Preview R9: Changes vs. Port Adelaide

[Mutineer]

Never heard that before

Well obviously that poster hasn't followed Sam Lalor's junior career if he thinks he's "just" a forward and that's what I took from his post. The Christian Petracca/Jordan De Goey comparisons are spot on.

 

[cmndstab]

Timmy G quoted this morning that the lower ranked team had won 22 times.

So that means the higher ranked team has won 34 times. Or, roughly speaking, the higher rated team has won just over 60% of the time.

I'd be curious to know what the AFL average is. Again, I remember there being some study about this a decade ago, but I can't seem to find it.

 

[Mutineer]

Not with rachelle and rankine in the side. He might get on the interchange if he lucky but probably not with his current experience. We could do with another quality small though.

Rankine it would seem is now a very big part of our midfield rotation and Alex Neale-Bullen isn't really a goal kicking specialist small forward.

 

[adelaidecrows]

So that means the higher ranked team has won 34 times. Or, roughly speaking, the higher rated team has won just over 60% of the time.

I'd be curious to know what the AFL average is. Again, I remember there being some study about this a decade ago, but I can't seem to find it.

form plays a massive part of both sides. For the lower ranked team to win id say it relies heavily on whether the higher ranked team is worthy of their spot on the ladder or merely had an easy draw and their form may have not really been world beating. Look we may have our issues but the settled strength of the Crows at the moment should probably see us cruise in this match.

 

[Velvet George]

Well obviously that poster hasn't followed Sam Lalor's junior career if he thinks he's "just" a forward and that's what I took from his post. The Christian Petracca/Jordan De Goey comparisons are spot on.

Hasn’t Lalor been playing midfield?

 

[Mutineer]

Hasn’t Lalor been playing midfield?

Mostly forward until recent weeks.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I always thought whoever was lower on the ladder tended to win showdowns.

Have I checked the stats to back test my theory? Of course not

I don't know what it looks like now, but I remember looking closer at this around ten years ago, and finding that actually, Showdown results correlate more closely with ladder position than the competition average.

Now, whether the margins are smaller than average, I'm not sure.

higher ranked team wins roughly 60%.

I wonder what that ratio looks like when you look at games when the lower ranked team is hosting

 

[Mutineer]

Hasn’t Lalor been playing midfield?

And on that Lalor is a fair bit more physically developed than Sam Draper for the midfield battering, mind you Draper should be being exposed more to the AFL midfield than he has been currently unless he's struggling physically which may be the case given he's out of the team currently?

 

[Danger in Texas]

Changes aren’t what I expected, that’s for sure. Happy about it. Pretty much confirms Smith is 2017 Thommo-type depth

Nank’s clearly being trusted to work through his poor patch. Probably in part due to team balance

 

[Mutineer]

What advantage is there to that for the future?

Only thing I can think of is leadership/experience around the ball but midfield is probably Lachie's natural position. Ever since we recruited him it's only now he's being played there for extended periods.

It was actually what he did as a small defender for the Crows SANFL that got him an AFL shot as a rookie 1st up and that's when the "masterminds" at the Crows decided he was basically a small forward for the AFL team.

 

[Mutineer]

Changes aren’t what I expected, that’s for sure. Happy about it. Pretty much confirms Smith is 2017 Thommo-type depth

Nank’s clearly being trusted to work through his poor patch. Probably in part due to team balance

Still very much time Charlie Edwards was given some AFL exposure and probably Oscar Ryan as well though Edwards seems to have gone past him this season on what I've seen.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Still very much time Charlie Edwards was given some AFL exposure and probably Oscar Ryan as well though Edwards seems to have gone past him this season on what I've seen.

Yeah I would’ve put Edwards in for Nank, he needs to get a shot before the halfway mark of the season

 

[arrowman]

form plays a massive part of both sides. For the lower ranked team to win id say it relies heavily on whether the higher ranked team is worthy of their spot on the ladder or merely had an easy draw and their form may have not really been world beating. Look we may have our issues but the settled strength of the Crows at the moment should probably see us cruise in this match.

Plus, the first Showdown is usually played early in the season, when ladder position doesn't mean as much. Even this year, we're 7 spots above Port, but only one win ahead. Yes, we should win this one, but not just because we're above them on the ladder.

 

[feenix67]

Lalor is a midfielder than can go forward and hit the scoreboard in bunches, the only reason he played so much forward in his draft year and not midfield was he was recovering from a hip/groin/quad and foot issues/fitness and had virtually no pre-season and didn't play until after the half way mark of the CTL season. Added to thay he'd never, ever done a decent preseason due to his cricket commitments with Geelong Grammar and State representation with Vic Country. He might be playing mostly forward now but I'm sure that's only a fitness deal right now, the end game will be midfield without a single doubt.

I said "being played in position". He is a Mid/Forward, spent the first few weeks forward due to conditioning and has gone into the midfield more often recently. Sid, on the other hand, is a pure mid. The stats were posted to note how less TOG, and TOG in position, Sid had received compared to his peers.

 

[CrowBloke]

Im sorry I must have missed where I had decision making abilities at the Adelaide football club. **** me!

The coaches clearly think differently from your opinion. Not sure what I have anything to do with it. So Son.....have a good hard look at yourself before you target me again in a nonsense whining post like I had something to do with it.

Tbh, I'd like to see Draper playing (but I have as much influence/clout as you ) and I still don't trust Nicks' selections
BUT
this is a discussion forum. Not life or death. The anger/outrage is ridiculous.

 

[Scorpus]

higher ranked team wins roughly 60%.

I wonder what that ratio looks like when you look at games when the lower ranked team is hosting

I think the amount of upsets is overblown



When the quality of teams is similar (within 3 wins at the end of the H&A season) the result is a tossup

But when there is a difference in team quality, there are rarely upsets. Just ten times has the better team (4 or more wins better) lost - and the split is 5-5 between Adelaide and Port

When the quality of teams is more than 3 wins apart, the overall results are 22-10 to the better team - 69% win rate

 

[GROTTO]

I think the amount of upsets is overblown

You could have just asked Ken to remind us all what the record was for a while.

Not going to lie, Im going to miss Kenny's theatrics.

 

[CrowBloke]

He is a top 5 pick. Play the man.

Draper is immensely talented; will be a gun.
His speed, evasions, awareness and general skills means he can footy, bigtime,
BUT
he's 18/ 1.82m and 72Kgs. On an AFL field in an AFL game, he's a boy among many men aiming to trample him.
Physically, he makes Sholl look like a brick shithouse.

But changes are afoot in Crows' Gameplay Land:
--- the Crows actually had a ruck/CB plan to beat de Koning (!!)
--- Smith was dropped, Nankervis retained (!! )
If those changes are Nicks' ideas, why's it taken him so long?? (the answer is Davis --- but that's a separate issue, I know)

My guess, and it's only a guess, is that Draper is being treated with 'kid' gloves (not "man" gloves ) and Davis (whom I do trust) has a hand in his development.

 

[cmndstab]

higher ranked team wins roughly 60%.

I wonder what that ratio looks like when you look at games when the lower ranked team is hosting

Strange comment from Sam. "We always say that the ladder doesn't matter, here are numbers showing a significant advantage to the higher ranked team on the ladder which apparently validates our position??"

I think most people would agree that home field advantage is a real thing, but averaged across the league over the last 16 years, the home team only wins just under 57% of the time. The more than 60% win rate of higher-ranked teams in Showdowns is a more significant number than that (albeit with a much smaller sample size).

 

[GROTTO]

Fun Facts with Grotto - Showdown Edition

In 56 Showdowns since Showdown I in 1997, the record is tied at 28W each, only 6 games have been decided by 1 goal or less.

 

[CrowBloke]

higher ranked team wins roughly 60%.

I wonder what that ratio looks like when you look at games when the lower ranked team is hosting

Sam "Tugwell", huh?
... and often?

 

[Slippery Pete]

I think most people would agree that home field advantage is a real thing, but averaged across the league over the last 16 years, the home team only wins just under 57% of the time.

Is that home state advantage or home ground advantage?

You’d think the former would be more than 57% surely.

 

[CrowBloke]

not really. a rookie being gifted a run of games against their form and contribution goes against selection integrity if we are trying to pump games into them. Having said that though a run of full games with a decent amount of time on the ground is never a bad thing. We are only round 9 of his first full year. nothing wrong with pacing him. Maybe the club is cushioning him for a run later in the year. Without being in the inner sanctum its impossible for us to know what the coaches are thinking.

Mate, your logic is sound; your patience/restraint commendable.
You're making waaaay too much good sense and will not change their minds.

 

[The19thMan]

Lalor averaging 14 disposals from 7 games 82% TOG being played in his position
O'Sullivan averaging 13 disposals from 7 games 79% TOG being played in his position
Draper averaging 8 disposals from 7 games 44% TOG being played in no mans land
L Ashcroft averaging 21 disposals from 8 games 77% TOG being played in his position
Langford averaging 18 disposals from 7 games 66% TOG being played in his position

One of these things is not like the others.

CBA % this year for mids drafted in the first round last year

Lalor - 28%
Langford - 26%
Ashcroft - 0%
Draper - 21%
O'Sullivan - 0%

The only other player drafted to get decent CBA time is Tom Gross from WCE (49%)

Fair enough if your argument is TOG, but positionally we are using Draper in line with the other top mids from his draft.

 

[feenix67]

CBA % this year for mids drafted in the first round last year

Lalor - 28%
Langford - 26%
Ashcroft - 0%
Draper - 21%
O'Sullivan - 0%

The only other player drafted to get decent CBA time is Tom Gross from WCE (49%)

Fair enough if your argument is TOG, but positionally we are using Draper in line with the other top mids from his draft.

O'Sullivan has been played on a wing all season, thats at least in the mix. Langford has been eased in and is this week named in their starting midfield rotation. Lalor has similarly been eased in with increasing minutes.

Sid is in the twos.