Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Richo83]

It's really the opposite; a comment on Ross Lyon teams, rather than Freo in particular. Or low-scoring, ultra-defensive teams in general. I see that as a high-risk strategy because if you like to win 10 goals to 8, it only takes a bad five minutes to ruin your day. As opposed to the Hawthorn model where they just keep attacking and figure at some point you won't be able to keep up with them.

Also, if you're low-scoring and the opposition unlocks your defense, you are truly ******.

Obviously Ross Lyon has coached sides to within a bee's dick of a flag on multiple occasions. But I just feel it's a relatively brittle strategy. Pure opinion, though, and you're right, I haven't watched Freo much this year.

Not sure about that. Contested defensive sides usually do well in grand finals, and often it's the free flowing attacking sides which struggle. If Hawthorn's forwardline doesn't fire, if it decides to keep missing infront of goal, it may struggle. Fremantle will give up more inside 50s, but Hawthorn will need to take their chances. They also need to tighten up their defense, even with Lake in there, they gave up 22 scoring shots from just 42 entries. If Geelong had a typical attacking run, they would've won.

 

[Oneiros]

As per my post above. Crowd support is negligible for all fixtures, its the ground dimensions that makes all the difference

Evidently the mass corporate attendees make up about 32,000 of the 100,000 crowd. Upwards of 50% (and probably 60%) of attendees at GF's are supporters from either club when you take into consideration MCC and AFL members allocations.

Wouldn't be more than 50% and probably not more than 40k - 15k to each club members, and some part of the MCC and AFL allocations, but the demand by neutrals is very fierce.

And just to venture into the anecdotal, but most Victorian supporters seem very loathe to cheer for another Melbourne-based team on GF day.

As for ground dimensions, Fremantle plays only a few times at MCG but numerous times a year at Docklands, where the only notable difference in dimensions is the width, but its only a <10% difference. It seems to be drawing a long bow to ascribe a significant advantage here.

 

[Hawkk]

Wouldn't be more than 50% and probably not more than 40k - 15k to each club members, and some part of the MCC and AFL allocations, but the demand by neutrals is very fierce.

And just to venture into the anecdotal, but most Victorian supporters seem very loathe to cheer for another Melbourne-based team on GF day.

Hawthorn have 4,000 AFL Members and upwards of 10,000 MCC members. Given AFL Silver Members tickets were available to purchase to the reserve by Wednesday last year, I'd say any Hawthorn AFL member that wanted to go to the Grand Final will get a ticket. Last year the MCC opened up the reserve for restricted members, again if they were willing to do that for a Hawthorn-Sydney final they'll definitely do it for this final. If any Hawthorn supporting MCC member is keen to go to the GF they'll get a seat. Add in corporate packages sold by AFL clubs (approx. 600 per club), AFL Centre Square and Medallion Club (5,000) and the like and the crowd split will likely by 30-35k Haw/15-20k Frem, the rest neutral. That's the way it appeared last year...

For what its worth, if last year was any indication 75% of neutrals will probably go for Fremantle so that negates the crowd impact considerably anyway...

As for ground dimensions, Fremantle plays only a few times at MCG but numerous times a year at Docklands, where the only notable difference in dimensions is the width, but its only a <10% difference. It seems to be drawing a long bow to ascribe a significant advantage here.

The width difference is considerable, particularly when Fremantle rely on pressing the ground and Hawthorn's bread and butter is pinpointing players on the outside.

What I'm most interested in seeing is the Inside 50 count, Fremantle will favour locking the game through the midfield and restricting Hawthorn's entry into the Inside 50 (we average 55/60 a match). Hawthorn will look to keep the game open and try to capitalise on its forward forays. This arm wrestle will probably be the most interested of the match IMO.

I'm not saying that the ground difference is the be all and end all but its a factor. Like the Dockers the Swans had a far from ideal record at the MCG and they won the GF last year.

If I was framing a market for this match I'd post 1.70/2.10 Hawthorn way, at 1.60/2.30 there is massive money to be had for Fremantle!

 

[The Goon]

Final Siren

For the second year in a running you have added the most interesting statistical thread to this site. Kudos to you sir.

Chief surely a complementary platinum membership and cool badge are in order?????

 

[djboonie]

Freo are the real deal. To generate 29 scoring shots from 42 inside 50's is sensational. That to me says that they aren't just a defensive side. Take a look at their scoring shots over the last few weeks...

31
37
33
29
11
27

Avg 28 scoring shots whilst restricting their opposition to

20
14
13
15
32
27

Avg 20.2

 

[clogged]

yeah... what do you mean though?

I don't think he knows

 

[clogged]

A ground that is almost identical to Subiaco in dimensions, in a game where you allowed Geelong to have 27 scoring shots?

Despite winning the clearances by a margin of 43-22 you lost the inside 50 count 55-51 (no Hawkins). That said it was an admirable performance made even sweeter by the Cats kicking 9-18 for the day.

Like I said, home crowd advantage is largely over stated (though we'll probably have 30/35k supporters in the stadium Dockers 15/20k and the rest neutral) but familiarity with ground size plays an enormous role...particularly when such a large portion of Fremantle's game plan revolves around blocking and pressing the middle of largely narrow grounds.

In all the hype of the 2012 Grand Final its often forgotten that Hawthorn lost that game by 10 points, won the inside 50 count 61-43 and had 25 shots on goal to 21 despite Sydney landing something in the vicinity of 110 tackles. What relevance does that have to Saturday?

Sydney played the template game for a club like Fremantle to beat Hawthorn (that is a club without the offensive weapons of Geelong). Like Sydney, Fremantle must maximise its opportunities on goal (the Swans kicked 14-7, we kicked 11-15) and it must set a benchmark of 110 to 120 tackles for the game (evidently they had 68 tackles against Geelong and 75 against a depleted Swans outfit). The weather could play a role as well, at this stage the forecast is for a Shower or Two on Saturday...if the weather turns decidedly nasty (like last year) this could play into the Dockers hands like it did with the Swans last year.

Defensive pressure is incredibly important but the Dockers will probably need to kick 14-15 goals to win the match. That's my (biased) spin on it anyway

Geez dude, you almost sound like you are trying to convice yourself.

The venue will have nothing to do with the result. Let's not forget, non-Vic clubs have an excellent record against Vic clubs in grand finals. If Hawthorn win, it will because you are better than Freo, and if not, vice versa.

 

[The Speaker]

Freo are the real deal. To generate 29 scoring shots from 42 inside 50's is sensational. That to me says that they aren't just a defensive side. Take a look at their scoring shots over the last few weeks...

31
37
33
29
11
27

Avg 28 scoring shots whilst restricting their opposition to

20
14
13
15
32
27

Avg 20.2

Remove the rogue Saints game and it becomes 33.6 and 17.8.

 

[clogged]

Another interesting statistic is the Inside 50's across the Qualifying Finals/Preliminary Finals...

Hawthorn V Sydney: We won the Inside 50's 54-38
Geelong v Fremantle: Geelong won the Inside 50's 55-51

Hawthorn V Geelong: We won the Inside 50's 64-42
Fremantle V Sydney: Fremantle won the Inside 50's 42-39

Unless something dramatic occurs you'd expect Hawthorn to win the Inside 50's about 50/55 to 40/45. Whether or not Hawthorn's forward line functions or more to the point how the Fremantle backline functions could well determine the location of the premiership. Last year we won the Inside 50's 63-42 but didn't capitalise on our opportunities (we had 4 more scoring shots but tellingly our Inside 50/Goal ratio was 5.72 to Sydney's 3.07)

Interesting, hardly relevant though.

In last year's finals, Sydney lost the inside 50s against Adelaide 37-59 and won by 29 points. Meanwhile Hawthorn won the inside 50s against Adelaide 64-38 and only beat Adelaide by 5 points.

Maybe this game the inside 50 differential from Hawthorn will yield a big score. But it is odd that over two finals series such a large disparity from Hawthorn in getting the ball inside 50 has not been reflected in the score.

 

[RuFiO]

How's Collingwood's squiggly line looking?

 

[djboonie]

Interesting, hardly relevant though.

In last year's finals, Sydney lost the inside 50s against Adelaide 37-59 and won by 29 points. Meanwhile Hawthorn won the inside 50s against Adelaide 64-38 and only beat Adelaide by 5 points.

Maybe this game the inside 50 differential from Hawthorn will yield a big score. But it is odd that over two finals series such a large disparity from Hawthorn in getting the ball inside 50 has not been reflected in the score.

The pressure of finals tolls on some harder than others... Again on Friday night our kicking yips were exposed. It's game on! Freo are THE best pressure team in 2013, can the Hawks hold it together mentally?

Grand Final day can throw up some 'odd' results when you compare it to the year and who is the 'best' side, but reality is that the last Saturday in Septmeber is a 2 horse race, with no need to get up off the canvas the following week. Miss your opportunities on that one day, and you don't get another shot.

 

[Hawkk]

I agree. But more than anything else that pointed to the significant issues Hawthorn had in last years finals series... our forward line was both inaccurate (between both games our forward entries yielded 56 scoring shots for 42% accuracy) and ineffective in both the Preliminary Final and Grand Final.

That said, like last year we have shown concerning signs with an inaccurate display in the Preliminary Final...

 

[Hawkk]

The pressure of finals tolls on some harder than others... Again on Friday night our kicking yips were exposed. It's game on! Freo are THE best pressure team in 2013, can the Hawks hold it together mentally?

Grand Final day can throw up some 'odd' results when you compare it to the year and who is the 'best' side, but reality is that the last Saturday in Septmeber is a 2 horse race, with no need to get up off the canvas the following week. Miss your opportunities on that one day, and you don't get another shot.

Agree.

We kick with 42% accuracy (like in the '12 PF/GF and '13 PF) and we will likely lose. That said based on the finals to date we are likely to have plenty of opportunities, but if we don't take them Fremantle are more than good enough to make us pay badly...

This Grand Final is game on, the odds really should 1.70/2.10 (or 55/45)

 

[Hawkk]

Geez dude, you almost sound like you are trying to convice yourself.

The venue will have nothing to do with the result. Let's not forget, non-Vic clubs have an excellent record against Vic clubs in grand finals. If Hawthorn win, it will because you are better than Freo, and if not, vice versa.

Agree, the best team on the day will win regardless of the venue.

That said in much the same way that the Dockers would have an advantage playing a final at Subiaco I'd argue that an MCG final is of some advantage to Hawthorn. Just how much of an advantage that is would be minimal.

 

[clogged]

Agree, the best team on the day will win regardless of the venue.

That said in much the same way that the Dockers would have an advantage playing a final at Subiaco I'd argue that an MCG final is of some advantage to Hawthorn. Just how much of an advantage that is would be minimal.

I don't think the dimensions matter. It can go both ways - at the MCG, if pressured with the ball, the Hawks have more space in which to work and get the ball free. However the width of the ground means the safety of boundary when pressured is just that much further away, and that if Fremantle force the turnover, they have more room in which to create a score.

 

[Pessimistic]

Freo fans have filled their allocation and after forking out thousands more than victorians the be here for the first time they will be as loud as possible

Hawks fans will fire up after the umpires rape us two or three times. Thats a good way to get the neutrals onside too

 

[Hawkk]

I don't think the dimensions matter. It can go both ways - at the MCG, if pressured with the ball, the Hawks have more space in which to work and get the ball free. However the width of the ground means the safety of boundary when pressured is just that much further away, and that if Fremantle force the turnover, they have more room in which to create a score.

Agree. But if you're going to enforce a manic press, its far better to play on a more narrow field. For Hawthorn the more open space, the better as we try and pinpoint disposal through the congestion.

If the finals series is anything to go by we're likely going to get 50/55 Inside 50's for the game. If we do, it'll come down to our disposal inside forward 50 and execution by forwards. Subsequently given McPharlin's niggles I wanted by adverse to starting Franklin on the wing and mixing and matching between a small and town forward line.

I can't wait for Saturday, it truly is a case of East V West, Offence V Defence.

 

[Final Siren]

Not sure about that. Contested defensive sides usually do well in grand finals, and often it's the free flowing attacking sides which struggle. If Hawthorn's forwardline doesn't fire, if it decides to keep missing infront of goal, it may struggle. Fremantle will give up more inside 50s, but Hawthorn will need to take their chances. They also need to tighten up their defense, even with Lake in there, they gave up 22 scoring shots from just 42 entries. If Geelong had a typical attacking run, they would've won.

That's the accepted wisdom, for sure, but I'm not sure how convincing the evidence is. I had a quick poke around earlier in the thread and there are quite a few counter-examples. Just recently we've had 2011's Geelong defeating Collingwood, and Ross Lyon's ultra-defensive 2009 & 2010 St Kilda teams losing both times.

 

[clogged]

That's the accepted wisdom, for sure, but I'm not sure how convincing the evidence is. I had a quick poke around earlier in the thread and there are quite a few counter-examples. Just recently we've had 2011's Geelong defeating Collingwood, and Ross Lyon's ultra-defensive 2009 & 2010 St Kilda teams losing both times.

Difference is that neither Collingwood nor Geelong were free-flowing.

In fact Collingwood of 2010-2011 were as defensive as St Kilda 2009-2010 but had created more scoring opportunities.

 

[Hawkk]

Difference is that neither Collingwood nor Geelong were free-flowing.

In fact Collingwood of 2010-2011 were as defensive as St Kilda 2009-2010 but had created more scoring opportunities.

Geelong 2011 were one of the most free flowing, free wheeling teams of our generation...

 

[clogged]

Geelong 2011 were one of the most free flowing, free wheeling teams of our generation...

For a free wheeling side they sure conceded very few points. They conceded a full 240 points less than Hawthorn have this year (nearly two goals per game). Or to emphasise the point, only 100 points more than the uber defensive Freo of 2013.

They were far closer to 2013 Freo defensively than they were 2013 Hawthorn.

 

[Final Siren]

Difference is that neither Collingwood nor Geelong were free-flowing.

In fact Collingwood of 2010-2011 were as defensive as St Kilda 2009-2010 but had created more scoring opportunities.

Geelong of 2011 were exceptionally free-flowing, recording a string of huge scores on their way to defeating the #1 defensive team in Collingwood. I agree that 2010 is kind of a wash, but 2009 saw another very strong defensive team lose to a high-scoring one.

 

[Hawkk]

For a free wheeling side they sure conceded very few points. They conceded a full 240 points less than Hawthorn have this year (nearly two goals per game). Or to emphasise the point, only 100 points more than the uber defensive Freo of 2013.

They were far closer to 2013 Freo defensively than they were 2013 Hawthorn.

They were far, far, far more closer to the 2013 Hawthorn from an offensive point of view than they were 2013 Fremantle.

Evidently Hawthorn 2011 were a better defensive unit as well (by the figures), they'd probably roll Hawthorn 2013 as well

 

[clogged]

Geelong of 2011 were exceptionally free-flowing, recording a string of huge scores on their way to defeating the #1 defensive team in Collingwood. I agree that 2010 is kind of a wash, but 2009 saw another very strong defensive team lose to a high-scoring one.

How much more defensive was Collingwood truly? They only conceded ~70 points fewer than Geelong for the year in the H&A. They may have been a highly defensive side, but that doesn't mean Geelong lacked defensive accountability.

 

[Hawkk]

How much more defensive was Collingwood truly? They only conceded ~70 points fewer than Geelong for the year in the H&A. They may have been a highly defensive side, but that doesn't mean Geelong lacked defensive accountability.

Has a club ever won the premiership with an offense outside the top 8 clubs?