Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[catstorm]

When do the round 4 predictions come out? The Adelaide v Sydney one will be interesting.

You can already check, go into forecast and click home and away.

Adelaide 94 defeat Sydney 84

 

[Billy ray]

Suns doing a nice little jig up, and to the right.
Hopefully another strong offensive week this week at Brisbane, and then a defensive effort v north....

 

[The Swans Blog]

Heh, might be something wrong with the Squiggles, predicting Ninthmond to beat Swans in round 8 even though the teams are sort of at opposite ends of the ladder.

 

[beert]

Heh, might be something wrong with the Squiggles, predicting Ninthmond to beat Swans in round 8 even though the teams are sort of at opposite ends of the ladder.

The squiggle knows how we normally play against Richmond.

 

[SwampCreature]

The squiggle knows how we normally play against Richmond.

You don't need a science degree to do that.

 

[Iron]

You can already check, go into forecast and click home and away.

Adelaide 94 defeat Sydney 84

I feel the reverse is more likely. If Sydney can keep us below 100 it's quite unlikely we'll win.

 

[Final Siren]

Is there way to see an animated flagpole to see what the movement on the poles is?

No. But that would be cool.

 

[momentbymoment]

A question.
If Sydney limits Adelaide to less than 94, does that mean we slide right? And if we score more than 84 do we slide up? Do we need to win to slide in a positive way?

Just discovered the squiggle and no longer give a damn about the game itself. Just want to slide into those trophies )

 

[Gydafud]

No. But that would be cool.

Just similar with your post-round gif of the movement, if possible.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

That ladder predictor

Don't worry. Richmond won't finish 9th. They aren't good enough.

I reckon the dees will knock the pies off this week, what's the predictor from the squiggle Siren?

 

[beert]

A question.
If Sydney limits Adelaide to less than 94, does that mean we slide right? And if we score more than 84 do we slide up? Do we need to win to slide in a positive way?

Just discovered the squiggle and no longer give a damn about the game itself. Just want to slide into those trophies )

Correct. Position on the squiggle graph is independent of whether you win or lose. To slide up and right you need to score more than expected and keep your opponent to a lower score thank expected. That's normally associated with winning, but it doesn't have to be.

For example, Carlton lost to Richmond 92 to 83 in round 1 and move up and right because the squiggle thought they would be smashed by 50.

PS. Final Siren - is it possible to get historic tips, rather than just margins?

 

[Headless]

Don't worry. Richmond won't finish 9th. They aren't good enough.

I reckon the dees will knock the pies off this week, what's the predictor from the squiggle Siren?

Collingwood 94 def. Melbourne 84.

 

[The Lemon]

dat finals predictor (Y)

 

[J_Moore]

Very late to this thread and to Roby's power rankings. What was the big fellas reaction when something actually good like this came along?

 

[tazaa]

Very late to this thread and to Roby's power rankings. What was the big fellas reaction when something actually good like this came along?

He posted in the back half of last year I think. The squiggle has been going for 3 years I believe now, highlighting his ignorance and shallowness.
Basically he tried to do a song and dance, and the majority of posters in here ignored him and he nicked off.

 

[Hawkies]

Feel sorry for freo fans

 

[The Swans Blog]

I feel that Squiggles drastically overrated Adelaide and underrates Sydney. Now I might be biased, but copping a bit of a hiding in round 1 shouldn't have them so far north. Sure, they schooled teams the last 2 weeks, especially Port, but I feel that both Port and Richmond are overrated from last season. Both teams should be closer to Melbourne/Collingwood area, while Adelaide closer to North.

I know how the squiggles works through regression, but just feels that some positions are a little out of whack. But we know that squiggles loves a good thrashing, especially when one team is kept to a low score.

 

[Tas]

I feel that Squiggles drastically overrated Adelaide and underrates Sydney. Now I might be biased, but copping a bit of a hiding in round 1 shouldn't have them so far north. Sure, they schooled teams the last 2 weeks, especially Port, but I feel that both Port and Richmond are overrated from last season. Both teams should be closer to Melbourne/Collingwood area, while Adelaide closer to North.

I know how the squiggles works through regression, but just feels that some positions are a little out of whack. But we know that squiggles loves a good thrashing, especially when one team is kept to a low score.

I don't think a 10 point win was a hiding in Rd1, they actually played very well and with a bit more composure could have got over the line.

I am not sure about other teams but we have had Crows, Lions and Dees who have all thrown everything at us in the first three rounds, there are probably factors that squiggle doesn't account for like very hot humid conditions in Brisvegas, typhoon-like conditions in Tasmania or teams bouncing back from a previous week embarrassment.

I'm happy to fly under the radar.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I don't think a 10 point win was a hiding in Rd1, they actually played very well and with a bit more composure could have got over the line.

I am not sure about other teams but we have had Crows, Lions and Dees who have all thrown everything at us in the first three rounds, there are probably factors that squiggle doesn't account for like very hot humid conditions in Brisvegas, typhoon-like conditions in Tasmania or teams bouncing back from a previous week embarrassment.

I'm happy to fly under the radar.

I didn't suggest North were under the radar, I suggested that Squiggles has them pegged.

 

[1990crow]

I feel that Squiggles drastically overrated Adelaide and underrates Sydney. Now I might be biased, but copping a bit of a hiding in round 1 shouldn't have them so far north. Sure, they schooled teams the last 2 weeks, especially Port, but I feel that both Port and Richmond are overrated from last season. Both teams should be closer to Melbourne/Collingwood area, while Adelaide closer to North.

I know how the squiggles works through regression, but just feels that some positions are a little out of whack. But we know that squiggles loves a good thrashing, especially when one team is kept to a low score.

Might be biased?

 

[Rotayjay]

I feel that Squiggles drastically overrated Adelaide and underrates Sydney. Now I might be biased, but copping a bit of a hiding in round 1 shouldn't have them so far north. Sure, they schooled teams the last 2 weeks, especially Port, but I feel that both Port and Richmond are overrated from last season. Both teams should be closer to Melbourne/Collingwood area, while Adelaide closer to North.

I know how the squiggles works through regression, but just feels that some positions are a little out of whack. But we know that squiggles loves a good thrashing, especially when one team is kept to a low score.

Squiggle says: Hawthorn are still the team to beat.

It's not that Squiggle completely disregards defensive teams, but history shows that a quality attack is more important to winning the premiership. Sydney's two flags are clearly the outliers - they are the only club to win the premiership with a relatively modest attack in the last 20 years.

 

[crocsta]

I love the squiggle. I assume hat as the premiers would have won at least their last three games of the year, they move quite a bit at the end.

it might be interesting to have a version that shows the premiership cups as the position of the eventual premiers at the same corresponding round e.g. Show where hawks after round 3 last year.

We know where we're trying to end up with squiggle but would be interesting to see how past premiers were placed at similar time of season.

 

[Pessimistic]

Squiggle says: Hawthorn are still the team to beat.

It's not that Squiggle completely disregards defensive teams, but history shows that a quality attack is more important to winning the premiership. Sydney's two flags are clearly the outliers - they are the only club to win the premiership with a relatively modest attack in the last 20 years.

Yes, but then I remeber they have the best attack money can buy? Is it good value for the afl to keep parking goal kings up there?

 

[The Swans Blog]

Might be biased?

Merely an observation, since Adelaide were pretty shit last year, but flogged teams worse than them.

Squiggle says: Hawthorn are still the team to beat.

It's not that Squiggle completely disregards defensive teams, but history shows that a quality attack is more important to winning the premiership. Sydney's two flags are clearly the outliers - they are the only club to win the premiership with a relatively modest attack in the last 20 years.

I think that you'll find that the Swans will creep probably up and left throughout the season and move more sharply to the right and sit close to the premierships. Their game plan is far more attacking even though they lack the pace that some teams have.

3rd best attack (12 less scored than 1st Crows) and 2nd best defence says something. Swans have conceded almost 100 points less than Adelaide, which is why I say that Adelaide is overrated on the Squiggles, simply based on the ladder stats. While you can disregard the ladder positions with consideration to strength of opponent, Collingwood were almost favourites and the Swans were only warm favourites against GWS.

To put it into perspective, the Dogs had 250% last round, but have 170% this round. Swans have conceded 25 more points, but have also scored 71 more. That's almost 25 points difference between games (8.3 points more conceded, 23.7 points more scored). 3 goals difference per game. That's just the Dogs vs Swans. With the crows, they score 4 more points per game, but concede 31 more. That's pretty close to a 5 goal difference per game.

Which is what my point was about, that both teams are scoring heavily, but Crows are conceding a heap compared to Swans, Dogs & Suns, which are the best 3 defences. Suns & Dogs have beaten Fremantle and make them look pretty shit in the mean time.

 

[FyfeToAdelaide]

Merely an observation, since Adelaide were pretty shit last year, but flogged teams worse than them.



I think that you'll find that the Swans will creep probably up and left throughout the season and move more sharply to the right and sit close to the premierships. Their game plan is far more attacking even though they lack the pace that some teams have.

3rd best attack (12 less scored than 1st Crows) and 2nd best defence says something. Swans have conceded almost 100 points less than Adelaide, which is why I say that Adelaide is overrated on the Squiggles, simply based on the ladder stats. While you can disregard the ladder positions with consideration to strength of opponent, Collingwood were almost favourites and the Swans were only warm favourites against GWS.

To put it into perspective, the Dogs had 250% last round, but have 170% this round. Swans have conceded 25 more points, but have also scored 71 more. That's almost 25 points difference between games (8.3 points more conceded, 23.7 points more scored). 3 goals difference per game. That's just the Dogs vs Swans. With the crows, they score 4 more points per game, but concede 31 more. That's pretty close to a 5 goal difference per game.

Which is what my point was about, that both teams are scoring heavily, but Crows are conceding a heap compared to Swans, Dogs & Suns, which are the best 3 defences. Suns & Dogs have beaten Fremantle and make them look pretty shit in the mean time.

Adelaide, 2 away games to last years finalists and a home game of a showdown vs sydney 2 home games against coll and GWS and an away game against carlton.. How am i getting the impression you're rating sydneys wins higher?

You state Crows were bad last year which is stupid, but then you claim that the win over collingwood was big due to them being almost favourites, what made them almost favourites? niether team had form going into the game due to it being the first game. Collingwood have shown to be not that great so far, the final score in the Crows v Richmond game flattered Richmond in that game.