Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Final Siren]

Finals Week 2, 2014​

Port Adelaide's mighty win in the west drives them firmly into prime squiggle territory. The Power are still slightly behind Sydney in terms of raw rankings, but they sit much closer to the cluster of premiership cups, which mark where flag-winning teams have finished over the last 20 years.

It will take a huge effort from the Power to beat the rested Hawks in Melbourne. If they fall short, they'll start 2015 as one of the squiggle's top-rated teams. And if they win... well, last week I mentioned how the algorithm that has performed best in tipping premiership winners over the last 10-20 years is OFFDEF-75, which cares a lot about form in finals matches. Port are currently OFFDEF-75's #1 team, and will surely stay that way if they beat the Hawks.

The Kangaroos beat Geelong, but since the squiggle expected a nail-biter and that's what we got, they don't move very much. The squiggle has considered North a top-4 team for much of 2013 and 2014, but it isn't very impressed with them at the moment, since it thinks they've had the "soft" side of the finals draw and only barely survived it, beating Essendon (ranked 10th) then Geelong (5th), both at home. It doesn't like that nearly as much as Port annihilating Richmond (7th) then beating Fremantle (3rd) away.

But the squiggle keeps tipping North the wrong way, so now they'll no doubt win the flag.

North aren't actually far from two premiership cups: Geelong 2009 and Adelaide 1997. It's worth nothing, though, that 2009 was an open year, with only Geelong charting near to what seems to be the ideal area. (St. Kilda and Adelaide were both ranked higher in terms of offence + defence, but as ultra-defensive teams, charted out in that lonely white space that has delivered many finals but few flags.)

But the Roos can take heart from Adelaide 1997. That wasn't the year Adelaide won it from outside the top 4 - that came a year later - but the Crows did prove the squiggle wrong by beating a team camped out in the ideal area: St. Kilda. And on the way there, they beat Geelong by 8 points in a semi-final.

 

[Hawkk]

It seems that Hawthorn and Port Adelaide's defence are almost identical and Sydney and North Melbourne's offence are almost identical as well...

 

[djboonie]

Port moves into serious contention...

Their last 3 games against Freo have resulted in them having more scoring shots than Freo, ( 29 v 21, 27 v 25 & 30 v 28) so i rated them a big chance to upset Freo. Their record against the top 8 is excellent having only had less scoring shots in 3 games of their 11 games vs this years top 8 Rnd 3, 17 & 20.
Overall vs top 8 sides avg 27.09 shots vs 24.45

Hawks have had fewer scoring shots 5 times in 11 games against top 8 sides, and avg 26 scoring shots to 25.

I fear the Power...

 

[Stromageddon]

I like how Melbourne is just completely detached from the rest of the other clubs, occupying its own unique space of failure.

 

[Pessimistic]

I like how Melbourne is just completely detached from the rest of the other clubs, occupying its own unique space of failure.

Its sneaking up on the flank !

 

[djboonie]

More data

Port do not over use the footy and appear to be more direct, and get the ball to their forward quicker which would aid their excellent small forwards and also their contested marking targets.

375.82 Possessions per game (4th highest) (disposal efficiency 71.16 16th)
13.92 disposal per scoring shot (1st in comp)
6.73 disposals per i50 (2nd in Comp)
but fall back in terms of converting inside 50s
2.09 inside 50 per scoring shot (6th)
4.45 inside 50 per goal (10th)

Hawks tend to use the footy more and by comparison the stats are slightly higher suggesting a more measured approach to the forward line
395.55 possessions per game (highest of any club) (disposal efficiency 73.87 2nd)
14.15 disposals per scoring shot (3rd)
7.25 disposals per scoring shot (8th)
but once they get it inside 50 are much more potent
1.98 inside 50 per scoring shot (=1st with kangas)
3.41 inside 50 per goal (1st)

 

[Final Siren]

I like how Melbourne is just completely detached from the rest of the other clubs, occupying its own unique space of failure.

After Freo slid leftwards on the weekend, Melbourne and Hawthorn are the only teams to have never crossed squiggles with anyone else.

 

[Stromageddon]

After Freo slid leftwards on the weekend, Melbourne and Hawthorn are the only teams to have never crossed squiggles with anyone else.

Ah, didn't realise Hawthorn was as well. Just assumed Adelaide overlapped somewhere up there.

 

[Final Siren]

Ah, didn't realise Hawthorn was as well. Just assumed Adelaide overlapped somewhere up there.

I had to zoom right in to check, but although Adelaide finished close to where the Hawks began, they never actually crossed.

 

[djpaulydemon]

After Freo slid leftwards on the weekend, Melbourne and Hawthorn are the only teams to have never crossed squiggles with anyone else.

 

[Iron]

I had to zoom right in to check, but although Adelaide finished close to where the Hawks began, they never actually crossed.

I see, so you're saying Adelaide will have the same season in 2015 as the Hawks did this year? You don't need to answer that, it's a rhetorical question. I'm serious. Don't answer that.

 

[Croweater]

After Freo slid leftwards on the weekend, Melbourne and Hawthorn are the only teams to have never crossed squiggles with anyone else.

They'd be prime candidates for a suiggly devil's threesome then.

Hell, Melbourne has already provided the twig and berries.

I know where the door is. I'll let myself out.

 

[Paul Kersey]

Swans as short as $2 in some markets now.

 

[Hawkk]

Swans as short as $2 in some markets now.

I assume that's because they are perceived to have easier run into the Grand Final. Sydney shifted from 2.25 into 2.00 and Hawthorn drifted from 2.25 out to 2.50 on the back of the news Brent Harvey has been suspended for one week.

Thing is partisan support aside, I can see the winner of the Hawthorn / Port Adelaide game going on to win the flag. My reason for this is as follows:

- Up until SF weekend, no top 4 side had beaten another top 4 side away from home
- Since the 2012 Grand Final Hawthorn has won 4 of the last 5 games against the Swans, including the last game at the MCG (by 10 points, without Lake)
- If Port Adelaide roll Hawthorn their surge will be so strong that Final Siren suggests that their OFFDEF-75's ranking will carry them to a premiership

I'm sure a Sydney and North Melbourne fan will respond to this with a reasonable analysis, perhaps its just my gut...

 

[Pessimistic]

They'd be prime candidates for a suiggly devil's threesome then.

Hell, Melbourne has already provided the twig and berries.

I know where the door is. I'll let myself out.

Itd be good to keep the usual bf semi sexual innuendo away from the squiggle thread

Having said that. The 2014 squiggle is a beautiful piece of art

 

[The GOAT]

Thing is partisan support aside, I can see the winner of the Hawthorn / Port Adelaide game going on to win the flag. My reason for this is as follows:

- Up until SF weekend, no top 4 side had beaten another top 4 side away from home
- Since the 2012 Grand Final Hawthorn has won 4 of the last 5 games against the Swans, including the last game at the MCG (by 10 points, without Lake)
- If Port Adelaide roll Hawthorn their surge will be so strong that Final Siren suggests that their OFFDEF-75's ranking will carry them to a premiership

I'm sure a Sydney and North Melbourne fan will respond to this with a reasonable analysis, perhaps its just my gut...

Those are all reasons why Haw/PA will beat Syd, not North. If North can sneak a win this weekend they will go in with a few factors in their favour. They have beaten all the remaining teams and not been beaten by one themselves. They are also the only team of the current top 4 to beat another member of the current top 4 away - having done this twice. They get the home ground advantage if Port win and they have a good recent record against the Hawks - pushing us a couple of times since the '13' game in a period where we have been the best team. It's a big if - winning this weekend - but they'd be a good show in the GF with Harvey back should they pull it off

 

[Hawkk]

Those are all reasons why Haw/PA will beat Syd, not North. If North can sneak a win this weekend they will go in with a few factors in their favour. They have beaten all the remaining teams and not been beaten by one themselves. They are also the only team of the current top 4 to beat another member of the current top 4 away - having done this twice. They get the home ground advantage if Port win and they have a good recent record against the Hawks - pushing us a couple of times since the '13' game in a period where we have been the best team. It's a big if - winning this weekend - but they'd be a good show in the GF with Harvey back should they pull it off

That's very true. This is the reason why I'd rather play Sydney in the final than North

...that and the fact that we haven't beaten them in a final since 1982 and they have become something of a September bogey team for us!

 

[Final Siren]

The history is pretty compelling: even if Port and North upset the odds this weekend, there's a massive weighting in favour of QF losers - especially since these are games between teams that finished as close as 4th and 5th! All things being equal, you'd expect 5th to beat 4th an awful lot more than has actually occurred.

Despite Port and North sending HOMER to 4-2 in this year's finals series, it's still the best algorithm for finals since 2000, going 93-31 at 75.0%.

Edit: Actually it's 100-33 at 75.2% - I accidentally skipped 2000. This is counting draws as correct tips.

 

[Hawkk]

Despite Port and North sending HOMER to 4-2 in this year's finals series, it's still the best algorithm for finals since 2000, going 93-31 at 75.0%.

Not including the Grand Final the nominal home side (i.e. the higher ranked) has beaten the 'away' side on the following occasions...

2014 - 2/6
2013 - 3/8
2012 - 2/8
2011 - 1/8
2010 - 1/8
2009 - 0/8
2008 - 1/8
2007 - 1/8
2006 - 4/8
2005 - 3/8
2004 - 1/8
2003 - 3/8
2002 - 1/8
2001 - 1/8
2000 - 2/8

On average the nominal away side gets up in 1.83 of the 8 games under the current finals configuration. More interestingly, in 21 of the 56 week 1 finals (or 1.5 out of 4 games) the away side has gotten up and won the QF final. In many ways the QF's sets up the whole finals series (usually) for the winner

 

[Final Siren]

I see, so you're saying Adelaide will have the same season in 2015 as the Hawks did this year? You don't need to answer that, it's a rhetorical question. I'm serious. Don't answer that.

I can't help it. Adelaide actually finished 2013 in a small blaze of glory, too, with a Round 23 smashing of the Eagles in Perth pushing the Crows into a respectable finishing place on the squiggle, and therefore a good 2014 starting position.

But it only took the first three rounds of 2014 to send them to the back of the pack, including falling behind two teams that had awful ends to 2013: Essendon and West Coast.

In fact, after Round 3, teams were reasonably well-sorted on the squiggle compared to their final positions, with all of the top 6 right, albeit in the wrong order:

Squiggle Rank after Round 3, 2014
1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Port Adelaide
5. North Melbourne
6. Sydney
7. Collingwood
8. Richmond
9. Essendon
10. West Coast
11. Adelaide
12. Carlton
13. Gold Coast
14. Brisbane Lions
15. St Kilda
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Greater Western Sydney
18. Melbourne

It's not usually so accurate after only 3 games, though. And in fact after Round 4, the Swans slipped all the way down to 10th on the back of a spanking at home from North Melbourne. Which of course the squiggle did not tip.

 

[Hawkk]

I can't help it. Adelaide actually finished 2013 in a small blaze of glory, too, with a Round 23 smashing of the Eagles in Perth pushing the Crows into a respectable finishing place on the squiggle, and therefore a good 2014 starting position.

But it only took the first three rounds of 2014 to send them to the back of the pack, including falling behind two teams that had awful ends to 2013: Essendon and West Coast.

In fact, after Round 3, teams were reasonably well-sorted on the squiggle compared to their final positions, with all of the top 6 right, albeit in the wrong order:

Squiggle Rank after Round 3, 2014
1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Port Adelaide
5. North Melbourne
6. Sydney
7. Collingwood
8. Richmond
9. Essendon
10. West Coast
11. Adelaide
12. Carlton
13. Gold Coast
14. Brisbane Lions
15. St Kilda
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Greater Western Sydney
18. Melbourne

It's not usually so accurate after only 3 games, though. And in fact after Round 4, the Swans slipped all the way down to 10th on the back of a spanking at home from North Melbourne. Which of course the squiggle did not tip.

You're starting to veer into Robby Power Rankings territory here and from there, there is no coming back...

 

[Final Siren]

Not including the Grand Final the nominal home side (i.e. the higher ranked) has beaten the 'away' side on the following occasions...

2014 - 2/6
2013 - 3/8
2012 - 2/8
2011 - 1/8
2010 - 1/8
2009 - 0/8
2008 - 1/8
2007 - 1/8
2006 - 3/8
2005 - 3/8
2004 - 2/8
2003 - 3/8
2002 - 1/8
2001 - 1/8
2000 - 2/8

On average the nominal away side gets up in 1.83 of the 8 games under the current finals configuration. More interestingly, in 21 of the 56 week 1 finals (or 1.5 out of 4 games) the away side has gotten up and won the QF final. In many ways the QF's sets up the whole finals series (usually) for the winner

I have different numbers than you for 2004 and 2006. In 2004, I have only one game where the nominal home team didn't win: Essendon (8th) beating Melbourne (5th) in an EF. In 2006 I have four "home upsets," three coming in the first week of finals (all home teams lost except Adelaide) and another in a prelim (Adelaide losing to West Coast).

 

[Hawkk]

I have different numbers than you for 2004 and 2006. In 2004, I have only one game where the nominal home team didn't win: Essendon (8th) beating Melbourne (5th) in an EF. In 2006 I have four "home upsets," three coming in the first week of finals (all home teams lost except Adelaide) and another in a prelim (Adelaide losing to West Coast).

Spot on. Oversight by me...

 

[Paul Kersey]

I assume that's because they are perceived to have easier run into the Grand Final. Sydney shifted from 2.25 into 2.00 and Hawthorn drifted from 2.25 out to 2.50 on the back of the news Brent Harvey has been suspended for one week.

Thing is partisan support aside, I can see the winner of the Hawthorn / Port Adelaide game going on to win the flag. My reason for this is as follows:

- Up until SF weekend, no top 4 side had beaten another top 4 side away from home
- Since the 2012 Grand Final Hawthorn has won 4 of the last 5 games against the Swans, including the last game at the MCG (by 10 points, without Lake)
- If Port Adelaide roll Hawthorn their surge will be so strong that Final Siren suggests that their OFFDEF-75's ranking will carry them to a premiership

I'm sure a Sydney and North Melbourne fan will respond to this with a reasonable analysis, perhaps its just my gut...

Agreed - think the rain in the NSW match will also play a factor.

 

[Croweater]

Itd be good to keep the usual bf semi sexual innuendo away from the squiggle thread

Having said that. The 2014 squiggle is a beautiful piece of art

The squiggle is not sacrosanct to sexual innuendo. Especially considering its propensity for drawing particular sexual organs.

You're just a fuddy duddy.