Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[cryptor]

Can u please plot melb 2014 v hawks 1989. Separate thread with some suggesting melb would win...

Their respective placements on the graph are relative to their performances against teams they've actually played against. I'm doubting it would be an exercise that would prove anything.

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Surely there is some way they can be ranked comparatively.

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

Surely there is some way they can be ranked comparatively.

sure, I'll go get my time-machine back from the government and we'll run the game next week

 

[Leeda]

Handball the problem.. it always goes somewhere else. Um just trying to think of someone else...

 

[Final Siren]

Surely there is some way they can be ranked comparatively.

I can't think of one. You can compare seasons in terms of how attacking or defensive they are. You can compare teams from different years in terms of how they performed relative to their field. You can even do things like compare Top 4 from different years (like Essendon 2000 vs Geelong 2011) to judge whether it was particularly strong or weak, compared to the average team that year. But you can't judge the quality of the entire league as a whole, because teams are scored relative to one another.

The squiggle will only tell you that Hawthorn were a lot better than the typical 1989 team and Melbourne were a lot worse than the typical 2014 team.

 

[nameless]

Did a 50% luck - had West Coast finishing 16th and North winning the Flag - what a horrible alternate reality - so I quickly opened another door and it had us beating the Bulldogs in the GF.

 

[Final Siren]

Can you give us a little more detail about the Alternate Reality where Melbourne wins the flag?

I found one with 30% luck! That's almost credible. It was the sole Melbourne flag in 25,000 simulations.

A series of unlikely coincidences conspire to hand the Demons the flag:

• Melbourne squeak into 8th spot with 11 wins and a terrible percentage.
• They face bunny sides Geelong and Richmond in the first two weeks of the finals and win by 2 and 17 points respectively.
  
• A 1-pt win after extra time in a horrendous Roos prelim slogfest, defeating Port Adelaide 30-29. Maybe it was raining.
• Hawthorn have the mother of all off days for the GF (maybe they celebrated too early), going down to Melbourne by three goals.

 

[beta_condition]

I found one with 30% luck! That's almost credible. It was the sole Melbourne flag in 25,000 simulations.

A series of unlikely coincidences conspire to hand the Demons the flag:

• Melbourne squeak into 8th spot with 11 wins and a terrible percentage.
• They face bunny sides Geelong and Richmond in the first two weeks of the finals and win by 2 and 17 points respectively.
  
• A 1-pt win after extra time in a horrendous Roos prelim slogfest, defeating Port Adelaide 30-29. Maybe it was raining.
• Hawthorn have the mother of all off days for the GF (maybe they celebrated too early), going down to Melbourne by three goals.

I'm not quite sure how i'd accept that/ deal with it...... maybe that did happened and I have accepted the reality of the situation

 

[d33my]

It was the sole Melbourne flag in 25,000 simulations.

Geez that's depressing haha. But also impressive.

I'll take it.

 

[kane249]

I found one with 30% luck! That's almost credible. It was the sole Melbourne flag in 25,000 simulations.

Geez that's depressing haha. But also impressive.

I'll take it.

 

[Inferno]

Did 2007 for the first time on 10% luck and had Port Adelaide drop an amazing 11 (!!!) positions and finish in the bottom 4, and the Cats barely squeaking by the Crows in the GF after beating them by 55 in the QF!

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2007.html?door=2605440952&luck=10&year=2007

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Wow!
http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2011.html?door=3338818902&luck=57&year=2011

 

[beta_condition]

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2011.html?door=3038684874&luck=57&year=2011

Now that be a grandfinal for the ages.

 

[TipBetPro]

Yes your right... I completely fruited that up, looked at the wrong link and text from a blog post of mine from last year. The Hawks-20 was Robert from AFL Predictions.

But here is another - TipBetPro: Hawks by 45 to destroy us all.

This was fun to google myself! Cheers for the plug FootyMaths

 

[Infamy]

Will the squiggle take into account the CAS findings today?

 

[sverik25]

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2011.html?door=3038684874&luck=57&year=2011

Now that be a grandfinal for the ages.

I like this one.

 

[Rotayjay]

Will the squiggle take into account the CAS findings today?

I doubt it. It would be as though 12 Essendon players copped season-ending injuries.

 

[Final Siren]

Will the squiggle take into account the CAS findings today?

Nope, but you can drag teams into new positions on the live squiggle and click RECALCULATE to get a new ladder prediction. When I drag Essendon down to GWS 2013 levels, they go from 3rd last to bottom, but no-one above them changes ladder position.

The main beneficiaries are probably Richmond & Geelong, who play the Bombers twice. They each get a boost of around 3 percentage points, and are likely to be competing for spots where that could make a difference.

If Port Adelaide are negatively affected, that would also be good for teams around the same level, which at the moment looks most likely to be Richmond, North Melbourne, and Sydney.

And the final-round game Essendon vs Carlton could be a spoon decider!

 

[Oneiros]

Nope, but you can drag teams into new positions on the live squiggle and click RECALCULATE to get a new ladder prediction. When I drag Essendon down to GWS 2013 levels, they go from 3rd last to bottom, but no-one above them changes ladder position.

The main beneficiaries are probably Richmond & Geelong, who play the Bombers twice. They each get a boost of around 3 percentage points, and are likely to be competing for spots where that could make a difference.

If Port Adelaide are negatively affected, that would also be good for teams around the same level, which at the moment looks most likely to be Richmond, North Melbourne, and Sydney.

And the final-round game Essendon vs Carlton could be a spoon decider!

Hawthorn 87-80 West Coast, GF 2016

*shudders*

Edit: Essendon supporters better hope those tips aren't on the money, some pretty serious bakings being predicted.

 

[Gydafud]

Will the start positions of the 2016 season be adjusted before season start at all, or are they locked in now until Round 1? Not sure on your usual pre-season setup.

 

[cryptor]

Will the start positions of the 2016 season be adjusted before season start at all, or are they locked in now until Round 1? Not sure on your usual pre-season setup.

It's as is. Changes to list strength will be picked up in the results of games and teams will immediately start trending towards their "true" position.

 

[AlibiMonday]

It's as is. Changes to list strength will be picked up in the results of games and teams will immediately start trending towards their "true" position.

It will be interesting to see how many rounds the shock will take to dilute. Every match will have some kind of residual influence by Round 4, with only 2 games (Hawthorn v St.Kilda and Adelaide v Sydney) unaffected in Round 3.

The annoyance is the reverse shock will happen all again next year when all the players come back

 

[Gralin]

It will be interesting to see how many rounds the shock will take to dilute. Every match will have some kind of residual influence by Round 4, with only 2 games (Hawthorn v St.Kilda and Adelaide v Sydney) unaffected in Round 3.

The annoyance is the reverse shock will happen all again next year when all the players come back

Assuming they all come back and at the same club

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

I know you don't condone gambling at all Final Siren, but I was wondering if you have ever determined if you could actually make money via betting on the squiggle. And if so, how much you could make?
Purely for curiosity, but I think it would be cool to see

 

[Yuley95]

I know you don't condone gambling at all Final Siren, but I was wondering if you have ever determined if you could actually make money via betting on the squiggle. And if so, how much you could make?
Purely for curiosity, but I think it would be cool to see

Doesn't it simply depend on how much you bet? And when you get the odds?

I don't bet either but it seems to me that you best shot would be to wait till at least half the season was done with if going by the squiggle to allow enough new data after player movements etc


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk