So Sydney's losing to Hawthorn then?
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Red Crow
Modrarator
Why don't you just put "I ****ing hate Adelaide and think they're the shittest team of all time" in your sig? It would save you a lot of time.
About 0.017%
- Aug 18, 2009
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Pretty low!
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No worries, enjoy.
Trolling much? Never said any of what you said. I said that Squiggles overrates them.
- Aug 18, 2009
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I dunno if this is the best way to do it, but I plotted tip accuracy by grouping similar predicted margins from 2000-2016 into 30-game buckets and then laying a quadratic regression line over them:
So this only hits 100% when the predicted margin is 88 points. Which is rare. So upsets are considered possible in the vast majority of games.
iluvparis
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Nice graph FS! So this says for example that the closest 30 games have a hit rate of around 65% in terms of picking the winner?
- Oct 26, 2012
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This table is a perfect example of just how unlikely it was that the top 5 teams were going to win all of their remaining 4 games.
The chance of the top 4 teams all winning this week is just over 35% and 3 of the top 4 are playing teams outside the 8!
Millky95
Starchild > You
Very likely. Or we'll lose to Richmond like always
Change Adelaide to "any team above Sydney on the Squiggle" and you'd be more accurate.
I honestly think, I'd rather play Geelong than Hawks (yes, 2014 PTSD) and I think given past form, Adelaide fans would rather play Hawks than Geelong in the first round of finals
- Oct 26, 2012
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Based on this year's form, I'd think most Sydney supporters would prefer to play Geelong and most Adelaide supporters would prefer to play Hawthorn.Very likely. Or we'll lose to Richmond like always
Change Adelaide to "any team above Sydney on the Squiggle" and you'd be more accurate.
I honestly think, I'd rather play Geelong than Hawks (yes, 2014 PTSD) and I think given past form, Adelaide fans would rather play Hawks than Geelong in the first round of finals
If Swans and Crows finish first and second maybe they can ask the AFL to do a swapsies!
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Do we have round 22 squiggle?
Millky95
Starchild > You
Adelaide 8 -> 2
Brisbane 15 -> 17
Carlton 18 -> 14
Collingwood 11 -> 10
Essendon 17 -> 18
Fremantle 9 -> 16
Geelong 10 -> 5
Gold Coast 16 -> 15
GWS 12 -> 3
Hawthorn 1 -> 4
Melbourne 13 -> 11
North Melbourne 5 -> 8
Port Adelaide 6 -> 9
Richmond 3 -> 13
St.Kilda 14 -> 12
Sydney 4 -> 1
West Coast 2 -> 6
Western Bulldogs 7 -> 7
I'm a week early before finals but I was bored.
How about Melbourne does everyone a favour and beats Geelong?Based on this year's form, I'd think most Sydney supporters would prefer to play Geelong and most Adelaide supporters would prefer to play Hawthorn.
If Swans and Crows finish first and second maybe they can ask the AFL to do a swapsies!
GWS finishes 4th, and then knocks the cats out in the semi-finals (or even better, North does in the elimination final).
Hawthorn, knowing they can't beat Adelaide fairly at AO resort to their usual sniping, resulting in suspensions for half a dozen players. They still lose, and then are eliminated by west coast in the semi.
Problem solved - we don't play Geelong, and Sydney don't play Hawthorn.
... unfortunately I doubt any the above will happen. That being said, I think we're every chance of beating Geelong in a final at AO - it would be tough, no doubt, but that's the point of finals.
SJ
Premium Platinum
Adelaide would go in favourites.
Yep - rightfully so. However, the two games against Geelong this year have been Adelaide's worst two by a street.
How much of that was self-inflicted, vs. the pressure being brought by Geelong remains to be seen. I will say that I've never seen so many simple errors made by this crows team (seemingly under no pressure - just missing targets) as in the first game at AO.
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Well the second time was a little self inflicted in that the cats did exactly the same thing to us at Kardinia as they did the first time at AO yet we didn't learn. Ie they put immense pressure on us in the midfield causing us to bomb long to their spare man in defence. Over and over again.
Can we adjust third time around?
Also need to question whether Geelong can bring that same intensity third time around - they've been inconsistent this year.
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What's with all this heretical optimism? Geelong beat us twice in the minor round, and are going to beat us in finals. My psychological defence mechanism has already been fully activated.
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That's right, yep. 20/30 tips correct in that bucket.
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Round 22, 2016
Animated!
That loud KER-CLACK you heard on the weekend was Sydney locking up top spot. Also possibly NicNat's knee exploding. They both happened around the same time. But that should do it for Sydney, who are surely too good for Richmond in the final round, since it actually counts this year, and far ahead enough on percentage to stave off anything short of record-breaking thumpings from Adelaide and Geelong.
Likewise, the Crows should hold 2nd spot, although their task is more challenging, since it involves West Coast rather than the Tigers. The Cats could catch them on percentage if they belt Melbourne by 100 points or so while the Crows only squeeze home, but still, that looks pretty safe.
Then the final ladder will look like this:
Potential horror for Hawthorn, with a loss to Collingwood likely to bump them out of the top 4. In fact, they could slide from 1st last week to 6th next week, which would be quite the journey. The Hawks have a long strip of potential finishing positions:
The Giants are also hard to place right now, since their game against North is no gimme, and could move pretty far in either direction if they get the right results around them.
Melbourne were always a long shot for the top 8, but blew it on the weekend, handing 9th place to the Saints. Although it is actually possible for St Kilda to make finals: I ran 25,000 sims and they snuck in once. So that's kind of tantalizing. But the other 24,999 times, North got through.
Flagpole! GWS gets a lot of credit for a 92-point smashing of Fremantle
Right now, you'd definitely call a Sydney-Adelaide Grand Final, with those teams not only in the best form, but also, with home finals, facing the easiest run.
Live squiggling!
P.S. Special mention for Dwayne Russell this week, who at the end of the Adelaide/Port game was shouting about how the Crows could pinch top spot on percentage. Yeah, if they kicked 10 goals in three minutes. NICE MATHS DWAYNE.
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Derwayne Russell
Crankyhawk
Hall of Famer
So win by less vs Richmond than Adelaide beat WCE and you should get your wish.Very likely. Or we'll lose to Richmond like always
Change Adelaide to "any team above Sydney on the Squiggle" and you'd be more accurate.
I honestly think, I'd rather play Geelong than Hawks (yes, 2014 PTSD) and I think given past form, Adelaide fans would rather play Hawks than Geelong in the first round of finals
I see that north is rated a better flag prospect than the dogs... interesting
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