Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Pessimistic]

2015 will be looked on as a classic,,particularly if eagles play. I really hope I get the best possible seat in the ballot, usually I hope for the cheapest

 

[Final Siren]

To be fair, I've only been on BF a few weeks and I already know that Spoken is a die hard, head in the sand Freo supporter that couldn't see the negative stats that were painted on the wall.

In any case, as a stats man, a Squiggle man, and a blue-and-gold blood, just did a quick look to see what it would take for West Coast to enter Squiggle favouritism. As far as I can tell, they need a margin of about 5+ goals for Squiggle to move into at least 50/50 territory.

I checked it out: the Eagles need a 70-ish point win to draw level on the chart. But since Flagpole (which does the GF tip) favours attack, and the Hawks are significantly ahead there, West Coast need to beat North by around 90 points to become the GF tip.

 

[Final Siren]

Ah a bit like reverse engineering! But no it wouldnt work that way because there are other non-transparent variables and weighted averages that are used. The basic (and transparent) part of the formula would be the following algorithm:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * (TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE) + HOME ADVANTAGE

Which if im not mistaken is effectively what you've used (in interactive graph form!). However these numbers alone dont represent the changes in team offensive and defensive ratings as far as Im aware.

Which are the non-transparent parts? The whole thing is supposed to be transparent, so ask me about anything that's unclear.

 

[cryptor]

I checked it out: the Eagles need a 70-ish point win to draw level on the chart. But since Flagpole (which does the GF tip) favours attack, and the Hawks are significantly ahead there, West Coast need to beat North by around 90 points to become the GF tip.

West Coast could possibly be capable of that but I don't think anyone would expect them to do anything else but put the cue in the rack once it got out to 10 goals.

There'd be nothing to gain except momentum and confidence belting them by more. But it perhaps comes at the expense of unnecessary energy expenditure and maybe even becoming too confident to the point of complacency.

 

[Final Siren]

Fremantle will start 2016 as the squiggle's 9th ranked team! With a top-4 fixture, they'll be tipped to miss the finals.

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

Fremantle will start 2016 as the squiggle's 9th ranked team! With a top-4 fixture, they'll be tipped to miss the finals.

and with Pav and McPharlin retiring, it would be hard to suggest otherwise. Although i think the Subiaco home ground advantage will see them make the 8. Dogs, Swans to displace Freo from the top 4 for sure. In fact, if Bachar Houli didnt have a brainfart and kick down the middle to a 3 on 1, the Dockers would have finished 4th this season which would have more accurately reflected their rank amongst the top teams

 

[Hawkk]

and with Pav and McPharlin retiring, it would be hard to suggest otherwise. Although i think the Subiaco home ground advantage will see them make the 8. Dogs, Swans to displace Freo from the top 4 for sure. In fact, if Bachar Houli didnt have a brainfart and kick down the middle to a 3 on 1, the Dockers would have finished 4th this season which would have more accurately reflected their rank amongst the top teams

Not sold on the Swans. That trade ban has really impacted on their ability to replenish their list and evolve to meet the changing game.

The Dogs whilst impressive could be prone to a second year hangover.

The bolter as far as I'm concerned is Port Adelaide and its not even close.

2015 could be Ports 2006 circa Geelong

 

[Hawkk]

West Coast could possibly be capable of that but I don't think anyone would expect them to do anything else but put the cue in the rack once it got out to 10 goals.

There'd be nothing to gain except momentum and confidence belting them by more. But it perhaps comes at the expense of unnecessary energy expenditure and maybe even becoming too confident to the point of complacency.

Its definitely possible but I can't see north falling away to a 70 / 90 point loss - not with their recent history in PF's (and the 2012 EF humiliation at the hands of the Eagles)

For North a competitive outing is a must, another belting and it could take their sails out of the club.

That said perhaps the back 2 back 2 back elimination final run will take its toll and north will turn to shit?

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

Not sold on the Swans. That trade ban has really impacted on their ability to replenish their list and evolve to meet the changing game.

The Dogs whilst impressive could be prone to a second year hangover.

The bolter as far as I'm concerned is Port Adelaide and its not even close.

2015 could be Ports 2006 circa Geelong

Swans were quite unlucky with injuries. Almost beat Dockers at subi without Frankling, Parker, and Jack. Dogs get Liberatore back, so the only way for them is up. I forgot about Port Adelaide. They could be anything. They get back Polec, and probably a rocket up the arse for this years disappointing season.

Dont think Richmond will jump the dockers. North melbourne wont either IMO. Crows wont after losing Danger.

 

[cryptor]

Its definitely possible but I can't see north falling away to a 70 / 90 point loss - not with their recent history in PF's (and the 2012 EF humiliation at the hands of the Eagles)

For North a competitive outing is a must, another belting and it could take their sails out of the club.

That said perhaps the back 2 back 2 back elimination final run will take its toll and north will turn to shit?

I could just see West Coast breaking out of the blocks and having a 8-10 goal opening quarter before North Melbourne realise what hit them. I also wouldn't be surprised to see North be switched on from the start to prove everyone wrong (this year, last and the 2012 final) and they get a 4-6 goal jump on West Coast.

Will be interesting.

 

[utility]

Its definitely possible but I can't see north falling away to a 70 / 90 point loss - not with their recent history in PF's (and the 2012 EF humiliation at the hands of the Eagles)

For North a competitive outing is a must, another belting and it could take their sails out of the club.

That said perhaps the back 2 back 2 back elimination final run will take its toll and north will turn to shit?

North Melbourne are the anti-squiggle team, our results seem to be the least reliable of squiggle predictions. That's perhaps due to a big gap between our best and worst football.

Either way the Hawks are looking good for a three-peat.

 

[iluvparis]

Backs up what I said as the 2009 flag is just about the closest to Hawks of 2008. The other ones close (2001, 2012, 1997) were upsets too.

2009 WAS NOT AN UPSET

 

[Illinois Nazi]

2009 WAS NOT AN UPSET

Nick Riewoldt was upset

 

[utility]

2009 WAS NOT AN UPSET

 

[B4Bear]

2015 AFL Power Rankings Round 11
1 Gold Coast (+1)
2 Hawthorn (-1)
3 Bulldogs (-)
4 Sydney (+1)
5 Richmond (+1)
6 Adelaide (+1)
7 Geelong (+1)
8 West Coast (+1)
9 Fremantle (-5)
10 Port Adelaide (-)
11 Brisbane (-)
12 Essendon (-)
13 Kangaroos (-)
14 Carlton (+1)
15 GWS (-1)
16 Collingwood (-)
17 Melbourne (-)
18 St Kilda (-)


Current Season Forecast(improved formula or more like the old one was errenous)

1 Fremantle 17 5 0 130.6
2 Sydney 16 6 0 129.8
3 Hawthorn 15 7 0 141.1
4 West Coast 15 7 0 133.1
5 Richmond 14 8 0 117.6
6 Bulldogs 14 8 0 114.1
7 Adelaide 14 8 0 112.6
8 Geelong 13 9 0 110.9
9 Port Adelaide 11 11 0 101.1
10 Collingwood 10 12 0 96.1
11 GWS 10 12 0 92.9
12 North Melbourne 9 13 0 88.8
13 Essendon 9 13 0 88.7
14 Gold Coast 8 14 0 88.6
15 Melbourne 6 16 0 76.5
16 St Kilda 6 16 0 76.1
17 Carlton 5 17 0 75.9
18 Brisbane Lions 5 17 0 72.5

F1

Fremantle West Coast 9 points

Sydney Hawthorn 6 points

Richmond Geelong 30 points

Bulldogs Adelaide 15 points

F2

Fremantle Richmond 19 points

Sydney Bulldogs 18 points

F3

West Coast Sydney 5 points

Hawthorn Fremantle 50 points

F4

West Coast Hawthorn 30 points

Stop peddling your voodoo predictions on this thread.

If we wanted this crap we would be in the bay.

1/7 correctly tipped Roby, well done.

 

[Dipper]

Theres as many teams in the defensive zone beating those in the attcking zone as vice versa, and plenty of smashings where a team better in both attack and defence beats an inferior team.

It's pretty meaningless to just simply look at teams being more defensive or more attacking.

If you look at your drawings you'll see that most of the defensive victors are sitting in the south east east part of the quadrant and most of the attacking victors are sitting in the north north west part of their quadrant. That is to say that the defensive sides are relatively greater in defence than they are inferior in attack to their opponent and vice versa for the attacking victors.

It's absolutely logical that that would be the case. In fact a side that was north east of an opponent but only by a very small distance wouldnt be as hot a favourite that was placed NNW or SEE by a great physical distance.

So any victors from either the NWW quadrant or the SSE one are the ones worthy of remark, in a similar way to victors from the SW.

Really rather splitting it into 4 quadrants, it should be two halves, running diagonally from NW to SE, any club over that line should be favourites to win.

 

[WWSD]

I think the Western Bulldogs will be the one who surge up the squiggle next year. They'll have back Tom Liberatore, Clay Smith, Nathan Hrovat, Koby Stevens and Jason Johannisen. All five players missed the Elimination final with season ending injuries. It's scary how deep the Dogs midfield will be next year if they have a fit & healthy list.

 

[Roby]

Stop peddling your voodoo predictions on this thread.

If we wanted this crap we would be in the bay.

1/7 correctly tipped Roby, well done.

What?

 

[Xtreme]

Squiggle now saying Hawks to win by 12

 

[Hawkk]

While we look forward to Final Siren 's all important GF tips I thought I'd look at the last 15 OFFDEF4G-95:79 GF tips and compare it against the actual outcome...

2015 - TBC (Hawks by 12 pts, 94-82)
2014 - Hawks 137 def Sydney 74 (Hawks by 7 pts)
2013 - Hawks 77 def Fremantle 62 (Hawks by 14 pts)
2012 - Swans 91 def Hawks 81 (Hawks by 12 pts)
2011 - Cats 119 def Pies 81 (Pies by 14 pts)
2010 Replay - Pies 108 def Saints 52 (Pies by 12 pts)
2010 - Pies 68 drew with Saints 68 (Pies by 15 pts)
2009 - Cats 80 def Saints 68 (Saints by 20 pts)
2008 - Hawks 115 def Cats 89 (Cats by 29 pts)
2007 - Cats 163 def Port Adelaide 44 (Cats by 29 pts)
2006 - Eagles 85 def Swans 84 (Swans by 8 pts)
2005 - Swans 58 def Eagles 54 (Swans by 25 pts)
2004 - Port Adelaide 113 def Brisbane Lions 73 (Power by 11 pts)
2003 - Brisbane Lions 134 def Pies 84 pts (Lions by 17 pts)
2002 - Brisbane Lions 75 def Pies 66 (Lions by 13 pts)
2001 - Brisbane Lions 108 def Essendon 82 (Bombers by 14 pts)
2000 - Essendon 135 def Melbourne 75 (Bombers by 37 pts)

66% success rate.

Don't be too dismayed Eagle fans, the 2012 GF tip (according to this algorithm) was Hawks by 12 pts and we know how that ended up...

 

[Final Siren]

While we look forward to Final Siren 's all important GF tips I thought I'd look at the last 15 OFFDEF4G-95:79 GF tips and compare it against the actual outcome...

2015 - TBC (Hawks by 12 pts, 94-82)
2014 - Hawks 137 def Sydney 74 (Hawks by 7 pts)
2013 - Hawks 77 def Fremantle 62 (Hawks by 14 pts)
2012 - Swans 91 def Hawks 81 (Hawks by 12 pts)
2011 - Cats 119 def Pies 81 (Pies by 14 pts)
2010 Replay - Pies 108 def Saints 52 (Pies by 12 pts)
2010 - Pies 68 drew with Saints 68 (Pies by 15 pts)
2009 - Cats 80 def Saints 68 (Saints by 20 pts)
2008 - Hawks 115 def Cats 89 (Cats by 29 pts)
2007 - Cats 163 def Port Adelaide 44 (Cats by 29 pts)
2006 - Eagles 85 def Swans 84 (Swans by 8 pts)
2005 - Swans 58 def Eagles 54 (Swans by 25 pts)
2004 - Port Adelaide 113 def Brisbane Lions 73 (Power by 11 pts)
2003 - Brisbane Lions 134 def Pies 84 pts (Lions by 17 pts)
2002 - Brisbane Lions 75 def Pies 66 (Lions by 13 pts)
2001 - Brisbane Lions 108 def Essendon 82 (Bombers by 14 pts)
2000 - Essendon 135 def Melbourne 75 (Bombers by 37 pts)

66% success rate.

Don't be too dismayed Eagle fans, the 2012 GF tip (according to this algorithm) was Hawks by 12 pts and we know how that ended up...

Those aren't Flagpole tips (a.k.a OFFDEF4G-95:79); that's the regular squiggle, which indeed hasn't been crash-hot in Grand Finals. I don't know why, since there aren't enough Grand Finals to be sure about anything, but that poor record is why I started using a different algorithm for tipping GFs.

Last year, I used OFFDEF-75, which is like the regular squiggle but with no home advantage and a heavy bias towards recent results. It's 12-3 over the period you mention, but it got last year wrong, a bad one to miss since the Hawks won by 10 goals. Flagpole has the same record over the same period, but got 2014 right and 2012 wrong, and is a little better over 20 years. It's also better at picking premiers earlier in the season, at picking margins, and at regular tipping. So that's why I switched.

I'll post more about flagpole later.

 

[Richo83]

Plus, while some tipped Hawthorn last year, hardly anyone predicted a blowout (maybe roby predicted it? Can't remember, but he gets stuff wrong too). Like how many people expected Geelong to win the 2007 grand final by 20 goals, or for Hawthorn to win the 2008 grand final? Hardly anyone.

 

[SJ]

Plus, while some tipped Hawthorn last year, hardly anyone predicted a blowout (maybe roby predicted it? Can't remember, but he gets stuff wrong too). Like how many people expected Geelong to win the 2007 grand final by 20 goals, or for Hawthorn to win the 2008 grand final? Hardly anyone.

There have been a lot of upsets in the past decade that have been hard to forecast even with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[Hawkk]

Those aren't Flagpole tips (a.k.a OFFDEF4G-95:79); that's the regular squiggle, which indeed hasn't been crash-hot in Grand Finals. I don't know why, since there aren't enough Grand Finals to be sure about anything, but that poor record is why I started using a different algorithm for tipping GFs.

Last year, I used OFFDEF-75, which is like the regular squiggle but with no home advantage and a heavy bias towards recent results. It's 12-3 over the period you mention, but it got last year wrong, a bad one to miss since the Hawks won by 10 goals. Flagpole has the same record over the same period, but got 2014 right and 2012 wrong, and is a little better over 20 years. It's also better at picking premiers earlier in the season, at picking margins, and at regular tipping. So that's why I switched.

I'll post more about flagpole later.

So just to clarify the only Grand Final predictor that uses OFFDEF4G-95:79 is the 2015 tip?

 

[Paul Kersey]

Plus, while some tipped Hawthorn last year, hardly anyone predicted a blowout (maybe roby predicted it? Can't remember, but he gets stuff wrong too). Like how many people expected Geelong to win the 2007 grand final by 20 goals, or for Hawthorn to win the 2008 grand final? Hardly anyone.

I predicted Hawthorn by four goals last year. Could not believe what happened.