After, and drawn freehand
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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After, and drawn freehand
- Aug 18, 2009
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Without the prelims, OFFDEF-75 would be tipping Sydney by 2 points rather than 10.
Of course there's definitely a case for Hawthorn to beat Sydney, since all the algorithms do is say which is more likely! Even if they have everything figured out exactly right you'd still expect upsets, because football cannot be perfectly predicted.
Agreed. I must say that a Sydney 10 point advantage is about how I'd frame this Grand Final anyway.
Hypothetically if Port Adelaide had played Sydney in the GF (without the Preliminary Final results) how would they have fared? I understand its all hypotheticals but OFFDEF-75 must have fallen in love with Sydney's performance against North Melbourne!
- Aug 18, 2009
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If the prelims hadn't happened, it's Port over Sydney by 9.
OFFDEF-75 did like the Sydney prelim quite a lot, yeah. It has North and Geelong around the same place (like the main squiggle), so what it's seeing is Hawthorn beating one of those by 36 while Sydney beat the other by 71.
Hawthorn would have gotten a lot of credit for stopping Port with prejudice, since Port were very highly rated, but a 3-pt win just wasn't enough.
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Our chance of squiggle victory was ****ed as soon as Brad Hill allowed the ball to go between his legs with 8 minutes left and allowed the Power to believe again
That said a 5 or 6 goal victory wouldn't have done the Power justice given they dominated us in all the stats that mattered.
Jordan Lewis going off at 3.4 time has probably cost us the chance of the 2014 Squiggle Cup. Devastating...
Final Siren,
Just out of curiosity how did OFFDEF-75 mark down the 2007 Grand Final, which has since gone down as one the most infamous GF's of all time. I ask you this for a couple of reasons -:
- Port were in hot, hot, hot form leading up to the 2007 finals series (rolling Hawthorn in Tasmania, Geelong at Kardina Park and Fremantle in Adelaide in successive weeks)
- Geelong and Port had very similar QF's and PF's. Geelong rolled North by 106 points before squaring off in the epic PF against Collingwood, seeing them off by 5 points. Port Adelaide had their own epic against West Coast (3 points) before doing a demolition job on North (87 points)
Surely a case of absolutely everything going wrong for Port, everything going right for Geelong and the rest is history. That game went along way to create the Geelong aura which has carried through until today and it also led to the collapse of Port Adelaide in 2008-2012
What result in the GF would see Hawks take out the 2014 Squiggle?
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- Jan 11, 2003
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We weren't underdogs in 2005, the grand final was between 2nd and 3rd, the odds were roughly 50/50 I recall. The Eagles were flying early in the year but got a bit wobbly after we beat them late in the H&A season at the SCG.
Not surprised the squiggle tipped the Weagles in 2006 as they finished minor premiers while we only snuck into 4th in the last round of the season.
2012 I'm guessing the squiggle would have liked our form against the Hawks earlier in the year, beat them by over 6 goals in Launceston (a venue where they rarely lose) and only lost narrowly to them at the SCG after letting a 6-goal lead slip.
We beat Adelaide convincingly away, then Collingwood convincingly at home. Hawthorn beat the Pies convincingly, but just scraped over the line against Adelaide. I think our form was better for larger parts of the season, but the Hawks did come home with a wet sail, beating up on every team outside of the top 8. They had a dream run where they played 5 of the bottom 6 in a row or something, winning by huge margins.
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Couldn't be further from the truth.
The Market echoes the Squiggle as it's that accurate it's basing everything off the squiggle now!
- Jun 21, 2009
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Was going to say that
People seem to forget that in 2012 the Swans were above the Hawks on the ladder for most of the year, and top of the ladder for most of the second half of the season. We only scraped in front of them on the ladder with a tight win over them in Round 22. And they would have finished on equal wins if they hadn't tanked the last game of the year. Hell, if the ball had bounced the other way late in Round 22 they could have finished 2 games clear of us on top.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Excellent question. They need to win by about 26 points.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Geelong and Port do get close after the prelims, and OFFDEF-75 only tips the Cats by 5 points for the Grand Final. (Not often I see "RIGHT +/- 114.0 points" in the logs.) They had a huge buffer that was able to soak up the prelim movement.
That GF never should have been more than a 2-3 goal Grand Final
You have some Grand Final's where there is a sense of inevitability about the outcome and that wasn't one of them.
- Apr 8, 2006
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I'm going against the squiggle this week. No offence Final Siren - I usually believe in it, just not this week.
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- May 11, 2008
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Just go with the Squiggle he's been posting every week. It still tips us for the win even if it's only due to being at the G.
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- Apr 8, 2006
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Would it be 75% if we'd beaten Port by 36pts?
Fair to say the bookies wouldn't be running with 1.65 to 2.35 if we held on by 6 goals (likely 1.90 each).
That said I'm not convinced that you can just disregard the final 6 minutes of football. The way we played that last 10 minutes was deplorable (from the Bradley Hill squib forward). If we repeat that process this week, we'll deservedly get smacked by 10 goals and the Swans will salute #6 as rightful premiers. We deserve to go in underdogs on that basis alone.
The PA result is offset by our record at the MCG this season (12-1) and the fact we defeated the Swans (2-1 at the MCG) the last time we played them (and 4 of the last 5 times). If not for our record against Sydney, I don't think we'd touch $3.00 against a side that tour apart North Melbourne with ease...
90-80 (and a 1.70 to 2.20 market) is probably a fair reflection on where we sit at the moment, if we both play at our absolute potential its probably 50/50 but given the Swans superior form and fitness its probably a 55/45 game, Swans way.
That said I thought Hawthorn V Port Adelaide and Sydney V North Melbourne were 55/45 and 60/40 games and look how they turned out!
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- Apr 8, 2006
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Does Squiggle track productivity at work in GF week?
- May 4, 2013
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If Hawthorn had have won by what the squiggle predicted, would Sydney be only favourites by 2 points?
No. Because the Squiggle predicted that the Swans would only win by 26 points.
Now if Hawthorn had won by 6 goals (as what was on the cards when Lobbe went down with 8 minutes left) then the squiggle would be very interesting given that using OFFDEF-75 Port Adelaide were ahead of Sydney and Hawthorn in the lead up to Preliminary Final weekend
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