Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[KillaKanga]

C'mon Squiggle... work your magic tonight please:

Fremantle 104 - 62 Carlton

Freo should win but I can see Carlton scoring 80 points and that would move Freo left back towards the pack.

I'm tipping 98 - 82


North are screwed. No way we'll keep the Cats to 70 points. I'll be happy if it's under 100, esp at Etihad.

 

[treefingers]

Holy shit, I had no idea the footy was on tonight.

 

[DardySingh360]

Holy shit, I had no idea the footy was on tonight.

Thursday Night Football

 

[treefingers]

 

[Roo Lives Again]

They should have Thursday night football very week...that would be hell
cool

 

[tazaa]

Anyone just tipping the home teams this week?

 

[Dirty Bird]

Anyone just tipping the home teams this week?

7/9
Geelong > Norf
And I just have this feeling on St Kilda.

 

[wcadams88]

What would Geelong have to do in the next 5 rounds to constitute being a premiership threat i:e Win all 5 games at a margin of 10+??

 

[tazaa]

7/9
Geelong > Norf
And I just have this feeling on St Kilda.

Ive gone 7 too. Squiggle just changed my opinion of picking Saints up there I cant do it.
Have gone Lions and Power to upset

 

[treefingers]

What would Geelong have to do in the next 5 rounds to constitute being a premiership threat i:e Win all 5 games at a margin of 10+??

If you beat Freo and Hawthorn(again) then I think Geelong will be close to 2nd favourites for the flag, behind Sydney

 

[Catsace]

More on Grand Finals later. I still need to hone some stats. But home state advantage does seem to be less of an advantage in Grand Finals... in fact there's some evidence the opposite is true.

But it's a slippery area because there's far less data. When I'm calibrating a model for general footy tipping, I can use data from 3,571 games since 1994. When I'm looking at Grand Finals over the same period, there are only 21 games, which makes it easier to imagine patterns that aren't there.

What I know for sure right now is that ISTATE-91:12 has been a lot worse at tipping Grand Finals than regular matches over the last 20 years. And it's been especially bad at tipping Grand Finals involving one Victorian team and one non-Victorian team. It would have done a lot better if it assumed that there was a home state disadvantage.

Another interesting thing is you can tip all finals except the Grand Final very accurately just by picking the home team. You don't need to know anything about football at all. Because of course the top teams are given home finals games, and they very often win. But then the GF rolls around and that evaporates.

Geelong losing two GF's to the Eagles probably doesn't help, and of course the Crows back to back over Victorian sides St.K and the Roos. Add the Lions in 01-03 over three Vic sides, and Sydney 2012 as the cherry on top!

 

[Hawkk]

With Geelong and Hawthorn to follow we'll find out a lot about Freo over the next 2 rounds...

They'll need to find more than 6 goals in 3 and a half quarters for both

 

[footy75]

Sydney hawks and cats for the flag

 

[B4Bear]

The squiggle is on exactly the same number of tips as me: 100. I put exactly 60 seconds into it each week and even missed a round and got all away sides. That puts it, and me, just inside the 7th percentile. Good but not great.
The squiggle is a great probablistic model, but it's just that.

Except it computes it in about a millionth of the time you do.

Just imagine how accurate Mr Squiggle would be if he didn't rush his tips.

 

[The Swert]

Sydney hawks and cats for the flag

So the Cats get out of jail against the Blues and lose to the Swans by 110 and they are contenders.
And the Dockers get out of jail against the Blues and lose to the Saints and they are not contenders.

Don't worry about the 19% percentage gap or anything. Apparently round 18/19 form decides the cup.

 

[Hawkk]

So the Cats get out of jail against the Blues and lose to the Swans by 110 and they are contenders.
And the Dockers get out of jail against the Blues and lose to the Saints and they are not contenders.

Don't worry about the 19% percentage gap or anything. Apparently round 18/19 form decides the cup.

Geelong v Fremantle next week is huge. Should the Cats win that (and assuming they get up against North, no guarantee) they'll go 2 games behind Geelong (and potentially 2 games and 10 to 15% behind Hawthorn / Sydney)

Geelong only have to finish 2nd or 3rd and they'll run into a Friday Night QF against Hawthorn at the MCG. As much as it pains me to say this but I think they'll fancy their chances in a 2 v 3 final against us!

 

[Roobs321]

Geelong are kind of like Federer at the moment. If they get a sniff and an okay draw come September, they'll be dangerous, but generally not among the 2-3 best sides on a regular basis.

 

[KillaKanga]

Freo should win but I can see Carlton scoring 80 points and that would move Freo left back towards the pack.

I'm tipping 98 - 82


North are screwed. No way we'll keep the Cats to 70 points. I'll be happy if it's under 100, esp at Etihad.

Freo 83 - 78 Carlton

I out squiggled the squiggle on the Carlton score and closer on the total margin. That'l happen only once a round so Roos a monty to win tomorrow night. Right?

 

[atdhe]

Squiggle now predicting a drawn showdown elimination final and a 1 point win to north over Essendon in an elimination final. Hawthorn by 7 points over Sydney in the GF. Interesting it still has Hawthorn smashing Geelong (given recent results anyway - it has Hawthorn by 19 in round 22 and the QF).

 

[Millky95]

Squiggle now predicting a drawn showdown elimination final and a 1 point win to north over Essendon in an elimination final. Hawthorn by 7 points over Sydney in the GF. Interesting it still has Hawthorn smashing Geelong (given recent results anyway - it has Hawthorn by 19 in round 22 and the QF).

Might be due to the program having Geelong as an interstate team so Hawthorn get the homeground in it's calculations

 

[atdhe]

Might be due to the program having Geelong as an interstate team so Hawthorn get the homeground in it's calculations

Do they get 6 or 12 points for that? In any case, if Geelong can win that Hawthorn game there should be a huge turnaround in Geelong's predicted fortunes. Really need to win that Freo game now.

 

[Millky95]

Do they get 6 or 12 points for that? In any case, if Geelong can win that Hawthorn game there should be a huge turnaround in Geelong's predicted fortunes. Really need to win that Freo game now.

If memory serves me correctly, Hawks get +6 in their calcs and Geelong -6 in theirs. 12 overall.

If Geelong beat both Freo and hawthorn they should be favourites or only slightly behind Sydney

 

[atdhe]

If memory serves me correctly, Hawks get +6 in their calcs and Geelong -6 in theirs. 12 overall.

If Geelong beat both Freo and hawthorn they should be favourites or only slightly behind Sydney

Nope, 110 point worse side, flag is yours to lose

 

[Millky95]

Nope, 110 point worse side, flag is yours to lose

Thank you for the confidence. But I was talking about the squiggle's calculations. In general footy world I still can't pick the 4 let alone the premiers

 

[Final Siren]

squiggle has some explaining to do. Not only were Geelong up by 40 at one stage in the final term but they virtually sat back and took all of what North had to offer in the opening 10 mins of the game before Geelong reeled them in and controlled the entire match from that stage on.
Strange.

The squiggle did give North Melbourne a 12-point "interstate" advantage that wasn't quite deserved, since in fact Geelong typically perform better than that in Melbourne. But I don't think that was really the problem with the prediction here, since North usually play Etihad better than usual, and the squiggle ignores that, too. And Geelong won pretty handily, by 32 points. It was just a flat-out wrong tip.

(Although Geelong being up by 40 "at one stage" is of no relevance. Teams often coast a little once they've got a game in the bag. The squiggle attempts to predict actual scores, not woulda/coulda/shoulda scores.)

So very broadly when the squiggle gets it wrong either:

1. The squiggle failed to consider the available data properly; or
   
2. Geelong is getting better and/or North is getting worse.

Both are plausible!

Edit: I guess also you could explain it with inherent randomness. There's no doubt that a good whack of what actually goes down in a game of football is not able to be anticipated, even with perfect information. But in this case that would be an awful lot of randomness.