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I wonder when the last time a team has lost by 190? You'd be able to work out what the actual probability is.

Highest margin ever is coincidentally 190. So has only ever happened once.

5 games over 150 point margin in the last 5 years. Or once a year.

That's 1 in 396, which is only half the equation. So the actual probability based on results is 0.0000063769. If I've done the math correctly. And that's only to get close to the the required margin.

I'd say that the probability is even less than that. It's a 1 in 156,816 chance that there is a result of two 1 in 396 chances occurring. However, in this case the result needs to happen in those 2 particular games and the result needs to be in a particular direction (i.e. it won't work if Fremantle wins by 150 points or Essendon loses by 150 points).
 
I'd say that the probability is even less than that. It's a 1 in 156,816 chance that there is a result of two 1 in 396 chances occurring. However, in this case the result needs to happen in those 2 particular games and the result needs to be in a particular direction (i.e. it won't work if Fremantle wins by 150 points or Essendon loses by 150 points).

You won't hear any arguments from me. It's near impossible
 
Round 22, 2016

6dc5aWH.jpg

Animated!

OfUvWv0.gif

That loud KER-CLACK you heard on the weekend was Sydney locking up top spot. Also possibly NicNat's knee exploding. They both happened around the same time. But that should do it for Sydney, who are surely too good for Richmond in the final round, since it actually counts this year, and far ahead enough on percentage to stave off anything short of record-breaking thumpings from Adelaide and Geelong.

Likewise, the Crows should hold 2nd spot, although their task is more challenging, since it involves West Coast rather than the Tigers. The Cats could catch them on percentage if they belt Melbourne by 100 points or so while the Crows only squeeze home, but still, that looks pretty safe.

Then the final ladder will look like this:

WSgX919.png

Potential horror for Hawthorn, with a loss to Collingwood likely to bump them out of the top 4. In fact, they could slide from 1st last week to 6th next week, which would be quite the journey. The Hawks have a long strip of potential finishing positions:

I83lpLD.jpg

The Giants are also hard to place right now, since their game against North is no gimme, and could move pretty far in either direction if they get the right results around them.

Melbourne were always a long shot for the top 8, but blew it on the weekend, handing 9th place to the Saints. Although it is actually possible for St Kilda to make finals: I ran 25,000 sims and they snuck in once. So that's kind of tantalizing. But the other 24,999 times, North got through.

Flagpole! GWS gets a lot of credit for a 92-point smashing of Fremantle in Perth, and the Eagles rise to something like their pre-NicNat-injury position, just as they lose him again.

Right now, you'd definitely call a Sydney-Adelaide Grand Final, with those teams not only in the best form, but also, with home finals, facing the easiest run.

cT9IDlq.gif

Live squiggling!

P.S. Special mention for Dwayne Russell this week, who at the end of the Adelaide/Port game was shouting about how the Crows could pinch top spot on percentage. Yeah, if they kicked 10 goals in three minutes. NICE MATHS DWAYNE.
Round 22, 2016

6dc5aWH.jpg

Animated!

OfUvWv0.gif

That loud KER-CLACK you heard on the weekend was Sydney locking up top spot. Also possibly NicNat's knee exploding. They both happened around the same time. But that should do it for Sydney, who are surely too good for Richmond in the final round, since it actually counts this year, and far ahead enough on percentage to stave off anything short of record-breaking thumpings from Adelaide and Geelong.

Likewise, the Crows should hold 2nd spot, although their task is more challenging, since it involves West Coast rather than the Tigers. The Cats could catch them on percentage if they belt Melbourne by 100 points or so while the Crows only squeeze home, but still, that looks pretty safe.

Then the final ladder will look like this:

WSgX919.png

Potential horror for Hawthorn, with a loss to Collingwood likely to bump them out of the top 4. In fact, they could slide from 1st last week to 6th next week, which would be quite the journey. The Hawks have a long strip of potential finishing positions:

I83lpLD.jpg

The Giants are also hard to place right now, since their game against North is no gimme, and could move pretty far in either direction if they get the right results around them.

Melbourne were always a long shot for the top 8, but blew it on the weekend, handing 9th place to the Saints. Although it is actually possible for St Kilda to make finals: I ran 25,000 sims and they snuck in once. So that's kind of tantalizing. But the other 24,999 times, North got through.

Flagpole! GWS gets a lot of credit for a 92-point smashing of Fremantle in Perth, and the Eagles rise to something like their pre-NicNat-injury position, just as they lose him again.

Right now, you'd definitely call a Sydney-Adelaide Grand Final, with those teams not only in the best form, but also, with home finals, facing the easiest run.

cT9IDlq.gif

Live squiggling!

P.S. Special mention for Dwayne Russell this week, who at the end of the Adelaide/Port game was shouting about how the Crows could pinch top spot on percentage. Yeah, if they kicked 10 goals in three minutes. NICE MATHS DWAYNE.
Look forward every week to your statistical season data. Your comment on Nic Nat, however, lacks class..
 
Look forward every week to your statistical season data. Your comment on Nic Nat, however, lacks class..

LOL your tears are delicious :'(
 

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Look forward every week to your statistical season data. Your comment on Nic Nat, however, lacks class..
images (2).jpg

it just goes so well with your username
 
How do I see these probabilities on the Squiggle website?
Live squiggle -> Forecast -> Home & Away

They're listed as probabilistic wins, e.g. "0.75 wins" means a 75% chance of victory.

Also as mentioned on the live squiggle they're from the older linear model, e.g. Adelaide is 75% instead of 73% as I posted earlier.
 
Just to give people a heads up of Squiggle Tips for the 6 games of importance

Adelaide v West Coast 102-79
Geelong v Melbourne 90-60
Sydney v Richmond 100-46
Hawthorn v Collingwood 91-73
North v GWS 79-84
Fremantle v Bulldogs 64-85
 

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Crows still a chance for mine. Week off does them wonders in numerous ways.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk
 

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Just to give people a heads up of Squiggle Tips for the 6 games of importance

Adelaide v West Coast 102-79
Hey Squiggle. Turn your mirror around
 

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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

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