- Oct 26, 2012
- 8,898
- 13,131
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
I wonder when the last time a team has lost by 190? You'd be able to work out what the actual probability is.
Highest margin ever is coincidentally 190. So has only ever happened once.
5 games over 150 point margin in the last 5 years. Or once a year.
That's 1 in 396, which is only half the equation. So the actual probability based on results is 0.0000063769. If I've done the math correctly. And that's only to get close to the the required margin.
I'd say that the probability is even less than that. It's a 1 in 156,816 chance that there is a result of two 1 in 396 chances occurring. However, in this case the result needs to happen in those 2 particular games and the result needs to be in a particular direction (i.e. it won't work if Fremantle wins by 150 points or Essendon loses by 150 points).




