Race for 2018

Zidane98

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Thread starter #1
All discussions regarding World Cup 2018 should be made in this thread.

I have included it under the Australian World Cup bid section mostly because who wins 2018 will have a great influence on whether Australia wins 2022.

This is how I see the first round of voting panning out:


Senior Vice President (Argentina) Julio Grondona - Iberia for obvious reasons
Vice President (Cameroon) Issa Hayatou - Hard to pick. Cannot see him backing Iberia, possibly England first up for me
Vice President (Sth Korea) Chung **** Joon - Bin Hammam is claiming that AFC will vote us a block for Iberia. Problem is, Chung **** Joon cannot stand Bin Hammam. I predict that he will back England, the best bid technically for 2018.
Vice President (T & T) Jack Warner "The world's biggest gangster" will follow Blazer and back England first up.
Vice Presdient (Spain) Ángel María Villar - Iberia obviously.
Vice President (France) Michel Platini - Wants to see football taken to new frontiers and a statesmen of the game. Will back Russia first up.
Vice President (PNG??) David Chung. Temarii currently suspended. OFC in the process of replacing him on the FIFA executive committee with Chung. If this does happen, expect Chung to back England, through ties with Australia.
Vice President (England) Geoff Thompson - England obviously.


Member (Belgium) Michel D'Hooghe - Belgium/Holland bid obviously
Member (Brazil) Ricardo Teixeria - Backing Iberia through political connections and Qatar/South American collusion.
Member (Qatar) M. Bin Hammam - Iberian bid thanks to collusion
Member (Turkey) Senes Erzik - Has been quoted as saying he will NOT back Iberia. Will probably back Russia.
Member (USA) Chuck Blazer - No American will ever back Russia, Blazer hates Qatar who are colluding with Iberia. Seems almost certain that he will back England first up.
Member (Paraguay) Hard to pick. Not generally considered to be part of the Qatar/Latino collusion although could go down that path anyway. Most likely Iberia.
Member (Thailand) Worawi Makudi - Will follow Bin Hammam and back Iberia first up.
Member (Japan) Junji Ogura - I think he will back the Belgium/Holland bid in return for D'Hooghe's support in the first round. Effectively the two weakest bids supporting each other.
Member (Cyprus) Marios Lefkaritis - Backing England through historical and political ties.
Member (Cameroon) Jacques Anouma - Again will not back Iberia. I'll say that he could vote either Russia or England, most likely Russia in the first round.
Member (Germany) Franz Beckenbauer - England backed Germany after they were knocked out in 2006 voting so expect Beckenbauer to return the favor.
Member (Guatemala) Most likely to follow Warner/Blazer and back England first up. Will certainly not back Iberia thanks to Blazer & Warner who are vehemently against them colluding with Qatar.
Member (Egypt) Hany Abo Rida - Backing Qatar in 2022 first up so will more then likely back Iberia first up
Member (Russia) Vitaly Mutko - Russia for obvious reasons.

First Round:

Russia 8
England 8 (or 7 if OFC does not vote)
Iberia 5
Belgium/Holland 2

Second Round:

Both voters to back Iberia that backed Belgium/Netherlands. Everyone else to vote as previously.

Russia 8
England 8 (or 7 if no OFC vote)
Iberia 7

I am not sure what happens when there is a tie in the penultimate round. If Blatter casts his vote to break the tie I believe that he would back England mostly because he cannot stand Qatar and their collusion with Iberia

I have no idea on how the final round of votes would pan out should it be Russia vs England. Anybody care to elaborate?

If voting doesn't go according to my predictions and Iberia wins, then that isn't good for our bid thanks to the Qatar collusion.

If Iberia do not win expect their "bloc" to lash out and not back Qatar for 2022.

Worst result for Australia: Iberian win.

Best result - An English victory. Anyone aligned with Russia will vote against the US.
 

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usalion

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#2
I think if there are two teams tied at the bottom, all the delegates are asked to vote simply on those two- most votes stays alive, with Blatter casting a tie breaking vote if needed.

If it breaks the way you think it will, comes down to how the Russia votes split for England or Iberia.

Would be interesting who russia would vote for....

Don't have that for sure, but think I read this somewhere in the voting regs.
 
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#3
Yeah - If spain dont win is that bad for qatar ?

Bookies have Russia favourite. Apparently 2022 betting is unrelaible as some bookies arent even running it.

--------------------------------------
If they truly wanted to lower the collusion, they should run both votes simultaneously with a oz parliament style preferential vote form.

then use the preferential results to give the top two candidates for each world cup.

Dont let the delegates have any discussion and then they vote simultanously for each world cup.

Announce the winners simultaneously
 

Zidane98

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Thread starter #4
Could be crucial on whether Oceania votes for 2018. If Iberia don't win then it is bad news for Qatar - what's the point of the "latino" bloc who were colluding with Qatar keeping their agreement to vote for each other?

If I was Iberia and we got done in the 2018 vote I certainly wouldn't back Qatar in the 2022 vote. What for? The only reason Iberia were backing Qatar in the first place was their support in return. The "Latino" bloc know just as well as any of us on here do that Qatar's bid is a joke and they would back out straight away if there was no reason to support them. Who knows, maybe they could possibly take Qatar"s support for 2018 and back stab them for 2022 :)

Russia 2018 result isn't too bad for us either as Ben Buckley is good friends with Mutko and Russia aren't exactly the best of friends with USA.
 

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#5
Who knows, maybe they could possibly take Qatar"s support for 2018 and back stab them for 2022 :)
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this happened. Iberia use MBH and his hangers-on to get over the line for 2018 and then switch to Australia or USA for the 2022 vote.

It gets rid of the 'collusion' cloud that would haunt a Iberia/Qatar result, and any personal recriminations between the Iberian and Qatari bids would be meaningless compared to the WC win.
 

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#8
Russia winning 2018 would be a good sign for Oz.
Absolutely- because it would signal FIFA continuing to break new ground with their host countries. Australia would be the logical place to go after Russia. No, not Qatar, who would be damaged by an Iberia loss.
 

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#9
All discussions regarding World Cup 2018 should be made in this thread.

I have included it under the Australian World Cup bid section mostly because who wins 2018 will have a great influence on whether Australia wins 2022.

This is how I see the first round of voting panning out:


Senior Vice President (Argentina) Julio Grondona - Iberia for obvious reasons
Vice President (Cameroon) Issa Hayatou - Hard to pick. Cannot see him backing Iberia, possibly England first up for me
Vice President (Sth Korea) Chung **** Joon - Bin Hammam is claiming that AFC will vote us a block for Iberia. Problem is, Chung **** Joon cannot stand Bin Hammam. I predict that he will back England, the best bid technically for 2018.
Vice President (T & T) Jack Warner "The world's biggest gangster" will follow Blazer and back England first up.
Vice Presdient (Spain) Ángel María Villar - Iberia obviously.
Vice President (France) Michel Platini - Wants to see football taken to new frontiers and a statesmen of the game. Will back Russia first up.
Vice President (PNG??) David Chung. Temarii currently suspended. OFC in the process of replacing him on the FIFA executive committee with Chung. If this does happen, expect Chung to back England, through ties with Australia.
Vice President (England) Geoff Thompson - England obviously.


Member (Belgium) Michel D'Hooghe - Belgium/Holland bid obviously
Member (Brazil) Ricardo Teixeria - Backing Iberia through political connections and Qatar/South American collusion.
Member (Qatar) M. Bin Hammam - Iberian bid thanks to collusion
Member (Turkey) Senes Erzik - Has been quoted as saying he will NOT back Iberia. Will probably back Russia.
Member (USA) Chuck Blazer - No American will ever back Russia, Blazer hates Qatar who are colluding with Iberia. Seems almost certain that he will back England first up.
Member (Paraguay) Hard to pick. Not generally considered to be part of the Qatar/Latino collusion although could go down that path anyway. Most likely Iberia.
Member (Thailand) Worawi Makudi - Will follow Bin Hammam and back Iberia first up.
Member (Japan) Junji Ogura - I think he will back the Belgium/Holland bid in return for D'Hooghe's support in the first round. Effectively the two weakest bids supporting each other.
Member (Cyprus) Marios Lefkaritis - Backing England through historical and political ties.
Member (Cameroon) Jacques Anouma - Again will not back Iberia. I'll say that he could vote either Russia or England, most likely Russia in the first round.
Member (Germany) Franz Beckenbauer - England backed Germany after they were knocked out in 2006 voting so expect Beckenbauer to return the favor.
Member (Guatemala) Most likely to follow Warner/Blazer and back England first up. Will certainly not back Iberia thanks to Blazer & Warner who are vehemently against them colluding with Qatar.
Member (Egypt) Hany Abo Rida - Backing Qatar in 2022 first up so will more then likely back Iberia first up
Member (Russia) Vitaly Mutko - Russia for obvious reasons.

First Round:

Russia 8
England 8 (or 7 if OFC does not vote)
Iberia 5
Belgium/Holland 2

Second Round:

Both voters to back Iberia that backed Belgium/Netherlands. Everyone else to vote as previously.

Russia 8
England 8 (or 7 if no OFC vote)
Iberia 7

I am not sure what happens when there is a tie in the penultimate round. If Blatter casts his vote to break the tie I believe that he would back England mostly because he cannot stand Qatar and their collusion with Iberia

I have no idea on how the final round of votes would pan out should it be Russia vs England. Anybody care to elaborate?

If voting doesn't go according to my predictions and Iberia wins, then that isn't good for our bid thanks to the Qatar collusion.

If Iberia do not win expect their "bloc" to lash out and not back Qatar for 2022.

Worst result for Australia: Iberian win.

Best result - An English victory. Anyone aligned with Russia will vote against the US.

Interesting stuff - but you gave 7 backing Iberia first up. (Highlighted in red) Which kinda throws your numbers out. If they did get the 7 first up, they will definitely get through to the final 2.

You only have 4 backing Russia first up - whereas you have quoted 8.

In the event of a tie the whole exco committee votes on those two bids about who has the better bid and should go through. I believe Blatter would have the casting vote on this vote and any other tied vote.
 

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#10
Could be crucial on whether Oceania votes for 2018. If Iberia don't win then it is bad news for Qatar - what's the point of the "latino" bloc who were colluding with Qatar keeping their agreement to vote for each other?

If I was Iberia and we got done in the 2018 vote I certainly wouldn't back Qatar in the 2022 vote. What for? The only reason Iberia were backing Qatar in the first place was their support in return. The "Latino" bloc know just as well as any of us on here do that Qatar's bid is a joke and they would back out straight away if there was no reason to support them. Who knows, maybe they could possibly take Qatar"s support for 2018 and back stab them for 2022 :)

Russia 2018 result isn't too bad for us either as Ben Buckley is good friends with Mutko and Russia aren't exactly the best of friends with USA.
I would not be the least bit surprised to see this happen - but I think most of them would go to the USA - particularly those from South America in this "bloc."
 

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Thread starter #11
Interesting stuff - but you gave 7 backing Iberia first up. (Highlighted in red) Which kinda throws your numbers out. If they did get the 7 first up, they will definitely get through to the final 2.

You only have 4 backing Russia first up - whereas you have quoted 8.

In the event of a tie the whole exco committee votes on those two bids about who has the better bid and should go through. I believe Blatter would have the casting vote on this vote and any other tied vote.
My bad. I'll need to sign you up as my editor at work, shocking mathematics on my behalf :)

I must have gotten the Russia/Iberia count confused.
 

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#12
I was looking up the competing bids for 2018 on the FIFA website as we've, somewhat understandably, heard bugger all about them in the media lately. Just having a superficial look over the competing bids and their evaluations, I'd be inclined to think England, closely followed by Iberia would have the best overall ratings, with Russia not all that far behind. I was just wondering why Russia is so favoured at this point? Are politics, lobbying and voting blocs the main reason?
 

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#14
I was looking up the competing bids for 2018 on the FIFA website as we've, somewhat understandably, heard bugger all about them in the media lately. Just having a superficial look over the competing bids and their evaluations, I'd be inclined to think England, closely followed by Iberia would have the best overall ratings, with Russia not all that far behind. I was just wondering why Russia is so favoured at this point? Are politics, lobbying and voting blocs the main reason?
Russia has never had it, that's why.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Interesting to note that Russia & Australia have almost identically sized economies. And yet one is a superpower (still got all those nukes) and the other is an international pygmy - politically speaking.
 

Zidane98

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Thread starter #15
Russia has never had it, that's why.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Interesting to note that Russia & Australia have almost identically sized economies. And yet one is a superpower (still got all those nukes) and the other is an international pygmy - politically speaking.
I never would have imagined that with all of the oil & gas reserves that Russia possesses. I guess they are still recovering from the good ole USSR days when 70% of the national budget was spent on military hardware / nukes and countless dollars trying to keep up with the US in space exploration.
 

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#16
I never would have imagined that with all of the oil & gas reserves that Russia possesses. I guess they are still recovering from the good ole USSR days when 70% of the national budget was spent on military hardware / nukes and countless dollars trying to keep up with the US in space exploration.
This might give you some clue.

From "our mate" Jules.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8175406/WikiLeaks-Putins-secret-billions.html

WikiLeaks: Putin's 'secret billions'

Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, has secret “illicit” assets hidden outside his country, according to allegations contained in reports from Condoleezza Rice, the former US secretary of state, disclosed in the latest batch of Wikileaks cables

He'd be just the latest in a long line.

And you're quite right about the massive military expenditure and space exploration (related industry really) expenditure. And the War in Afghanistan. All these things bankrupted the Soviets and they couldn't compete with the Yanks - who effectively harnessed Western Europe and Japan as engines in their growth machine.

The Soviets never had a hope, but they were too "stupid" to realise it. That is the interesting thing about China. China has not made that mistake. Relatively, their military spending is low - they know there is no point building thousands of nukes - once you got a few hundred, perhaps a 1,000 - do you really need any more? No, a total waste of money.

Better to concentrate on building up the economy to really be able to challenge. And how do you do that? By becoming a succubus on the US & Europe of course.

I have a feeling next year will be very very interesting - starting when European countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain etc. start defaulting instead of being piled with more debt. That is when things will really start to get interesting. Oil may skyrocket again for starters.
 

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Thread starter #17
This might give you some clue.

From "our mate" Jules.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8175406/WikiLeaks-Putins-secret-billions.html

WikiLeaks: Putin's 'secret billions'

Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, has secret “illicit” assets hidden outside his country, according to allegations contained in reports from Condoleezza Rice, the former US secretary of state, disclosed in the latest batch of Wikileaks cables

He'd be just the latest in a long line.

And you're quite right about the massive military expenditure and space exploration (related industry really) expenditure. And the War in Afghanistan. All these things bankrupted the Soviets and they couldn't compete with the Yanks - who effectively harnessed Western Europe and Japan as engines in their growth machine.

The Soviets never had a hope, but they were too "stupid" to realise it. That is the interesting thing about China. China has not made that mistake. Relatively, their military spending is low - they know there is no point building thousands of nukes - once you got a few hundred, perhaps a 1,000 - do you really need any more? No, a total waste of money.

Better to concentrate on building up the economy to really be able to challenge. And how do you do that? By becoming a succubus on the US & Europe of course.

I have a feeling next year will be very very interesting - starting when European countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain etc. start defaulting instead of being piled with more debt. That is when things will really start to get interesting. Oil may skyrocket again for starters.
The best thing for the Russians would be to join up with the EU but I suspect they have too much pride to ever consider that.

Having a look at the Russian Bid site I am am a bit surprised that they didn't include more Asian based Russian Cities (the likes of Irkutsk, Vladivostok).
Then, Russia could have claimed that they had cities in timezones that were suitable for the Asian, European and North/South American markets - something no World Cup bid anywhere else could possibly offer.

Interesting fact - Vladivostok is in the same time zone as Melbourne!!!!
 

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Thread starter #18
Just on the wikileaks thing, it was recently revealed that the US administration labelled Qatar as a possibly security risk regarding terrorism. Relations between the US & Qatar are at an all time low already after Chuck Blazer attacked them publicly (despite everything he did say being the truth anyway).
 

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#19
Having a look at the Russian Bid site I am am a bit surprised that they didn't include more Asian based Russian Cities (the likes of Irkutsk, Vladivostok).
Then, Russia could have claimed that they had cities in timezones that were suitable for the Asian, European and North/South American markets - something no World Cup bid anywhere else could possibly offer.

Interesting fact - Vladivostok is in the same time zone as Melbourne!!!!
I can't speak of Irkutsk or other centres in Siberia. But, I know from documentaries and also from people I've met who've visited or come from the Far Eastern Maritime Provinces of Russia, in particular, Vladivostok that that part of the country has been largely neglected since the fall of the Soviet Union, largely due to the tyranny of distance.

While, you'd assume that this part of Russia would be taking off due to its wealth (and largely still untapped) of minerals and resources, access to the Pacific, and proximity to the economic tigers of Asia, the opposite is largely true. There are vast oil and gas projects further north on Sakhalin Island, north of Vladivostok, but from all accounts Vladivostok is a rough, frontier town with crippling infrastructure and little employment opportunities. It also used to be the home port of the Russian Pacific fleet and as such was a closed town to foreigners up until 1994. I always wanted to visit there but after talking to Russians I met, they always recommended only ever going if accompanied with a Russian, as its still very much a dicey town.

The employment opportunities are so limited that many young Russian men go to South Korea, and presumably elsewhere, to work on the docks and young Russian workers to work .. ahem .. in other fields of employment. You see heaps of Ruskies in Busan, South Korea's main port city as there's a direct ferry. Russian blokes are not to be mixed with, very tough people from all accounts and judging by my experiences I'd agree. Russian women I might add, appear just as tough, if not tougher. ;)
 

usalion

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#22
The best thing for the Russians would be to join up with the EU but I suspect they have too much pride to ever consider that.

Having a look at the Russian Bid site I am am a bit surprised that they didn't include more Asian based Russian Cities (the likes of Irkutsk, Vladivostok).
Then, Russia could have claimed that they had cities in timezones that were suitable for the Asian, European and North/South American markets - something no World Cup bid anywhere else could possibly offer.

Interesting fact - Vladivostok is in the same time zone as Melbourne!!!!
Interesting idea- but then you would really have the world Cup spread out too far. Take a look at both Australia and the uSA, where you could have teams (and supporters) taking five or six hour flights from one venue to another. Add in a couple more thousand miles for going from the heart of Russia to the east coast- yes, you might have the divergence of time zones, but the players and fans would be really messed up.
 

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#23
Saw the last bit of the England United bid. Used the PL a lot during it. It stressed a lot of football related programs like how football can change lives and all that stuff.

The big news out of it was that Sepp seemed very very happy with it.
 

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#24
Going to watch the Russian bid in a few minutes, anyone seen all of the Spain/Portugal and England bids?

Might watch them after Russia and get a comparison (don't really rate Netherlands/Belgium enough to watch theirs)
 

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#25
Russia's list of people

* Igor Shuvalov (Deputy Prime Minister)
* Alexey Sorokin (CEO Russia 2018 Bid Committee)
* Andrey Arshavin (National team captain)
* Anna Netrebko (Mariinsky Opera singer)

Just looked up Anna Netrebko on google to see if I could make a 'it's not over until the fat lady sings' joke but she is gorgeous.
 
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