Preview R4: Changes vs. Gold Coast Suns (Match of the Round!!!)

[Stephen2]

Gold Coast have beaten two teams that have won two quarters between them. (WC won Q1 vs Bris, Mel won Q3 vs GWS)
Adelaide have beaten three teams that have won four matches between them. (StK beat Geelong and Richmond, Essendon beat Port, and North beat Melbourne.)

Hawthorn and the Dogs are the only other teams who have beaten the same teams we have.

Remember last season how Gold Coast won their first two games and everyone thought they were finally going to make the 8? How did that pan out?

Don't underestimate this mob, Hardwick has booted some soft deadwood and they're playing fast tough and skillful footy.

 

[cmndstab]

Gold Coast have beaten two teams that have won two quarters between them. (WC won Q1 vs Bris, Mel won Q3 vs GWS)
Adelaide have beaten three teams that have won four matches between them. (StK beat Geelong and Richmond, Essendon beat Port, and North beat Melbourne.)

Hawthorn and the Dogs are the only other teams who have beaten the same teams we have.

Remember last season how Gold Coast won their first two games and everyone thought they were finally going to make the 8? How did that pan out?

It's not just who they've beaten though, it's the manner in which they've beaten them.

They look like a genuine contender this year. I don't do tips anymore, but if I was I'd be picking Gold Coast.

If we get over them, I'll start to believe that we're serious in 2025.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Don't underestimate this mob, Hardwick has booted some soft deadwood and they're playing fast tough and skillful footy.

Their first half last week wasnt actually that impressive imo, Melbourne were fairly hopeless from start to finish. Still smoked them and it's always tricky to determine how much was one sides excellence vs other sides dross.

Rowell however was terrific and now seems to have that real burst away from stoppage so that's an area we will need to be close to breaking even in.

I'm going to back us to cause the minor upset but it's not with a huge confidence. Very large difference between our ball movement to date and the sides they've played.

 

[DJ75]

But Nicks isn't even coaching for the now properly, Murphy 'now' is still the wrong option.

Murphy won't help us win on Sunday anymore than 5 others who have a brighter future.

Absolute madness, Clappers getting what they deserve, the Mob paying the price.

100% agree with you. There is no defending it.

 

[CrowBloke]

Excellent post, as a whole .

The role that needed replacing was a creative, skillful player who can set up goals and kick them himself when opportunities arise. That player is Taylor. Not Murphy.

I have a Business-owning mate who selects workers that he likes and promotes them in some way. They are usually broken-wing types that he wants to help, to their advantage but the detriment of his Business.
I'd say out of ten, one or two only have come good. Most have failed big-time, making a waste of the promotion and more time/effort having to be put in to undo the damage.
Good, try-hard workers have certain characteristics which just do not equate to Leadership (last year's failed experiment with Murphy) or success at a higher level (eg McHenry).
So it is with Murphy and Nicks --- it's a kind of favoritism but also a kind of blind hope that he will do better, next time.

Not quite as ridiculous as the above blunder is the fact that Milera has been retained for this game. His game against North was nothing short of embarrassing to watch, and his selection looks certain to resign Nank to the sub role, which is a shit choice, considering Nank is clearly better at pretty much everything involved with being a creator off half back or a wing than not only Milera, but also Sholl.

Milera has at times shown brilliance; just not recently, unfortunately. He has terrific natural talent, but it's been soured by injuries. At this point in time, I think Nankervis is the better player, on current form alone.
Milera is another of Nicks' pick-and-hope-he-does-better types, instead of waiting for him to recapture his confidence and brilliance in the SANFL.

On a more positive note, Crouch being rested and no Berry coming in means Draper is an absolute certainty to start in the 22. I would say Peatling takes Crouch’s normal role (with a view towards “cooling” one of Anderson or Rowell), and Draper essentially takes Peatling’s normal role for the day.

Hold that thought, because we're talking about Nicks and his choices.
What you've suggested makes great sense, some innovation and flair but, Nicks, who is change-resistant.
I can see Nicks moving Laird into the Crouch role (reducing our delivery of ball outside and increasing bombs-AWAY! into the F50), Nankervis to Laird's spot, Milera nice'n'snug as is, Draper sub. Again.
Where Nicks will use Murphy is anybody's guess.

All in all, tonight’s selection is another example of the blind faith in proven losers over exciting youngsters that has plagued Nicks’ coaching career.

Yep.
Where Nicks does show flair is in his ability to repeat mistakes, while expecting a different outcome.
"With Josh out, let's go with Murph; he'll be better, this time ...".
Pick and hope.

I’ll be the first one to put my hand up and say “Nicksy nailed it” if Murphy has 20 and 2 and we win

Only once in 115 games has Murphy had 20 or more possessions (vs Saints, 2023), 3 X 19, 3 X 18, 3 X 17.
Once x 4 goals, 4 x 3 goals, 5 x 2 goals, the rest singles or zero.
The chances of him having 20 possies and 2 goals AND "we win" is
1/115 x 10/115 x 46/115 = 0.000302 ie VERY slim. About 3 in 10,000.
Your hand is very safe, down.

but I’m not sure you’ll find anyone who knows football who thinks Murphy is a better anything than Taylor moving forward.

Nicks/ Kelly (what he said was probable bullshit, but he's toeing the Nicks line) and a couple of posters in here.
Oh, wait, I just saw "anyone who knows football" in which case, yeah, likely zero.

They clearly value “experience” over many other things, and are failing to take into account that all Lachie Murphy actually knows is losing. That’s what he is experienced at doing. Losing.

He and Nicks, 40% of the time (46/115) Murphy plays .

 

[CrowBloke]

We did that, and he sucked at that too. He's just not AFL standard. Period.

Agreed.

"Nicks, now on Double-secret Probation" = NO secret at all ...?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Don't underestimate this mob, Hardwick has booted some soft deadwood and they're playing fast tough and skillful footy.

As good a chance to win the premiership as any team IMO especially if they play another non Vic side in prelims and granny

 

[1970crow]

Lets be honest, you're not.

And its fair. He SHOULD be that far back in the pecking order. That he isnt, tells you more about some members of the coaching staff.

Exactly right and the bulk of the coaching staff, haven't changed. We added 1 person. Choosing Milera over Nank after the preseason was all the evidence needed to realise that unless you're cooked, you'll play in a 30:70 call if you're the senior player.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Do we know who is sub yet ?

And where do we think Murphy plays ? Will he be part of mid rotation where he’s been playing in sanfl or will he be Rachele role / replacement ?

I actually prefer the former with low TOG

Nicks is 80% to blame and Pedlar 20% to blame , Pedlar should be watching saying I’m not doing enough with my talent / life if Murphy is playing ahead of me ( even though it’s an extremely dubious call by nicks )

 

[kick it to me_]

Did ANB tag Rowell last year?

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[dplggr47]

Did ANB tag Rowell last year?View attachment 2271908

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Pretty comfortable win. Don't usually need to tag in those situations.
He did tag Merrett and Zorko last year.

 

[CrowBloke]

Pedlar still having nightmares about that absolute bath

... and Nicks still blaming Pedlar.

 

[CrowBloke]

anyone got a direct link to Balme? I wonder what he must be thinking watching this selection

Nicks: selects Murphy.

Balme: "What the **** am I doing here?".

 

[Crow till I die]

Nicks: selects Murphy.

Balme: "What the **** and I are you doing here?".

FTFY

 

[CrowBloke]

FTFY

My bad, *am I.

 

[Mutineer]

Do we know who is sub yet ?

And where do we think Murphy plays ? Will he be part of mid rotation where he’s been playing in sanfl or will he be Rachele role / replacement ?

I actually prefer the former with low TOG

Nicks is 80% to blame and Pedlar 20% to blame , Pedlar should be watching saying I’m not doing enough with my talent / life if Murphy is playing ahead of me ( even though it’s an extremely dubious call by nicks )

You obviously didn't watch the SANFL last week, Pedlar's disposal especially by foot was diabolical, not to mention he looked to cramp as well. His lack of composure is becoming a real worry, it's OK to approach everything like a bull at at a gate but once in possession ffs use it with at least a modicum of composure. 7 kicks 10 handballs @ 41% DE

No way should that type of performance against West (witches hats) put a player up for AFL selection.

 

[kick it to me_]

Pretty comfortable win. Don't usually need to tag in those situations.
He did tag Merrett and Zorko last year.

I thought they won comfortably because he tagged Rowell out of the game but must have gotten my wires crossed, and it was Merrett or Zorko.

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[CrowBloke]

Any straws you got man, give em here, I'll clutch them with you.

You and Viva la Mattner, sadly:

 

[rocket18]

Throw Glengowrie in there too.

I remember when I first started at Seacombe the open age team was almost unbeatable. My year was pretty good too, Robbie Thompson was in it, plus 3 or 4 who played at the Bays and a couple at South. It was a very good team. I think we came close to winning that inter schools thing in '83, my memory is a bit hazy.

Interestingly, I spent my primary school days at West Beach. Same thing there, it's the only school left standing in that little western region. The kids are all in the outer burbs these days.

Any chance you guys can take your high school reunion somewhere else, whilst it's very touching it's not really relevant to our changes vs Gold Coast.

 

[Cromulant]

You obviously didn't watch the SANFL last week, Pedlar's disposal especially by foot was diabolical, not to mention he looked to cramp as well. His lack of composure is becoming a real worry, it's OK to approach everything like a bull at at a gate but once in possession ffs use it with at least a modicum of composure. 7 kicks 10 handballs @ 41% DE

No way should that type of performance against West (witches hats) put a player up for AFL selection.

View attachment 2271942

He's in real danger of wasting away what should have been a great career. DE is a concern, especially when you consider theres more kicks than handballs in the tally.

 

[Mutineer]

He's in real danger of wasting away what should have been a great career. DE is a concern, especially when you consider theres more kicks than handballs in the tally.

edit required

 

[kick it to me_]

Is he going to be the sub?

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[Cromulant]

edit required

Ah yes, more handballs than kicks.

Even in the trials he looked lazy. Still capable of some unbelievably good, but 5 minutes later the unbelievably bad.

 

[Cromulant]

Is he going to be the sub?View attachment 2271967

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You would think so.

 

[WheresGroomgone]

Any chance you guys can take your high school reunion somewhere else, whilst it's very touching it's not really relevant to our changes vs Gold Coast.

can't you concentrate on two things at once? jeez move on Karen.