Hawkers
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- Feb 18, 2005
- 8,528
- 4,814
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- Hawthorn
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- Hawthorn
Win or lose, doesn't matter which team, I'm expecting a late start for quite a few players for the next season
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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Win or lose, doesn't matter which team, I'm expecting a late start for quite a few players for the next season
SJ
Premium Platinum
It is. Especially since Geelong finished three games and percentage clear in second.
kaiserchief13
Hall of Famer
- Jul 12, 2011
- 37,839
- 28,583
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
So according to Squiggle one of Hawthorn or West Coast is guaranteed to make the grand final. I'll take it
TennisPlayerAndy
Game #6 Klay
- Apr 1, 2008
- 64,283
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Latest Squiggle, NOW!
NOW GODDAMMIT!
NOW GODDAMMIT!
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- Nov 10, 2013
- 28,564
- 44,090
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- Gold Coast
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- Hell no
I know of people who in 1994, 2005 and 2006 flew to melbourne either via Dubai, Singapore, Jakarta, Bali, or Auckland !
telsor
Hall of Famer
And that was only one WA team...Imagine 2!
Actually, even better...Imagine they have a draw and have to do it all again the following week
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 26,916
- 74,677
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
According to Champion Data those two sides are currently the only sides who currently meet the statistical prerequisites to win a flag this year. (Avg. 100+pts for & <86pts against, based on 14/15 last premiers)
- Sep 16, 2006
- 36,990
- 37,411
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- West Coast
Not just that, but they would have unfinished business and we'd have our whole squad bar Butler having never played in a GF, we'd be a slim to none shot of winning also considering they have the wood over us.
Reasonable chance of hanging myself before the game tbh.
- Oct 5, 2008
- 9,873
- 25,049
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
There is actually something wrong with that ladder predictor. It shows us finishing the season as 15-7 but then only has us losing 2 additional games (Sydney and West Coast). Given that we are now 8-4 that should mean that we finish on 16-6. Not sure how many other errors there in the calculations. This was the only one i noticed.
kaiserchief13
Hall of Famer
- Jul 12, 2011
- 37,839
- 28,583
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
But the lols that would ensue if Eagles beat them...Not just that, but they would have unfinished business and we'd have our whole squad bar Butler having never played in a GF, we'd be a slim to none shot of winning also considering they have the wood over us.
Reasonable chance of hanging myself before the game tbh.
Nah it doesn't award you a whole win but a fraction of a win greater than 0.5
I believe the ladder forecast is actually probabilistic, meaning it doesn't always agree with the individual game tips. That's because upsets always happen, but as they are upsets no one knows when they will happen. Final Siren will be able to explain it.
Have a look at the bracketed numbers, they're the total of the current wins plus the upcoming total of probabilities of the rest of the matches.
So if a side is 5-5 and is a 50% chance to win it's next four matches, the system will say you're 5 wins plus 50% and 50% chance to win the game, which equals six wins.
So if a side is 5-5 and is a 50% chance to win it's next four matches, the system will say you're 5 wins plus 50% and 50% chance to win the game, which equals six wins.
- Banned
- #3,339
And that was only one WA team...Imagine 2!
Actually, even better...Imagine they have a draw and have to do it all again the following week
That's just outright mean
Yeah, this gets covered about once a week in this thread. Read back a bit.
Looks like the top half has been turned upside down so to speak in the last month of football. It's amazing what happens around the bye.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Round 13, 2015
Animated!
Good week for the guy doing squiggles, who gets to see his team within a sniff of the action for once! Yeah! I knew there was a reason I was doing this. The Tigers were pretty bad for the first six rounds, but since then have gotten better and better.
From here, they have a pretty good run home, too. Top 4 isn't out of the question, but requires a mini-implosion from at least one of Fremantle, Sydney, West Coast, or Hawthorn. That is hard to see, since the team with the worst current form, Fremantle, is two games clear on top, while the team with the fewest wins, Hawthorn, is in the best form. But it's also uncommon for the top 4 to remain unchanged after Round 13.
The Hawks enjoyed another good week for doing not very much: They defeated Essendon by precisely the 38 points the squiggle demanded of them, which was enough to stretch the gap to their rivals as Sydney and Fremantle slid.
And at the other end of the chart, it was a fourth good result in a row for Carlton, who continued their upward trend with a 34-point win over Gold Coast.
Another bad week for Fremantle, who aren't just underperforming, but are doing it in the worst possible way, by failing to score. This means they continue to drift further away from the area that almost every premiership team of the last 20 years has landed. The Dockers may well still finish on top of the Home & Away ladder, because they've extracted wins from all their close games (three now by exactly 7 points), but the squiggle believes in dishonourable wins, and this isn't the sort of form that wins flags.
Ladder predictor says:
Live squiggle, explanation why teams don't always get credited for tips in the ladder predictor, etc
That's some freaky shit, man.
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 26,916
- 74,677
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Hawthorn and Melbourne are now the only two teams who haven't crossed Squiggles with another side this season with GWS being tripped by the Doggies. Who will outlast?
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Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Helps that West Coast has had so many bottom 10 sides to play at home where they have put on huge scores against uncompetitive opposition.
This might be an unreasonable request Final Siren but is there a way you could post the projected ladder assuming that all the squiggle predictions are 100% correct? Like for example, let's say a team was projected to have a 55% chance of winning, rather than record that as .55 wins on the projected ladder, record it as a full win including percentage (factoring in the projected score and subsequent margin differential). Would just be curious to see that!
You've had Port, Essendon & Richmond (they are shit, as we beat them, & we haven't beaten anyone
) at home already. You've got Brisbane, Carlton, GWS, us again & Melbourne at home, you're time for some flat track bullying will come!!
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
You've had Port, Essendon & Richmond (they are shit, as we beat them, & we haven't beaten anyone
I know, looking forward to it. Then again, how'd we go against St Kilda last year?
The King!
Chosen One
I thought we would be predicted out of the top 4 by now
