yes, but so could have 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013...
-
AFLW 2025 - AFLW Trade and Draft - All the player moves
-
Mobile App Discontinued
Due to a number of factors, support for the current BigFooty mobile app has been discontinued. Your BigFooty login will no longer work on the Tapatalk or the BigFooty App - which is based on Tapatalk.
Apologies for any inconvenience. We will try to find a replacement.
Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
- Tagged users None
🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.
yes, but so could have 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013...
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 26,913
- 74,664
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
True. But if we remove all the ones that could have easily gone either way we are only left with attack dominant and balanced sides as premiers.
I'd be feeling quite excited if I were an Adelaide supporter right about now.
Adelaide starting to stalk the centre like a shark preying on an injured seal. Cue Jaws music.OK, bearing in mind this is NOT the ideal point, as discussed above, but just a centre of mass of premiers, it's at 74.0/69.4, which is right here:
- Feb 3, 2004
- 17,999
- 24,204
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- panthers, ukraine & broncos
You obviously haven't met many BF crows supporters! Man, the pessimism is strong on our board.
Log in to remove this Banner Ad
LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
- 35,113
- 40,649
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
I would love to know in how many simulations Melbourne makes the 8
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,507
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #7,906
Footy Maths do calculations like that every week. They have Melbourne on 0%.
Tower of Power agrees. I did 100,000 simulations and Melbourne didn't make the 8 in any of them. So that's 0.000%.
Edit: Wrong, see below.
Last edited:
LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
- 35,113
- 40,649
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
Odd considering that if Melbourne win and St Kilda and North lose they're in the box seat.
- May 27, 2006
- 51,261
- 102,748
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- I'm aware of and love the Miami Dolphins
- Moderator
- #7,908
I like those odds!
- Oct 26, 2012
- 8,898
- 13,131
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Not really. I'd say North are in the box seat as they'd still be 2 wins plus percentage clear of Melbourne with 2 rounds to play (with one of those remaining games for Melbourne being vs Geelong in Geelong).
MatterOfStats does a similar thing with a few different views. They have Melbourne at 0.3% of finishing 8th and 58.8% probability of finishing 11th. Roos are 74.4% probability of getting that last place. It has a great heat map. Almost every spot is set in stone besides 1-5.
chiwigi
I’ll make tears from your Wines.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,507
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #7,912
Gahh, I'm sorry, I was looking at the wrong place, 7th instead of 8th. Tower of Power actually has Melbourne at 0.427% of making the finals (427 out of 100,000 simulations).
Last edited:
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,507
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #7,913
Yes, and I will probably make next season's Flagpole do something like this. For now, though, it's purely a form rating, which doesn't care about ladder position at all.
- May 27, 2006
- 51,261
- 102,748
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- I'm aware of and love the Miami Dolphins
- Moderator
- #7,914
I love those odds!
Is there a way to tell:And here is the last 20 years of squiggle finishes, with 2016's teams highlighted in green.
Sydney really are one of the hardest teams to score against in the last 20 years, and Brisbane one of the easiest.
Essendon are close to "worse than Fitzroy" territory.
Essendon and Brisbane are also in worse positions than every team to ever receive a Priority Pick. But they're in better positions than three teams that didn't: GWS 2012/13 and Melbourne 2013.
Out of all the teams that finished with a greater than 70 attack rating, how many went on to win the flag.
Out of all the teams that finished with a greater than 70 defence rating, how many went on to win the flag.
LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
- 35,113
- 40,649
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
#Melbournefansdoingfinalsmath
And here is the last 20 years of squiggle finishes, with 2016's teams highlighted in green.
Sydney really are one of the hardest teams to score against in the last 20 years, and Brisbane one of the easiest.
Essendon are close to "worse than Fitzroy" territory.
Essendon and Brisbane are also in worse positions than every team to ever receive a Priority Pick. But they're in better positions than three teams that didn't: GWS 2012/13 and Melbourne 2013.
Are you able to somehow add in what the years are?
Gydafud
Premium Platinum
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
- Jul 12, 2013
- 40,520
- 51,189
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Colorado Rockies :'(, Colorado Avalanche
🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,507
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #7,921
If you subscribe to the Many-Worlds Hypothesis, which says that an infinite array of parallel worlds exist, representing all possibilities, then it's not just a chance: Melbourne will definitely make finals! There's just a low chance of us happening to exist in that world.
About the same chance as conceiving quadruplets naturally.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,230
- 17,507
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #7,923
Other things that are possible but less likely than Melbourne making finals:
- Bulldogs finish top (0.002%)
- Bulldogs miss finals (0.002%)
- West Coast finish top (0.009%)
- Melbourne lose all remaining games while Gold Coast hand out a series of spankings that allow them to overtake the Demons on percentage (0.001%)
- Ninthmond (0.016%)
- St Kilda finish 7th (0.001%)
- Carlton replace Fremantle in the bottom 3 (0.030%).
KissKiss
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 26, 2012
- 9,476
- 12,610
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
That sweet sweet 0.016% chance
Sid Ruckle
Club Legend
- Sep 22, 2012
- 1,287
- 1,210
- AFL Club
- Sydney
OK, bearing in mind this is NOT the ideal point, as discussed above, but just a centre of mass of premiers, it's at 74.0/69.4, which is right here:
Thanks, exactly what I was getting at.
How about extending the spot to something like my attached image, be interesting to see how many premiers fit into the circle / oblong or whatever shape it may be over the last few decades.
Edit: like an archery board
..
Last edited:
Similar threads
