Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Millky95]

It is almost like Hawthorn and Sydney are 'plateauing'. I feel an upward and outward burst coming around round 18

A mid season lull?

 

[Smeg Head]

Did we just move straight down? Wow. It's like we are totally turtling

Gravity finally grabbed a hold of that anchor.

 

[Spoken4]

Gravity finally grabbed a hold of that anchor.

Anchor or grappling hook?

 

[sedders]

Anyway, TLDR, squiggle is NOT sacred, so stop acting like it is. I like it and use it weekly, but I am getting sick of people:
A. Berating others who have valid points that are negative towards the squiggle; and
B. Reading way more into the current situation of the squiggle than what it is designed for.

Most people get this. In fact its people like roby that criticise squiggle for not doing what it isn't intended for, and then critisise final siren in the process, so is quite rightly berated.

 

[RookiePick]

It is almost like Hawthorn and Sydney are 'plateauing'. I feel an upward and outward burst coming around round 18

Putting Freo, Sydney or West Coast away with a big win should see a Hawks surge.

 

[iluvparis]

the flip happened to this thread?

 

[beert]

[re: the squiggle] It's grand final forecasting is pretty decent

Actually, it's grand final forecasting is extremely fragile, and FS has acknowledged this. Even minor variations in results from expected can change the squiggle's mind on who's going to win it, and even who is going to be in the GF. It would be nice to have something that could make a more robust decision and stick by it.

In the end, the great strengths of the squiggle are (a) it is extremely simple, and hence easy to understand (b) it is completely transparent.

As FS has said previously, it's remarkable that given these two factors, that it also enjoys at least average accuracy. Let's face it, how many tipping models could produce an average result without requiring you to know anything about football except (a) the scores (b) where the teams were from and (c) where the games are played?

 

[The King!]

I will streak just after the first bounce of our home qualifying final if we only lose two more games from here on out. Not happening.

Conflicted now

 

[benneth]

snip

Wow, my first time visiting this thread but thought the squiggle was vaguely familiar, never put 2 and 2 together though.

Jennifer Government is fantastic mate! One of my favourites. I'm a big fan. =D

 

[Hardhat11]

A lot can happen

Roughy diagnosis huge for Hawks

Freos defenders a huge concern if injuries strike

West coast .....depth ...if we lost a Yeo or shuey we would be in strife ...or a defender

Swans ....depth good ....but their defense leaks a bit too

Richmond could make top 4 with huge surge home .....

So much can happen and probably will

 

[zero]

Wow, my first time visiting this thread but thought the squiggle was vaguely familiar, never put 2 and 2 together though.

Jennifer Government is fantastic mate! One of my favourites. I'm a big fan. =D

Agreed, classic

 

[Hawkk]

A lot can happen

Roughy diagnosis huge for Hawks

Freos defenders a huge concern if injuries strike

West coast .....depth ...if we lost a Yeo or shuey we would be in strife ...or a defender

Swans ....depth good ....but their defense leaks a bit too

Richmond could make top 4 with huge surge home .....

So much can happen and probably will

Really? I would argue that their depth is ordinary

Agree with everything else you said. One loss for Richmond over the next 3-4 weeks and top 4 is curtains

 

[Hardhat11]

Really? I would argue that their depth is ordinary

Agree with everything else you said. One loss for Richmond over the next 3-4 weeks and top 4 is curtains

Swans depth isn't ordinary?

But we can agree to disagree ...play on

 

[Millky95]

Sorry who's depth is ordinary?

Sydney's. We have 21 good players, rest are spud-riffic

Jokes aside, our depth in some key areas particularly the backline haven't been tested yet

 

[Hardhat11]

Depth maybe has been tested

Lost white lost Malceski .....who else?

I think swans will face tight salary cap squeeze in the future

 

[kreglze]

Loving the Suns basically moving up that vertical line this round, positive signs.

 

[DrEvil_]

WC doing a Hawthorn 2008 move.

 

[The Dice Man]

Really? I would argue that their depth is ordinary

Agree with everything else you said. One loss for Richmond over the next 3-4 weeks and top 4 is curtains

From rnd 12 last year one loss and finals were curtains too. Top 4 isn't as strong as it used to be. All will drop games, mostly against unexpected opponents.
Beating both hawthorn and Freo, again, would be huge though.

 

[The Anchorite]

Can someone please come and help me from the corner, take my hands from my ears and calm my shakes with a reassuring hug, when the squiggle stops predicting that we lose to West Coast in the Grand Final?

 

[Final Siren]

Can someone please come and help me from the corner, take my hands from my ears and calm my shakes with a reassuring hug, when the squiggle stops predicting that we lose to West Coast in the Grand Final?

If it's any consolation, finals tipping is a bit broken at the moment. Although not in a way that helps Fremantle.

From what I can tell, these things are true:

1. On current form, Hawthorn is most likely to win the flag
   
2. Hawthorn is unlikely to win enough games to finish top 2
3. Home teams overwhelmingly win finals, so Hawthorn is likely to miss the Grand Final

At least one of them is wrong. I tend to believe #1, but it's such a rare scenario, there's no data. And I haven't figured out how to present that conclusion: that the Hawks are squiggle flag favourites even though it doesn't know how they can get there.

 

[Hawkk]

If it's any consolation, finals tipping is a bit broken at the moment. Although not in a way that helps Fremantle.

From what I can tell, these things are true:

1. On current form, Hawthorn is most likely to win the flag
   
2. Hawthorn is unlikely to win enough games to finish top 2
3. Home teams overwhelmingly win finals, so Hawthorn is likely to miss the Grand Final

At least one of them is wrong. I tend to believe #1, but it's such a rare scenario, there's no data. And I haven't figured out how to present that conclusion: that the Hawks are squiggle flag favourites even though it doesn't know how they can get there.

The squiggle is trolling Hawthorn...

The Hawks dominated Essendon, Port Adelaide and Sydney earlier this season and squandered all three games. Win those games and it would be an entirely different equation

 

[MF]

If it's any consolation, finals tipping is a bit broken at the moment. Although not in a way that helps Fremantle.

From what I can tell, these things are true:

1. On current form, Hawthorn is most likely to win the flag
   
2. Hawthorn is unlikely to win enough games to finish top 2
3. Home teams overwhelmingly win finals, so Hawthorn is likely to miss the Grand Final

At least one of them is wrong. I tend to believe #1, but it's such a rare scenario, there's no data. And I haven't figured out how to present that conclusion: that the Hawks are squiggle flag favourites even though it doesn't know how they can get there.

I'd have my money on number 3 being wrong this year. I think the bookies have it pretty much spot on. Hawks favourites with Sydney and Freo level begging behind them. West Coast a way off but only because of a lack of finals experience generally counting against premiership contenders.

 

[Mningasimisonda]

West Coast drifts further into the field of cups while other contenders drift away. Should we be rating them?

 

[FootyMaths]

If it's any consolation, finals tipping is a bit broken at the moment. Although not in a way that helps Fremantle.

From what I can tell, these things are true:

1. On current form, Hawthorn is most likely to win the flag
   
2. Hawthorn is unlikely to win enough games to finish top 2
3. Home teams overwhelmingly win finals, so Hawthorn is likely to miss the Grand Final

At least one of them is wrong. I tend to believe #1, but it's such a rare scenario, there's no data. And I haven't figured out how to present that conclusion: that the Hawks are squiggle flag favourites even though it doesn't know how they can get there.

Ran some squiggle scenarios yesterday, put Richmond way up (for a laugh).

At the top of the new prediction it said 'Premier: Richmond', but the actual outcome via finals was still a WCE win.
Did it just now and a similar result.

 

[Final Siren]

Ran some squiggle scenarios yesterday, put Richmond way up (for a laugh).

At the top of the new prediction it said 'Premier: Richmond', but the actual outcome via finals was still a WCE win.
Did it just now and a similar result.

Aha, thanks for letting me know. That line about "Predicted premier: Richmond" is a debugging line I accidentally left in (now removed) when playing around with how to solve this problem where the team in best flag form isn't tipped to reach the GF. In your scenario, Richmond is in the same place as Hawthorn now: in flag form but tipped to lose a final along the way.