Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Monopoly_Man]

Said it earlier in the season and saying it again, Adelaide are overrated. They may lead the league in score for, but are 7th on the least conceded list. They've won away from home but not with regularity and have even struggled at home.

If Adelaide has a home final they'll make a prelim, but I doubt they'll make the big dance.

Adelaide will win the Grand Final, it is written in the stars.

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[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Said it earlier in the season and saying it again, Adelaide are overrated. They may lead the league in score for, but are 7th on the least conceded list. They've won away from home but not with regularity and have even struggled at home.

If Adelaide has a home final they'll make a prelim, but I doubt they'll make the big dance.

Not sure how losing 10-1 home record = "Struggled at home" (a better record than Sydney's home record this year), but I think we learnt earlier this year that you don't put much weight in actual facts and empirical data.

 

[Freakrat]

Said it earlier in the season and saying it again, Adelaide are overrated. They may lead the league in score for, but are 7th on the least conceded list. They've won away from home but not with regularity and have even struggled at home.

If Adelaide has a home final they'll make a prelim, but I doubt they'll make the big dance.

Just wondering how you can say adelaide has struggled at home when they have onl lost 1 game and the only games where they haven't won by 5 goals or more were against sydney 10 point win and GWS 22 point win..


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[Millky95]

I think Adelaide are the team to beat. Geelong seem to have their number given the past two games they played each other but look a bit shakey at the moment. Can never write the Hawks off and GWS are a big unknown at this point.

Wouldn't want to play Adelaide in Adelaide this year.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I think Adelaide are the team to beat. Geelong seem to have their number given the past two games they played each other but look a bit shakey at the moment. Can never write the Hawks off and GWS are a big unknown at this point.

Wouldn't want to play Adelaide in Adelaide this year.

You may not need to play us in Adelaide though. If the current ladder positions are maintained then you'll play us in Sydney week 1 of the finals.

Given the Crows only won by 10 points at home it suggests the result could easily be reversed in Sydney.

 

[Final Siren]

I'm a bit late to this discussion, but yes mid week last week Melb was listed as 0% (was a very low % but I trim off the small fry).
Current estimation has them at 3% (actual 2.95%).

Interesting that throughout the 2nd half of the year, the outsiders for 8th have been mainly PA and STK. Melb have not had any notable (+1% !) claim on 8th since R9 (by my data anyway).

Thanks for the post! While you're here, I wonder if you can explain more about how you build the Footy Maths Swarms. One thing that's puzzled me is how they seem to make extremely confident predictions, such as putting Essendon at a 100% chance of finishing last after Round 18. Even though the Bombers are indeed likely to win the spoon, I don't see how you can rate it as a certainty when there were five games remaining with the Bombers only one game behind Brisbane. My rating of their spoon likelihood at the same time was only 89%, based on my knowledge of how accurate (or otherwise) my model's tips tend to be. How do you calculate your probabilities, if you don't mind my asking?

 

[Millky95]

You may not need to play us in Adelaide though. If the current ladder positions are maintained then you'll play us in Sydney week 1 of the finals.

Given the Crows only won by 10 points at home it suggests the result could easily be reversed in Sydney.

It'll be at ANZ so no real homeground advantage. We didn't get the 3 games there like we normally would so it makes it more even

 

[Final Siren]

Adelaide were pretty high throughout last season too, even though they really didn't make much of a dent.

Question is though, who will finish higher, Swans or Crows?

They won a final, which is better than 13/17 other teams (including Sydney).

 

[The Swans Blog]

They won a final, which is better than 13/17 other teams (including Sydney).

Yes that's true, without looking at the state of each team. But which is expected to finish higher on flagpoles this season? There's 2 games left and Adelaide has a decent lead.

 

[Rotayjay]

Our chances of winning the flag increase dramatically with a top-2 finish, and increase even further if we somehow avoid playing Geelong. Playing a top-4 team away from home, and playing Geelong anywhere, are the things that look like stopping us.

It's great to be rated by Squiggle, but I've been very frustrated at the stuff which the Crows have dished up against quality oppo (bar the Sydney game). Geelong look shaky, but we've seen a few teams in the last 20 years who looked shaky in the minor round and then had a great September (Malcolm Blight says hi). Sydney ominous but are they still too defensive? Are Hawthorn too far past it for their Hawthorn-ness to win the flag? I believe it's Hawks and Swans as equal frontrunners, Geelong not far behind, and Crows a little further behind. I think the $5 bookies are currently offering for an Adelaide flag are roughly fair odds.

 

[The Gong]

Our chances of winning the flag increase dramatically with a top-2 finish, and increase even further if we somehow avoid playing Geelong. Playing a top-4 team away from home, and playing Geelong anywhere, are the things that look like stopping us.

It's great to be rated by Squiggle, but I've been very frustrated at the stuff which the Crows have dished up against quality oppo (bar the Sydney game). Geelong look shaky, but we've seen a few teams in the last 20 years who looked shaky in the minor round and then had a great September (Malcolm Blight says hi). Sydney ominous but are they still too defensive? Are Hawthorn too far past it for their Hawthorn-ness to win the flag? I believe it's Hawks and Swans as equal frontrunners, Geelong not far behind, and Crows a little further behind. I think the $5 bookies are currently offering for an Adelaide flag are roughly fair odds.

I'd rate the Crows as flag favourites right now but I wouldn't say Sydney are too defensive. During the middle of the season we were but we've found some balance I think. We've posted scores of 146, 100 and 137 in the last three weeks. Not against top shelf competition I know but at least we're hitting the scoreboard. Best defense in the league, fourth best attack and best percentage. I think we're where we need to be to compete.

Edit: We're also getting Tippett back as a predominantly stay at home forward for the short term and Xavier Richards has slotted in well and added another avenue to goal. We're one of the highest average inside 50s teams in the league so we are attacking but our conversion usually stinks. I'm hoping those additions will improve upon that.

 

[Rotayjay]

I'd rate the Crows as flag favourites right now but I wouldn't say Sydney are too defensive. During the middle of the season we were but we've found some balance I think. We've posted scores of 146, 100 and 137 in the last three weeks. Not against top shelf competition I know but at least we're hitting the scoreboard. Best defense in the league, fourth best attack and best percentage. I think we're where we need to be to compete.

Edit: We're also getting Tippett back as a predominantly stay at home forward for the short term and Xavier Richards has slotted in well and added another avenue to goal. We're one of the highest average inside 50s teams in the league so we are attacking but our conversion usually stinks. I'm hoping those additions will improve upon that.

You're in with an excellent chance. Starting to look like 2012 perhaps. These days, I'd rather see the Swans win it than your Frankenstein little brother, Hawthorn or Dangerflog.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Our chances of winning the flag increase dramatically with a top-2 finish, and increase even further if we somehow avoid playing Geelong. Playing a top-4 team away from home, and playing Geelong anywhere, are the things that look like stopping us.

It's great to be rated by Squiggle, but I've been very frustrated at the stuff which the Crows have dished up against quality oppo (bar the Sydney game). Geelong look shaky, but we've seen a few teams in the last 20 years who looked shaky in the minor round and then had a great September (Malcolm Blight says hi). Sydney ominous but are they still too defensive? Are Hawthorn too far past it for their Hawthorn-ness to win the flag? I believe it's Hawks and Swans as equal frontrunners, Geelong not far behind, and Crows a little further behind. I think the $5 bookies are currently offering for an Adelaide flag are roughly fair odds.

The Crows are the only team to beat West Coast at home this season and also beat GWS and Sydney at home. They also had 40 scoring shots to 17 against North.

The Crows biggest loss for the season has been by 30 points (Geelong at Kardinia where the Cats record in the past 10 years has been ridiculously good). The other loss to the Cats was by 26 points. Besides the Cats, their losses have been by 3 points to Hawthorn away, 10 points to North away and 15 points to the Bulldogs away.
That’s not exactly what you’d call terrible form against top 8 teams, especially when the Crows lead in the last quarter in losses to Hawthorn and North and got to within 1 point of Geelong and 3 points of the Bulldogs in the last quarter.

 

[philohk]

The Crows are the only team to beat West Coast at home this season and also beat GWS and Sydney at home. They also had 40 scoring shots to 17 against North.

The Crows biggest loss for the season has been by 30 points (Geelong at Kardinia where the Cats record in the past 10 years has been ridiculously good). The other loss to the Cats was by 26 points. Besides the Cats, their losses have been by 3 points to Hawthorn away, 10 points to North away and 15 points to the Bulldogs away.
That’s not exactly what you’d call terrible form against top 8 teams, especially when the Crows lead in the last quarter in losses to Hawthorn and North and got to within 1 point of Geelong and 3 points of the Bulldogs in the last quarter.

Not terrible, but it stacks up to 4-5, which isn't world-beating either. That said, I do think the Crows are one of the flag frontrunners.

 

[chazwazza]

I think it's pointless saying who in the current top 6 can or can't win it until the minor round ends or the top two and top four is decided. It's so close this year there's too many permutations that will influence opportunities. Even in the last few weeks we've seen just how much an unexpected loss or the lack of percentage earned in a win can affect a teams outlook.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Not terrible, but it stacks up to 4-5, which isn't world-beating either. That said, I do think the Crows are one of the flag frontrunners.

Trouble is no team really stands out in that regard because of how even the top 4-5 teams are. Geelong as the best top 8 record with 8-2, but they have lost to three bottom 10 teams and nearly lost to a fourth one last week.

Some will argue that those results don't matter because the bottom 10 teams won't be playing finals. Others argue that if Geelong struggle against bottom 10 teams, what chance do they have of beating top 4 teams come finals.

Hawthorn are 6-3 vs top 8 teams, but two of those wins were by 3 points, another by 5 points and one by 9 points . So 4 of the 6 wins were by a total of just 20 points. Some would argue that means the Hawks win the close ones. Other would argue that it shows the Hawks are beatable as they're only falling over the line in a lot of their wins.

The reality is it will probably come down to what teams play better on the day.

 

[ep2018]

Our chances of winning the flag increase dramatically with a top-2 finish, and increase even further if we somehow avoid playing Geelong. Playing a top-4 team away from home, and playing Geelong anywhere, are the things that look like stopping us.

Hopefully for your sake You get the Swans at home first in the QF and someone knocks out Geelong in straight sets (WB or North).

 

[legend166]

I was very, very close to bumping this thread to gloat, but I thought better of it: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/who-has-the-worst.1119770/page-5

There's a significant number of people in that thread who said the Swans had the worst defence in the league. Now we're in the middle of one of the great defensive seasons in the modern era.

 

[Rotayjay]

The reality is it will probably come down to what teams play better on the day.

Spot on - unlike some other seasons, the team that wins the 2016 flag will not be a team who's a cut above the rest. The team that wins this flag will be the one that takes its chances when the whips are cracking. I highly suspect that Hawthorn will do just that, and highly suspect that the Crows won't.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawthorn are 6-3 vs top 8 teams, but two of those wins were by 3 points, another by 5 points and one by 9 points . So 4 of the 6 wins were by a total of just 20 points. Some would argue that means the Hawks win the close ones. Other would argue that it shows the Hawks are beatable as they're only falling over the line in a lot of their wins.

One of those losses was in Round 1 as well, and I don't think much should be taken from the early rounds when it comes to finals. 4pts is all that matters early on.

Every coach will tell you that the league's teams are trying to find themselves over the first 5 weeks and are often playing different football in Round 10 from what they were in Round 8, so I always find it a bit odd when commentators talk about who has beaten the most top 8 sides, as we seem to completely disregard the coaches stating that gameplans and the way they want their teams to play can change multiple times throughout a year.

 

[pjcrows]

Any of the current Top 5 can win it if they hit form at the right time and don't have any injuries. The "best footy" of Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong and GWS is capable. Just a matter of who turns it on.

If Hawthorn beat West Coast on Friday night and secure 1st they will be the definite favourite.

 

[GreyCrow]

I agree. Its anyones and that's why I want the Crows to go hard at it for the next 6 weeks

 

[Tippett2Goal]

I was very, very close to bumping this thread to gloat, but I thought better of it: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/who-has-the-worst.1119770/page-5

There's a significant number of people in that thread who said the Swans had the worst defence in the league. Now we're in the middle of one of the great defensive seasons in the modern era.

Frankly at the start of this season (and even up till round 10ish) I had questions on our defense too, it was obvious at the end of last year that Teddy was done as a KPD, and when we lost his replacement in Talia, we were left playing a defense which on pre season ratings would have very little form line, Grundy serviceable, Smith excellent, Rampe average (who would have predicted his awesome year), how could we predict the strength of Mills playing backline for first time in career, Aliir? who?, Jones/Cunnington etc.

Its great in hindsight that our defense has been excellent, but dont think too many swans supporters predicted a team with 3 untried players in our backline as having a strong defense either.


Also worth keeping in mind how our defensive squiggle ranking has been affected by wet games.

 

[WCE_phil]

Frankly at the start of this season (and even up till round 10ish) I had questions on our defense too, it was obvious at the end of last year that Teddy was done as a KPD, and when we lost his replacement in Talia, we were left playing a defense which on pre season ratings would have very little form line, Grundy serviceable, Smith excellent, Rampe average (who would have predicted his awesome year), how could we predict the strength of Mills playing backline for first time in career, Aliir? who?, Jones/Cunnington etc.

Its great in hindsight that our defense has been excellent, but dont think too many swans supporters predicted a team with 3 untried players in our backline as having a strong defense either.


Also worth keeping in mind how our defensive squiggle ranking has been affected by wet games.

A large part of the reason your defence is good is because of how good your midfield is in contested situations. You get the ball to ground in defence and get a ball up or out of bounds and with your midfield grunt you will clear it significantly more often than most teams in this manner.

 

[FootyMaths]

Thanks for the post! While you're here, I wonder if you can explain more about how you build the Footy Maths Swarms. One thing that's puzzled me is how they seem to make extremely confident predictions, such as putting Essendon at a 100% chance of finishing last after Round 18. Even though the Bombers are indeed likely to win the spoon, I don't see how you can rate it as a certainty when there were five games remaining with the Bombers only one game behind Brisbane. My rating of their spoon likelihood at the same time was only 89%, based on my knowledge of how accurate (or otherwise) my model's tips tend to be. How do you calculate your probabilities, if you don't mind my asking?

System predicts games based on teams current ranking head to head, with allowance for each team to play within a window of their ranking. So for Ess, it would have them almost certainly losing to a top ranked team, as the window of Ess playing above their ranking and a better ranked team playing below would need to intersect. I will admit to perhaps not having those windows wide enough.

SO in the case of prior to Ess v Bris, it was 87% for a Lions spoon (Dons HGA boosting their chances). That was the most likely best chance to avoid it, but as we all know it was passed up.
And it looks clear that the windows for intersection may be set too tight as 200 rank points above Ess was the Suns, and it found them to be no chance of winning. Will need refinement in the off season.