Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Lsta062]

Minor premiers to 10th seems almost impossible barring injuries or other disaster

Geelong in 2014 were 17-5 like Fremantle were 17-5 this year. If they could drop to 10th the following season while having the same wins as Fremantle have this season, it could happen to Fremantle too.

Having said that, I don't think it will happen since Fremantle are defensive and added Bennell to their squad, which is another avenue to score. I personally think that if they do fall next season, they'll fall to about 5th to 8th.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

In the NBA point differential is seen as the best predictor for future success. Similar to percentage for AFL.

On that note I see Collingwood making a leap as a result. Great % despite missing finals. Very similar to West Coast in 2014.

On the flip side Cats did Freo in 2014, and dropped in 2015.

 

[RobZombie]

In the NBA point differential is seen as the best predictor for future success. Similar to percentage for AFL.

On that note I see Collingwood making a leap as a result. Great % despite missing finals. Very similar to West Coast in 2014.

On the flip side Cats did Freo in 2014, and dropped in 2015.

Good but not great % at 106.3. North in 2013 119.5 (one case where it seems they really were genuinely bad at close games and not just unlucky), WCE 116.9 and Crows 114.1 in 2014 were all higher %-wise, all comfortably in the top 8 by percentage, and all jumped into the finals the following year. 106.3 is only good enough for 10th by percentage this year. So not quite as clearly a top 8 side missing out from bad luck or choking. Collingwood also already jumped 12% from 2014 to 2015, so it may be that they've already had their step up in class and only have incremental improvement this year (yes I know, Treloar, Aish, yadda yadda, but things will go wrong too).

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Fair call, I had thought pies percentage was over 110, but just have dropped near the end of the season.

 

[baldandbroke]

Good to see you've got your priorities straight Seppo.

Although if I'd known how it was going to come out, I would have done it sooner!

2016 Ladder Predictor

Play with live squiggle here - same as last year, you can drag teams around to new locations and generate new predictions. Also you can click through every match of 2016 to see the squiggle tips.

This is all based purely on 2015 match results plus the 2016 fixture. That is, there is NO accounting for trades, delistings, retirements, drafting, injuries, returns from injury, or anything else that happens in the off-season. (Which is why it's similar to the 2015 ladder for most teams.) You have to factor that stuff in as and where you think it's significant.

Fremantle is low because the squiggle genuinely thought the Dockers were that average by the end of 2015, based on the scorelines they were delivering. Likewise, it thought Port were pretty good, despite missing finals. Although the Power may be Top 4 only because they got to finish their season off by thumping Fremantle's B-team.

Thanks FS - I went looking for the corresponding ladder from last year? Couldn't find it. The closest I could see was after round 1.

Do you have that handy? I'd love to compare the prediction before round 1 2015 with the current prediction.

Cheers.

 

[Final Siren]

Thanks FS - I went looking for the corresponding ladder from last year? Couldn't find it. The closest I could see was after round 1.

Do you have that handy? I'd love to compare the prediction before round 1 2015 with the current prediction.

Cheers.

2015 Ladder Predictor at the end of 2014

​

 

[Final Siren]

Can you give us a little more detail about the Alternate Reality where Melbourne wins the flag?

Funny you should say! Introducing...

Squiggle Sliding Doors
(Not associated with the crap one.)​

The new squiggle feature, which will go live later today, is an Alternate Reality simulator. You'll be able to go to a squiggle page, click the DOORS icon, and get this:

Click "Open Door" to generate an Alternate Reality that's just like 2015 but with a small random variation applied to all scores. The more luck you set, the more randomness you get.

This allows you to waste time on things like this:

* Find the Alternate Reality in which your team wins the flag. The less luck you use, the more legitimately robbed you can feel.

* Discover interesting scenarios, like the 2013 one where instead of missing finals North make the Grand Final.

* Notice how much luck it takes to budge Hawthorn off the flag in 2015.

And more!

In order to brighten up as many bleak off-season days as possible, and in the spirit of "Twelve-ish Days of Christmas," different years will become available for Sliding Doors on different days, like this:

2015: later today
2014: tomorrow
2013: Thursday
2012: Friday
Then I'm away camping, soz, so no weekend action
2011: Monday 21st
2010: Tuesday 22nd
2009: Wednesday 23rd
2000-2008: Thursday 24th Christmas Eve bonanza

 

[cryptor]

Funny you should say! Introducing...

Squiggle Sliding Doors
(Not associated with the crap one.)​

The new squiggle feature, which will go live later today, is an Alternate Reality simulator. You'll be able to go to a squiggle page, click the DOORS icon, and get this:

Click "Open Door" to generate an Alternate Reality that's just like 2015 but with a small random variation applied to all scores. The more luck you set, the more randomness you get.

This allows you to waste time on things like this:

* Find the Alternate Reality in which your team wins the flag. The less luck you use, the more legitimately robbed you can feel.

* Discover interesting scenarios, like the 2013 one where instead of missing finals North make the Grand Final.

* Notice how much luck it takes to budge Hawthorn off the flag in 2015.

And more!

In order to brighten up as many bleak off-season days as possible, and in the spirit of "Twelve-ish Days of Christmas," different years will become available for Sliding Doors on different days, like this:

2015: later today
2014: tomorrow
2013: Thursday
2012: Friday
Then I'm away camping, soz, so no weekend action
2011: Monday 21st
2010: Tuesday 22nd
2009: Wednesday 23rd
2000-2008: Thursday 24th Christmas Eve bonanza

I would've called it the "Damian Barrett function" instead.

 

[Infamy]

Minor premiers to 10th seems almost impossible barring injuries or other disaster

Hawthorn 2010?

 

[Gunstall555]

Silly question, but why haw Hawthorn 2016 starting position moved so far from their 2015 end position?

 

[iluvparis]

Love the squiggle but simply cant see freo falling that low. Not with their home ground advantage and with lyon etc. They were very average towards the end of the season but still finished top four. Cant see them dropping 6-7 spots. Will be interesting to se how it all turns out, and hopefully nothing like the squiggle predicts.

Rare to find a Freo fan who doesn't agree with the squiggle predictions.

 

[Randomizor]

Rare to find a Freo fan who doesn't agree with the squiggle predictions.

Squiggle sucks at Freo

 

[Final Siren]

Silly question, but why haw Hawthorn 2016 starting position moved so far from their 2015 end position?

Not silly, it comes up a bit. Each year, a year of data gets dropped. The end of 2015 positions are based on 2014 + 2015 data, but for 2016, we throw away 2014's data.

This has the effect of pulling everyone back toward the middle.

 

[Final Siren]

Doors now open for 2015.

 

[Gold Member]

Flat out refuse to see how little luck Hawthorn needs to change 2012....

 

[RobZombie]

Flat out refuse to see how little luck Hawthorn needs to change 2012....

Ditto North and 2013. I know I'm not going to be able to help myself ...

 

[KissKiss]

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2015.html?door=4251542136&luck=99&year=2015
Only took 99% but I finally got us there

 

[Final Siren]

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2015.html?door=4251542136&luck=99&year=2015
Only took 99% but I finally got us there

Well done. I gave up trying to find a Melbourne one.

But I can get a Tiger flag with only 5% luck!

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2015.html?door=14264&luck=5&year=2015

The key seems to be to force Hawthorn into an away prelim against West Coast. Also dodging North.

 

[Final Siren]

Flat out refuse to see how little luck Hawthorn needs to change 2012....

You'll see a fair few Sydney v Adelaide 2012 GFs because of how close the Hawks/Crows prelim was.

There's no allowance for scoring shot accuracy, or how results "should" have gone, so the Hawks need to hold on against the Crows and then execute a 10-pt turnaround in the GF.

 

[KissKiss]

Well done. I gave up trying to find a Melbourne one.

But I can get a Tiger flag with only 5% luck!

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2015.html?door=14264&luck=5&year=2015

The key seems to be to force Hawthorn into an away prelim against West Coast. Also dodging North.

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2015.html?door=3244325071&luck=91&year=2015
My Luck seems strong with getting it at 91% luck. Hell of a GF with Melbourne winning 171-124 over GWS.

 

[Jonts]

Very interested to see how close port were 07 ,01,02,03

 

[cryptor]

With a lot of luck I had Brisbane finishing on top in 2015 (Carlton still dead last) and Melbourne winning the flag over Bulldogs by something like 169 - 44.

Also managed to find a pretty exciting 2014 final series alternate with I think only 10% luck that had 3 finals (an EF, PF and the GF) settled by just 1 point margins. I like it because Hawthorn still won, 125 - 124 over Port Adelaide. I was going to link this one but something must've gone wrong and I have already closed the window.

 

[Final Siren]

Of Hawthorn's three flags, 2015 looks the strongest, because adding a little randomness almost always gives them a couple more Home & Away wins and doesn't affect their finals. Whereas in 2014 and 2013, it can easily cause them to lose a prelim.

1,000 simulations of each year with 5% luck:

2015
990 Hawthorn
10 West Coast

2014
755 Hawthorn
129 Port Adelaide
116 Sydney

2013
827 Hawthorn
149 Fremantle
24 Geelong

 

[The Punter]

This is fun.

But what does luck mean? Hawthorn won their preliminary final by 27 points - hardly a flogging, but certainly comfortable in the end. But what if Hawthorn had not been awarded that free kick against Hayden Ballantyne in the first quarter? That was a dubious free kick. Pretty lucky I would have thought.

As I said this is fun, something to do in the down time.

 

[cryptor]

This is fun.

But what does luck mean? Hawthorn won their preliminary final by 27 points - hardly a flogging, but certainly comfortable in the end. But what if Hawthorn had not been awarded that free kick against Hayden Ballantyne in the first quarter? That was a dubious free kick. Pretty lucky I would have thought.

As I said this is fun, something to do in the down time.

Well Hawks kicked 15.4 in that game. That's some pretty high goal conversion rate. So how much do you put it down to Hawthorn's skill or to a bit of extra luck?