Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[The Passenger]

Simply not true. See Geelong 1992 or North Melbourne this year.

i'm not sure i follow. both are/were very attacking teams.

 

[barmy44]

i'm not sure i follow. both are/were very attacking teams.

hes saying that while they scored heavily, they also conceded heavily as well.

 

[clogged]

i'm not sure i follow. both are/were very attacking teams.

Just because a team is generating huge scores at one end does not prevent their opposition from doing the same. The idea that Geelong of 2011 or other sides were naturally defensive as a consequence of their ability to score heavily is a furphy. Previous Geelong sides have put paid to that notion, as have other sides in the recent era.

 

[The Passenger]

hes saying that while they scored heavily, they also conceded heavily as well.

i wouldn't say either conceded particularly heavily. both in the better half of the ladder for points conceded.

but reading through my post i guess the retort was more aimed at "if a team is scoring heavily they aren't conceding points", which i didn't think would be taken literally to mean any time a team scores heavily they won't be conceding.

 

[The Passenger]

Just because a team is generating huge scores at one end does not prevent their opposition from doing the same.

As said I didn't think it would be taken as a literal sweeping statement that any high scoring team won't be conceding scores.

was more just pointing out i have found a much better indicator a team/coaches game style as either attacking/defensive/neutral is total points (both teams) per game.

 

[barmy44]

Just because a team is generating huge scores at one end does not prevent their opposition from doing the same. The idea that Geelong of 2011 or other sides were naturally defensive as a consequence of their ability to score heavily is a furphy. Previous Geelong sides have put paid to that notion, as have other sides in the recent era.

i see what you are saying... geelong had a brilliant defence, they didnt just keep scores to low totals because we were rushing the ball forward all the time. sides that are pure attack will always concede on the counter, regardless of how much they themselves score.

geelong '11 were a side that could both score and defend, geelong '92 were all out attack, and far more vulnerable to leaking goals, similar to north this year.

 

[barmy44]

i wouldn't say either conceded particularly heavily. both in the better half of the ladder for points conceded.

but reading through my post i guess the retort was more aimed at "if a team is scoring heavily they aren't conceding points", which i didn't think would be taken literally to mean any time a team scores heavily they won't be conceding.

yeah, its a fairly confused discussion, kind of hard to follow... i think put simply there are some all out attack teams that are also excellent defensively, and then some that arent.

 

[clogged]

As said I didn't think it would be taken as a literal sweeping statement that any high scoring team won't be conceding scores.

was more just pointing out i have found a much better indicator a team/coaches game style as either attacking/defensive/neutral is total points (both teams) per game.

Yes, but a high total does not necessarily mean that a side is all attack with no defence. A side like Geelong 2011 could have a cumulative score of 4200, same as North this year, but that does not mean the style is the same.

The great Geelong sides were excellent defensively. As good as any other side of the recent era. They weren't a purely attacking team.

 

[The Passenger]

and gws games totalled over 200/game, but i wouldn't say they are particularly attacking, just shit and unable to stop the run on off opposition.

it's not a definitive guide, just something i have found better than looking at, rather than looking at for and against separately.

 

[clogged]

and gws games totalled over 200/game, but i wouldn't say they are particularly attacking, just shit and unable to stop the run on off opposition.

it's not a definitive guide, just something i have found better than looking at, rather than looking at for and against separately.

We're talking about finals teams here, not the outliers at the bottom.

No one disputes that Fremantle is a defensive team. The argument is when a highly defensive team meets a highly attacking team, who is more likely to win in a grand final.

The 'accepted' wisdom is that the defensive side does, however there are counter examples as recent as 2011. My issue is that I don't accept sides like Geelong in 2011 as teams that lacked defence, or were defensively lesser than sides than Collingwood or St Kilda. The gulf between that grouping is not as large as say West Coast and Geelong of the 90s. Or arguably as big as Hawthorn and Fremantle of 2013.

The question then becomes whether Hawthorn lack defensively and whether Fremantle have the ability to exploit it.

 

[barmy44]

The question then becomes whether Hawthorn lack defensively and whether Fremantle have the ability to exploit it.

i cant wait to find out, i think it will be an excellent match.

best of luck to your guys!

 

[Final Siren]

You would also need to factor in the higher scores they were able to kick by having a higher proportion of games against lower ranked teams.

I'm not sure that makes a huge difference, but if you're adjusting for opposition, what you really want to look at is how defensive their opponents were, not just where they sat on the ladder. Freo did have a relatively soft draw, but playing two games against Adelaide (11th), for example, doesn't mean they had easy scoring opportunities, because Adelaide is above average defensively. (I have the Crows 6th-ish for defence; they are 7th for fewest Points Against.)

Then there's how Freo sent their B team to their "easiest" double game, against St Kilda, and lost it 112-41... I just don't think Freo's draw was a leg-up to their scoring.

Anyway, clearly Hawthorn is well ahead of Freo in attack; my point is just that Freo is close enough to a whole bunch of other teams to make it misleading to say their attack is only 12th best. "12th best" implies that it's significantly below average, when in fact it's not far off 4th or 5th best.

Squiggles aside, just looking at raw Points For during the H&A season, Freo is only 119 points short of 5th place. That is a reasonable but not huge margin. It's about the same as the gap between 12th and 13th, and between 1st and 2nd.

Below: Hawthorn in Band 1, Geelong and North in Band 2, and Freo + others in Band 3.

 

[Packedlunch]

Fair enough. You would also have to agree then that Freo are ony 100 odd points off 14th worst offense in the league. I would admit they are only 100 odd points of 5th as well. Having a pretty soft draw must help in these numbers though. Less scores against and more points for. It would be an interesting ladder to list teams against just the top 6 or 8. So many vagaries on the draw to simply and against a deciding factor. Anyway that aside we have a very good offensive team who is also quite good at defence against a very good defensive team who is quite good at offence against lower ranked teams. Cant wait to see how this plays out.

 

[clogged]

Fair enough. You would also have to agree then that Freo are ony 100 odd points off 14th worst offense in the league. I would admit they are only 100 odd points of 5th as well. Having a pretty soft draw must help in these numbers though. Less scores against and more points for. It would be an interesting ladder to list teams against just the top 6 or 8. So many vagaries on the draw to simply and against a deciding factor. Anyway that aside we have a very good offensive team who is also quite good at defence against a very good defensive team who is quite good at offence against lower ranked teams. Cant wait to see how this plays out.

You do realise that the squiggly line model controls for easiness of draw?

 

[Packedlunch]

You do realise that the squiggly line model controls for easiness of draw?

Apologies maybe not right across the squiggly line model. Not sure the post I replied to needs me to have. The post suggested Freo weren't essentiallythe 4th/5th best attack in the league. I don't think that stacks up given the teams they played and raw figures suggest that also aren't far off 14th worst in the league. Happy to be proven wrong. actually not that happy...

 

[utility]

Evidently Hawthorn's squiggle has converged into a mix of North Melbourne 1999 and Brisbane 2001. As for Fremantle???

Hawks are a lot like North of '99. Stuffed up the previous year's GF after winning the minor premiership, won most of their H&A games with many won unconvincingly, high-scoring with genuine match winners, physically mature with a bit of mongrel, but capable of leaking goals at the other end, and hard arse coaches who were competent but average players. Redemption is a big motivator.

Only I'd rate Freo more highly than Carlton of '99. North were almost dead certainties going into that GF. Not the case this week for Hawthorn.

Freo remind me of Sydney in '05 but with a touch more flair. Both teams had ruckmen who impose themselves on the game, one gun tall forward, and a well developed defensive-minded midfield, and smarmy bastards for coaches.

My gut says Freo are in better shape but the pain of last year may be the edge to get the Hawks over the line.

 

[Pessimistic]

The best thing about the squiggles is it shows how freo have improved over the year where hawthosn ahve been super consistent

Hawthorn 78 seems the most similar squiggle to hawthorn 2013

 

[Hawkk]

Hawks are a lot like North of '99. Stuffed up the previous year's GF after winning the minor premiership, won most of their H&A games with many won unconvincingly, high-scoring with genuine match winners, physically mature with a bit of mongrel, but capable of leaking goals at the other end, and hard arse coaches who were competent but average players. Redemption is a big motivator.

Only I'd rate Freo more highly than Carlton of '99. North were almost dead certainties going into that GF. Not the case this week for Hawthorn.

Freo remind me of Sydney in '05 but with a touch more flair. Both teams had ruckmen who impose themselves on the game, one gun tall forward, and a well developed defensive-minded midfield, and smarmy bastards for coaches.

My gut says Freo are in better shape but the pain of last year may be the edge to get the Hawks over the line.

I reckon this is spot on. The only issue with the North Melbourne comparison was that Hawthorn's percentage was much stronger than North (135.7% to 115.7%) after the home and away season and was actually closer to Brisbane Lions of 2001 (127.6%)

I understand the competition in 1999 was probably stronger than it is today but Hawthorn's position on the grid is bizarre given the strength of its percentage. What's more our position has barely moved all season!

I'm taking heart from the fact that we are probably closer to the mode of premierships than what Fremantle is.

In each of the three years we've made it our squiggle has been in and around the same area, last year we were slightly more attacking while the Dockers are slightly more defensive than the Swans this season...

All should be revealed this Saturday

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawks are a lot like North of '99. Stuffed up the previous year's GF after winning the minor premiership, won most of their H&A games with many won unconvincingly, high-scoring with genuine match winners, physically mature with a bit of mongrel, but capable of leaking goals at the other end, and hard arse coaches who were competent but average players. Redemption is a big motivator.

Only I'd rate Freo more highly than Carlton of '99. North were almost dead certainties going into that GF. Not the case this week for Hawthorn.

Freo remind me of Sydney in '05 but with a touch more flair. Both teams had ruckmen who impose themselves on the game, one gun tall forward, and a well developed defensive-minded midfield, and smarmy bastards for coaches.

My gut says Freo are in better shape but the pain of last year may be the edge to get the Hawks over the line.

For mine the thing about sydney 05 and 06 is they were lucky to face a team without too much firepower.

Its amazing to think that sydney or westcost could have gone back to back and been venerated but were the most average looking premiers for a while

 

[Hawkk]

For mine the thing about sydney 05 and 06 is they were lucky to face a team without too much firepower.

Its amazing to think that sydney or westcost could have gone back to back and been venerated but were the most average looking premiers for a while

The best thing about the squiggles is it shows how freo have improved over the year where hawthosn ahve been super consistent

Hawthorn 78 seems the most similar squiggle to hawthorn 2013

Fremantle 2013 have a bit of Sydney 2012 about it. Perhaps the only difference was the Swans became more attacking and defensive leading into the GF (shooting up the magic top right hand corner) whilst the Dockers have firmed up their attack partly at the expense of their defence (according to the worm at least)

I expect a very similar game to the 2012 GF! That means that if we kick at less than 50% we'll lose the game...

The sad thing about 2012 is that if the premiership decider was played in round 18 we would have won the premiership. From that Hawkins match onwards our trajectory skewed significantly. By contrast the 2013 Hawthorn squiggle, whilst far less dynamic is far more consistent is steadily tracking along the right trajectory.

This should all point to a fantastic GF made even closer by the weather conditions. Its game on!

 

[SJ]

The squiggle expects:
Hawthorn 92 Fremantle 79

Not bad.

 

[Hawkk]

I await the last squiggle update

I assume Hawthorn is probably now shadowing Brisbane 2001 and Fremantle a typical Ross Lyon Grand Final side?

 

[Pessimistic]

I'm not sure that makes a huge difference, but if you're adjusting for opposition, what you really want to look at is how defensive their opponents were, not just where they sat on the ladder. Freo did have a relatively soft draw, but playing two games against Adelaide (11th), for example, doesn't mean they had easy scoring opportunities, because Adelaide is above average defensively. (I have the Crows 6th-ish for defence; they are 7th for fewest Points Against.)

Then there's how Freo sent their B team to their "easiest" double game, against St Kilda, and lost it 112-41... I just don't think Freo's draw was a leg-up to their scoring.

Anyway, clearly Hawthorn is well ahead of Freo in attack; my point is just that Freo is close enough to a whole bunch of other teams to make it misleading to say their attack is only 12th best. "12th best" implies that it's significantly below average, when in fact it's not far off 4th or 5th best.

Squiggles aside, just looking at raw Points For during the H&A season, Freo is only 119 points short of 5th place. That is a reasonable but not huge margin. It's about the same as the gap between 12th and 13th, and between 1st and 2nd.

Below: Hawthorn in Band 1, Geelong and North in Band 2, and Freo + others in Band 3.

If hawthorns cup is placed where they are in this graph, the cups will look like two vees of ducks flying north for the winter, with the hawk being the lead duck

Maybe evirything led to yesterday

 

[Final Siren]

Premiers 2013: Hawthorn​

And here is the Top 4 chart updated:

Top 4 1993-2013 ​

The Dynamic Squiggle is here. I will probably mess with that over the off-season, though, so in the future it may not look exactly the same as the charts posted in this thread.

The Grand Final wasn't quite the cracking contest I expected, since Freo couldn't remember what the goals looked like. If they'd nailed some of those shots, maybe we would've had a truly great finish, with Hawthorn trailing and forced to break the game open. Ah well.

Thank you for following Squiggles 2013. May your off-season be brief, your draft picks fruitful, your trades foresighted, and your spuds delisted.

 

[Hawkk]

Brisbane Lions 2001 and Hawthorn 2013 are almost identical

Its no shot on Fremantle 2013 but will season 2013 be remembered as another season where the quasi Grand Final was played during Preliminary Final weekend?