Apologies if this has been answered before
How did you base your round 1 predictions for Wce and Brisbane in 1987?
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
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How did you base your round 1 predictions for Wce and Brisbane in 1987?
People talked about our draw too, until we beat Freo, and belted Sydney, & the Dogs, and every other bloody team that came to subi. Our draw ended up being on par with the other top 4 sides, pretty sure Hawks ended up being the easiest of the 4.
Hawthorn actually had / has a comparable record against the top 8 clubs then it did against the bottom 10 (cough, cough Port Adelaide)
Vs. top 8 opposition
7 wins, 3 losses (157%)
Vs. bottom 10 opposition
10 wins, 4 losses (159.72%)
So very glad Port Adelaide didnt sneak into the 8...
Had we played them in a SF they probably would have rolled us in straight sets (like Fremantle last year)...
In terms of the remaining contenders, their records against each other...
Hawthorn 3 wins, 1 loss (140.2%)
North Melbourne 2 wins, 2 losses (69%)
West Coast 2 wins, 3 losses (99%)
Fremantle 2 wins, 3 losses (90%)
- Fremantle and Hawthorn did not play home and away so Hawthorn's record is inflated
- West Coast (+2 wins) and North Melbourne (+2 wins) has improved considerably since mid season while Hawthorn (-1 win) and Fremantle (-3 wins) have dwindled
Since then - ignoring the "rest game" vs. the Tigers in Round 23:
W Fremantle (1st)
L Western Bulldogs (6th) - after 7 wins in a row
W Richmond (5th)
W Sydney (4th)
To be honest we've been mostly rubbish this season but currently we're in the best form we've displayed all year.
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Definitely played their best late. But weren't ever really bad. I'd break their season into three:
- Rounds 1-16: playing consistently like an 8th-or-thereabouts team
- Rounds 17-22: up a gear, playing consistently like a 4th-or-thereabouts team
- Rounds 23+: crazy time, hard to characterize. Dunno if it's fair to ignore the rest game but count the recovery game, but there's those two, with the latter being an unusually attacking, then Sydney last week being unusually defensive. Either way, two very good weeks when it counts.
Hypothetically if Fremantle defeated Hawthorn by 14 points what would that do for their HOMER and squiggle position?
Given how poorly they are rated and how strongly Hawthorn is rated I assume the impact would be significant?
Given how poorly they are rated and how strongly Hawthorn is rated I assume the impact would be significant?
- Aug 18, 2009
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HOMER is the rule that you always tip the home team. Nothing can change HOMER's mind about that. HOMER is simple but effective during non-Grand finals.
A 14-pt victory to Freo won't change either team's position much. Unless it's something like Freo 30-16 Hawthorn. That would.
To cause Hawthorn to drop down to West Coast 2006, we need a scoreline of Freo 200-20 Hawthorn. That would also be enough to move the Dockers into flag favouritism.
cryptor
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Not on Big Footy.
Fremantle average rank across seven ranking systems: 7.6
Hawthorn average rank across seven ranking systems: 1.4
West Coast average rank across seven ranking systems: 2.3
North average rank across seven ranking systems: 6.7
http://troywheatley.blogspot.com.au/
http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=aus2015
http://www.asapindex.com/formpredictor/rules/afl2015.html
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RatingsAndRankings/2015_SF
http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/afl-power-rankings-2015.1103957/
Hawthorn average rank across seven ranking systems: 1.4
West Coast average rank across seven ranking systems: 2.3
North average rank across seven ranking systems: 6.7
http://troywheatley.blogspot.com.au/
http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=aus2015
http://www.asapindex.com/formpredictor/rules/afl2015.html
http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/RatingsAndRankings/2015_SF
http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/afl-power-rankings-2015.1103957/
- Jun 13, 2007
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Well that settles it, Freo will win the flag.
But there are 2 factors you're forgetting...
1. They are Fremantle
2. Ross Lyon is coaching them
- May 28, 2013
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Wait - someone makes sense of Roby!!! That is the biggest thing I took out of your post.
Bigeasy
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Unlike West Coast that just had a soft draw all season. I looked at the teams you beat at home and just Lol, talk about soft.
Bigeasy
I'm here for the buffet
Roby's rankings are just biased bullshit. There's a reason it is now housed in Bay 13.
JaxsonB
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- Aug 10, 2015
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Soft draw all year? Puh-lease. Can't remember where I posted it, but it's in my post history somewhere - but anyway, if you add up the eventual ranks of all the teams WC and North played, North ended up getting a total of only 2 less than WC. What that effectively translates into is the equivalent of if our last game had been against Collingwood instead of St Kilda (that is, an almost insignificant amount of difference).
I can't find the article I initially read it in (I believe it was pre-finals), but ranking teams in that same way put the Eagles at the sixth hardest draw of the year if I'm not mistaken (which of course means North would have been <=5). So it's not like the two teams had easy draws comparative to the rest of the league either.
Of course, WC have a nice home ground advantage, but if you're trying to argue that that's what got us into the finals/second spot, I have to ask you, is our home ground advantage worth EIGHT goals? Because that's the closest any losing interstate team got prior to the finals.
Now, I certainly wouldn't claim the home ground advantage alone gives West Coast an 8 goal lead - more like the HGA gives them at least a couple goals on average, and then the good team that they are inflate the margin - but on average, their margin has been 47.6 pts more at home than away (Freo not included in the calcs as the venue is pretty much neutral). So even if you want to disregard the team skill, that's still less than what the closest away teams that lost got to.
Home ground advantage being the reason we got top 2, West Coast having a soft draw - I think you'll find that if you actually look at the stats, these claims aren't backed up by them.
Yep with company such as Mofra's Bottom 50 and the Diary of a Welching Flog.
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sonnywalters
Cancelled
So Ross Lyon has been at Freo since 2012. 4 years. And he has done nothing about getting another tall fwd to go alongside Pavlich. I do like his no nonsense and anti-mythology approach but you have to wonder about his intelligence on list mgt sometimes.
David king almost without fail has gone against power rankings premiership predictions every year. Calculate that into your little nut.
- May 4, 2013
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Roby is David King.
Well that would make sense as North have been on the bottom of the rankings for the last five years.
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