Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Aug 1, 2013.

Put it out there
  1. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    [Edit! 2015 squiggles start here. Interactive squiggle (with tips, predictor & FAQ) is here. 2014 squiggles started here.]

    I like to chart things for no good reason, so I decided to make a scatterplot of teams from their scores for and against over the course of the 2013 season. It looks like this:

    After Round 18

    [​IMG]

    Each team's flag represents its current position, with the line tracking their journey since Round 1.

    I added premiers from the last 20 years, too, since they mostly wind up in the same area.

    The middle is an unreadable mess, but there are interesting results, too.

    Sydney is currently sitting right where they were when they won the Cup last year. Hawthorn has tracked in a very small area all year, with an exceptionally strong attack but a weaker defense than any premiership-winning team of the last two decades. Geelong is making a late run. Freo look exactly like a Ross Lyon team.

    There's a bunch of teams all around the same area, then a fairly large gap to Port Adelaide, Brisbane, St. Kilda, Gold Coast, and the Western Bulldogs. Then GWS and Melbourne sit a long way behind.

    I also decided to plot the Top 4 teams of the last 20 years who failed to win the premiership and see where they wound up. So in this bunch we have many strong teams. I was interested in seeing whether there was a noticeable difference between flag winners and their closest competition:
    Premiers vs Top 4 Also-Rans

    [​IMG]

    And there does seem to be. In fact, it's possible to draw a "premiership curve" that encompasses 13 of the 20 flags, and 75% of the time over the last 20 years, the team closest to or farthest beyond that curve has won the flag. (The five exceptions: according to this theory, Hawthorn should have won in 2012, Geelong should have won in 2008, St Kilda should have won in 2005, Brisbane should have won in 1999, and St Kilda should have won in 1997.)

    Model Stuff: Each data point is calculated by taking a team's offensive rating and dividing it by the other team's defensive rating. For example, in a match between Hawthorn (OFF: 74.23%) and Essendon (DEF: 54.55%), Hawthorn is expected to produce a score 1.36 times higher than average. Each data point is a weighted average, representing 9% of the most recent round, 8.1% of the round before that (91% of 9%), then 7.45%, and so on. Aside from scores for and against, the only adjustment the model makes is for interstate games, where it assumes a 12-point advantage to the home team. This model has correctly tipped 117 winners this year (72.2%).​

    Update! Play with Dynamic Squiggles here.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2015

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  2. Catfish Alley

    Catfish Alley Brownlow Medallist

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    Jeezus! Hope you don't present charts for a living.
     
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  3. DardySingh360

    DardySingh360 Premiership Player

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    This is pretty awesome, great work!
     
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  4. _Wang_

    _Wang_ .

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    Have no idea what it all means??
    [​IMG]
     
  5. SuperCats9

    SuperCats9 Norm Smith Medallist

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    I don't know what's going on here
     
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  6. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    That's because it looks like somebody threw up after eating rainbow ice cream. But it's not very complicated. Teams that kick big scores move upwards. Teams that restrict opposition scoring move right. Teams that do both move upwards and right, and win flags.
     
  7. Catfish Alley

    Catfish Alley Brownlow Medallist

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    My team is looking fairly good then. I approve.
     
  8. HirdyLannister

    HirdyLannister Norm Smith Medallist

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    I totally endores this theory.
     
  9. rickyp

    rickyp Club Legend

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    Looks good, don't really know what's going on, but looks good
     
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  10. Bosk

    Bosk Suspended

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    That first chart is amazingly good. Much obliged for your efforts!

    Focusing on the top 4 clubs (Essendon excluded for obvious reasons) the chart tells me 3 things:

    - Fremantle's defense is amazing, but they can't score easily enough to win the flag unless there is a MAJOR upset
    - Geelong & Sydney are both similarly poised to their 2009 & 2012 premierships. Both are valid premiership candidates.
    - Hawthorn's offense is amazing, though not as amazing as some of the premiers of the past. It's defense is below almost all recent premiers however.
     
  11. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

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    Thanks!

    I'm not sure what the chart says about Hawthorn's flag hopes... on the one hand, they are farther left than any premier of the last 20 years (just). But it's also uncharted territory, because very few teams have ever charted there.

    I have a squiggle chart like this for every year since 1993, and on many the eventual premier is clearly in front of everyone else. But this year isn't like that... yet.

    Geelong is close to its flag-winning position of '09, yep, but more teams in that area missed the flag than won it. '09 is unusual in that all teams charted quite low & left (suggesting a relatively even year). Also, they've only just entered that area. So I'm not convinced yet.

    Sydney is pretty ominous given that they still seem to have upside with players returning from injury.
     
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  12. bulletproof

    bulletproof Norm Smith Medallist

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    bomberclifford, Penal_ and kaysee like this.
  13. im_a_lazy_sod

    im_a_lazy_sod Norm Smith Medallist

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    ...are you the man from the moon?

    seriously though, good work - pretty interesting to look at once I figured it all out lol
     
  14. Smoky

    Smoky Brownlow Medallist

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    Awesome.

    Keep up the good work :thumbsu:
     
  15. Kynge of Begrem

    Kynge of Begrem Norm Smith Medallist

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  16. QuietB

    QuietB Brownlow Medallist

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    It looks like the crime scene room off the block :eek:
     
  17. Conundrum

    Conundrum Debutant

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    Good work, first look can be confusing but its easy to work out afterwards. Shows a good trend towards improving defence in the roos, even if our offense is not at its highest, balance looks pretty good considering our disappointing year
     
  18. Bender571

    Bender571 Premiership Player

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    In the "also rans" chart which team is to the far right above West Coast 94? Is it Saints 2009?
     
  19. MF

    MF Good Poster, Shit Bloke

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    Brilliant!
     
  20. Rise_up_Stiffy

    Rise_up_Stiffy Premiership Player

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    Are the two crosses on the far right Adelaide in 2005 & 2006?
     
  21. copthat

    copthat Premiership Player

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    Freo's squiggle is bordering on a dick and balls.
     
  22. juice t

    juice t #TheExers

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  23. LongBomb

    LongBomb Brownlow Medallist

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    Geelong are still best, right?
     
  24. SBD Gonzalez

    SBD Gonzalez Norm Smith Medallist

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    The big question mark is how many, if any, we'll get back from injury this year.

    The 22 we're fielding right now might be pretty much the squad we take into September, most likely exceptions being Ben McGlynn and Rhyce Shaw as I understand it.
     
  25. Dinner Plate

    Dinner Plate Club Legend

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    So, what we can establish from this mess is as follows;

    Teams that score more than their opposition are more likely to win.

    Teams that restrict their opposition to lower scores are less likely to lose.

    Cool.