Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Richo83]

Fremantle went to the top of the Power Rankings in round 12 and it was the FIRST power rankings in Australia to have Fremantle on top.

Yet did you have them making the grand final at the end of the year? Your power rankings change a fair bit between weeks.

My model was perfect in tipping this week, eight from eight. I'm not going broke.

You started with 20,000 beans and then decided to quit the thread when you had less than 10,000. I didn't mean that you were literally broke, but the bean bag had suffered a significant injury.

You have nothing nice to say it's probably best you say nothing at all.

Either people are immune from criticism or they're not. You basically condemned this thread because you thought it was wrong, when I showed that it had a fairly decent record, you shifted to saying that you basically already know this stuff, which is a fairly weak criticism. I called you out on it.

Now, I'm disappointed that you get virtiol, and I think at times your critics have been a bit personal. But I don't think I've been that mean to you, either here or in your own thread. Before it was locked, one of my last posts on your 2015 power rankings was a comment in support of your rankings, basically saying that while it has some flaws, it still has merit.

I said this:

Still, there are elements, like considering how injured teams are which are valuable aspects of this model. I just wish he stuck to the model, tipping the suns so much against the blues seemed to be based merely upon his belief that they've been so impressive given their injuries, which gives them an inflated sense of worth with their absence. But if you looked at their teams, considering who was actually playing, the blues had a better lineup. Roby knows the value of the players missing, so he needed to carry that into consideration.

That's me trying to be constructive and supportive. Again, I like the idea of including injury and form into a power rankings system, I just don't think you've got it right yet.

And in the end even now I come with serious questions an instead met with more vitriol and insincerity.

There's no insincerity here, if you honestly think we've been vitriolic here, we apologise.

 

[Clems Knee]

Anyway,
About the squiggly lines:
Are there any further statistical modifications that could be made, based on objective data?
For example:
Can the presence of rain be used as a predictor of lower scores by both teams? I assume it could, but do we have historical data? I'm hoping the last five games in dewy or wet conditions is putting Fremantle lower than it should be on the squiggle ladder, but is this backed up with past results? Are the conditions even recorded?

Can two teams recent head to head results be used to modify predictions and get a better predictor of results? I know Fremantle have historically played well against Geelong, even when they were at their best, and Fremantle were in the bottom eight. We may not have won then, but we got closer than expected.

Do injuries have a statistical impact on teams' performances during the H&A and finals? ie Is there a way this can actually be quantified without invoking rubbery fudging?

 

[B4Bear]

Back in the real world. North have been sucked back into the whirlpool of death.

Damn you GAJ.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I put Roby on my ignore list... has he been posting throughout this thread? All I see are posts that seem a bit disjointed that an ignore would only make sense of

 

[BallaratBulldog]

I put Roby on my ignore list... has he been posting throughout this thread? All I see are posts that seem a bit disjointed that an ignore would only make sense of

I'm sure it will cut him deeply to learn that.

 

[BITW]

Man, I don't care about anything in the last 10 pages, I just want to see the new squiggle. I like it, others like it, can't we all just get along?

 

[Richo83]

Man, I don't care about anything in the last 10 pages, I just want to see the new squiggle. I like it, others like it, can't we all just get along?

The new squiggle is up, have a look at the website, there's a link in the first post on the first page of this thread.

 

[Yuley95]

FFS can we just give Roby his thread back so that we can have the squiggle discussions back?

I endorse this notion and move to have this thread cleaned up and returned to serious discussion of zigs and zags

 

[Final Siren]

Round 14, 2015
Vale Phil Walsh, 1960-2015

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Animated!

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Lots of movement this week! The Saints launched themselves out of the bottom four with a demolition job on Essendon, and now sit alongside the Bulldogs and Giants. That effort was so impressive, it took the attention away from what would otherwise be the upset of the round: the Suns comfortably taking down North Melbourne.

Although still, the Roos have barely budged on the chart all year. It's so weird after those years where they would shoot all over the place every week.

At the top end, West Coast had a fine week, since they blasted Melbourne off Marrara Stadium while Hawthorn struggled with the Pies, Sydney struggled with Port Adelaide, and Fremantle struggled with either Brisbane or the weather, however you want to look at it. But I don't really blame the weather. If it was the weather, both Freo and their opposition would be struggling to score, and the Dockers would be moving down and right, rather than straight down.

And Collingwood and Geelong benefit both from Richmond's unconvincing win over the Giants and from North Melbourne's slide.

Bad week for the Bombers, of course. That was horrible. Although the week was arguably worse for North Melbourne, since they were starting out on what looked like a nice run of easier games into the finals, with a 5th or 6th spot not out of the question, and now they'll have to fight hard to make it.

Ladder predictor says:

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Live squiggle and other amusements

 

[Yidaki]

Round 14, 2015
Vale Phil Walsh, 1960-2015

​

Animated!

​

Lots of movement this week! The Saints launched themselves out of the bottom four with a demolition job on Essendon, and now sit alongside the Bulldogs and Giants. That effort was so impressive, it took the attention away from what would otherwise be the upset of the round: the Suns comfortably taking down North Melbourne.

Although still, the Roos have barely budged on the chart all year. It's so weird after those years where they would shoot all over the place every week.

At the top end, West Coast had a fine week, since they blasted Melbourne off Marrara Stadium while Hawthorn struggled with the Pies, Sydney struggled with Port Adelaide, and Fremantle struggled with either Brisbane or the weather, however you want to look at it. But I don't really blame the weather. If it was the weather, both Freo and their opposition would be struggling to score, and the Dockers would be moving down and right, rather than straight down.

And Collingwood and Geelong benefit both from Richmond's unconvincing win over the Giants and from North Melbourne's slide.

Bad week for the Bombers, of course. That was horrible. Although the week was arguably worse for North Melbourne, since they were starting out on what looked like a nice run of easier games into the finals, with a 5th or 6th spot not out of the question, and now they'll have to fight hard to make it.

Ladder predictor says:

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Live squiggle and other amusements

I think that top 8 looks legitimate as is. I wouldn't even swap any teams around.

 

[Richo83]

I think that's our cue to end the roby v final siren conversation. Roby can respond but I wont be derailing the thread anymore. Sorry everyone, I apologize for helping derail the thread, and I can see that the derailing has pissed off a few posers.

 

[Oneiros]

Looks like the Squiggle has a pretty good bead on where Hawthorn is, they haven't deviated much from that bracket. Still bedding in its impression of West Coast though, they may not have reached their resting point yet.

I've seen Saturn V rocket launches less impressive than that Saints movement!

 

[ep2018]

I will streak just after the first bounce of our home qualifying final if we only lose two more games from here on out. Not happening.

 

[kaiserchief13]

I will streak just after the first bounce of our home qualifying final if we only lose two more games from here on out. Not happening.

Bookmarked.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Did we just move straight down? Wow. It's like we are totally turtling

 

[Beutbrute]

Did we just move straight down? Wow. It's like we are totally turtling

If it's any consolation... the Eagles aren't making a bee-line for you guys now

 

[Royce Hafey]

Did we just move straight down? Wow. It's like we are totally turtling

At least you are not a Bomber in a death spiral. Also, being an anchor probably doesn't help.

 

[RW]

I think the issue is that Roby comes in flinging shit with his delusions of grandeur, rattling on about how poor the Squiggle is for predicting winning bets. Final Siren has never tried to pass the Squiggle off as a betting aid and has been very up front regarding its weaknesses even as a tipping aid. It has always primarily been a visualisation tool of what has happened rather than a predictive tool of what will happen. If you've been following this since inception on here then you'd know that things like the tipping predictions and the ladder forecaster weren't originally part of the Squiggle and were only added following popular demand - and the accuracy of GF tipping has openly been noted as a work in progress. Final Siren has always been very up front regarding his system and how it works, and has never tried to make out that it is full proof or even the best at what it attempts to do. Roby has (or had) his own thread for his own system so when he comes in here just to throw rocks at this one then he isn't going to get a warm reception. The Squiggle isn't immune from critique but it should be immune from critique regarding things it's never tried to be (ie. a betting aid). It'd be like giving a car a bad review because it doesn't make a good boat or plane when all it's trying to be is a car.

Well said mate. We know what the Squiggle is and what it isn't.

 

[JoseMourinho]

Did Final Siren steal all of Roby's beans?

 

[Roobs321]

I love how the Saints, Giants and Bulldogs are standing abreast and facing towards the Hawks zone, something very creepy about that. It's like Dani in the early GOT seasons, some long term threat in a far off land.

 

[Handsuper47]

The Fremantle squiggle looks like some sort of head.

 

[HARKER]

We can squiggle all we like as unless something catastrophic comes about Hawthorn & Sydney will play off in another GF, which will then have the AFL chiefs wondering how to turn around that monotony.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

I love how the Saints, Giants and Bulldogs are standing abreast and facing towards the Hawks zone, something very creepy about that. It's like Dani in the early GOT seasons, some long term threat in a far off land.

With the animated version it looks awesome. Lining up for battle in line formation

 

[RW]

Freo is nose-diving, the Eagles are soaring and the Tigers are roaring. The Swans and Hawks are holding their ground. Season getting interesting!

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Freo is nose-diving, the Eagles are soaring and the Tigers are roaring. The Swans and Hawks are holding their ground. Season getting interesting!

It is almost like Hawthorn and Sydney are 'plateauing'. I feel an upward and outward burst coming around round 18