Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[The Swans Blog]

Brisbane continues to break new grounds on the left...

Really is quite amazing how poor they've become just 12 seasons down the track. Hawks nearly folded just a few years after their 10 years of success, whilst North almost up and left Melbourne again just a few seasons after 1999 and their dominating 1990s. It just shows how important it is to capitalise on the markets when you're up. Brisbane exist in such a marginal market along with the Suns where they're competing against the incumbent Rugby sports. It's incredibly tough to capitalise, but they had a chance to and they damn well should have.

Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney are teams that have turned success on the field into success off the field, massively increasing their membership base and securing their primary sources of incomes for long term future growth.

 

[Cynic]

Boring Squiggle predictions.

1 beats 4; 2 beats 3; 5 beats 8; 6 beats 7
4 beats 5; 3 beats 6
1 beats 3; 2 beats 4
1 beats 2

I, with no hidden agenda, call for a few upsets to shake the season up.

 

[DrEvil_]

Boring Squiggle predictions.

1 beats 4; 2 beats 3; 5 beats 8; 6 beats 7
4 beats 5; 3 beats 6
1 beats 3; 2 beats 4
1 beats 2

I, with no hidden agenda, call for a few upsets to shake the season up.

It is the nature of the squiggle, cold, hard, accurate.

 

[The Gong]

So Sydney is the best team in the multiverse. I like it.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Boring Squiggle predictions.

1 beats 4; 2 beats 3; 5 beats 8; 6 beats 7
4 beats 5; 3 beats 6
1 beats 3; 2 beats 4
1 beats 2

I, with no hidden agenda, call for a few upsets to shake the season up.

1 beats 4, 2 flogs 3, 5 flogs 8, 6 beats 7
6 flogs 3, 4 beats 5
1 flogs 6
4 beats 2
1 utterly embarrasses 4 to the tune of 400 points.

Shake up provided

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Boring Squiggle predictions.

1 beats 4; 2 beats 3; 5 beats 8; 6 beats 7
4 beats 5; 3 beats 6
1 beats 3; 2 beats 4
1 beats 2

I, with no hidden agenda, call for a few upsets to shake the season up.

Upset for GF day would work out OK for me.

 

[SuperSub17]

Obviously an upset in there is likely somewhere, but it would have to be a long time since all finals were won by the home team. I don't think we've had it under the final 8 - 2009 got close until Geelong ran over the top in the GF.

 

[Cynic]

Obviously an upset in there is likely somewhere, but it would have to be a long time since all finals were won by the home team. I don't think we've had it under the final 8 - 2009 got close until Geelong ran over the top in the GF.

Incidences of the home team/higher team losing in the finals:

2015 - 4
2014 - 3
2013 - 3
2012 - 3
2011 - 4
2010 - 1

 

[SuperSub17]

Incidences of the home team/higher team losing in the finals:

2015 - 4
2014 - 3
2013 - 3
2012 - 3
2011 - 4
2010 - 1

2015 actually had 5:
Adelaide (7) beat Bulldogs (6)
North Melbourne (8) beat Richmond (5)
North Melbourne (8) beat Sydney (4)
Hawthorn (3) beat Fremantle (1)
Hawthorn (3) beat West Coast (2)

Although Hawthorn was designated 'home' for the GF as they were in the top half of the draw.

Just did a quick check and 1974 was the last time all higher teams won - 42 years is a long time.

 

[beert]

Final siren - what are the probabilities for the finals results? It's not necessary to count partial wins any more, but it's still interesting to see what the squiggle thinks chances of an upset are.

 

[JD Tomahawk]

Gil said it depends who GWS play if they Make the prelim as to where they'll host. Definitely spotless if it's the Bulldogs. Maybe Geelong aswell. But WCE or Hawks would be anz

 

[momentbymoment]

Get the f*** out of this thread too. FFS can you arse sore Swans go sook about the MCG in numerous other threads instead of stinking up the best thread on BF?

Hawks are still winging about losing a Friday night game in 2012, but the idea that a national competition should have a traveling GF is a travesty. That's why it will always be a *peat.

I will enjoy watching you guys tank again.

 

[DrEvil_]

Hawks are still winging about losing a Friday night game in 2012, but the idea that a national competition should have a traveling GF is a travesty. That's why it will always be a *peat.

I will enjoy watching you guys tank again.

Start your own thread, or better yet, sook in the many existing threads. Please leave this for squiggle discussions.

 

[Munich]

We're still losing to Syd in the GF?

Ugh.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Get the f*** out of this thread too. FFS can you arse sore Swans go sook about the MCG in numerous other threads instead of stinking up the best thread on BF?

I've got a box of tissues at home on the couch. Gimme your address and I'll fedex them along with a copy of the 2012 GF and eventual 2016 GF where we win it.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

chunkychicken has me believing that if Sydney don't win, it will be the biggest choke of all time

 

[Xtreme]

chunkychicken has me believing that if Sydney don't win, it will be the biggest choke of all time

Bigger than the previous choke of all time 2014 ?

 

[The Swans Blog]

Probably, should have wiped the floor with your mob, except they all went to water when your players went the biff.

Very un-Sydney like

 

[Troystenvic]

Probably, should have wiped the floor with your mob, except they all went to water when your players went the biff.

Very un-Sydney like

Should have but didnt.

 

[beert]

chunkychicken has me believing that if Sydney don't win, it will be the biggest choke of all time

Re:chunkychicken

On behalf of most Swans fans...

We're not with him! We never saw him before in our life!

 

[Rotayjay]

I love this thread. Really I do.

 

[3socks]

chunkychicken has me believing that if Sydney don't win, it will be the biggest choke of all time

Finals 2016: Choking The Chicken

 

[Rotayjay]

End of Home & Away season 2016

Animated!

That was a bad game to lose, Adelaide. Very bad.

The shafting Adelaide received this week was really noteworthy in its breadth, depth, and thoroughness, as I'll get to in more detail later. But first: Sydney! They look all right. Winning by 113 points in a game where you hold the opposition to two goals at three-quarter time is impressive, even if it is with the aid of interstate home advantage, and against a team THAT COULDN'T DISAPPOINT ME MORE IF IT WERE MY OWN SON. Go to your room, Richmond. You disgust me.

The Swans have spent the past month climbing the vertical axis by beefing up their scoring. They are still a lot more defensive than the typical premier. But not more than the typical Sydney premier.

Geelong and GWS did what they needed to do to lock down a top 4 spot. So did Hawthorn, although far more shakily.

Now let's talk about the Hawks. Last year, they lost 4 games in the first 8 rounds by an average of 6 points. As such, they could only finish 3rd in the home & away season despite being by far the most impressive team. That was because at the same time, Ross Lyon had made a secret bargain with Ocxthn'GGia the Demon Goat-God of Close Games, in which he agreed to hand over Zac Dawson's virgin soul in exchange for at least half a dozen fall-over-the-line wins.

So the Hawks got screwed there. They probably should have won their close ones, of course, but the fact is that whether a team wins a close game is very random. Plus, even if they had, they couldn't do anything about Fremantle winning all their close ones.

BUT LOOK HOW IT TURNS AROUND. This year, in any kind of fair universe, Hawthorn deserves to finish outside the top 4. They've won games by 3, 3, 3, 9, 5, and 1 point, while their losses are by 30, 75, 14, 29, and 25 points. That's a whole lot of wins that were one stroke of luck away from becoming a loss, and a bunch of losses that couldn't have been anything else. Across 2015-2016, Hawthorn's win-loss record on close games now actually looks normal. But last year has all the losses and this year has all the wins. It's like flipping a coin 10 times and getting five heads in a row followed by five tails. On balance, it's what you'd expect, but the distribution is crazy.

Anyway, given what happened in 2015, it's probably fair play for the Hawks to square up now. But Adelaide can feel aggrieved, because if you shake 2016 and randomize all the results a little, it's hard to get an outcome where they miss the Top 4. Yet here we are.

This is what the ladder looks like if you run the Squiggle Doors simulation with 5% luck 5,000 times. This modifies all scores by a small random amount, so that close wins can easily turn into close losses, and vice versa, while more emphatic results stay like they are. It has nothing to do with squiggle ratings, the fixture, or any kind of prediction; it's purely about adding a little random chance to each result, in order to simulate how easily things could be different:

Ladder Position | In Fair Universe | In This Universe \1st.|Sydney|Sydney\2nd.|Geelong|Geelong\3rd.|GWS|Hawthorn\4th.|Adelaide|GWS\5th.|West Coast|Adelaide\6th.|Hawthorn|West Coast\7th.|Western Bulldogs|Western Bulldogs\8th.|North Melbourne|North Melbourne\9.|St. Kilda|St. Kilda\10.|Port Adelaide|Port Adelaide\11.|Melbourne|Melbourne\12.|Collingwood|Collingwood\13.|Richmond|Richmond\14.|Carlton|Carlton\15.|Gold Coast|Gold Coast\16.|Fremantle|Fremantle\17.|Brisbane|Brisbane\18.|Essendon|Essendon

So everything is the same except Hawthorn move 3 spots.

Here is the same thing in Tower of Power style. It shows the chances of each team finishing in a particular position, given 5% luck:

North can feel fortunate, too, with those close wins earlier in the year to thank for getting them into the finals. They had practically no chance of finishing higher than 8th and a big chance of finishing lower. It could easily have been St. Kilda in there.

Anyway, we now have pretty strong teams in 5th and 6th, in Adelaide and West Coast. Finals are very commonly won by home teams, so it's a big ask for either of them to go all the way. But I do think this year offers by far the best chances of a team outside the Top 4 reaching the GF than we've seen for a while.

The official prediction, though, is this:

​

North and the Bulldogs look quite a lot weaker than the top 6, so they're expected to go out. I feel extra-confident about this because I know Elimination Finals involving North always go exactly to plan.

Flagpole! Another tightening, with Sydney zooming to the top.

​

I will try to do quick finals previews later in the week.

​

Live squiggle!​

Surely Adelaide have now taken the cake for WHO WANTS TO DROP A CRUCIAL GAME? in season 2016. Especially considering their choke against Hawthorn in April. And the hilarious tease of the Hawks-Pies game in which, for thirty seconds, it looked like Hawthorn would lose and give the Crows the consolation prize of fourth place but instead an obscure ruckman kicked a goal from the centre clearance.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I've got a box of tissues at home on the couch. Gimme your address and I'll fedex them along with a copy of the 2012 GF and eventual 2016 GF where we win it.

chunkychicken guaranteeing that Sydney will not win the 2016 flag with another of his "accurate" predictions.

Fans of non-Sydney teams rejoice!

 

[cryptor]

chunkychicken guaranteeing that Sydney will not win the 2016 flag with another of his "accurate" predictions.

Fans of non-Sydney teams rejoice!

He hasn't been this cocky (pun intended) and combative since the 2014 finals series. Worked out brilliantly I recall.