see above.
Perhaps you could tell me some examples of Nicks' flexibility/flair/innovation ie specifically things coming from NICKS himself and not because the Club has propped up our losingest Coach with Balme/Davis and ready-made players to protect their pre-emptive 2-year extension of Nicks in early 2024...?
Balme's/Davis' input and the performances of Dawson/Rankine/Peatling/ANB/Cumming are to their credit, not Nicks', but plenty of Kool-Aid drinking fans are ignoring 5 years of Nicks-fault misery on the back of 3 wins this year.
It'll take more'n that for me to jump on the Nicks Bandwagon where you and others have front-row seats and short memories.
Hey, I'm LOVING those wins, but I am not yet loving Nicks who blamed everybody but himself, even the players/list/bad luck/Covid etc for those 5 shitty, failing years <== worst 5-year stretch in our History, btw.
If he has 5 years of successes in 2025-2029 with a Flag (or even two, hell, I WISH!!), then he'll break even, only, in my mind.
Do you think Nicks is the man to oversee such a Dynasty?
I do not. Time will tell.
P.S. I despise the tarps and Hinkley with his shit-eating grin, but I'd take his W-L record over Nicks' in the last 5 years in a heartbeat. Even then, Hinkley is loathed by many of his own supporters.
Why?
NO Flag.

Look your posts are quite lengthy and I agree life’s too short so won’t respond to every bit of shit you are hanging on Nicks here but would ask you to consider who is sticking with pre-conceived ideas rather than judging in a reasonable and objective manner on his performance THIS year. It’s not Nicks IMO based on the above.

With Milera if that’s all the Nicks haters have let me tell you…it’s ain’t that much. It’s a marginal decision on a player not likely in the top 15 of the team, who has underwhelmed in 2 of 3 games but importantly hasn’t been shocking by any means. I agreed with Nicks decision that Milera should start the year if fit. If underwhelming performances were to continue he will likely be replaced. There’s a chance he gets replaced this week even - not a big deal. That said, I can’t recall Mileras opponent being overly effective in recent weeks. In fact I thought it was his opponent who got subbed out last weekend. Perhaps this is wrong and/or a defenders main job isn’t to defend his opponent. Happy to stand corrected if so. And finally Nank is hardly an AA calibre hbf who never makes skill errors, gets caught holding the ball etc.

Flexible coaching - well the obvious current example, that multiple media praised Nicks for completely out coaching Clarkson on the weekend, was having Keays take out Comden from having the ability to intercept long kicks into the forward line. One of the footy show showed 3-4 examples of Keays completely negating Comden - who had a career best game the week before with his intercepting - by leading patterns well away from our tall forward threats. Great coaching and worked exactly as planned.

We are playing fast, skilful and attacking football. We are playing the RIGHT way based on modern metrics of success (scoring from turnover and defence etc). We look the best we have since 2017. The talk of the footy world for much of the first 3 weeks and now 4th fave to win the flag. Why many feel the need to revert to default negativity and criticism just continues to amaze me. At least wait for us to actually make real mistakes and lose a game which clearly will inevitably come (I suspect this weekend).

Stats - quoted from Betts are off. If people aren’t impressed by HOW we are playing and winning I don’t know what to say.

Out of interest I checked out the team stats on Wheelo rating and there's some interesting categories that we are high up on to start the season.
#1 Disposals per opposition tackle
Bottom 4 for turnovers
#2 of Total possessions
#1 for Post clanger ground ball gets
#2 for center clearances (behind the Suns)
#1 for score off turnover
#2 score from stoppage (behind the Suns)
#1 for scores from defensive half
#2 for defensive 1 on 1 contests

 

[FR0GGY]

Look your posts are quite lengthy and I agree life’s too short so won’t respond to every bit of shit you are hanging on Nicks here but would ask you to consider who is sticking with pre-conceived ideas rather than judging in a reasonable and objective manner on his performance THIS year. It’s not Nicks IMO based on the above.

With Milera if that’s all the Nicks haters have let me tell you…it’s ain’t that much. It’s a marginal decision on a player not likely in the top 15 of the team, who has underwhelmed in 2 of 3 games but importantly hasn’t been shocking by any means. I agreed with Nicks decision that Milera should start the year if fit. If underwhelming performances were to continue he will likely be replaced. There’s a chance he gets replaced this week even - not a big deal. That said, I can’t recall Mileras opponent being overly effective in recent weeks. In fact I thought it was his opponent who got subbed out last weekend. Perhaps this is wrong and/or a defenders main job isn’t to defend his opponent. Happy to stand corrected if so. And finally Nank is hardly an AA calibre hbf who never makes skill errors, gets caught holding the ball etc.

Flexible coaching - well the obvious current example, that multiple media praised Nicks for completely out coaching Clarkson on the weekend, was having Keays take out Comden from having the ability to intercept long kicks into the forward line. One of the footy show showed 3-4 examples of Keays completely negating Comden - who had a career best game the week before with his intercepting - by leading patterns well away from our tall forward threats. Great coaching and worked exactly as planned.

We are playing fast, skilful and attacking football. We are playing the RIGHT way based on modern metrics of success (scoring from turnover and defence etc). We look the best we have since 2017. The talk of the footy world for much of the first 3 weeks and now 4th fave to win the flag. Why many feel the need to revert to default negativity and criticism just continues to amaze me. At least wait for us to actually make real mistakes and lose a game which clearly will inevitably come (I suspect this weekend).

Stats - quoted from Betts are off. If people aren’t impressed by HOW we are playing and winning I don’t know what to say.

Out of interest I checked out the team stats on Wheelo rating and there's some interesting categories that we are high up on to start the season.
#1 Disposals per opposition tackle
Bottom 4 for turnovers
#2 of Total possessions
#1 for Post clanger ground ball gets
#2 for center clearances (behind the Suns)
#1 for score off turnover
#2 score from stoppage (behind the Suns)
#1 for scores from defensive half
#2 for defensive 1 on 1 contests

It’s a long postoff!

 

[OzSparrow]

Really got to thank the AFL and our dog shit performance last season for these day games in the hottest part of the season.

I agree with Fagan's recent comments re fixturing in Queensland.
Why is this being played in the middle of the day at this time of the year and not a night game?
Stupid fixture even acknowledging how shit both sides were last year.
Then we have a 5 day break after flying to and from Gold Coast after this? Ridiculous.
But hey it's the VFL after all.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Slightly joking but I have seen where a large percentage of our scores are turnovers

Which is fine but a team can't rely on that as the main avenue

The only sources of score are:

• Stoppages (so centre bounces, throw-ins and ball ups)
• Kick-Ins
• Turnovers

Kick-Ins don't provide a lot of scoring since you have to take the ball the length of the ground without losing possession. So stoppages and turnovers would be much bigger sources.

Stoppages allow both teams time to set up their defensive structures, so can be more difficult to score against. Whereas turnovers can catch a team completely out of position, especially if a turnover is from a big skill error that gives the ball to an opposition player already on the move towards goal.

Based on all that, it's no surprise that scores from turnover are often the biggest scoring source.