Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Gavin Excell]

Sydney is officially the premiership favourite according to TAB sportsbet

$4 Sydney
$4.50 Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn

 

[Xtreme]

Good now the wheels can fall off the Swans

#bradburypremiership
#lastteamstanding

 

[The King!]

Sydney is officially the premiership favourite according to TAB sportsbet

$4 Sydney
$4.50 Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn

 

[Jars458]

The one thing I can say about the squiggle at the moment is that because the top 5 teams are so close on the ladder, the season predictor and flagpole mean very little as the predictions will change from week to week. I prefer to stick to the classic squiggle as a more reliable guide of where teams are relative to where they need to be. The Crows remain the standout offensive team and the Swans the standout defensive team but the Giants, Hawks and Cats are all near enough to the 'premiership zone' to be able to be considered contenders.

It will all come down to top four and performing on the day. Hawks and Swans have the advantage, as they have been there and done that. GWS and Adelaide on song can be scintilating, Should be a cracker of a finals series.

 

[RW]

I still think that the squiggle overreacts to very low scores, which will often be largely a result of conditions rather than defensive excellence.

Good point, I notice as you go further back in time the defensive ratings are a lot higher. In 1909, when we defeated Carlton 38-36 in the grand final, we had a defensive rating of nearly 115! It is the main reason I think that as good as our defence has been, we need to improve our scoring efficiency to be a chance in September. We still squander a lot of forward 50 entries for a top 4 side.

 

[FootyGeek]

Good point, I notice as you go further back in time the defensive ratings are a lot higher. In 1909, when we defeated Carlton 38-36 in the grand final, we had a defensive rating of nearly 115! It is the main reason I think that as good as our defence has been, we need to improve our scoring efficiency to be a chance in September. We still squander a lot of forward 50 entries for a top 4 side.

We were robbed of four premierships in a row just quietly.

This was before Hawthorn entered the league, so at that stage is was #freekicksouth

 

[deflated]

On the cusp of a 2009-esque mini mid-table rebuild though. Richards about to retire, McVeigh is finally losing that crucial fraction of touch to age, a number of key guys starting to push 30. They'll probably sit out of contention briefly.

Maybe not a squiggle-thread topic but I don't think the Swans are heading for that sort of drop and recover, it'll be something milder. This year was meant to be the mid-table drop after the loss of Goodes, Shaw, Pyke following the Buddy-induced trade clearout; instead its been a very unexpected improvement. Mills is looking like a perfect replacement for McVeigh, Heeney looks like he'll provide the x-factor Goodes brought to the midfield, other youngsters are surpassing expectations.

Barring a rash of key injuries I'm now thinking any decline would be in 3 years with Buddy and Tippet (and maybe JPK) slowing down with Grundy finished; the spine is where we're thin. If (and its a big if) we can keep Mitchell the recent play of Aliir, X. Richards and Naismith leaves me much happier about where the list will be down the track.

And no, I'm not buying the Swans as having an 80+ defence. Maybe Def 75 allowing for the weather?

 

[Randomizor]

Hard to drop off when you can just get top draft picks for a bag of chips

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Cats beat a team by 11 goals, keep them to 4 goals and barely move?

 

[Wojcinski]

Cats beat a team by 11 goals, keep them to 4 goals and barely move?

Because the squiggle had predicted that outcome. Movement is based on how much better or worse the team performed based on predicted movement

 

[romeohwho]

Cats beat a team by 11 goals, keep them to 4 goals and barely move?

We played Essendon. We didn't deserve to move.

 

[SwampCreature]

Another reason why Roby's power rankings are the clearly the superior model, IMO

 

[Final Siren]

I'm keenly awaiting an updated tower of power.

Sneak preview:

 

[GreyCrow]

Looks like a flavoured milk carton

 

[Marc_Remillard]

So 6 teams are sitting in first place and Essendon have 16th, 17th and 18th. I knew they were bad but didn't realise it was so dire

 

[Glenno23]

Crazy that all top 5 clubs have about a similar shot at first place!

So close at the top!

 

[legend166]

The best aspect about Sydney for me is that their losses have generally been tragic losses. The one exception is the loss to GWS, which was an even contest for at least three quarters. In other words, they'll take some beating. You don't hear of too many sides with that competitive record missing the prelims.

On the cusp of a 2009-esque mini mid-table rebuild though. Richards about to retire, McVeigh is finally losing that crucial fraction of touch to age, a number of key guys starting to push 30. They'll probably sit out of contention briefly.

I would agree, but I feel like this was our 2009 in terms of introducing young players, and yet we're somehow premiership favourites. Richards has already been replaced. McVeigh has missed plenty of games this year and we've been okay. It helps that a lot of the guys coming in have been on the list for quite awhile, like Aliir and X. Richards.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I like the Hawk/Crow and the Tiger/Blue that inadvertently got created by the logos.

 

[Crankyhawk]

We were robbed of four premierships in a row just quietly.

This was before Hawthorn entered the league, so at that stage is was #freekicksouth

robbed or did your players in 1909 take a bribe to lie down?

http://www.blueseum.org/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=100 (it references suspicions about 1909)

 

[bungwahl]

I would agree, but I feel like this was our 2009 in terms of introducing young players, and yet we're somehow premiership favourites. Richards has already been replaced. McVeigh has missed plenty of games this year and we've been okay. It helps that a lot of the guys coming in have been on the list for quite awhile, like Aliir and X. Richards.

I think that's spot on. If there was going to be a rebuild year then surely it'd be the year we debuted 7 players. The big question mark might be in 3-4 years when the likes of Tippett, Grundy and JPK come close to the end. Although there will also be 3-4 trade and draft periods by that time too.

 

[chazwazza]

I like the Hawk/Crow and the Tiger/Blue that inadvertently got created by the logos.

 

[Gydafud]

Hey Final Siren

Can you run that "1000 simulations" for the rest of the season for the premiership? It seems extremely varied by this point but curious to see if it is weighted to a particular team.

 

[Final Siren]

I like the Hawk/Crow and the Tiger/Blue that inadvertently got created by the logos.

 

[cryptor]

The one-eyed Tiger and the Carlton mouthpiece.

Worst of both worlds!

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Did LOL!